Bracketology

[Goon]

they need to publish a bracketology for dummies.

[HeidiSioux62]

they need to publish a bracketology for dummies.

I hear that. Try as I may, I just can't keep it straight.

[Goon]

I hear that. Try as I may, I just can't keep it straight.

I am not good at math...

[farce poobah]

So as of Saturday AM, we're sitting T-5th in the Pairwise.

I think we have a great chance to get a #1 seed. In fact, my preferred scenario is for CC to get a #1 seed AND UND to get a #1. That way we don't get to face CC on their home ice where they are unbeaten. Send UND anywhere else, PLEASE. Also on my wish list is for Wisconsin to not qualify OR qualify as a #4 if the Sioux are a #1 - that way we won't get sent to Madison to play the Badgers on their home ice.

Here's one man's opinion of what has to happen for UND to get a #1 seed:

1) Raise the RPI to over .59.

For that to happen, UND needs to win 7 of 8 remaining regular season (6 of those at home!), win the 1st round WCHA, and win a game at the WCHA FF. Using the SS.com calculations (thanks guys!) and my basic excel skills, that gets us to .59.

2) New Hampshire needs to lose. A) Either drop 2 to BC, or B) lose a couple other games. If they were to lose too much, it would HURT the Sioux because we played them twice and all their wins give us points.

3) We need to sweep Denver, OR they need to lose a couple other games. (We're narrowly ahead today.)

There's lot of other possibilities for getting a #1, but that is the most likely.

4) Alternatively, even if Denver wins, we may pass Miami if they lose 2 games of their remaining. Their RPI plummets if they lose to a CCHA cupcake like Western Michigan.

5) OR, if Michigan were to lose tonight and get swept by Michigan State, that would drop them below UND. (If they

6) If UND were to play CC in the WCHA's, that would be critical because it gives us a chance to flip that comparison that is otherwise out of reach.

[stickboy1956]

So as of Saturday AM, we're sitting T-5th in the Pairwise.

I think we have a great chance to get a #1 seed. In fact, my preferred scenario is for CC to get a #1 seed AND UND to get a #1. That way we don't get to face CC on their home ice where they are unbeaten. Send UND anywhere else, PLEASE. Also on my wish list is for Wisconsin to not qualify OR qualify as a #4 if the Sioux are a #1 - that way we won't get sent to Madison to play the Badgers on their home ice.

Here's one man's opinion of what has to happen for UND to get a #1 seed:

1) Raise the RPI to over .59.

For that to happen, UND needs to win 7 of 8 remaining regular season (6 of those at home!), win the 1st round WCHA, and win a game at the WCHA FF. Using the SS.com calculations (thanks guys!) and my basic excel skills, that gets us to .59.

2) New Hampshire needs to lose. A) Either drop 2 to BC, or B) lose a couple other games. If they were to lose too much, it would HURT the Sioux because we played them twice and all their wins give us points.

3) We need to sweep Denver, OR they need to lose a couple other games. (We're narrowly ahead today.)

There's lot of other possibilities for getting a #1, but that is the most likely.

4) Alternatively, even if Denver wins, we may pass Miami if they lose 2 games of their remaining. Their RPI plummets if they lose to a CCHA cupcake like Western Michigan.

5) OR, if Michigan were to lose tonight and get swept by Michigan State, that would drop them below UND. (If they

6) If UND were to play CC in the WCHA's, that would be critical because it gives us a chance to flip that comparison that is otherwise out of reach.

NH needs to lose to TUCs - this would help us win the TUC battle with them and flip the comparison to us.

Remember - RPI is only on factor in the PWR comparison - and strength of schedule is not as important this year as it has been in the past.

[HeidiSioux62]

NH needs to lose to TUCs - this would help us win the TUC battle with them and flip the comparison to us.

Remember - RPI is only on factor in the PWR comparison - and strength of schedule is not as important this year as it has been in the past.

If strength of schedule was still in play the WCHA would have the top 10 spots. OK, maybe not the top 10, but a lot.

[farce poobah]

If strength of schedule was still in play the WCHA would have the top 10 spots. OK, maybe not the top 10, but a lot.

Strength of schedule is definitely coming into play - the winning percentages of top WCHA teams are lower than others, but their SOS (opponents winning percentage and opponents' opponents winning percentage) are what raises us up. In other words, all those nonconference wins for WCHA.

Stickboy, you are correct. My point was that we need to beat these teams on RPI if we are to have a chance at getting the Pairwise comparisons to flip. If our RPI is high enough, AND they lose a few games, then we can get a #1 seed.

[siouxweet]

I just hopre our Saturday night collapse against UNH won't come back and haunt us by preventing us from getting a 1 seed and at this point in time it is.

[siouxweet]

I think when it's all said and the the top seeds for the tournament will be:

1.Michigan in Madison

2. New Hampshire in Worcester

3. CC in Colorado Springs

4.UND or Miami in Albany

5.UND or Miami as the top 2 seed

[Goon]

If strength of schedule was still in play the WCHA would have the top 10 spots. OK, maybe not the top 10, but a lot.

Don't tell the CCHA boys that though.

[farce poobah]

I just hopre our Saturday night collapse against UNH won't come back and haunt us by preventing us from getting a 1 seed and at this point in time it is.

As of right now, it is the difference. ARGH.

[stickboy1956]

Another interesting week for bracketology - here's how the WCHA teams rank in this week's PWR.

4 CC

5 Denver

6. UND

8. Minn St.

9. UMD

12. Wisconsin

With this many teams in the tourny and the requirement that CC and Wisconsin have to be placed at home, it would be hard to avoid a 1st round WCHA match-up. I predict UCHO puts us in Worcester with a 1st round game v. UMD.

[AZSIOUX]

Another interesting week for bracketology - here's how the WCHA teams rank in this week's PWR.

4 CC

5 Denver

6. UND

8. Minn St.

9. UMD

12. Wisconsin

With this many teams in the tourny and the requirement that CC and Wisconsin have to be placed at home, it would be hard to avoid a 1st round WCHA match-up. I predict UCHO puts us in Worcester with a 1st round game v. UMD.

yeah we will have 6 in this week...i say in the end we get 4 for sure and 5 if there arent any upsets in conference tourneys as i see 1 or 2 wcha teams on that 12,13 bubble....

[stickboy1956]

yeah we will have 6 in this week...i say in the end we get 4 for sure and 5 if there arent any upsets in conference tourneys as i see 1 or 2 wcha teams on that 12,13 bubble....

It looks like the ECAC would be the most likely candidate for a conf. tourny upset impacting the brackets. Clarkson is the only ECAC team in the top 14 - if Princeton, Quinnipiac or Cornell pulls an upset (it would only be a minor upset at that) the ECAC might get 2 teams. The question for Clarkson is that if they lose in the conf tourny, does that drop them below 14 in the PWR- they would be 13 this week.

[AZSIOUX]

It looks like the ECAC would be the most likely candidate for a conf. tourny upset impacting the brackets. Clarkson is the only ECAC team in the top 14 - if Princeton, Quinnipiac or Cornell pulls an upset (it would only be a minor upset at that) the ECAC might get 2 teams. The question for Clarkson is that if they lose in the conf tourny, does that drop them below 14 in the PWR- they would be 13 this week.

I agree, that would be the way the wcha doesnt get 5 teams in with a bubble bursting with a upset in a conference tourney. umd and msu have really played themselves into a nice position. msu has won 6 straight but they do struggle bad on the road. the uw/msu series will be huge for sconnie and msu.

[AZSIOUX]

bracketology and inch 4x4 will be out later today but i see BC moves up a couple spots after winning the bean pot. the only non conference team we have played this year that is tumbling is northeastern. they are down to 17. im assuming we want them to stay in the top 25 in pairiwse. hope they hold on.

[RedFrog]

I was just looking at the comparisons with the teams behind us in the PWR and it appears that we are in relatively no danger of falling from the 6 position at this time. Here are the comparisons we have:

#7 Michigan State

We are winning this one 4-0 with substantial leads in RPI, TUC and COp plus we have the H2H.

#8t Boston College

We are winning this one 2-0, a lot of that is due to BC having only played 9 TUC In those 9 games, however, they are 2-6-1, once they hit the magical 10 games played, we will win that category also. We have an edge in COp that will be hard for them to catch us in, granted we only have 2 COp's(NH/Northeastern).

#8t Minnesota State-Mankato

We are dominating this comparison 5-0, thanx in part to a 2-0 record vs the Mavericks this season. We are dominating the RPI and TUC comparisons, the only one they can flip would be the COp, and that would require a Sioux meltdown.

#8t U of Minnesota-Duluth

We are also dominating this comparison, but at 4-1. The only one we lost was a head to head when we split with them earlier in the year. We play 2 more games against Duluth, and these will be crucial in holding off the Bulldogs. We have substantial leads in all categories, but losing 2 to them would make this a very interesting comparison.

#11t Notre Dame

Being up 3-0 in this comparison, only a late season meltdown by the Sioux would give Notre Dame a chance of flipping this.

#11t Wisconsin

We are up 3-1 and again, have significant leads in RPI, TUC and COp.

#11t Clarkson

We are up 3-0, however, outside of RPI, Clarkson has legitimate chances to flip the TUC and COp, should the Sioux falter down the stretch. So far, this is the closest comparison the Sioux have.

#14t Quinnipiac

Believe it or not, we only lead this comparison 1-0. Thanx in part to having no common opponents and Quinnipiac having only 7 games versus TUC's. If they make the 10 games needed for TUC's, and somehow manage to win 5 games versus TUC's, it won't matter as our RPI trumps anything they can throw at us.

#14t Providence

Being up 3-0, this is a team that could actually flip the TUC and COp comparisons with us if they finish strong. One to keep an eye on if they go on a tear at the end of the season.

Well, most of these are opinionated, but would like to hear anyone else's comments regarding the above. If I have time, I will look at the teams ahead of us in the PWR, and try to break them down a bit.

[siouxhockeyfan11]

New ones up...USCHO

[Goon]

I don't think so, I don't see B.C. going anywhere but Worchester MA.

[AussieSiouxFan]

New ones up...USCHO

I definately do not want to see the sioux have to go through CC in Colorado Springs. that would be tough, but i guess the boys would love a challenge!!

[AZSIOUX]

I definately do not want to see the sioux have to go through CC in Colorado Springs. that would be tough, but i guess the boys would love a challenge!!

if we dont climb up to a 1 i bet we end up there unless they stick du there for attendence.

This Week's Brackets

Colorado Springs

Quinnipiac vs. Colorado College

Notre Dame vs. North Dakota

Madison

Wisconsin vs. New Hampshire

Minn.-Duluth vs. Michigan State

Albany

Army vs. Miami

Clarkson vs. Denver

Worcester

Bemidji State vs. Michigan

Minnesota State vs. Boston College

Conference Breakdown

WCHA - 6

CCHA - 4

HEA - 2

ECAC - 2

CHA - 1

AHA - 1

[NorthDakotaHockey]

I been telling folks for weeks . . . . Git yer tickets to The World now. They gonna be going fast right soon.

Sioux in the Springs. Springing to Denver. Time to purge that ol' 1-0 ghost from a few years back in a big way.

I'd rather play the Tigers in the Springs that the Badgers at The Kohl. Not that it will matter. This team is on a mission.

[HaksHomey]

it is unusual to see the mavericks in the position they are in

[AZSIOUX]

it is unusual to see the mavericks in the position they are in

I agree and love seeing them and umd in as of now. great for the wcha overall

[Goon]

I agree and love seeing them and umd in as of now. great for the wcha overall

Some of the pontification on USCHO is that the WCHA will take out each other during the conference tourney.

Anyone think that is true? I think that when the TUC factor goes in I think that will further entrench the WCHA teams.

Maybe one of the smart PWR experts can explain it to us because it just doesn't really make sense.