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Posted

UND (KenPom 284) travels to Fargo on Saturday at 4PM to face NDSU (KenPom 117) in the regular season finale. UND is coming off a disappointing loss at SDSU in Brookings, keeping the losing streak alive there, UND hasn’t won in Brookings since February 11, 1995. UND got off to a good start and held the lead most of the game, but the second half fell apart, costing them a chance to move a half-game ahead of UST and lock in a top 3 seed outright.

Thanks to Omaha getting drubbed by USD last night, UND is now firmly in the 3 seed, with only an outside shot at the 2 seed if certain results fall their way. Here’s how the final seeding picture could shake out:

Key teams and current standings:

UND: 10-5 in Summit (locked at 3 seed if results hold)

UST: 10-4 (hosts NDSU tonight)

Omaha: 8-7

USD: 7-8 going into SDSU game

SDSU: 6-8 going into KC game

Seeding scenarios:

Assume UND holds the 3 seed:

They will face the 6 seed in the March 6 quarterfinal late game.

Likely 6 seed is either Omaha or SDSU, depending on Saturday results.

If SDSU beats KC tonight:

SDSU moves to 7-8.

Omaha currently sits at 8-7; if Omaha beats UST, they move to 9-7 and get the 4 or 5 seed depending on tiebreakers with Denver.

If Omaha loses to UST, they drop to 8-8. Then:

Winner of SDSU/USD in Vermillion decides the 5/6/7 tiebreakers.

If USD wins, they hold the tiebreaker over Omaha (swept them head-to-head), making USD the 5 seed and Omaha 6.

If SDSU wins, Omaha holds tiebreakers over SDSU (Omaha went 1-1 vs UST, SDSU 0-2), meaning Omaha 5 and SDSU 6.

Bottom line: UND will be the 3 seed going into Sioux Falls, with the 6 seed being Omaha or SDSU.

NDSU matchup:

The Bison are talented and a handful, especially inside, where Strickland gave UND fits last time with highlight dunks. UND got off to a decent first half, but the second half was rough. Both teams don’t have much to play for besides pride, although NDSU may still be focused on maintaining NCAA tournament seeding.

If Josh Jones can return, that would help UND a lot around the hoop.

KenPom has NDSU winning 82-69, so UND will need a full 40-minute effort to take the road win and close the regular season strong.

  • Like 1
Posted
16 minutes ago, UNDDOM said:

Radio guys were saying if UND wins on Saturday or st Thomas loses both, UND would be #2 

So both would be 10-6 (assuming we don’t beat NDSU). Head to head is a draw since 1-1. Believe then it goes to h2h record against the top team and goes down until the tie is broken. Both 0-2 vs NDSU. Would skip down to I think Omaha in that scenario beings they would be 9-7 and went 2-0 vs Denver. We split with Omaha and in this scenario UST would have got swept. So yeah I guess that makes sense. I just don’t find it likely. 

Posted

3rd is already locked up but 2nd would be nice to get that day off after first day win 

i think Denver can be the upset specialist in the tourney

i hope they are in ndsu bracket 

Posted

I am hopeful UND will have a good showing on Saturday.  Week off to prepare, bison playing a late game tonight at St Thomas with only 1 day off 

similar to us when we played NDSU at home, with only one day off 

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