Montana and FBS: moving in that direction?

[star2city]

Most of this decade, Montana's AD and President have denied any interest in moving up to FBS. That interest seems to have shifted. A subtle change in wording, but likely monumental for the Big Sky: Missoulian: Griz have what it takes to start thinking bigger

The Griz seniors have lost only one Big Sky game in four years. Their team has won or shared 11 straight league titles.

The Griz coaches are better than what the rest of the league has to offer. Same goes for the players, especially the linemen.

On top of that, the fan base and the facilities in Missoula are on a different level. The Griz regularly play in front of 25,000-plus. Last weekend they played in front of 7,600 in Sacramento.

The Montana-Idaho rivalry is in some ways more fierce than Montana-Montana St. Idaho's current 7-2 record (even in a Kibbie Dome ), the WAC's need for new teams, Montana no longer having a athletic deficit, and the continued sellouts of the 25,000 seat stadium, all seem to be playing a factor.

When the WAC comes a calling after Boise St (and maybe Fresno St too, as well as La Tech for CUSA) leaves for the MWC, Montana seems likely to accept this time.

"I've always said you should never say never," he stated. "I think we can compete with a lot of teams around the country at a lot of different levels. Maybe not the top elite, the Boises and some of those guys. But a lot of the schools.

"We used to compete against them well in the past. Our atmosphere and our fan base and everything, there's always potential."

O'Day stressed there's a moratorium on teams changing classifications through August of 2011.

"When it ends, you're going to see a lot of movement," he predicted. "I think you have a lot of teams, even in the FCS, who are in the stage of study and are starting to look at what they should do."

Montana would back out of the visiting UND in 2013, if Montana does join the FBS ranks.

[jodcon]

It's hard to imagine them leaving the Big Sky Conf. with the stranglehold they have on it, the FB program has constantly been a championship contender, and the womens BKB program makes it to the NCAA "Big Dance" virtually every year. They draw big crowds to their games, they have nice facilities, they have money to spend, they just seem to have it made in the Big Sky.

It's hard to explain how big the Griz are in this state, everywhere you go you see people in Griz clothing, probably 10 for every person wearing Montana State stuff. We live 400 miles from Missoula, but I bet tomorrow in our HS there will be 30 or 40 kids with some kind of Griz attire on, and we might have a total of 350 in HS this year.

Just makes me wonder if they bump to FBS and are a middle of the pack team if they would still be selling 28000 seats for FB games, if they would still be getting the worship they do now from the masses, still be selling the literal tons of merchandise they do now, still be able to sway top recruits without being able to dangle those 11 straight "Big Sky Champion" banners in front of their face....

I don't know, maybe it really will happen, just seems like it would be hard to walk away from Utopia you know?

[MplsBison]

I think once Boise and Fresno leave the MWC, Montana is guaranteed an invite. Whether they go or not, that remains to be seen.

I wonder if Montana State would stay in FCS and the Big Sky if Montana left. Maybe MSU would get invited to the MVFC?

[mksioux]

I think once Boise and Fresno leave the MWC, Montana is guaranteed an invite. Whether they go or not, that remains to be seen.

I wonder if Montana State would stay in FCS and the Big Sky if Montana left. Maybe MSU would get invited to the MVFC?

Where would they play the rest of their sports?

[MplsBison]

Where would they play the rest of their sports?

Summit League (bold with football):

NDSU UND

SDSU USD

Mont St - SUU

Oakland - IPFW

IUPUI - WIU

ORU - UMKC

Of course, SUU would probably go to the Big Sky. Probably add Chicago State.

[The Sicatoka]

Maybe MSU would get invited to the MVFC?

Be serious.

NDSU and SDSU were too well funded and too far west in the eyes of some of the Gateway/MVFC.

Given that, how would Montana State be viewed? Non-starter.

[MplsBison]

Be serious.

NDSU and SDSU were too well funded and too far west in the eyes of some of the Gateway/MVFC.

Given that, how would Montana State be viewed? Non-starter.

The MVFC won't do any expanding as is.

Thus, any talk of the MVFC expansion pre-assumes that some of the outlying MVFC who are the true obstructionists to expansion are gone.

Get with the program.

[The Sicatoka]

The MVFC won't do any expanding as is.

You didn't state that notion.

You just assumed Montata State in.

[jodcon]

I wonder if Montana State would stay in FCS and the Big Sky if Montana left. Maybe MSU would get invited to the MVFC?

I would think whoever courts Montana to join their conference will also have to take Montana State in tow, even though they don't like each other they both understand that they are somewhat joined at the hip, plus really M. State is fairly competitive and financially healthy in their athletics, so I don't think they would really be a burden.

Big Sky Conference would lose a ton of credibility in a hurry though.

[MplsBison]

You didn't state that notion.

You just assumed Montata State in.

Any talk of the MVFC expansion pre-assumes that some of the outlying MVFC who are the true obstructionists to expansion are gone

[The Sicatoka]

Any talk of the MVFC expansion pre-assumes that some of the outlying MVFC who are the true obstructionists to expansion are gone

Where would they (the obstructionists) go?

They have a pretty good situation and have the rest of the MVFC hamstrung:

They don't want to expand, and the expansionists need them to keep the playoff autobid.

[MplsBison]

Where would they (the obstructionists) go?

They have a pretty good situation and have the rest of the MVFC hamstrung:

They don't want to expand, and the expansionists need them to keep the playoff autobid.

AFAIK, the requisite is 6 members. Losing even 3 would still give MVFC enough (NDSU, SDSU, UNI, WIU, IND St, S Ill).

Youngstown would leave for the MAC in a split second. MO St and IL St would move up given the right situation. The Sun Belt and CUSA may be in need of members once this plays out. You never know.

[star2city]

Very well-written ISU blog:

ISU Bengal Blog: How Many More Times Will Montana Visit Pocatello?

The Rise Of Montana

Prior to 1996, when BSU and Idaho left the league (Nevada had departed a few years earlier), Montana had compiled a 52 percent winning percentage in Big Sky play. With their 5-0 mark this year, the Griz have gone 91-13 in the league since 1996 -- 87.5 percent.

The Griz have steadfastly built on a foundation that was already in place -- whether by good planning, happy coincidence or both -- when the Big Sky's Big Three departed. That foundation included a new stadium, a progressive coach with a wide-open offensive philosophy, a tremendous, home-grown quarterback and a recruiting and fan base both ready to explode. And explode the Griz did -- to bigger and better facilities, larger and more fanatic crowds, and consistently talented and productive football teams.

The Fall of Idaho State

Idaho State, meanwhile, has lost its two natural rivals and a good Nevada program, all of whom attracted local crowds and brought fans of their own. It's no coincidence that Idaho State's all-time largest crowd for football came against BSU, and it's largest regular-season basketball home gathering was for the Vandals. The Big Sky has replaced these teams that were guaranteed draws no matter how bad the Bengals might be in a particular year with Sacramento State, Portland State and Northern Colorado -- three teams no one in southeastern Idaho cares about, and who bring no fans of their own. In basketball, meanwhile, BSU and Idaho games that used to draw 5,000 or more per game as conference affairs are just like most other non-conference games these days, with the Broncos and Vandals attracting fewer than 3,000 during recent visits to Pocatello.

Montana and Montana State moving on ?

Conference and ISU administrators have heard so much speculation about whether Montana and its sister institution, Montana State, might head for the WAC they have grown immune to it. But I'm here to suggest that those people, particularly at Idaho State, ought to start taking that possibility seriously.

There are some folks in Missoula who will tell you the die is already cast. They believe the joint proposal by the UM and the community to host the 2010 FCS National Championship game in Missoula (in January 2011) is a thinly veiled attempt to begin the upgrades to the press box, visiting lockerrooms and other facilities that will be necessary if Montana moves up to the WAC. They believe that a number of traditional FCS powers are already making plans to jump once the moratorium expires and the Griz do not want to be left without options if their national "peers" take the plunge. O'Day seems to be alluding to that possibility when he tells the Missoulian, "When it ends, you're going to see a lot of movement. I think you have a lot of teams, even in the FCS, who are in the stage of study and are starting to look at what they should do."

[MplsBison]

You may see a lot of teams move, but I don't think you're going to ever see another Boise State emerge (at least in terms of support and facilities).

The rest of the move ups are going to be on the level of Western Kentucky. You get fan excitement and upgrades to facilities, but you're program is really never going to crack the upper echelon of college football. There aren't any more Oklahoma/Texas/Alabama/Florida type programs waiting in the wings to develop to that level.

[star2city]

The rest of the move ups are going to be on the level of Western Kentucky. You get fan excitement and upgrades to facilities, but you're program is really never going to crack the upper echelon of college football. There aren't any more Oklahoma/Texas/Alabama/Florida type programs waiting in the wings to develop to that level.

Not sure you can say that. Florida historically was a Vanderbilt in the SEC. It never won an SEC title until this generation.

Virginia Tech has moved to the upper tier: 30 years ago they weren't anyone. Before 1980, Florida State could just as well have been Arkansas State.

Certain programs have huge upsides: Old Dominion, UC Davis, maybe South Alabama, possibly UTSA.

[MplsBison]

Not sure you can say that. Florida historically was a Vanderbilt in the SEC. It never won an SEC title until this generation.

Virginia Tech has moved to the upper tier: 30 years ago they weren't anyone. Before 1980, Florida State could just as well have been Arkansas State.

Certain programs have huge upsides: Old Dominion, UC Davis, maybe South Alabama, possibly UTSA.

But you just proved my point. Where are those schools going to draw 80k fans a game from?

The majority in VA follow UVA or VT.

The majority in northern Cal follow Stanford or Cal (or UCLA or USC)

The majority in Alabama (esp S. Alabama) follow Auburn or the Tide

The majority in Texas (esp. San Antonio) follow Texas

You can't have a major program without major support. Simply getting it done on the field isn't enough at that level.

[star2city]

But you just proved my point. Where are those schools going to draw 80k fans a game from?

The majority in VA follow UVA or VT.

The majority in northern Cal follow Stanford or Cal (or UCLA or USC)

The majority in Alabama (esp S. Alabama) follow Auburn or the Tide

The majority in Texas (esp. San Antonio) follow Texas

You can't have a major program without major support. Simply getting it done on the field isn't enough at that level.

How did USF begin to draw 60 k and gain BCS status when it didn't even have football 15 years ago?

How did Florida State get 80k fans when 50 odd years ago, it was Florida State College for Women? FSU's program is very recent and was a joke until Bowden started in 1976. Allegiances almost solely based in the Florida panhandle shifted, but even in the panhandle, FSU probably doesn't have a majority allegiance. Yet Bowden built a program that at times put the SEC to shame.

I now live in Va Tech/Tenn territory (border area): the Va Tech fans almost all admit to being new fans (within the past 20 yrs). The shift in allegiances within Virginia from UVa to VPI has been significant. Even now, the Tidewater Va area doesn't really have a team, except maybe the Redskins. Old Dominion has a major opportunity there.

In N California, Cal and Stanford fans are all too high-brow to be fanatics. UC Davis has very loyal alum plus virgin football territory in Sacramento = recipe for a higher octane Boise under the right conditions.

Contrary to what you believe, the present day football allegiances are not frozen, but fluid. Always has been: always will be.

[82SiouxGuy]

But you just proved my point. Where are those schools going to draw 80k fans a game from?

The majority in VA follow UVA or VT.

The majority in northern Cal follow Stanford or Cal (or UCLA or USC)

The majority in Alabama (esp S. Alabama) follow Auburn or the Tide

The majority in Texas (esp. San Antonio) follow Texas

You can't have a major program without major support. Simply getting it done on the field isn't enough at that level.

There is no guarantee that programs with major support will continue to receive that support. Virginia Tech has only achieved its status in the past couple of decades. If the program fades and they become a losing program, many of those fans could lose interest plus they would not attract new fans. If another program in that area starts to excel, they may take over a large portion of the fan base.

Programs like Alabama and Texas have a little more leeway. They have much longer histories, so their fanbase is a little more established. But they could follow the same path if they go into a decade or 2 long losing streak. At one time some of the major football powers included such illustrious programs as Army, Fordham and Minnesota. None of those has been a powerhouse in many years, and none of them has a major fanbase that would attract 70,000 or more fans for each game.

Who knows if Boise State will remain a strong program. It wasn't that long ago that Brigham Young was the "small school" taking on the powerhouse programs. You just can't predict who has staying power and who doesn't, or whether other programs will grow into powers or not. There are too many variables to make those predictions.

[GeauxSioux]

But you just proved my point. Where are those schools going to draw 80k fans a game from?

The majority in VA follow UVA or VT.

The majority in northern Cal follow Stanford or Cal (or UCLA or USC)

The majority in Alabama (esp S. Alabama) follow Auburn or the Tide

The majority in Texas (esp. San Antonio) follow Texas

You can't have a major program without major support. Simply getting it done on the field isn't enough at that level.

I can see South Alabama being a big draw along the Gulf Coast. There is no Division I football between Tallahassee and Hattiesberg. Since there is a void, there is no true allegiance to one team in the area. You have Alabama, Auburn, Florida, FSU, USM and LSU fans. With over a million people in the Mobile/Pensacola area, I can see USA football being a big hit. It will take time to build the fan base, but it is ripe for the picking.

[MplsBison]

How did USF begin to draw 60 k and gain BCS status when it didn't even have football 15 years ago?

How did Florida State get 80k fans when 50 odd years ago, it was Florida State College for Women? FSU's program is very recent and was a joke until Bowden started in 1976. Allegiances almost solely based in the Florida panhandle shifted, but even in the panhandle, FSU probably doesn't have a majority allegiance. Yet Bowden built a program that at times put the SEC to shame.

I now live in Va Tech/Tenn territory (border area): the Va Tech fans almost all admit to being new fans (within the past 20 yrs). The shift in allegiances within Virginia from UVa to VPI has been significant. Even now, the Tidewater Va area doesn't really have a team, except maybe the Redskins. Old Dominion has a major opportunity there.

In N California, Cal and Stanford fans are all too high-brow to be fanatics. UC Davis has very loyal alum plus virgin football territory in Sacramento = recipe for a higher octane Boise under the right conditions.

Contrary to what you believe, the present day football allegiances are not frozen, but fluid. Always has been: always will be.

Your historical examples are irrelevent because I am referring to new move ups. Not existing teams.

All of Virginia is covered by UVa and VT. OD might have an opportunity to attract ODU alumns who still live in Norfolk...but that's about it. They are never going to compete with UVa or VT.

Same with UC Davis. All of California is covered by the Pac 10 schools. Again, they can appeal to UC Davis alumns who still live in the Sacramento area, and that's about it. Also note that UC Davis is a very high research school. That means a lot of grad school types who are mostly international folks who could care less about American football.

I'm not saying ODU and UC Davis can't be 25k avg. attendance type schools. They can. But they are never going to be like BCS schools.

[MplsBison]

I can see South Alabama being a big draw along the Gulf Coast. There is no Division I football between Tallahassee and Hattiesberg. Since there is a void, there is no true allegiance to one team in the area. You have Alabama, Auburn, Florida, FSU, USM and LSU fans. With over a million people in the Mobile/Pensacola area, I can see USA football being a big hit. It will take time to build the fan base, but it is ripe for the picking.

Having family in east Mobile bay, I know exactly what you're saying. And I agree that there are folks, especially USA alumns, living in the Mobile/Pensacola area who will travel to Ladd stadium to watch SunBelt football.

But, at best you're looking at a Troy type team. They will never get to the 80k-90k crowds that 'Bama and Auburn get.

[GeauxSioux]

Having family in east Mobile bay, I know exactly what you're saying. And I agree that there are folks, especially USA alumns, living in the Mobile/Pensacola area who will travel to Ladd stadium to watch SunBelt football.

But, at best you're looking at a Troy type team. They will never get to the 80k-90k crowds that 'Bama and Auburn get.

They will never overtake either Auburn or Alabama, but they will exceed Troy. Ladd Peebles has a current capacity of 40,000+. I can see them filling that in a few years and needing to expand. I will likely be one of those hitting the games in Mobile.

[star2city]

They will never overtake either Auburn or Alabama, but they will exceed Troy. Ladd Peebles has a current capacity of 40,000+. I can see them filling that in a few years and needing to expand. I will likely be one of those hitting the games in Mobile.

USA is averaging around 20,000 this year playing junior colleges and prep schools. Next year is their first FCS schedule.

There are way more Tide than Tigers fans in the Mobile area, but neither game location is very accessible from Mobile Bay (a Mobile to Tuscaloosa trip means taking 2-lane piney woods roads unless you veer way west into Mississippi). Tuscaloosa games pull in Birmingham fans while Auburn games pull in Montgomery plus a ton of Atlanta area alums.

Don't be surprised if USA starts construction of their own on-campus stadium within a few years. USA owns a huge tract of undeveloped land plus (tragically) a large neighborhood of dilapidated single family housing in west Mobile, has a large endowment for the age of the school, and, rumor has it, that they have some $'ed benefactors. USA's program will not be like UAB's or Troy's: it could easily exceed the three FBS Mississippi schools.

[MplsBison]

I don't buy either of your stories for a second. 50k to watch SunBelt football? Nope.

Oh and by the way, you take I-65 from Mobile up to Birmingham and then I-20 over to Tuscaloosa to go to 'Bama games. Not sure what you're talking about.

USA can certainly have their Mobil/Pensacola following, and what's wrong with that? 25-30k is pretty damn good. They can have a Southern Mississippi/Troy type of program.

[GeauxSioux]

Oh and by the way, you take I-65 from Mobile up to Birmingham and then I-20 over to Tuscaloosa to go to 'Bama games. Not sure what you're talking about.

This