This is the best team our Sioux have faced so far this season. It's also the toughest game we've played in so far this season. Despite all the fans who think we can't win without Bowenkamp, I think we can win this game if we execute in the following areas.
DEFENSE
1. Stop Matt Birkel cold. Don't just slow him down or contain him. Stop him cold. Make him a non-factor. If we can do that, we'll make St. Cloud unbalanced and less effective. Just like Josh Ranek and Lamar Gordon in previous years, shutting down the other team's top running back makes it easier for our defense to attack and disrupt the other team's offense. Remember NDSU in 2001? Once Gordon was neutralized, the Bison didn't have a chance.
2. Once we've neutralized the run, we can throw in a few linebacker blitzes to make their quarterback uncomfortable in the pocket. We have some of the most athletic and speedy linebackers we've ever had. Using them at the right time to harrass the quarterback could disrupt the timing of the passing game and make their quarterback less confident and more frustrated. Once he starts forcing passes, our secondary can probably get a few picks.
3. The last piece of the puzzle is our secondary, which must not give up any big passing plays. If our corners and safeties can do their jobs, we can slow down their passing game enough for our defense to get some three and outs. One big play could ruin everything, especially on the road in a hostile environment.
OFFENSE
1. Give the Huskies a steady diet of Roland and Strouth. Establish a punishing, physical running game and you'll win the time of possession battle and keep their offense off the field. This will also take some of the pressure off of Belmore so he doesn't try to win the game himself. The O-Line needs to take care of business in the trenches and win the physical battle up-front. I don't think we did that enough against Augustana. We'll need to do it here.
2. Stretch the field vertically. If we can establish the run, St. Cloud will start to bring their corners and safeties up for run support. This is where Belmore must take advantage of the situation and make some big plays. He missed some receivers in the Augustana game and he must make some plays in St. Cloud if we are going to win.
3. Score touchdowns, not field goals. Our first two possessions in Sioux Falls started in Augie territory and ended with field goals. If we get field position like that in St. Cloud, we must punch it in the end zone for 6 points. The Augustana game would have been more lopsided on the scoreboard if we had punched it in those two times instead of settling for three points. 14-0 is a lot harder to overcome than 6-0.
PREDICTION
My pronostications are usually dubious, but here goes nothing: UND defense and SCSU offense are evenly matched, although I think our D is a little bit better than their offense. That being said, the game will be decided by whether our offense can score on their defense. If we can establish the run and hit a few big passing plays, we'll be able to establish a lead and be able to play the game at a strategic advantage. Then our defense will have to stop the run and force SCSU to pass more than they want to. If we can do those things, I think we'll have a couple of long touchdown drives, one big offensive play and maybe even one defensive touchdown. That should give us enough points for our defense to work with.
Final Score: UND 28, SCSU 17