Boeser's Season in Perspective
I decided to compare Boeser's freshman campaign to past seasons and put it in historical perspective. I had heard a lot this season about where he ranked among Sioux freshman all time, but I couldn't recall anyone lining him up against all college hockey freshmen. I figured that the 60-point threshold was one very few college freshmen ever cross. At the same time, since he's confirmed his return for a second year, I was curious how those freshmen fared in their sophomore seasons.
Now the following only considers seasons back to 1999-2000. If anyone knows of a reliable resource for national statistics prior to that season, please let me know. However, I think this time frame is a better comparison than, say, going back another ten years considering the change in scoring environments from the 1980s and early 1990s to the previous 20 years or so. And someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe per game scoring has more or less declined about every season since (I know I've seen a few stats on this in the past, but it's incredibly difficult to locate). With that said, I think the following makes Boeser's past year that much more impressive. So without further ado...
Freshmen with 60+ points since '99-'00
Player Year G A P PPG Sophomore Season
Kyle Connor, UMich 15-16 35 36 71 1.87 NA - early departure
Jack Eichel, BU 14-15 26 45 71 1.78 NA - early departure
Thomas Vanek, UM 02-03 31 31 62 1.38 26-25-51
Zach Parise, UND 02-03 26 35 61 1.56 23-32-55
Brock Boeser, UND 15-16 27 33 60 1.43 ??????
And that's it. In the last 17 seasons, only five freshmen have reached the 60-point mark. Interesting that two players, Vanek and Parise, reached it in '02-'03, then it took 12 seasons before another freshman hit that mark. Now three have achieved it within the last two seasons. As far as the the follow up seasons, there's certainly not much to go on here as only two of four previous players returned. Interestingly enough neither Vanek or Parise were able to build on their freshmen breakouts, but of course both still had very good years.
So with that how about some predictions for Boeser's sophomore year? I think it will largely depend on whether Schmaltz returns, but I also have to think that teams will be gunning to shut him down, especially within the NCHC. I'll say with Schmaltz he goes 30-35-65. Without him I'll go with 24-28-52.