jimdahl

Looks like we're for sure going to make the tournament... making the Frozen Four involves a couple tournament wins, which have proven elusive for UND lately.

PWR forecast for the weekend Outlook for the final six games

Could still happen Anyway, my real point in posting was just to confirm that Lefty is, of course, right on the tie-breakers for seeding. Note that there is no tie-breaker for the actual championship, both teams are champs. That question comes up every year... I'm starting a FAQ.

As to what's actually likely, using the What-If Calculator If I give UND two sweeps and a split, the Sioux end with 42. With a sweep and two splits, 40. Only Denver, Duluth, and UNO would then be within striking distance. BUT, UNO plays Denver and UMD, so there have to be some losses there. It's pretty easy to come up with a three-way tie at the top, (e.g. a scenario like this): UND 28 40 UMD 28 40 Nebraska-Omaha 28 40 Denver 28 39 UW 28 32 CC 28 28

Here's what still seems possible to me (it's been years since I've tried doing this, so point out any mistakes): <table style='width:400px'><tr><th>Team</th><th>Current Points</th><th>Conference Series Remaining</th><th>Possible Final Rankings</th></tr> <tr><td class='hcell1'>UND</td> <td class='hcell2'>32</td> <td class='hcell3'>3</td> <td class='hcell4'>1st-6th</td> <tr><td class='notescell' colspan='4'><ul> <li>Has secured home ice in WCHA playoffs</li> <li>Can clinch T-5th with 1 point this weekend</li> <li>Can clinch 5th with 2 points this weekend</li> <li>Can clinch T-4th with 4 points this weekend</li> </ul></td></tr> <tr><td class='hcell1'>Denver</td> <td class='hcell2'>31</td> <td class='hcell3'>3</td> <td class='hcell4'>1st-6th</td> <tr><td class='notescell' colspan='4'><ul> <li>Has secured home ice in WCHA playoffs</li> <li>Can clinch T-5th with 2 points this weekend</li> <li>Can clinch 5th with 3 points this weekend</li> </ul></td></tr> <tr><td class='hcell1'>UMD</td> <td class='hcell2'>30</td> <td class='hcell3'>3</td> <td class='hcell4'>1st-7th</td> <tr><td class='notescell' colspan='4'><ul> <li>Can clinch 6th with 1 point this weekend</li> <li>Can clinch T-5th with 3 points this weekend</li> <li>Can clinch 5th with 4 points this weekend</li> </ul></td></tr> <tr><td class='hcell1'>Nebraska-Omaha</td> <td class='hcell2'>30</td> <td class='hcell3'>3</td> <td class='hcell4'>1st-7th</td> <tr><td class='notescell' colspan='4'><ul> <li>Can clinch 6th with 1 point this weekend</li> <li>Can clinch T-5th with 3 points this weekend</li> <li>Can clinch 5th with 4 points this weekend</li> </ul></td></tr> <tr><td class='hcell1'>UW</td> <td class='hcell2'>24</td> <td class='hcell3'>3</td> <td class='hcell4'>1st-11th</td> <tr><td class='notescell' colspan='4'><ul> <li>Can clinch 10th with 1 point this weekend</li> <li>Can clinch 9th with 3 points this weekend</li> <li>Can clinch T-8th with 4 points this weekend</li> <li>Can no longer finish 1st with fewer than 2 points this weekend</li> <li>Can no longer finish T-1st with fewer than 1 point this weekend</li> </ul></td></tr> <tr><td class='hcell1'>CC</td> <td class='hcell2'>22</td> <td class='hcell3'>3</td> <td class='hcell4'>1st-11th</td> <tr><td class='notescell' colspan='4'><ul> <li>Can clinch 10th with 3 points this weekend</li> <li>Can clinch 9th with 4 points this weekend</li> <li>Can no longer finish 1st with fewer than 4 points this weekend</li> <li>Can no longer finish T-1st with fewer than 3 points this weekend</li> <li>Can no longer finish T-2nd with fewer than 2 points this weekend</li> <li>Can no longer finish T-3rd with fewer than 1 point this weekend</li> </ul></td></tr> <tr><td class='hcell1'>UMN</td> <td class='hcell2'>21</td> <td class='hcell3'>3</td> <td class='hcell4'>T1st-11th</td> <tr><td class='notescell' colspan='4'><ul> <li>Can clinch 10th with 4 points this weekend</li> <li>Can no longer finish T-1st with fewer than 4 points this weekend</li> <li>Can no longer finish T-2nd with fewer than 3 points this weekend</li> <li>Can no longer finish T-3rd with fewer than 2 points this weekend</li> <li>Can no longer finish T-4th with fewer than 1 point this weekend</li> </ul></td></tr> <tr><td class='hcell1'>AA</td> <td class='hcell2'>20</td> <td class='hcell3'>2</td> <td class='hcell4'>5th-11th</td> <tr><td class='notescell' colspan='4'><ul> <li>Can no longer finish 5th with fewer than 2 points this weekend</li> <li>Can no longer finish T-5th with fewer than 1 point this weekend</li> </ul></td></tr> <tr><td class='hcell1'>SCSU</td> <td class='hcell2'>19</td> <td class='hcell3'>3</td> <td class='hcell4'>T3rd-11th</td> <tr><td class='notescell' colspan='4'><ul> <li>Can no longer finish T-3rd with fewer than 4 points this weekend</li> <li>Can no longer finish T-4th with fewer than 3 points this weekend</li> </ul></td></tr> <tr><td class='hcell1'>Mankato</td> <td class='hcell2'>18</td> <td class='hcell3'>2</td> <td class='hcell4'>5th-11th</td> <tr><td class='notescell' colspan='4'><ul> <li>Can no longer finish 5th with fewer than 4 points this weekend</li> <li>Can no longer finish T-5th with fewer than 3 points this weekend</li> <li>Can no longer finish 6th with fewer than 2 points this weekend</li> <li>Can no longer finish T-6th with fewer than 1 point this weekend</li> </ul></td></tr> <tr><td class='hcell1'>Bemidji State</td> <td class='hcell2'>17</td> <td class='hcell3'>3</td> <td class='hcell4'>5th-11th</td> <tr><td class='notescell' colspan='4'><ul> <li>Can no longer finish 5th with fewer than 2 points this weekend</li> <li>Can no longer finish 6th with fewer than 1 point this weekend</li> </ul></td></tr> <tr><td class='hcell1'>MTech</td> <td class='hcell2'>4</td> <td class='hcell3'>3</td> <td class='hcell4'>12th-12th</td> <tr><td class='notescell' colspan='4'><ul> <li>Can no longer earn home ice in WCHA playoffs</li> </ul></td></tr> </table>

Good example, I probably should have a clear understanding of why I feel the two are different, or adjust our responses so they're the same for the two. My first thought is that someone posting in a Gopher game thread, "wow, GPL is sure melting down" (which people do all the time) is different from someone starting a thread to mock GPL and its posters (which we'd be more inclined to close). However, the Bisonville thread was something in between -- an attempt to point out a bunch of UND threads on Bisonville, but the reaction from other posters was for most of the replies to be nothing other than mocking Bisonville and its posters. The replies probably had a lot to do with it, in that case.

Of course it will come up -- whenever a championship caliber team has a subpar season or tournament performance, the fans are going to discuss whether the coach is the right guy for the job. That's true of any team in any sport, and those are legitimate discussions. That's why we left that thread open for a long time to let people discuss how much pressure should be on a coach to bring home championships. We only closed it once it was quite clearly no longer about that, but just people bickering about each other and other somewhat unrelated topics (last page of that thread). Had the discussion still been about whether Hakstol should be coach or not, it would have been left open.

Since there's no good reason to fire the coach this week, and all players are currently accounted for, how about something on the lighter side. There's some debate going on in the WSJ barns thread... what do YOU think of REA's smell?

Woah, that's not at all what I meant. There's a big difference between discussing the Bison and discussing a thread on Bisonville. Discussion of opponents or other regional teams is great, and happens all the time (as Cratter pointed out). What I said was not to drag arguments from other message boards to this one. For example, noticing a thread on Bisonville about UND and reposting it here is quite useful. Noticing a thread on Bisonville about UND and posting here about how stupid you think Bisonville and its posters are doesn't really contribute much to either board.

Thanks for all the thoughts. While I don't think a few thread closures over the course of a season is that excessive, three within a month or so is noticeably high. A few thoughts- * It does seem true that we sometimes lurk on threads that contain a lot of controversy (Kristo, Fire Hak) waiting to shut them down as soon as the discussion "seems done", whereas less controversial threads are allowed to die a more organic death (as Cratter described). That we're responding to problems in them more quickly because we're paying more attention is good, to any extent that we're quicker to close them because we wish they would just go away is probably bad. * Part of it is a tax we pay for having multiple moderators. The first one who thinks something needs addressing will do so. I probably wouldn't have closed the Kristo thread yet (though can't blame whoever did), whereas someone else probably wouldn't have closed the Bisonville thread (which I did). So, there's going to be a little more moderation than there would be with a single person. We try to offset that by discussing controversial situations, for example we debated the Fire Hakstol thread for days before pulling the trigger. * Pleas to "close this!" are definitely completely ignored. I think the correlation you're picking up on is that a lot of people correctly anticipate when a moderator is likely to think a thread unsalvageable. * We try pretty hard not to delete. That really only happens when a post is illegal or offensive. redwing was pretty spot on with his analysis of the three situations, but I'll add my 2 cents. The Fire Hak thread was started for the sole purpose of stirring the pot, as Goon admitted in the thread, so probably should have been shut down immediately. However, we also didn't want to be banning criticism (as some people were calling for) so left it open for a lengthy debate and only finally shut it down when no one was saying anything new, were pretty far off topic, and were generally just attacking each other instead of discussing the topic. The Kristo thread went on for something like 450 posts and was open from before the incident hit the news to after he was released. The reasoning behind it closing was probably pretty similar to the Fire Hak thread. The Bisonville thread is one I'll take full blame for -- a while ago people would frequently drag arguments over from POI and USCHO and they were generally quite problematic, so I started cracking down on it. We aren't deleting them, so the notification that there's an interesting thread about UND on a different board is still there, and people who really want to discuss a thread on Bisonville can follow the link and do so there.

Such complaints are going to fall on deaf ears for a little while, because people have been making them all season, even when Yale was clearly the runaway leader. However, they are definitely starting to slip in objective rankings other than PWR. They fell to #2 in RPI (still just ahead of UND), but plummeted to #5 in KRACH (where UND took over the #1 slot). Looks like Yale has about 50% chance of dropping if they lose tonight, 25% even if they win. However, some of that may be a temporary effect of dropping below 10 games vs. TUCs if one of their TUC opponents drops out of consideration (e.g. RPI beats Cornell).

This is a great piece. A few select quotes from the WCHA barns:

Glad to see you around

We usually got one of the tables around the horseshoe bar, at least once a week. My main memories are -- Grain belt pint glasses, burger baskets, a beer selection I never took advantage of, "historical price" promotions (the once a year I could afford a steak there:). It was a mandatory stop on 21st birthday tours, a great spot for a group that wanted to sit and chat instead of go to The Antique. I stopped in the new one post-flood once, and it just wasn't the same (you could say, "of course it wasn't", but Blue Moose felt exactly the same). So, I feel like I really said RIP to my old friend a decade or so ago. It sounds like this is less the end of Whitey's than the end of this owner, which according to the article and this thread may not be an entirely bad thing.

That's a great question, I never really though of the fact that it could vary (so it must have been someone else who posted it). Nonetheless, I have the historical rankings handy, so here's what I count for the last Monday each March: 2010: 31 2009: 29 2008: 31 2007: 28 2006: 28 2005: 27 2004: 30 So, the last few weeks that it's been 32-34 would apparently be unusually high.

Yeah, I saw that too. He's not wrong in the facts, UND did drop two spots, but it's not really as important as you might think just reading that post. As I mentioned in the weekend prediction, UND's comparison wins over Denver and BC were hanging by a thread; they temporarily flipped due to this minor move, but the outcome at the end of the weekend will still be determined by those teams' own performances. If BC and Denver win, they'll hold onto those comparisons (which they would've taken whether Robert Morris won or lost). If BC and Denver lose, those comparisons will flip back to UND. Come Monday, whether Robert Morris won or lost won't have had any direct effect on UND's ranking. In the long run, there are currently at least 4 teams within .01 of .500 in RPI who UND has a winning record against (Alaska, St. Cloud, Bemidji, Robert Morris) -- how many of those end up above and below the TUC line will have a small impact. (AA will also be in that camp if UND emerges with a winning record vs. them).

And the 2011 Ice Hockey Championship Manual is out, and... surprise! another change... the minimum ten games vs TUCs stipulation for TUC to be a criterion is back. As mentioned earlier in this thread, it doesn't matter much anymore with the TUC pool so much larger (everyone has more games vs. TUCs so almost everyone under consideration will reach 10). The good news is it's probably safe to guess that there won't be any more changes this year. 2011 Ice Hockey Championship Manual Selection critera:

UND Press Release: Update on Kristo

The Hockey News says:

Hak's weekly press conference... He just talked to Danny's parents and reiterated that he's not going to say anything more about the injury, the family wants privacy. He has no timeframe for return, frostbite is serious, he's beginning treatment. Asked if Danny violated any team rules, he said no. It's best to assume my summary is incorrect and watch it yourself, before trying to quote me anywhere.... <object width="480" height="301" id="embed" classid="clsid:d27cdb6e-ae6d-11cf-96b8-444553540000"><param name="movie" value="http://www.fightingsioux.com/mediaPortal/embed.swf" /><param name="quality" value="high" /><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true" /><param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always" /><param name="flashVars" value="catid=9814&id=749073&img=http://image.cdnl3.xosnetwork.com/pics32/640/GZ/GZCAVBYXXNRWSOH.20110202212434.jpg&server=http://www.fightingsioux.com/XML/titanv3/&pageurl=http://www.fightingsioux.com/mediaPortal/&jtv=13500&skin=13500&gaa=UA-8563605-2&tremorprogid=49c162c7563e1&nlwa=http://track1.neulion.com/jtvsp/13500/" /><embed name="embed" pluginspage="http://www.adobe.com/go/getflashplayer" src="http://www.fightingsioux.com/mediaPortal/embed.swf" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="480" height="301" quality="high" allowFullScreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always" flashVars="catid=9814&id=749073&img=http://image.cdnl3.xosnetwork.com/pics32/640/GZ/GZCAVBYXXNRWSOH.20110202212434.jpg&server=http://www.fightingsioux.com/XML/titanv3/&pageurl=http://www.fightingsioux.com/mediaPortal/&jtv=13500&skin=13500&gaa=UA-8563605-2&tremorprogid=49c162c7563e1&nlwa=http://track1.neulion.com/jtvsp/13500/"></embed></object>

At least one of these is pretty familiar to people who search for online streams of UND hockey games... U.S. seizes 10 sports streaming websites

It seems to be related to Facebook -- Discussion of it on Facebook: http://forum.developers.facebook.net/viewtopic.php?pid=312579 Facebook bug report: http://bugs.developers.facebook.net/show_bug.cgi?id=14971 Google "bootloader_Zvucx" and it seems quite widespread (affecting a lot of sites and other software that integrates w/Facebook, e.g. vBulletin). I'll see if I can turn off the Facebook integration until we can find out more about it.

I haven't helped in ages, so I tried to get together some good stuff as we drive toward 500! Jan 26 In 2010, Senior Travis Bledsoe became the 30th member of the 1,000-point club in UND men’s basketball history. He opened the second half of a home win over Utah Valley (Feb. 20) with a 3-pointer. It was a fitting way for Bledsoe to join the elite club since 522 of his career points had come via 3-pointers. Jan 27 Head hockey coach Barry Thorndycraft, in the third of his four-year coaching career at UND won his only NCAA title in 1963. Thorndycraft finished his coaching career at UND with a 71-65-8 (.521) mark from 1959-64. Jan 28 In 1993, the UND football team led by coach Roger Thomas advanced in the D-II playoffs for the first time. They opened the 10-3 season with a 52-0 win over Southern Conn. St. Jan 29 The transitioning Sioux football team opened its 2010 campaign at Idaho. The game was a defensive duel until, at 5:19 in the 2nd quarter Nathan Enderle hit Justin Vultung on a 44-yard TD pass, putting the Vandals up 17-0 and firmly in control of the game. Idaho went on to win 45-0. Jan 30 Bill Reichart was one of the most prolific goal-scorers in early Sioux history. He appears numerous times in the UND record books, including still sharing the individual record (with Bob Joyce) for points in a game, with 9 vs. Minnesota Duluth in 1954; and 3rd all-time in points per game with 1.84 (behind Hrkac and Cherski). In the 1954-55 campaign, his first, the season goals and points leader helped UND to a .518 win percentage. Jan 31 Coming into the 2010-11 season, the UND men's hockey team was 15-14-0 (.517) all-time in Achorage, Alaska. In contrast, UND was 25-3-3 (.855) vs Alaska-Anchorage at home. Feb 1 Coming into the 2010-2011 season, Gene Roebuck's women's basketball teams had gone 516-77 and won 11 NCC championships since 1990. Roebuck has produced the WBCA Player of the Year four times since 1995 and has had eight NCC MVPs. He has also had 19 players be named All-American and 52 players become All-NCC.

Bye week is my favorite PWR forecasting week, so I had to get it fired up... Idle UND hockey team could climb to #1 in PWR this weekend Ok, the headline was a little sensationalistic... UND has something like a 7% chance of landing at #1 (all scenarios undoubtedly involve losing both its games, and then a little luck for UND). #2-#3 is quite likely. I've also updated the rankings pages on SiouxSports. I mostly made a lot more columns sortable, but in light of all the interest in comparing SOS this season (for obvious reasons) added KRACH and RPI SOS to the rankings comparisons table. NCAA Division I - College Hockey Rankings Comparison

No problem, I can add back links to those as "expanded" versions or something. While I was personally thrilled to come up with a way to get all the information onto the screen at once, I can definitely see how it could be quite dense and overwhelming.