jimdahl

Wow, amazing anyone thought to write that rule and put it in the books. Like I said, I assumed it was a more general "penalty shots are instead goals if the goalie is out" type rule. Thanks!

I thought I was judging it pretty fairly -- that a lot of us of certain ages have very fond memories of it from our youths, but that its heyday also seemed to be sometime back then (for me, the 80s). Certainly no offense intended; like I said, I miss the place that's in my memories, though time seemed to have passed it by. Seems to be a controversial topic, I think I remember it stirring up some heated discussions when it closed.

No kidding. Though I also felt that way last time I visited (mid-2000s?). I don't miss the Shangri-La, but I do miss my memories of it growing up. It's so true that you can't go home again.

I've watched a lot of hockey and don't remember ever seeing this before... Video Basically, Ovechkin got a breakaway when the opposing goalie was pulled, then a player from the Tampa Bay bench stuck his stick onto the ice to try to impede his play. That resulted in an automatic goal for Ovechkin (who followed through and put it in the net anyway). I don't remember a rule leading to an automatic goal. I guess the actual infraction would normally lead to a penalty shot, but since it was an empty net it's just ruled a goal.

Find your name on the leaderboard and click it.

SiouxSports isn't exactly at full performance right now, either, but I'm trying to keep an eye on it...

I thought Niagara's opponent was South Dakota State?

Here are the Consensus Picks. About the same number of people picked Minnesota (12.4%) as KRACH's predicted odds for them (14.9%). Not so for Quinnipiac, which KRACH gave an 18.7% chance, but only 1.8% of people picked. Most expect them to fall to BC in the regional. No one expects a first round exit for UND (2.5%), and the remaining think that exiting the region (69.5%) essentially means winning the Frozen Four (62.8%). We love the WCHA -- 4-seed Wisconsin (59.6%) is favored over 1-seed Mass.-Lowell (40.4%), as is 3-seed Denver (53.5%) over 2-seed New Hampshire (46.5%), though 1-seed Notre Dame (56.7%) eeks out a win over 4-seed St. Cloud St (43.3%). Except Mankato -- though KRACH actually says Mankato is a 50.2 to 49.8 favorite, only 19.6% of Sioux fans expect them to defeat Miami.

KRACH's predictions KRACH still believes in Quinnipiac, even though Minnesota has just edged ahead for the #1 spot.

Most of us would have been better off replacing our actual picks with Boston College for pretty much the last decade.

I revisited the question of weighted vs. unweighted using this season's results (which may or may not be anomalous, I truly have no idea). A look back at 2013 forecasts (second half, scroll to On weighted vs. unweighted conference tournament projections)

As always, I'm suspicious as to whether I got it right, so I'll do a "soft launch" in the forum before throwing it on the front page. Let me know if you see any problems. http://siouxsports.com/hockey/bracket.php

Brodeur credited with his 3rd career goal. (It wasn't really him).

On the difference between 50-50 and weighted predictions this time of year, let me give a couple examples Brown is an example of a team that I said would get the most benefit from me doing it straight 50-50, because they're statistically the most outmatched (playing QU). The 2nd column is the 50-50 odds, the 3rd the weighted (by KRACH) odds: #16 0.2% 0.1% #17 2.4% 1.6% #18 6.4% 3.3% #19 10.5% 5.4% #20 17.4% 16.4% #21 20.4% 23.0% #22 15.4% 13.4% #23 6.4% 6.2% #24 6.3% 9.6% #25 6.9% 12.3% #26 5.8% 7.0% #27 1.7% 1.4% #28 0.2% 0.1% #29 0.0% 0.0% As I predicted, their good outcomes (16-19) are about doubled under 50-50 while their bad outcomes (25 in particular) are cut. However, the shape of the curve is about the same and overall differences are pretty minor. That is, of course, the most extreme example. Here's UND: #3 2.4% 1.3% #4 6.5% 5.5% #5 9.5% 8.9% #6 13.4% 11.7% #7 22.4% 21.3% #8 18.9% 22.7% #9 15.7% 14.8% #10 9.0% 10.0% #11 2.2% 3.8% #12 0.1% 0.1% Of course, saying that the two aren't very different isn't a justification for doing it one vs the other. My justification is still that the 50-50 is fact while the weighted is subjective. I'm just pointing out that even fans of the weighted can still get a lot of value from the 50-50.

In close to plain English, I'm saying that the tables I published assume that each game has an equal chance of going either way. Kirk is saying he would prefer that the outcomes that depend on Minnesota beating Colorado College be listed as more likely than vice versa. I replied that the problem with that is choosing how much more likely Minnesota is to win... do they stand an 80% chance, a 60% chance?

That's right, the table is the share of remaining possible outcomes. The big reason I do it that way is because it's mathematically irrefutable. I can state these shares as fact, and no one can come up with any disagreeing predictions. A weighted prediction would instead require me to use some subjective predictor of game outcomes. There are a couple reason it's not as bad as you think -- The predictors aren't as strong as during the regular season. Using KRACH, participants in a single conference's tournament tend to have similar strengths, such that 90% of the games don't become more biased than 65-35. Quinnipiac is an obvious exception; but on the flip side, KRACH says Michigan is a 2:3 underdog. So, I'm instead trying to give people the facts and let them ascertain what they think is likely. And the predictors' deviations from 50-50 are only magnified for very low probability events. Teams that make it through in about 50% of scenarios also make it through in a similar number of weighted scenarios. It's the guys who make it in only 4% of scenarios that might find that the 4% is a pretty unlikely corner, such that it's only 1% weighted. However, doing a weighted run so people can see and compare should be no problem. I'll try to do it.

Friday morning's reading if UND and Wisconsin win TeamPWR PossibilitiesOverallBy number of winsQuinnipiac#1 100.0%Tournament invites: 100.0% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #1100.0%100.0%100.0%Tournament invites:100.0%100.0%100.0%UMN#2 100.0%Tournament invites: 100.0% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #2100.0%100.0%100.0%Tournament invites:100.0%100.0%100.0%Miami#3 54.0%#4 32.6% #5 11.3% #6 2.0% #7 0.1% Tournament invites: 100.0% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #334.8%46.3%100.0% #443.6%43.3% #517.8%9.6% #63.6%0.9% #70.2% Tournament invites:100.0%100.0%100.0%Boston College#3 18.8%#4 17.0% #5 22.2% #6 21.7% #7 12.7% #8 5.5% #9 1.6% #10 0.4% #11 0.1% Tournament invites: 100.0% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #3 75.0% #411.1%20.7%25.0% #523.3%42.2% #629.1%28.6% #721.6%7.7% #810.6%0.7% #93.1% #100.8% #110.3% Tournament invites:100.0%100.0%100.0%Yale#3 1.3%#4 12.4% #5 13.1% #6 11.7% #7 16.8% #8 12.7% #9 7.2% #10 4.4% #11 3.1% #12 4.0% #13 6.0% #14 5.1% #15 1.9% #16 0.3% #17 0.1% #18 0.0% Tournament invites: 96.5% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #3 5.0% #4 49.4% #51.7%10.9%32.1% #64.2%17.7%11.5% #79.7%31.3%1.9% #88.9%23.4% #98.4%10.5% #107.3%4.6% #117.4%1.4% #1211.9%0.1% #1318.1% #1415.3% #155.6% #160.9% #170.4% #180.1% Tournament invites:89.4%100.0%100.0%Mass.-Lowell#3 16.9%#4 8.8% #5 16.6% #6 22.5% #7 22.1% #8 9.7% #9 2.9% #10 0.4% #11 0.0% Tournament invites: 100.0% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #3 1.4%66.4% #4 12.9%22.4% #58.7%38.6%10.4% #628.7%31.8%0.8% #738.6%11.3% #817.9%3.1% #95.3%0.8% #100.8%0.1% #110.0% Tournament invites:100.0%100.0%100.0%UND#3 4.3%#4 14.0% #5 17.9% #6 23.1% #7 22.8% #8 12.7% #9 3.9% #10 1.1% #11 0.3% Tournament invites: 100.0% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #3 17.3% #4 8.7%47.3% #57.6%23.1%33.1% #628.7%32.8%2.2% #733.6%23.8% #820.3%10.1% #97.1%1.4% #102.2% #110.5% Tournament invites:100.0%100.0%100.0%New Hampshire#6 2.6%#7 11.0% #8 34.2% #9 35.4% #10 13.2% #11 3.3% #12 0.3% #13 0.0% Tournament invites: 100.0% n/aNotre Dame#3 4.7%#4 7.7% #5 3.1% #6 1.8% #7 2.5% #8 5.0% #9 10.1% #10 15.2% #11 9.2% #12 5.5% #13 8.7% #14 6.1% #15 9.8% #16 7.6% #17 2.4% #18 0.4% Tournament invites: 82.6% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #3 18.9% #4 30.7% #5 1.9%10.4% #6 2.6%4.8% #70.0%8.3%1.6% #81.5%15.0%1.8% #99.3%14.5%7.4% #1017.1%7.7%19.0% #1114.9%2.0%5.1% #126.2%9.5%0.3% #131.9%30.9% #148.6%7.4% #1519.5%0.3% #1615.2%0.0% #174.9% #180.8% Tournament invites:65.4%99.5%100.0%Mankato#6 0.1%#7 1.4% #8 8.4% #9 19.1% #10 30.2% #11 26.0% #12 12.8% #13 1.9% #14 0.1% Tournament invites: 99.6% n/aNiagara#4 3.9%#5 8.3% #6 7.6% #7 5.0% #8 4.7% #9 7.6% #10 8.4% #11 10.7% #12 19.6% #13 21.1% #14 3.0% #15 0.2% Tournament invites: 95.9% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #4 15.5% #5 33.0% #6 0.2%30.4% #7 3.8%16.3% #80.0%14.3%4.3% #90.3%29.4%0.4% #102.0%29.6% #1112.0%18.8% #1237.1%3.9% #1342.2% #146.0% #150.4% Tournament invites:91.8%100.0%100.0%SCSU#4 3.6%#5 7.6% #6 6.9% #7 5.6% #8 6.6% #9 8.5% #10 9.5% #11 11.6% #12 16.4% #13 16.7% #14 5.9% #15 1.1% Tournament invites: 93.8% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #4 14.6% #5 30.2% #6 0.7%26.8% #7 3.9%18.6% #8 19.0%7.5% #90.4%31.4%2.0% #104.2%29.2%0.3% #1116.3%13.7% #1231.6%2.1% #1333.4% #1411.8% #152.3% Tournament invites:87.7%100.0%100.0%Denver#7 0.0%#8 0.4% #9 3.6% #10 16.1% #11 30.6% #12 31.7% #13 16.9% #14 0.7% #15 0.0% Tournament invites: 98.3% n/aWestern Michigan#13 11.9%#14 51.9% #15 29.9% #16 6.1% #17 0.1% #18 0.0% Tournament invites: 57.1% n/aUnion#8 0.0%#9 0.1% #10 0.7% #11 2.6% #12 6.5% #13 9.2% #14 12.2% #15 26.3% #16 24.1% #17 6.9% #18 5.0% #19 3.8% #20 2.0% #21 0.4% #22 0.1% Tournament invites: 41.3% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #8 0.0% #9 0.6% #10 2.7% #11 10.3% #12 26.0% #13 0.5%36.0% #144.4%11.2%24.3% #1521.3%46.1% #1625.1%37.9% #1715.3%4.3% #1815.1% #1911.4% #205.9% #211.2% #220.3% Tournament invites:14.9%27.1%100.0%UW#10 0.4%#11 2.5% #12 3.3% #13 5.1% #14 9.3% #15 7.0% #16 8.9% #17 14.8% #18 23.4% #19 15.8% #20 7.4% #21 2.0% #22 0.1% Tournament invites: 27.0% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #10 1.5% #11 10.1% #12 13.3% #13 20.6% #14 2.0%35.0% #15 11.8%16.2% #160.1%32.2%3.2% #1716.2%27.0% #1836.2%21.3% #1929.0%5.1% #2014.5%0.6% #213.9% #220.2% Tournament invites:0.0%7.9%100.0%Providence#13 0.0%#14 0.8% #15 5.1% #16 6.7% #17 9.1% #18 9.0% #19 14.7% #20 18.4% #21 14.0% #22 10.3% #23 7.6% #24 3.2% #25 1.2% Tournament invites: 25.0% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #13 0.1% #14 3.2% #15 20.3% #16 1.1%25.5% #170.1%4.5%31.8% #183.2%16.7%12.7% #1911.4%31.6%4.5% #2020.7%30.3%1.9% #2121.0%14.2%0.0% #2219.8%1.6% #2315.1%0.0% #246.4% #252.3% Tournament invites:0.0%0.2%100.0%Boston University#12 0.0%#13 2.4% #14 4.0% #15 11.2% #16 9.6% #17 9.5% #18 12.9% #19 22.2% #20 17.9% #21 8.7% #22 1.4% Tournament invites: 25.9% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #12 0.0% #13 9.7% #14 0.6%15.5% #15 3.3%41.6% #16 16.7%21.9% #17 29.4%8.6% #189.7%29.5%2.7% #1936.1%16.6% #2034.0%3.7% #2117.4%0.1% #222.8%0.0% Tournament invites:0.0%3.6%100.0%Rensselaer#14 0.8%#15 5.8% #16 19.1% #17 29.4% #18 27.6% #19 13.3% #20 3.5% #21 0.6% Tournament invites: 5.5% n/aAlaska#16 0.5%#17 3.7% #18 8.1% #19 13.6% #20 16.2% #21 14.8% #22 13.7% #23 13.8% #24 10.3% #25 4.8% #26 0.5% Tournament invites: n/aCornell#19 0.9%#20 2.7% #21 4.7% #22 9.3% #23 24.4% #24 34.1% #25 21.7% #26 2.3% Tournament invites: 0.0% n/aBrown#16 0.0%#17 0.6% #18 4.0% #19 9.9% #20 18.2% #21 25.9% #22 18.4% #23 6.2% #24 5.7% #25 6.8% #26 3.4% #27 0.8% #28 0.1% Tournament invites: 25.0% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #16 0.0% #17 2.6% #18 15.8% #190.5%5.1%30.5% #206.0%23.8%24.9% #2113.7%38.3%21.7% #2213.8%30.4%4.5% #2315.5%2.4% #2417.1% #2520.4% #2610.3% #272.4% #280.2% Tournament invites:0.0%0.0%100.0%Dartmouth#19 1.3%#20 7.1% #21 19.8% #22 33.4% #23 26.4% #24 10.8% #25 1.2% Tournament invites: 0.0% n/aRobert Morris#14 0.0%#15 1.7% #16 17.1% #17 23.3% #18 7.1% #19 1.4% #20 1.4% #21 3.3% #22 5.0% #23 7.7% #24 16.3% #25 12.2% #26 3.5% Tournament invites: 1.6% n/aCC#25 0.8%#26 6.7% #27 26.8% #28 44.2% #29 14.7% #30 5.4% #31 1.3% Tournament invites: 0.0% n/aOhio State#18 2.4%#19 3.0% #20 5.5% #21 5.6% #22 6.9% #23 8.2% #24 4.5% #25 2.8% #26 8.8% #27 5.6% #28 15.8% #29 17.8% #30 7.2% #31 6.0% Tournament invites: 25.0% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #18 9.5% #19 12.0% #20 0.3%21.5% #21 2.5%19.8% #22 10.8%16.8% #23 19.0%13.6% #24 14.0%4.1% #25 8.6%2.7% #260.5%34.3% #276.0%10.5% #2831.6% #2935.5% #3014.4% #3112.1% Tournament invites:0.0%0.0%100.0%Ferris State#25 18.8%#26 48.5% #27 27.3% #28 4.9% #29 0.5% Tournament invites: 0.0% n/aSt. Lawrence#24 0.1%#25 9.1% #26 18.5% #27 36.3% #28 21.2% #29 9.8% #30 3.3% #31 1.8% Tournament invites: 0.0% n/aNebraska-Omaha#29 11.5%#30 27.6% #31 40.2% #32 20.6% Tournament invites: 0.0% n/aMichigan#21 0.0%#22 0.4% #23 3.4% #24 8.9% #25 12.1% #26 1.0% #27 2.6% #28 8.1% #29 11.3% #30 1.4% #31 3.5% #32 1.5% Non-TUC 45.8% Tournament invites: 25.0% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #21 0.1% #22 1.7% #23 13.4% #24 35.5% #25 48.5% #26 3.3%0.8% #27 10.4% #28 32.4% #29 45.2% #30 5.6% #315.4%3.1% #322.9% Non-TUC91.6%0.0%0.0%Tournament invites:0.0%0.0%100.0%Connecticut#21 0.2%#22 0.9% #23 2.5% #24 6.2% #25 8.6% #26 6.7% #27 0.0% #28 0.0% #29 5.4% #30 5.7% #31 9.5% #32 4.4% Non-TUC 50.0% Tournament invites: 25.0% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #21 0.7% #22 3.5% #23 9.8% #24 24.8% #25 34.5% #26 26.7% #27 #28 #29 21.6% #30 22.6% #31 38.1% #32 17.6% Non-TUC100.0%0.0%0.0%Tournament invites:0.0%0.0%100.0%Holy Cross#26 0.0%#27 0.6% #28 5.7% #29 28.9% #30 49.4% #31 15.3% Tournament invites: 0.0% n/aCanisiusNon-TUC 100.0%Tournament invites: 25.0% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2Non-TUC100.0%100.0%100.0%Tournament invites:0.0%0.0%100.0%Mercyhurst#32 0.0%Non-TUC 100.0% Tournament invites: 25.0% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #32 0.0%Non-TUC100.0%100.0%100.0%Tournament invites:0.0%0.0%100.0%

Friday morning's reading if UND and Mankato win TeamPWR PossibilitiesOverallBy number of winsQuinnipiac#1 100.0%Tournament invites: 100.0% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #1100.0%100.0%100.0%Tournament invites:100.0%100.0%100.0%UMN#2 100.0%Tournament invites: 100.0% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #2100.0%100.0%100.0%Tournament invites:100.0%100.0%100.0%Miami#3 44.8%#4 33.0% #5 17.5% #6 4.4% #7 0.2% #8 0.0% Tournament invites: 100.0% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #324.3%34.1%96.6% #441.5%45.8%3.4% #526.1%17.7% #67.6%2.4% #70.4% #80.0% Tournament invites:100.0%100.0%100.0%Boston College#3 16.1%#4 13.6% #5 16.9% #6 19.8% #7 15.7% #8 9.4% #9 4.9% #10 2.4% #11 1.0% #12 0.2% Tournament invites: 100.0% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #3 64.3% #44.4%13.7%32.0% #514.0%36.0%3.7% #622.5%34.3% #724.9%13.0% #817.3%2.9% #99.7%0.2% #104.9% #112.0% #120.3% Tournament invites:100.0%100.0%100.0%Yale#3 2.6%#4 11.2% #5 10.2% #6 11.3% #7 10.7% #8 14.0% #9 9.6% #10 5.9% #11 4.9% #12 6.0% #13 7.4% #14 5.5% #15 0.7% #16 0.1% #17 0.0% Tournament invites: 97.7% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #3 10.5% #4 0.5%44.0% #50.1%5.6%31.3% #62.0%17.9%12.7% #73.5%22.0%1.5% #87.7%27.4% #99.0%15.9% #108.1%7.7% #1111.1%2.8% #1217.7%0.2% #1322.2% #1416.4% #152.0% #160.2% #170.0% Tournament invites:93.2%100.0%100.0%Mass.-Lowell#3 17.7%#4 9.0% #5 15.0% #6 20.7% #7 19.2% #8 10.9% #9 5.7% #10 1.7% #11 0.1% Tournament invites: 100.0% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #3 0.9%69.8% #40.9%12.0%22.3% #59.8%32.7%7.5% #623.7%35.0%0.5% #730.7%15.5% #820.4%2.6% #910.9%1.1% #103.3%0.2% #110.2% Tournament invites:100.0%100.0%100.0%UND#3 5.2%#4 12.0% #5 15.1% #6 15.4% #7 22.3% #8 17.2% #9 8.9% #10 3.1% #11 0.7% #12 0.0% Tournament invites: 100.0% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #3 20.6% #4 2.7%45.4% #56.2%15.5%32.5% #617.6%25.1%1.5% #730.0%29.1% #826.3%16.4% #913.7%8.4% #104.9%2.5% #111.2%0.5% #120.1% Tournament invites:100.0%100.0%100.0%New Hampshire#5 0.1%#6 3.4% #7 9.8% #8 25.1% #9 38.3% #10 19.3% #11 3.9% #12 0.1% #13 0.0% Tournament invites: 100.0% n/aNotre Dame#3 2.8%#4 5.5% #5 3.6% #6 2.0% #7 1.8% #8 2.3% #9 6.0% #10 19.0% #11 14.7% #12 6.3% #13 10.2% #14 6.6% #15 9.0% #16 6.8% #17 2.8% #18 0.6% #19 0.0% Tournament invites: 83.8% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #3 11.0% #4 0.2%21.8% #5 0.8%13.5% #6 2.5%5.6% #7 3.8%3.3% #80.0%6.9%2.4% #91.8%12.9%7.3% #1015.6%16.4%28.6% #1122.9%6.3%6.5% #128.5%8.4%0.0% #132.6%35.6% #1410.2%6.1% #1518.0%0.1% #1613.6% #175.6% #181.2% #190.0% Tournament invites:67.7%100.0%100.0%Mankato#3 10.9%#4 9.4% #5 6.9% #6 8.4% #7 10.8% #8 14.6% #9 13.8% #10 14.2% #11 8.9% #12 2.0% Tournament invites: 100.0% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #3 43.5% #40.1%1.2%36.3% #51.3%9.2%15.6% #63.8%21.4%4.6% #78.7%25.7% #817.3%23.8% #921.2%12.8% #1026.0%4.9% #1117.4%0.9% #124.1% Tournament invites:100.0%100.0%100.0%Niagara#4 2.5%#5 6.9% #6 7.6% #7 5.2% #8 4.5% #9 6.5% #10 10.3% #11 17.1% #12 22.7% #13 15.3% #14 1.3% Tournament invites: 98.2% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #4 10.0% #5 27.8% #6 0.0%30.3% #7 0.7%20.2% #8 9.3%8.7% #90.2%23.3%2.5% #103.0%34.8%0.5% #1121.3%25.8% #1242.3%6.1% #1330.6% #142.6% Tournament invites:96.3%100.0%100.0%SCSU#4 3.7%#5 7.9% #6 6.9% #7 4.3% #8 1.9% #9 2.8% #10 8.6% #11 11.3% #12 22.8% #13 24.0% #14 5.8% Tournament invites: 97.4% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #4 14.8% #5 31.6% #6 27.7% #7 0.1%17.2% #8 0.8%6.8% #9 9.4%1.8% #10 34.2%0.2% #113.8%37.7% #1236.6%17.8% #1347.9% #1411.6% Tournament invites:94.7%100.0%100.0%Denver#8 0.1%#9 3.3% #10 14.9% #11 34.5% #12 32.4% #13 14.6% #14 0.2% Tournament invites: 99.1% n/aWestern Michigan#13 14.7%#14 59.2% #15 23.6% #16 2.3% #17 0.2% #18 0.0% Tournament invites: 64.9% n/aUnion#8 0.0%#9 0.1% #10 0.5% #11 2.8% #12 7.4% #13 9.7% #14 12.5% #15 30.5% #16 23.5% #17 5.9% #18 4.6% #19 1.9% #20 0.5% Tournament invites: 45.2% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #8 0.0% #9 0.4% #10 2.0% #11 11.3% #12 29.8% #13 0.6%37.8% #145.6%14.1%18.7% #1526.7%51.9% #1629.0%33.3% #1717.7% #1813.9% #195.6% #201.6% Tournament invites:19.1%33.1%100.0%UW#17 7.2%#18 19.4% #19 24.1% #20 22.0% #21 18.4% #22 8.4% #23 0.5% Tournament invites: 0.0% n/aProvidence#13 0.1%#14 1.2% #15 9.6% #16 9.0% #17 8.8% #18 12.2% #19 12.4% #20 13.0% #21 11.1% #22 7.6% #23 8.2% #24 5.4% #25 1.5% Tournament invites: 25.1% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #13 0.3% #14 4.7% #15 38.3% #16 1.9%33.9% #170.3%17.2%17.3% #184.1%35.1%5.6% #199.5%30.8% #2020.0%11.9% #2120.9%2.7% #2215.0%0.4% #2316.4% #2410.9% #253.0% Tournament invites:0.0%0.2%100.0%Boston University#12 0.0%#13 3.6% #14 5.1% #15 12.8% #16 7.3% #17 8.7% #18 19.5% #19 24.9% #20 13.2% #21 4.6% #22 0.4% Tournament invites: 25.8% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #12 0.0% #13 14.2% #14 0.1%20.2% #15 1.8%49.3% #16 14.4%14.7% #171.9%29.5%1.6% #1822.3%33.5% #1940.7%18.2% #2025.1%2.4% #219.1%0.1% #220.8% Tournament invites:0.0%3.2%100.0%Rensselaer#13 0.5%#14 2.7% #15 13.0% #16 38.0% #17 30.2% #18 14.2% #19 1.3% #20 0.1% Tournament invites: 11.8% n/aAlaska#16 0.3%#17 3.1% #18 9.0% #19 12.4% #20 13.3% #21 12.9% #22 11.6% #23 14.0% #24 16.3% #25 6.7% #26 0.4% Tournament invites: n/aCornell#18 0.4%#19 3.4% #20 5.7% #21 6.4% #22 14.0% #23 27.7% #24 29.0% #25 13.3% #26 0.1% Tournament invites: 0.0% n/aBrown#16 0.2%#17 3.7% #18 8.4% #19 10.8% #20 18.1% #21 20.0% #22 16.8% #23 4.7% #24 5.8% #25 8.6% #26 2.8% #27 0.1% #28 0.0% Tournament invites: 25.0% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #16 0.7% #17 15.0% #18 1.0%31.9% #190.1%9.0%28.2% #205.2%27.1%20.4% #2114.8%33.8%3.8% #2217.2%26.5%0.0% #2310.8%2.6% #2417.3% #2525.9% #268.3% #270.3% #280.0% Tournament invites:0.0%0.0%100.0%Dartmouth#18 0.1%#19 2.0% #20 7.2% #21 17.5% #22 30.6% #23 27.5% #24 12.4% #25 2.7% Tournament invites: 0.0% n/aRobert Morris#14 0.0%#15 0.8% #16 12.5% #17 28.2% #18 8.9% #19 1.9% #20 3.4% #21 4.6% #22 5.3% #23 8.0% #24 16.3% #25 9.4% #26 0.8% Tournament invites: 1.1% n/aCC#25 0.9%#26 5.1% #27 29.2% #28 43.7% #29 17.2% #30 3.3% #31 0.5% #32 0.0% Tournament invites: 0.0% n/aOhio State#17 1.3%#18 2.7% #19 4.8% #20 3.6% #21 4.5% #22 5.0% #23 6.4% #24 5.1% #25 3.9% #26 9.8% #27 4.2% #28 17.6% #29 18.1% #30 5.2% #31 6.3% #32 1.5% Tournament invites: 25.0% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #17 5.0% #18 10.8% #19 0.0%19.0% #20 0.5%13.9% #21 2.5%15.4% #22 6.2%13.6% #23 12.8%12.9% #24 15.3%5.3% #25 11.6%4.1% #260.2%38.7% #272.3%12.4% #2835.2% #2936.3% #3010.5% #3112.7% #323.0% Tournament invites:0.0%0.0%100.0%Ferris State#25 15.4%#26 47.9% #27 29.9% #28 6.1% #29 0.7% Tournament invites: 0.0% n/aSt. Lawrence#25 11.9%#26 21.7% #27 34.2% #28 22.1% #29 7.0% #30 2.0% #31 1.1% Tournament invites: 0.0% n/aNebraska-Omaha#27 0.0%#28 0.0% #29 22.8% #30 28.8% #31 31.4% #32 17.0% Tournament invites: 0.0% n/aMichigan#21 0.1%#22 0.3% #23 1.8% #24 6.3% #25 16.1% #26 0.9% #27 2.2% #28 8.6% #29 11.0% #30 1.9% #31 1.3% #32 0.6% Non-TUC 49.0% Tournament invites: 25.0% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #21 0.2% #22 1.1% #23 7.1% #24 25.0% #25 64.3% #26 1.2%2.2% #27 8.9% #28 34.4% #29 44.1% #30 7.8% #311.4%2.5% #320.6%1.1% Non-TUC98.0%0.0%0.0%Tournament invites:0.0%0.0%100.0%Connecticut#22 0.0%#23 1.1% #24 3.4% #25 9.8% #26 10.7% #27 0.0% #28 0.0% #29 6.6% #30 3.7% #31 8.8% #32 6.0% Non-TUC 49.9% Tournament invites: 25.0% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #22 0.1% #23 4.3% #24 13.7% #25 39.1% #26 42.8% #27 #28 0.1% #29 26.4% #30 14.7% #310.1%35.0% #320.2%23.8% Non-TUC99.7%0.0%0.0%Tournament invites:0.0%0.0%100.0%Holy Cross#27 0.1%#28 1.8% #29 16.4% #30 55.1% #31 26.2% #32 0.3% Tournament invites: 0.0% n/aCanisiusNon-TUC 100.0%Tournament invites: 25.0% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2Non-TUC100.0%100.0%100.0%Tournament invites:0.0%0.0%100.0%Mercyhurst#32 0.0%Non-TUC 100.0% Tournament invites: 25.0% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #32 0.1%Non-TUC100.0%100.0%99.9%Tournament invites:0.0%0.0%100.0%

Friday morning's reading if CC and Wisconsin win TeamPWR PossibilitiesOverallBy number of winsQuinnipiac#1 100.0%Tournament invites: 100.0% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #1100.0%100.0%100.0%Tournament invites:100.0%100.0%100.0%UMN#2 100.0%Tournament invites: 100.0% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #2100.0%100.0%100.0%Tournament invites:100.0%100.0%100.0%Miami#3 55.4%#4 34.8% #5 8.1% #6 1.7% #7 0.0% Tournament invites: 100.0% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #337.2%51.7%95.6% #445.2%44.4%4.4% #514.4%3.4% #63.2%0.5% #70.1% Tournament invites:100.0%100.0%100.0%Boston College#3 18.8%#4 23.9% #5 28.7% #6 18.9% #7 7.7% #8 2.0% #9 0.1% Tournament invites: 100.0% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #3 75.0% #421.1%28.5%25.0% #534.1%46.5% #627.5%20.6% #713.4%3.9% #83.7%0.4% #90.3% Tournament invites:100.0%100.0%100.0%Yale#3 1.4%#4 16.0% #5 21.4% #6 16.8% #7 12.1% #8 6.3% #9 3.9% #10 2.7% #11 2.7% #12 4.2% #13 6.4% #14 4.7% #15 1.2% #16 0.2% #17 0.0% Tournament invites: 96.3% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #3 5.6% #4 3.9%57.5% #53.0%29.7%32.3% #64.4%34.4%4.0% #78.6%21.8%0.7% #89.2%7.7% #99.3%2.0% #107.5%0.5% #118.1%0.0% #1212.5%0.0% #1319.2% #1414.0% #153.5% #160.6% #170.0% Tournament invites:89.0%100.0%100.0%Mass.-Lowell#3 18.0%#4 7.0% #5 16.9% #6 30.5% #7 17.9% #8 8.1% #9 1.5% #10 0.1% Tournament invites: 100.0% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #3 1.7%70.1% #4 10.2%17.9% #59.7%36.5%11.8% #641.8%38.3%0.2% #730.4%11.1% #815.1%2.0% #92.8%0.3% #100.1%0.0% Tournament invites:100.0%100.0%100.0%UND#5 2.8%#6 9.9% #7 27.2% #8 22.1% #9 21.7% #10 13.3% #11 3.0% #12 0.0% Tournament invites: 100.0% n/aNew Hampshire#5 0.5%#6 4.8% #7 15.2% #8 41.1% #9 33.3% #10 5.0% #11 0.1% Tournament invites: 100.0% n/aNotre Dame#3 6.3%#4 6.6% #5 1.7% #6 0.5% #7 2.3% #8 2.4% #9 7.8% #10 16.4% #11 13.5% #12 6.5% #13 8.4% #14 6.5% #15 10.8% #16 8.4% #17 1.5% #18 0.1% Tournament invites: 79.7% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #3 25.1% #4 26.5% #5 1.8%4.9% #6 1.9%0.1% #7 9.3% #80.4%8.8%0.0% #96.5%15.7%2.6% #1017.7%11.1%19.3% #1116.3%2.4%19.1% #127.6%8.7%2.2% #132.3%28.8%0.2% #147.9%10.3% #1521.1%1.2% #1616.9%0.0% #173.1% #180.3% Tournament invites:60.4%97.9%100.0%Mankato#5 0.0%#6 0.3% #7 1.2% #8 4.4% #9 19.1% #10 34.2% #11 26.2% #12 11.8% #13 2.6% #14 0.2% Tournament invites: 99.0% n/aNiagara#4 5.7%#5 10.5% #6 8.5% #7 7.0% #8 3.1% #9 2.3% #10 5.2% #11 11.9% #12 21.3% #13 21.4% #14 2.9% #15 0.2% Tournament invites: 93.5% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #4 22.7% #5 1.1%40.9% #6 9.1%25.1% #7 18.5%9.5% #8 10.8%1.7% #90.0%9.0%0.1% #101.7%17.5% #1112.7%22.3% #1237.5%10.2% #1342.1%1.4% #145.7% #150.3% Tournament invites:87.2%99.5%100.0%SCSU#3 0.2%#4 6.0% #5 9.4% #6 7.9% #7 9.4% #8 9.8% #9 5.0% #10 3.3% #11 7.6% #12 16.0% #13 18.3% #14 6.0% #15 1.1% Tournament invites: 91.1% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #3 0.8% #4 23.8% #5 1.2%36.5% #6 6.4%25.3% #7 26.5%10.9% #8 36.7%2.4% #90.2%19.3%0.2% #103.1%7.1% #1114.0%2.4% #1231.9%0.3% #1336.5%0.0% #1412.1% #152.2% Tournament invites:82.3%100.0%100.0%Denver#7 0.0%#8 0.8% #9 5.3% #10 18.9% #11 30.0% #12 30.1% #13 14.7% #14 0.2% Tournament invites: 97.0% n/aWestern Michigan#13 12.3%#14 52.5% #15 29.1% #16 6.1% #17 0.0% Tournament invites: 48.1% n/aUnion#9 0.0%#10 0.4% #11 2.7% #12 7.0% #13 9.4% #14 11.9% #15 26.8% #16 24.6% #17 7.5% #18 4.1% #19 3.2% #20 1.9% #21 0.4% #22 0.1% Tournament invites: 37.9% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #9 0.1% #10 1.7% #11 10.6% #12 28.1% #13 0.6%36.6% #144.4%11.4%22.9% #1521.6%47.0% #1628.0%36.8% #1717.1%4.3% #1812.4% #199.5% #205.6% #211.2% #220.2% Tournament invites:11.9%21.4%100.0%UW#10 0.4%#11 2.3% #12 3.0% #13 4.6% #14 9.5% #15 7.7% #16 11.7% #17 17.5% #18 21.1% #19 14.7% #20 6.1% #21 1.5% #22 0.1% Tournament invites: 26.3% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #10 1.4% #11 9.1% #12 12.1% #13 18.2% #14 2.0%36.1% #15 12.7%18.2% #160.1%41.6%4.8% #1720.6%28.7% #1836.8%10.7% #1927.3%4.2% #2012.1%0.1% #212.9% #220.1% Tournament invites:0.0%5.3%100.0%Providence#13 0.0%#14 0.7% #15 5.4% #16 9.6% #17 7.4% #18 9.5% #19 17.2% #20 17.3% #21 13.1% #22 9.3% #23 6.9% #24 2.7% #25 0.7% Tournament invites: 25.0% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #13 0.0% #14 2.9% #15 21.4% #16 2.0%36.4% #170.0%5.0%24.6% #185.3%18.5%9.2% #1914.2%36.2%4.1% #2020.9%26.1%1.4% #2120.7%11.0% #2218.1%1.2% #2313.8% #245.5% #251.4% Tournament invites:0.0%0.2%100.0%Boston University#13 2.0%#14 4.0% #15 11.6% #16 10.9% #17 9.7% #18 10.5% #19 20.7% #20 18.4% #21 8.9% #22 3.1% #23 0.3% Tournament invites: 25.8% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #13 7.9% #14 0.5%15.5% #15 3.3%43.2% #16 19.6%24.1% #17 30.1%8.5% #188.5%24.0%0.7% #1933.3%16.2% #2034.2%5.3% #2117.4%0.7% #226.0%0.2% #230.6% Tournament invites:0.0%3.2%100.0%Rensselaer#14 0.8%#15 6.1% #16 24.7% #17 34.0% #18 22.9% #19 8.9% #20 2.4% #21 0.3% Tournament invites: 5.0% n/aAlaska#16 0.2%#17 1.9% #18 5.1% #19 11.1% #20 15.4% #21 15.2% #22 15.0% #23 15.0% #24 12.0% #25 6.4% #26 2.4% #27 0.2% Tournament invites: 0.0% n/aCornell#19 0.9%#20 2.4% #21 4.2% #22 8.8% #23 19.6% #24 28.6% #25 24.3% #26 10.2% #27 1.1% Tournament invites: 0.0% n/aBrown#16 0.1%#17 0.8% #18 4.2% #19 10.5% #20 17.4% #21 20.4% #22 14.3% #23 8.0% #24 6.5% #25 6.2% #26 7.9% #27 3.0% #28 0.5% #29 0.1% Tournament invites: 25.0% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #16 0.3% #17 3.4% #18 16.9% #190.5%5.3%32.7% #204.2%22.6%26.2% #217.3%32.5%17.6% #228.3%25.8%3.0% #2313.4%8.5% #2413.5%4.9% #2518.1%0.5% #2623.6% #279.1% #281.6% #290.2% Tournament invites:0.0%0.0%100.0%Dartmouth#18 0.1%#19 2.4% #20 10.4% #21 23.0% #22 31.5% #23 22.0% #24 9.5% #25 1.1% Tournament invites: 0.0% n/aRobert Morris#15 0.0%#16 3.5% #17 19.7% #18 20.1% #19 6.5% #20 0.9% #21 1.9% #22 4.6% #23 7.2% #24 10.6% #25 15.9% #26 7.0% #27 1.9% Tournament invites: 0.2% n/aCC#18 0.1%#19 0.9% #20 2.6% #21 5.7% #22 7.7% #23 11.4% #24 15.4% #25 25.2% #26 26.2% #27 4.8% Tournament invites: 25.0% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #18 0.4% #19 3.5% #20 10.4% #21 2.1%20.6% #22 7.0%23.7% #231.5%15.9%26.7% #247.6%33.3%13.3% #2534.0%31.8%1.3% #2647.4%9.9%0.1% #279.5% Tournament invites:0.0%0.0%100.0%Ohio State#18 2.1%#19 3.0% #20 4.9% #21 5.3% #22 5.0% #23 6.3% #24 4.4% #25 4.4% #26 2.8% #27 8.1% #28 22.3% #29 25.1% #30 0.2% #31 6.1% Tournament invites: 25.0% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #18 8.2% #19 12.0% #20 0.0%19.7% #21 1.4%19.7% #22 5.4%14.8% #23 11.7%13.5% #24 12.7%4.9% #25 11.7%5.9% #26 9.7%1.3% #27 32.4% #2837.5%14.3% #2949.8%0.7% #300.4% #3112.3% Tournament invites:0.0%0.0%100.0%Ferris State#26 5.9%#27 44.0% #28 39.8% #29 9.6% #30 0.7% Tournament invites: 0.0% n/aSt. Lawrence#24 0.0%#25 0.1% #26 22.4% #27 28.3% #28 29.4% #29 16.7% #30 3.1% Tournament invites: 0.0% n/aNebraska-Omaha#29 20.3%#30 47.8% #31 20.8% #32 11.1% Tournament invites: 0.0% n/aMichigan#21 0.0%#22 0.2% #23 1.8% #24 6.5% #25 8.8% #26 7.5% #27 3.8% #28 8.0% #29 11.0% #30 2.4% #31 1.1% #32 0.6% Non-TUC 48.3% Tournament invites: 25.0% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #21 0.1% #22 0.8% #23 7.0% #24 26.0% #25 35.4% #26 30.1% #27 14.5%0.6% #28 32.0% #29 43.8% #30 9.7% #312.2% #321.1% Non-TUC96.6%0.0%0.0%Tournament invites:0.0%0.0%100.0%Connecticut#21 0.2%#22 0.3% #23 1.5% #24 3.6% #25 6.8% #26 7.8% #27 4.8% #28 0.0% #29 8.3% #30 12.2% #31 2.0% #32 2.5% Non-TUC 50.0% Tournament invites: 25.0% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #21 0.8% #22 1.2% #23 6.2% #24 14.3% #25 27.1% #26 31.0% #27 19.3% #28 #29 33.3% #30 48.9% #31 8.0% #32 9.9% Non-TUC100.0%0.0%0.0%Tournament invites:0.0%0.0%100.0%Holy Cross#29 8.9%#30 33.5% #31 46.1% #32 11.4% Tournament invites: 0.0% n/aCanisiusNon-TUC 100.0%Tournament invites: 25.0% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2Non-TUC100.0%100.0%100.0%Tournament invites:0.0%0.0%100.0%MercyhurstNon-TUC 100.0%Tournament invites: 25.0% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2Non-TUC100.0%100.0%100.0%Tournament invites:0.0%0.0%100.0%

Friday morning's reading if CC and Mankato win TeamPWR PossibilitiesOverallBy number of winsQuinnipiac#1 100.0%Tournament invites: 100.0% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #1100.0%100.0%100.0%Tournament invites:100.0%100.0%100.0%UMN#2 100.0%Tournament invites: 100.0% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #2100.0%100.0%100.0%Tournament invites:100.0%100.0%100.0%Miami#3 45.0%#4 34.7% #5 15.5% #6 4.3% #7 0.5% #8 0.0% Tournament invites: 100.0% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #327.6%37.6%87.1% #441.3%43.1%12.9% #523.1%15.7% #67.0%3.3% #70.9%0.3% #80.0% Tournament invites:100.0%100.0%100.0%Boston College#3 17.0%#4 15.3% #5 22.1% #6 22.8% #7 15.8% #8 5.4% #9 1.4% #10 0.3% #11 0.1% Tournament invites: 100.0% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #3 67.9% #46.2%19.2%29.7% #522.8%40.3%2.4% #630.8%29.5% #726.6%9.9% #810.1%1.1% #92.7% #100.5% #110.2% Tournament invites:100.0%100.0%100.0%Yale#3 3.0%#4 15.4% #5 15.7% #6 14.8% #7 12.6% #8 7.6% #9 3.9% #10 3.6% #11 4.7% #12 6.1% #13 7.5% #14 5.0% #15 0.1% #16 0.0% Tournament invites: 97.1% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #3 11.9% #4 4.7%53.5% #50.1%20.3%28.8% #61.8%30.9%5.1% #73.3%27.2%0.7% #87.3%12.5% #97.8%3.2% #109.6%1.0% #1113.7%0.2% #1218.4%0.0% #1322.5% #1415.0% #150.4% #160.0% Tournament invites:91.3%100.0%100.0%Mass.-Lowell#3 20.3%#4 7.9% #5 16.0% #6 23.8% #7 18.4% #8 10.0% #9 2.9% #10 0.6% #11 0.0% Tournament invites: 100.0% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #3 2.7%78.7% #40.7%16.8%13.3% #512.7%30.6%8.0% #631.6%31.7%0.0% #729.3%15.1% #818.8%2.5% #95.5%0.6% #101.2% #110.1% Tournament invites:100.0%100.0%100.0%UND#5 2.1%#6 5.0% #7 17.4% #8 23.6% #9 28.4% #10 18.5% #11 4.9% #12 0.2% Tournament invites: 100.0% n/aNew Hampshire#5 0.3%#6 4.9% #7 13.4% #8 35.8% #9 35.6% #10 9.7% #11 0.2% Tournament invites: 100.0% n/aNotre Dame#3 4.5%#4 5.5% #5 2.3% #6 0.9% #7 1.1% #8 1.6% #9 4.1% #10 19.6% #11 17.1% #12 6.9% #13 9.9% #14 6.6% #15 9.1% #16 8.7% #17 2.0% #18 0.2% Tournament invites: 81.0% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #3 18.1% #4 0.2%21.9% #5 0.6%8.7% #6 1.3%2.1% #7 4.4% #8 6.4%0.0% #90.5%12.6%2.7% #1015.1%17.5%30.5% #1123.2%6.7%15.4% #129.4%8.2%0.6% #133.0%33.5% #149.0%8.4% #1518.1%0.3% #1617.3% #174.0% #180.3% Tournament invites:62.6%98.6%100.0%Mankato#3 10.0%#4 11.7% #5 8.7% #6 9.2% #7 10.7% #8 8.8% #9 14.6% #10 15.5% #11 8.7% #12 2.0% Tournament invites: 100.0% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #3 39.9% #40.3%8.4%37.9% #50.9%15.9%17.3% #64.0%24.1%4.9% #710.0%23.1% #812.4%10.3% #923.2%12.1% #1028.1%5.5% #1117.1%0.6% #124.0% Tournament invites:100.0%100.0%100.0%Niagara#4 3.6%#5 8.3% #6 8.1% #7 7.3% #8 6.5% #9 2.5% #10 5.8% #11 17.5% #12 23.3% #13 15.6% #14 1.6% Tournament invites: 96.0% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #4 14.3% #5 0.3%32.9% #6 3.1%29.1% #7 12.2%17.0% #8 19.8%6.1% #9 9.3%0.6% #102.6%18.1% #1121.0%27.9% #1242.2%8.8% #1331.0%0.6% #143.1% Tournament invites:92.0%100.0%100.0%SCSU#3 0.2%#4 6.0% #5 9.1% #6 6.3% #7 2.8% #8 0.7% #9 2.0% #10 8.3% #11 10.6% #12 23.2% #13 24.9% #14 6.1% Tournament invites: 94.3% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #3 0.9% #4 23.8% #5 36.3% #6 25.3% #7 11.0% #8 0.2%2.4% #9 7.9%0.2% #10 33.1% #113.4%35.4% #1235.6%21.4% #1348.8%2.0% #1412.1% Tournament invites:89.3%98.4%100.0%Denver#8 0.1%#9 4.6% #10 17.8% #11 33.4% #12 30.4% #13 13.6% #14 0.1% Tournament invites: 97.8% n/aWestern Michigan#13 15.0%#14 59.3% #15 23.3% #16 2.5% Tournament invites: 55.8% n/aUnion#10 0.3%#11 2.8% #12 7.8% #13 9.8% #14 12.2% #15 30.8% #16 25.1% #17 5.9% #18 3.3% #19 1.4% #20 0.5% Tournament invites: 41.8% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #10 1.4% #11 11.3% #12 31.2% #13 0.7%38.2% #145.7%14.1%17.9% #1527.0%52.2% #1634.0%33.0% #1717.6% #189.9% #194.3% #201.5% Tournament invites:16.3%27.3%100.0%UW#17 7.7%#18 20.5% #19 25.5% #20 22.8% #21 17.1% #22 6.1% #23 0.3% Tournament invites: 0.0% n/aProvidence#13 0.0%#14 1.0% #15 9.3% #16 11.8% #17 8.1% #18 12.6% #19 12.5% #20 11.9% #21 9.9% #22 8.0% #23 8.1% #24 4.5% #25 2.0% #26 0.2% Tournament invites: 25.1% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #13 0.2% #14 4.0% #15 37.3% #16 2.7%44.3% #170.4%20.3%11.3% #184.9%37.8%2.9% #1910.8%28.2% #2019.3%9.1% #2118.9%1.6% #2215.9%0.2% #2316.3% #249.1% #254.0% #260.5% Tournament invites:0.0%0.3%100.0%Boston University#13 3.0%#14 5.1% #15 13.1% #16 7.4% #17 9.1% #18 17.5% #19 23.3% #20 12.9% #21 5.9% #22 2.5% #23 0.3% Tournament invites: 25.6% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #13 12.0% #14 0.1%20.4% #15 1.2%51.1% #16 12.9%16.6% #171.9%32.7% #1819.8%30.3% #1936.6%19.8% #2024.5%2.7% #2111.5%0.4% #225.0% #230.6% Tournament invites:0.0%2.4%100.0%Rensselaer#13 0.7%#14 3.0% #15 14.3% #16 43.1% #17 33.9% #18 4.5% #19 0.5% #20 0.0% Tournament invites: 10.6% n/aAlaska#16 0.1%#17 1.6% #18 6.6% #19 11.4% #20 12.5% #21 12.0% #22 13.5% #23 17.7% #24 14.6% #25 8.2% #26 1.8% #27 0.1% Tournament invites: 0.0% n/aCornell#18 0.5%#19 3.2% #20 4.4% #21 6.4% #22 13.0% #23 22.4% #24 25.4% #25 19.1% #26 5.6% Tournament invites: 0.0% n/aBrown#16 0.3%#17 4.4% #18 9.0% #19 10.8% #20 16.0% #21 15.2% #22 12.1% #23 6.6% #24 7.4% #25 6.0% #26 9.3% #27 2.7% #28 0.1% Tournament invites: 25.0% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #16 1.4% #17 17.4% #18 1.1%34.3% #190.3%8.6%28.7% #204.3%25.4%16.1% #217.8%29.1%2.2% #229.1%21.8%0.0% #2310.4%7.4% #2413.9%6.5% #2518.0%0.0% #2627.8% #278.2% #280.2% Tournament invites:0.0%0.0%100.0%Dartmouth#18 0.4%#19 3.1% #20 10.5% #21 22.1% #22 29.7% #23 22.0% #24 10.2% #25 1.9% Tournament invites: 0.0% n/aRobert Morris#16 1.2%#17 26.3% #18 21.5% #19 1.7% #20 1.1% #21 2.7% #22 5.4% #23 7.3% #24 14.0% #25 14.8% #26 3.8% #27 0.1% Tournament invites: n/aCC#18 0.9%#19 2.3% #20 3.7% #21 4.7% #22 5.8% #23 8.9% #24 12.8% #25 28.2% #26 27.4% #27 5.3% Tournament invites: 25.0% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #18 3.4% #19 9.3% #20 14.8% #21 0.8%18.2% #22 6.3%16.7% #230.8%11.9%22.4% #245.1%27.4%13.5% #2535.5%40.2%1.6% #2648.0%13.5%0.1% #2710.6% Tournament invites:0.0%0.0%100.0%Ohio State#17 0.9%#18 2.6% #19 4.1% #20 3.5% #21 4.1% #22 3.6% #23 4.6% #24 3.4% #25 5.9% #26 4.4% #27 8.0% #28 23.2% #29 23.8% #30 0.5% #31 6.2% #32 1.2% Tournament invites: 25.0% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #17 3.7% #18 10.2% #19 16.5% #20 14.1% #21 0.8%15.5% #22 1.5%13.0% #23 5.8%12.8% #24 8.1%5.4% #25 17.3%6.3% #26 15.4%2.3% #27 32.0% #2837.4%17.8% #2946.8%1.3% #300.9% #3112.3% #322.5% Tournament invites:0.0%0.0%100.0%Ferris State#26 3.6%#27 43.1% #28 40.6% #29 11.8% #30 0.9% Tournament invites: 0.0% n/aSt. Lawrence#25 0.0%#26 24.6% #27 29.7% #28 28.3% #29 14.7% #30 2.7% Tournament invites: 0.0% n/aNebraska-Omaha#28 0.0%#29 28.8% #30 49.0% #31 13.8% #32 8.3% Tournament invites: 0.0% n/aMichigan#21 0.0%#22 0.2% #23 1.1% #24 5.0% #25 9.0% #26 9.3% #27 4.2% #28 7.8% #29 10.2% #30 2.7% #31 0.6% #32 0.0% Non-TUC 49.8% Tournament invites: 25.0% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #21 0.2% #22 0.7% #23 4.6% #24 20.0% #25 35.9% #26 37.3% #27 15.4%1.3% #28 31.3% #29 40.9% #30 10.6% #310.3%1.8% #320.1% Non-TUC99.6%0.0%0.0%Tournament invites:0.0%0.0%100.0%Connecticut#22 0.1%#23 0.6% #24 2.8% #25 4.7% #26 10.1% #27 6.7% #28 0.0% #29 7.7% #30 11.6% #31 2.7% #32 3.1% Non-TUC 49.9% Tournament invites: 25.0% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2 #22 0.4% #23 2.3% #24 11.4% #25 18.9% #26 40.2% #27 26.8% #28 0.1% #29 30.6% #30 46.5% #310.1%10.5% #320.1%12.2% Non-TUC99.8%0.0%0.0%Tournament invites:0.0%0.0%100.0%Holy Cross#29 3.1%#30 32.6% #31 51.9% #32 12.4% Tournament invites: 0.0% n/aCanisiusNon-TUC 100.0%Tournament invites: 25.0% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2Non-TUC100.0%100.0%100.0%Tournament invites:0.0%0.0%100.0%MercyhurstNon-TUC 100.0%Tournament invites: 25.0% PWRWin 0Win 1Win 2Non-TUC100.0%100.0%100.0%Tournament invites:0.0%0.0%100.0%

As there are only two games Thursday, it's pretty easy to run the combinations and see what things will look like Friday morning. Here's the interesting stuff: Mankato -- can lock up an invite with a win Notre Dame -- if UND/Mankato win, can now clinch with just one win Niagara -- with any outcome other than CC/UW winning, can now clinch with just one win St Cloud -- with any outcome other than CC/Mankato winning, can now clinch with just one win Wisconsin -- out unless they win RPI -- drops from about a 10% chance to about 5% if Mankato loses Robert Morris -- already slim chance plummets (though not quite to 0) if CC wins Alaska -- out if CC wins Colorado College -- out unless they win

If Wisconsin had won that game, their outlook would look like this: UW #4 0.2% #5 0.6% #6 1.3% #7 1.6% #8 2.2% #9 3.3% #10 2.7% #11 2.0% #12 2.3% #13 3.0% #14 3.7% #15 4.6% #16 12.8% #17 24.0% #18 20.5% #19 11.8% #20 3.0% #21 0.5% #22 0.0% Tournament invites: 22.7% PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2 Win 3 #4 1.6% #5 4.9% #6 10.1% #7 12.7% #8 17.9% #9 26.5% #10 2.2% 19.0% #11 9.7% 6.0% #12 17.3% 1.2% #13 23.6% 0.2% #14 0.5% 28.9% 0.0% #15 9.3% 18.2% #16 9.9% 31.3% 0.2% #17 29.5% 37.0% #18 32.4% 17.2% #19 21.2% 4.6% #20 5.8% 0.2% #21 1.1% #22 0.0% Tournament invites: 0.5% 4.6% 70.0% 100.0%[/code]

Exactly. The things that hurt UND's PWR the most are teams just below it winning -- Niagara, St. Cloud, Mankato, Notre Dame. While those push down UND's PWR, they also result in autobids going to teams that would have made it at-large anyway. I've updated the blog post with the complete table based on wins. Remaining PWR/tournament possibilities

Thanks, I'm in the process of transitioning from just doing "win none" and "win all" to a column for each remaining game. The table in the post accidentally included the new headers despite still being the old data. The three columns in that table are "Overall", "Win none" and "Win all". I'm still working on all the in-between scenarios and hope to have that soon.

Be careful what you wish for... the easiest path is for a bunch of autoqualifiers to chew up spots. For the WCHA, one obvious one is Colorado College. The other ingredient is for teams ahead of Denver to do well and stay ahead of Denver (or a couple right below them to climb up). e.g. Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Canisius def. Niagara Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Mercyhurst def. Connecticut Atlantic Hockey Championship: Canisius def. Mercyhurst CCHA Semifinal #1: Michigan def. Miami CCHA Semifinal #2: Ohio State def. Notre Dame CCHA Championship: Michigan def. Ohio State ECAC Semifinal #1: Brown def. Quinnipiac ECAC Semifinal #2: Union def. Yale ECAC Championship: Brown def. Union ECAC Consolation: Yale def. Quinnipiac Hockey East Semifinal #1: Providence def. Mass.-Lowell Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston University def. Boston College Hockey East Championship: Boston University def. Providence WCHA Semifinal #1: St. Cloud State def. Minnesota State WCHA Semifinal #2: Colorado College def. Minnesota WCHA Championship: Colorado College def. St. Cloud State WCHA Play-in #1: Colorado College def. North Dakota WCHA Play-in #2: Minnesota State def. Wisconsin Would have BU, Brown, CC, Michigan, and Canisius steal spots, denying Denver despite being #12. Sorry about the lack of link, CHN's link feature doesn't seem to be working right now.