AJS

Since we're killing time in the off season, I'll toss out percentages, with the % chance UND has to win: Mississippi Valley State-WIN (100%) Washington-LOSS (0%) Sam Houston State-LOSS (1% - I realize this is extremely low, but right now, I don't see anyway they win this game) Idaho State-WIN (90%) Northern Colorado-WIN (75%) Montana-WIN (75% - I like that this game is (1) At home (2) After a bye week) Sac State-WIN (50% - On the road, but a less than hostile environment against a good team, I think they pull it off -- true turning point in the season) Weber State-WIN (60% - Good team, but home game -- need to win them all at home) Idaho-LOSS (20%) Portland State-WIN (90%) Northern Arizona-LOSS (50% - A lot will depend on the situation for both, if Northern needs this one as well, it's a tough place to play on the road) My swing games end up being Sac State and Northern Arizona. I see two games where I don't see UND really having a chance with Washington & SHSU. Run the table at home, beat UNC on the road and pick off either Sac State or Northern Arizona on the road and they finish 7-4 with no playoffs.

Pre-Fall practice predictions: Ceiling: 8-3 Prediction: 7-4 Floor: 6-5

It is an excuse, but it's also a fact. The way this team was trending in previous years and the roster they had in fall ball was considered better than the previous year. They way they started the year against Utah and Missouri State, they were a legitimate Top 10 team and then we all know what happened from there. The injuries were catastrophic to certain positional groups and it snowballed from there. I will agree with you partially on the overall depth of the team with certain positional groups. Let's look at the ILB position, where were the juniors and seniors last year? Losing O'Brien early was huge, but they went into fall camp with Rodgers (SO), Larson (true Freshman), Hunt (RS Freshman) and Rastas (RS Freshman). As great of a player as Larson will be, should you rely on a True Freshman as your #2 option? Everyone knew that was one of the positions of concern and after two games we instantly don't have the 3 best players, leaving Rastas as a starter much too early. On the other hand, at the FCS level (Non-NDSU), what is the expectation for depth? I know we all want every position to be 6 deep, but is that realistic? Even for great FCS programs, would many positional groups excel with both "starters" gone for the year and your down to that teams #4 / #5 option to start (when Hunt was injured as well)? Same can be said for the secondary last year, you have two All-Americans that played a total of 3 games. Would you consider Blubaugh (great recruit, offers from Wyo and UNC) or Canady (PWO Wisconsin) as bad players? Blubaugh had a tough time yes (understatement), but he was a true freshman. They are both going to be great players, they were forced into action much too early. As bad as last year was, what gives me a lot of optimism going forward is you had a lot of young guys get very valuable minutes. That will help this team this year and moving forward. It can be tough to remember how this team was trending before game 3 last year, but overall there has been a lot more good than bad over the past 3 years. This year is very important for the program and the coaching staff though. They need to bounce back and I truly believe they will. I have no doubt that defensively, they will bounce back and pick up where they left off in '15 and '16. It's hard to emphasis enough how much that will change the overall trajectory of the team. The ILB goes from what was possibly one of the worst in the FCS to a strong unit again. The CB will have talent and depth, the safety position will be better. Offensively, they have weapons, still concerned about play calling, but they will be adequate (will more upside than downside). I'm very excited for the 2018 football campaign.

This is my thought as well. UND has some serious offensive weapons on the offensive side of the ball, with just a tiny amount of creativity, UND's offensive would be a lot better. If a team is stacking the box, you can't fun it up the middle twice. My optimism on the offensive side comes from the fact like others have said, that coaching is a results driven profession. They will want to get this figured out. I've said it before and will continue to say it, but I'm very excited for the defense to return to form this year. It's going to be night and day difference.

Just to clarify, even though I think we're on the same page, I'm shocked he didn't make it based on my expectations going into the week. Based strictly on his numbers this week, I would have been shocked if he did make the All-Star game. One thing I enjoy about the early recruiting in hockey is being able to track a recruits progress from year to year. These Development Camps definitely give you a great idea of how someone is tracking against his age group. The closer they get to their draft year / incoming college year, the more important they are (01 Camp > 02 Camp > 03 Camp).

Kunz didn't make the All-Star game that will take place this morning. I'm definitely surprised, based on the reports out of the NTDP Camp earlier this summer, I would have thought he'd be one of the top handful of forwards this past week. Oh well, like was said, only one week.

The 03' camp roster is out, any local players to keep an eye on?

Final day of games at the US Development Camp (2002). Kunz with a pretty quiet week on the scoring front with only 2 assists in 4 games.

I've experienced a lot of disappointment as a fan over the years (throughout many sports), like most have, but I've never experienced anything close to what happened last year as a UND football fan. I've never been more excited for a year and to say I was blindsided by the result would be an understatement. It's really hard to comprehend how off the rails it went. Back to 2018, after reading the Top 5 Fr list and some included transfers, ect, I'm even more excited for this defenses potential. I'm sold on their front 7 going back to the norm, I have no doubt about that. I think that the CB will be solidified as well. That leaves one position group that is a question mark.

Offensively: Below Average (On a 1 to 10 scale about a 4) My big questions would be: Offensive Line QB - I think this is the most quality depth this team has had in a while at the QB position, the question would be can one of them be great? WR - Do we think one of the young receivers will be a true deep threat If you break down each offensive unit, I actually really like the depth and talent at QB, RB, WR and TE. Like everyone else has said, it really comes down to the O-Line. Will they be better next year? Like others, I think the Sophomore class can be a pretty special group. Will we see 4 Sophomores starting this year? Prediction: 5 or 6 (Average Offensively) Overall: I think this team bounces back, there's been a lot more good than bad during the Bubba era. Like I've written before, after the Missouri State game last year, I would have never believed they would have finished the way they did. I truly believe they will be back defensively, which will completely change everything about this team. I don't think I can emphasis enough how big the ILB difference will make from this year to last. All eyes on the offensive line next year, if they can be average, they should be ok. Prediction: 7-4

That's great news! Those three are all tracking very well. I can't get over how loaded the D-man pipeline is for UND. The potential D-man class of '20 could potentially have 3 of the Top 10 / 15 defensive recruits in the country in Miller, Reid and Kleven. Mancenelli keeps checking off the boxes as well. Solid first year in the USHL as a 16 year old, now named to the Hlinka team, now it's time to take the next step and be around a PPG guy in the USHL during his draft year. With UND's Top 2 Centers being Seniors this year, they are going to need Rizzo / Mancinelli to step into those roles as freshman.

Miller with a goal in the All-Star game. The US Roster for the Hlinka Gretzky Cup will be announced this afternoon.

Correct

Reid, Mancinelli and Miller were all selected to play in the All-Star game which starts at 9am.

Development camp came to an end tonight, the All-Star game takes place tomorrow morning, those rosters should be out later tonight. In 5 games: Mancinelli - 2G 3A Miller - 1G 2A Schmaltz - 2A Reid - No Points Note: Corey Pronman tweeted out today "Impressed this weekend by Luke Reid. Top prospect for 2020" We'll see in a few hours, but hopefully a coupe UND recruits make the All-Star game tomorrow.

Through 3 days: Mancinelli - 2 G 2 A Miller - No Points Schmaltz - 1 A Reid - No Points *Had no idea Reid was a dual citizen, so didn't look for him originally

Mismash - Jones - Kawaguchi Adams - Gardner - Weatherby JJ - Hoff - Hain Smith - Bowen - Senden Poolman - Bast Tychonick - JBD Shaw - Kierstad

I think we can pretty much end this discussion, because I don't know how anyone would disagree with this. It also lines up with my "it's more likely for a high end player to not make that kind of impact than it is for a role player to be anything outside of that" line of thinking. There are a lot of very responsible two way players who have high end skill, just because they can contribute offensively doesn't mean that they struggle on the defensive end. Having only two lines that can contribute offensively on a regular basis (see last year), isn't a winning formula.

Correct. I have never seen anyone say that you don't need players to fill different roles, because you definitely do. That being said, where this team is currently in trouble (in my opinion) is you should never recruit more "depth guys" than players you see being impact scorers. It's much more likely that a guy you see being an offensive player doesn't materialize into that role, then someone you bring in specifically for depth or to play a defensive game to be an impact scorer. I pick on this class a lot, but the soon to be junior class is a problem right now. Counting Johnson as a Forward (which I know he wasn't brought in to be), you have 5 guys in that class that combined for an entire 12 goals last year. You had Jost (elite), Hoff (expected to make an offensive impact) and then Bowen, Yon and Smith who based on their junior performance couldn't have been brought in as potential impact scorers, but more defensive / depth guys. That's 2 out of 5 who fit the "offensive" role. Hoff took a step back and now you have 4 guys from that original class that aren't bringing any offense. That's a problem. We'll wait and see, but luckily it's a smaller class, but when you look at the incoming Freshman it's a 2 / 2 split, I think that's a problem too. You need a mix, but you need more players that can score than can't.

No inside information, but I wouldn't worry about JBD not being here in the fall. Guys like JBD, Tychonick, Jost (next year Rizzo, Blaisdell) all made the conscious decision to play Junior A instead of CHL to go the college route. The guys UND has had trouble with all came from one program and had no local ties.

US Select 17 Development Camp (2001) starts next Tuesday. Mancinelli - Team Gold Miller - Team Red Schmaltz - Team Royal Always fun to see how the UND recruits match up against the best of their birth year (USNTDP members excluded)

First 2019 Draft Rankings I've seen: https://futureconsiderations.ca/top-rankings-2019/ 61. Blaisdell 63. Rizzo 75. Caulfield 77. Donovan 87. Mancinelli

Here's what I'll say about Kennedy, how he gets things done might need some fine tuning moving forward, but I couldn't be happier with the overall results. The agreement being the latest example, but also (I know a lot of factors played into it), but getting UND down to 17 sports was so important for the overall health of the athletic department. I think UND is in a great spot with Kennedy and the new addition of Chaves as AD.

I know UND hired a Title IX firm and already had to deal with the OCR (?) who found them in compliance, so I'm not sure why this lawsuit would be any different. For discussion sake though, let's say UND is found to not be compliant, even if that was the case, there isn't any circumstance that would force UND to actually add Women's hockey back, correct? Couldn't they add another Women's team (that's much cheaper) or just add more scholarships / improve financial backing to current programs? Like I mentioned, anytime you're dealing with activists, I get nervous, but I don't see any end game where UND is forced to bring back Women's hockey.

I'm sure it's an easy explanation, but I'm confused by this too. Why are they suing the NDUS and not UND directly? Women's hockey at UND went from something that was background noise to something that I actively despise. My opinion obviously doesn't matter, but as someone who feels that the UND athletic department is much stronger without Women's hockey, I'm slightly worried about this. Always am when you're dealing with activists, logic or common sense doesn't apply in some situations (like this one). I find some parallels to the Sioux nickname, where (at least I found) it to not be worth the headache anymore and I was happy when they moved on. This is very similar, will see how this goes, but will another group sue two years from now if this one doesn't go their way? Of course you have the vocal minority throwing a parade over this lawsuit, but I'd be interested to see how this is perceived by most North Dakota residents. I wouldn't think most are thrilled that public dollars (I'm guessing) is going to be used to fight this.