USD considering DIAA

[The Sicatoka]

One other thing, the CHA is a pathetic conference.

Yo "Cap", that's a little tough, eh?

The CHA is a "mid-major" college hockey conference. Pathetic must be a synonym.

[PCM]

Yo "Cap", that's a little tough, eh?

Let's not forget about UND's one-goal win over "pathetic" Bemidji State.

[The Sicatoka]

And who can forget Duluth's finest hours last season.

[Charger]

I have to agree with Captain on this one. Being a Gopher's fan I can't help but remember the 12-1 lashing the Gophs gave CHA regular season champ, Alabama-Huntsville.

[jimdahl]

I guess I don't see the point. Yes, CHA is a weaker conference than the WCHA. If the argument is that USD shouldn't consider joining D-I hockey because they wouldn't immediately be competitive with UND or UMN, that's ridiculous.

To bring the topic around by using an analogy, Big Sky is a weak mid-major conference, yet it's considered the dream destination for regional teams thinking of moving to D-I. If they could get into Big Sky, should NDSU (or UND) not consider moving to D-I because they'd be playing in a conference that can't compete with the ACC in basketball or the SEC in football? You can't demand everyone belong to a top conference, at least 50% have to be in the bottom half.

[BisonMav]

jimdahl Posted on May 1 2003, 03:41 PM

To bring the topic around by using an analogy, Big Sky is a weak mid-major conference, yet it's considered the dream destination for regional teams thinking of moving to D-IAA. If they could get into Big Sky*, should NDSU (or UND) not consider moving to D-IAA because they'd be playing in a conference that can't compete with the ACC in basketball or the SEC in football?

The basketball comparision is valid, but the Big Sky is a very competitive conference in I-AA football. Montana has a couple of recent NC's. The SEC is I-A football.

[jimdahl]

That's what I said -- the Big Sky is a weak mid-major conference so they'd get thumped by any good D-I basketball team or D-I football team (which is why they play D-IAA football instead of D-IA). In fact, my point was that despite being a mid-major, they're the dream target for even lower schools looking to move up to that level.

Similarly, I say the argument that USD shouldn't consider joining D-I hockey because they wouldn't be in the WCHA or immediately be competitive with UND or UMN is ridiculous.

[star2city]

Hockey would be an expensive sport for USD to start, but it would not be the continuous financial drain that a move to I-AA would be in the

[bisonguy]

---------- 1st Yr ___2nd Yr __ 3rd Yr __4th Yr

SDSU __ 1.5 mil __ 1.5 mil __ 1.5 mil __ 1.5 mil

Div I

All sports

USD DI _2.0-4.0 mil 0.7 mil __ 0.4 mil __ 0 mil

Hockey (w/practice

----------- facility)

96.3% of statistics are made up on the spot.

Here's a few questions:

How much does it take to run a decent hockey program with an arena lease?[ Isn't UND's men's hockey budget 1.9 M without an arena lease?]

Do the above numbers include the extra scholarships and expenses USD would incur for women's programs?

Would less than 5,000 for average attendance make a hockey team financially self-sufficient?

Wouldn't some Stampede fans travel to away games, thereby diminishing the fan base?

Would the Stampede and other local games cause scheduling problems and conflicts for USD hockey?

Would USD be able to collect a decent ticket price with other hockey teams in Sioux Falls?

[star2city]

And then there are those 3.7% that are not (by the way, those were not statistics but financial projections).

How is this for a basis:

- - - - Program - - # of - - Avg - - Ticket - - Ticket - - Seat Lic

Year - Cost - - - Games - - Att - - Price - - Revenue - Revenue - Loss

1 - - - - 1.3 M - - 18 - - 2500 - - 10 - - - 0.45 M - - 0.05 M - - - - 0.8 M

2 - - - - 1.3 M - - 18 - - 3000 - - 10 - - - 0.54 M - - 0.1 M - - - - 0.66 M

3 - - - - 1.5 M - - 18 - - 4000 - - 12.5 - - 0.9 M - - - 0.25 M - - - 0.35 M

4 - - - - 1.7 M - - 18 - - 5000 - - 15 - - - 1.35 M - - 0.35 M - - - - 0 M

How much does it take to run a decent hockey program with an arena lease?[ Isn't UND's men's hockey budget 1.9 M without an arena lease?]

Terms of an arena lease often depend on who retains concessions. In this case, it is assumed USD gets no cut.

Do the above numbers include the extra scholarships and expenses USD would incur for women's programs?

Yes. But the scholarships would be phased in over time. Considering what MAAC hockey schools spend on their programs, the budget above is probably overly generous. (A CHA school budget should be much much less than UND's).

[Charger]

And then there are those 3.7% that are not    (by the way, those were not statistics but financial projections).

How is this for a basis:

- - - -  Program - - # of - -  Avg - - Ticket - - Ticket - - Seat Lic 

Year -  Cost - - -  Games - - Att - -  Price - -  Revenue -  Revenue - Loss

1 - - - - 1.3 M - - 18 - - 2500 - - 10 - - - 0.45 M - - 0.05 M - - - - 0.8 M

2 - - - - 1.3 M - - 18 - - 3000 - - 10 - - - 0.54 M - - 0.1 M - - - - 0.66 M

3 - - - - 1.5 M - - 18 - - 4000 - - 12.5 - - 0.9 M - - - 0.25 M - - - 0.35 M

4 - - - - 1.7 M - - 18 - - 5000 - - 15 - - - 1.35 M - - 0.35 M - - - - 0 M

Terms of an arena lease often depend on who retains concessions. In this case, it is assumed USD gets no cut.

Yes. But the scholarships would be phased in over time. Considering what MAAC hockey schools spend on their programs, the budget above is probably overly generous. (A CHA school budget should be much much less than UND's).

Unless you have insider information or have completed a comprehensive study on this subject all of these numbers are pointless.

[The Sicatoka]

Let me take a swing at the point 'star2city' is trying to make:

Take the average school in a DII power conference. Their choice is (a) move up to Division I(AA), or (b) add Division I hockey but overall Division II status.

Going Division IAA has upfront costs, most importantly those associated with conference and travel, facilities upgrades, and scholarships (mens and womens). Estimates of improvals in "the gate" (attendance) are that of roughly a total of 1000 new patrons at all games, all sports, per year (based on NDSU's CSL report estimates).

Going Division II with Division I hockey has upfront costs, most importantly those associated with conference and travel, facilities upgrades, and scholarships (mens and womens). Estimates of "the gate" (attendance) would be roughly half the gate of the existing tenant of the proposed playing facility, namely 2500 average during the first season. The new tenant by its name would have better ties to the community upon inception than those of the existing tenant at its inception (and it survived) which would serve as an attendance positive as well.

Facilities? Either you need a practice rink or you need to make sure all the other facilities (baseball/softball fields, courts, FB fields) are DI calibre.

Specifically looking at the travel/conference issue: All DI teams must play other DI teams. Regional logistics dictate that most of that travel (for everything from FB to tennis and swimming) must be done by air travel due to the lack of DI competition within a reasonable driving distance. Alternatively, hockey offers numerous (albeit most likely non-conference) opponents within a drivable range. Plus, your other (DII) teams would retain opponents within drivable range. Translated: It's cheaper to drive your hockey team(s) by bus (and occasionally have to fly them) than to fly all of your teams nearly everywhere.

Scholarships? If you go from the DII 36 FB scholarships to the 63 DIAA FB number, you add 27 mens scholarships, which means you must also add 27 womens scholarships (and you many not even have room to do that in existing teams within existing limits). Adding hockey adds 18 mens (and potentially 18 womens scholarships, which could turn out to be in hockey at some point). Simple math says 27 times 2 is more costs to the school than 18 times 2.

Translating all of the above: For roughly the same facilities costs (be they improvements, renovations, or new construction), and most likely lesser overall travel costs, and equivalent overall scholarship costs, the hockey approach offers more immediate payback in fan gate plus more potential long-term payback in that "new" hockey fans may be created where "new" football/basketball fans are very difficult to create in this region.

Looking at this from a historical "what has worked for my peers" approach: MSU-Mankato, SCSU, UN-Omaha, and Bemidji State have all taken similar approaches, with the singular best comparator being UNO. UNO started with no previous program and went immediately DI. UNO currently uses hockey as a revenue positive basis for its overall athletics budget after playing DI hockey for less than a decade.

Moral of the story: It's all about the Benjamins. Which model is going to work?

[bisonguy]

star2city,

Thanks for the breakdown on the numbers. I think the attendance numbers are a little high for the third and fourth years, though. If USD could pull off those numbers, it would be a major accomplishment. (not to say it couldn't be done, just with a lot of hard work and promoting)

Let it be known that DI BB receives money from the tourney, and DIAA FB receives money from the BCS. Not a lot, but more than DII BB and FB receives (none).

[jimdahl]

I think the attendance numbers are a little high for the third and fourth years, though. If USD could pull off those numbers, it would be a major accomplishment. (not to say it couldn't be done, just with a lot of hard work and promoting)

That's what I think is great about having a starting framework based on similar programs (thanks for all the legwork, star2city!) We now realize that they'll either have to sell 5000 tickets at $15 in year 5, or they'll have to somehow reduce costs below $1.7M to break even.

I actually feel like this framework has reinforced my point that hockey is an expensive program to run. Most cost-cutting solutions (e.g. scholarship reductions) can also hurt revenues. Sure, lots of schools manage to make money by selling more than 5000/18/$15 (such as UND's obscene 11000/24), but it's certainly no guarantee in SD. USD's 2002 football attendance was only 4000 and BB was 2500.

[Charger]

Does anybody know what the average attendance for Stampede games are?

[jimdahl]

I don't know, but I have an Internet USHL.com tells me that Stampede average attendance is 4129.

[NDSU grad]

Scholarships? If you go from the DII 36 FB scholarships to the 63 DIAA FB number, you add 27 mens scholarships, which means you must also add 27 womens scholarships (and you many not even have room to do that in existing teams within existing limits). Adding hockey adds 18 mens (and potentially 18 womens scholarships, which could turn out to be in hockey at some point). Simple math says 27 times 2 is more costs to the school than 18 times 2.

I think you make some good points except for the scholarships. I don't believe there is anything actually written on paper in Title IX legislation that mandates equal scholarships. There is alot of wording about having equal facilities, the same number of coaches for a particular men and women's sport, etc. I have also heard that men and women's scholarships must be equivocal (sp) to the student body ratio. If this is true, then in NDSU's case no additional women's scholarships would be necessary even after the addition of 27 additional football scholarships. This is based on complete funding of sports that NDSU already sponsors. I totalled them up and after the additional 27 football scholarships NDSU would have 114.87 scholarships for the men and 75 for the men. That's about a 1.5:1 ratio, which is pretty close to the male:female student body ratio (last data I've seen on that is 58% to 42%). But I guess my main point is that all anybody says (including myself) is pure conjecture and probably doesn't really mean a hill of beans.

[The Sicatoka]

I have also heard that men and women's scholarships must be equivocal (sp) to the student body ratio.  If this is true, then in NDSU's case no additional women's scholarships would be necessary even after the addition of 27 additional football scholarships.

Unfortunately, this is not true in the specific case you mention.

From NDSU's Carr Sports Associates report:

NDSU is currently in compliance with Title IX as it pertains to athletic financial assistance. However, if the institution elected to maximize the number of football scholarships allowed for Division I-AA football, a comparable number of women's scholarships will have to be added.

27 times 2.

[star2city]

Moral of the story: It's all about the Benjamins. Which model is going to work?

Well said, Sicatoka.

There is one more model that would possibly be appropriate for a school like Augustana:

Drop football or drop scholarship football, use the savings to move to Div I, and emphasize the one remaining revenue sport: basketball. Vikings basketball could move to the Sioux Falls Arena, if there is space after USD hockey ( ). The power of the Mid-Con Conference, Valparaiso, is also a private Lutheran college in a Midwestern city with less resources than Sioux Falls. This model is not nearly as far-fetched as it may sound as it is used by most of the Catholic Div I schools in the country.

For USD, the loss of relevance in the Sioux Falls media (and thereby the whole state of South Dakota) if SDSU moves up is a major motivating factor. Rapidly growing Sioux Falls has got to have the largest concentration of USD alumni anywhere, so it would make sense to bring some games to its graduates, many of whom would go even just because it is USD.

[star2city]

USHL.com tells me that Stampede average attendance is 4129.

If only Friday/Saturday games were considered, the average would almost certainly be over 5000 for those nights. Adding in perhaps 500 alumni with spouse or family that would go just to support USD, a 6000 attendance figure seems almost attainable (but with alot of work to get there). Schedule a series with UNO, whose fans really can't travel to any away games, and the Sioux Falls Arena would probably be close to a sell out (8000). Without a doubt there would be high level of risk, but the possibility of a cash generating sport exists with a fallback solution: drop hockey. The Div IAA option would only bleed cash out of USD and the fallback solution to Div II would be more tramatic.

[NDSU grad]

Sic,

I guess I should have the report more thoroughly. Their statement would seem to contradict Title IX guidelines set fort by the NCAA, though. At any rate, I'm way off topic so I'll leave it up to the NDSU athletic department.

[jimdahl]

Adding in perhaps 500 alumni with spouse or family that would go just to support USD, a 6000 attendance figure seems almost attainable (but with alot of work to get there).

I agree that being affiliated with a school should increase paid attendance over what a junior league team gets. Here's a question to which I should know the answer but don't: Do small programs like the CHA schools charge their students for admission? Students will clearly play a role in attendance, but I don't know if there will be much of a revenue impact from that attendance.

[star2city]

I agree that being affiliated with a school should increase paid attendance over what a junior league team gets. Here's a question to which I should know the answer but don't: Do small programs like the CHA schools charge their students for admission? Students will clearly play a role in attendance, but I don't know if there will be much of a revenue impact from that attendance.

If USD chose to add hockey in Sioux Falls, student attendance would almost certainly be abysmal. The funding would have to be from alumni sources, not from student fees, but the upside is that almost all the tickets would be full price.

[Charger]

I agree that being affiliated with a school should increase paid attendance over what a junior league team gets.

I don't know if I agree with that. The Stampede has excelent marketing in Sioux Falls, and many people still think it's a semi pro team (shows what most of SF knows about hockey). I also do not think you would get much for alumni at the games. I don't think they would be more inclined to come than the general public just because the team has USD on their jerseys. Hockey was not part of their college life and unless they are hockey fans they would not be inclined to go to games. An average attendance of 6000 would never happen, especially if the Stampede were still around. They only way they would draw even close to the Stampede numbers is if the Stampede left SF and it was the only hockey team at the arena, and with the success the Stampede has had, I don't see them moving on. If USD did add hockey it would be a flop. I've lived in SD my whole life and played youth hockey for 13 years, and it's just not very popular here.

[star2city]

Charger:

If your school, SDSU, was considering playing hockey in Sioux Falls, what would your response be?

As far as hockey not being part of alumni history, sure, this is true. But people and cultures change over time. For many SDSU alumni, women's basketball was not at all part of their college life (and was scoffed at by some when first introduced), but now it is deeply imbedded.

For the largest and fastest-growing city in the Dakotas, it would seem that Sioux Falls would be a logical spot for some type of Div I entertainment. I would certainly admit that basketball is more generally followed there, but why does the Stampede have a larger following than the SkyForce?

The Stampede and USD hockey probably couldn't co-exist long-term, but there is something about hockey that creates addicts among a certain percent of the population, even if they have never seen the game before. To me, 5000 attending a USD hockey game is (only 1 out of 30 Sioux Falls people) not beyond reach. I am aware of medium-sized Southern cities in the ECHL where 1 in 20 go to hockey games.