MidCon Doomed?

[star2city]

When the NCAA lifted its moratorium on allowing new DI schools, it placed onerous restrictions on the newly reclassified schools. The intent of this legislation was to limit the number of new DI schools and prevent formation of new conferences. An intended byproduct of the new rules are to (1) force weaker conferences to have more teams to keep their autobid - which in turn reduces the chances of an NCAA appearance for the smaller school and reduces their payout and competitiveness and (2) kill off a few weaker conferences autobids so that more at-large bids are granted to major conferences. Another example of a money and power grab by your friendly NCAA/Bowl Coalition partnership.

Here's the NCAA NCAA bylaw

"31.3.4.3 Additional Requirements, Men's Basketball. The member conference must include seven core institutions. For the purposes of this legislation, core refers to an institution that has been an active member of Division I the eight preceding years. Further, the continuity-of-membership requirement shall be met only if a minimum of six core institutions have conducted conference competition together in Division I the preceding five years in men's basketball. There shall be no exception to the five-year waiting period. Further, any new member added to a conference that is satisfying the continuity of membership requirements shall not represent the conference as the automatic qualifier until the institution satisfies the requirement for a core member (i.e., active member of Division I for eight years.) Any new member added to a member conference that satisfies these requirements shall be immediately eligible to represent the conference as the automatic qualifier."

A new DI school effectively has two hurdles to pass: five years to become a DI member and an additional eight years to become a DI core member. Conferences need to ensure "core" members stay well above six in the event of a defection.

The earliest UND could be a DI eligible member is 2011-12 (if it declares June 1st). UND wouldn't be a core member until 2019-20. NDSU and SDSU wouldn't be core members until 2016-17. A conference really has to have a long-term horizon and firm membership in order to accept any of us.

(continued)

[The Sicatoka]

My 2004-05 manual says the eight-year thing was eliminated.

31.3.4.3 Additional Requirements, Men

[star2city]

UND shouldn't be pursuing conferences that may not even have an autobid in a few years. An impending Big East split as well as an MWC expansion will likely cause more dominos to fall in a few years. Although there are a number of different scenarios, the effect on the lower level conferences is much more predictable than the actual teams moving. For example, if the Big East added Memphis or East Carolina rather than Central Florida, the effects on the lower conferences stay the same. Same for the MWC if it choose Houston rather than UTEP, CUSA will still be hunting for a team.

Here's what can be reasonably expected:

2009-10

-->Big East Football - Adds Central Florida (CUSA )

-->Big East Basketball - Adds Xavier, Dayton, UMass (all of Atlantic 10)

-->Mountain West - adds UTEP (CUSA)

* Mountain West - adds Boise St, Fresno St (both WAC) if they help get BCS status

Atlantic 10 - Adds Loyola (Chicago), Butler, Detroit (all of Horizon) to maintain is presence in the Midwest

Horizon - adds Oakland, IUPUI (both of MidCon) to maintain presence in Indianapolis and Detroit

CUSA - adds Middle Tennessee (Sunbelt)

adds Louisiana Tech (WAC)

Sunbelt - adds Texas State (Southland)

WAC - needing one - adds UC-Davis or Sac St.

- needing three - adds Davis and Sac and one of the following: Portland St, NAU, Cal Poly

(a WAC doomsday scenario is Hawaii becoming a football independent and joining the Big West for its strength in volleyball and baseball PLUS San Jose St dropping football and joining Big West - the WAC would need five teams)

Bottom line:

MidCon core members remaining:

Oral Roberts

Centenary

W Illinois

UMKC

Southern Utah

MidCon loses its autobid as it would no longer have six core members together for five years.

Either IPFW or UTPA would get MidCon back to six core members in 2012 and a restored autobid, but that assumes no other school leaves (which is a reasonably large assumption). The MidCon really needs both IPFW and UTPA for ensuring its future survival. Since NDSU and SDSU would only qualify as core members in 2016-7, they do not help the MidCon as much as IPFW and UTPA would. Expect IPFW and UTPA to both get bids. NDSU and/or SDSU could still get offers, but because they are not "core" members, they are not as strategically important for the MidCOn's future survival.

Big Sky core members remaining:

Montana

Montana St

Idaho St

Weber St

E Wash

NAU or Portland St

Even if Montana changed its mind on IA and moved up (rather than Portland St or NAU), the Big Sky would still maintain six core members. Only in the very unlikely event that the WAC totally implodes (losing Hawaii and San Jose St), would the Big Sky lose its basketball autobid.

UNC: core member in 2016

NDSU/SDSU core member in 2017

UND: core member in 2019

The Big Sky option has much less risk and really is now the only option for a DI UND. I'm sure NDSU and SDSU understands those implications also. The Big Sky really only wants expansion for the 2008-9 season, so its not in its interests to rush.

[star2city]

My 2004-05 manual says the eight-year thing was eliminated.

Read the "Rationale" part of the changes to 31.3.4.3 in the link you gave. It talks about why eight years was eliminated.

The eight years after the five year transition was eliminated for eligibility in an autobid conference. A new DI school that is independent is still not eligible for the NCAA men's basketball tournament for 13 years (5 transition and eight after). To be a core member still takes 13 years.

[aff]

Thats an interesting scenario. I had a couple of points though. First, the A-10, wouldn't they be just as likely to attempt to grab a few MVC schools as horizon schools? Southern Illinios, or Bradley maybe? These seem to have as good of a history as any of the horizon schools. If that happens, SDSU and NDSU may find themselves in a position that they always dreamed of, competing for a missouri conference position.

Second, why do you think that schools from the horizon would be interested in the A-10? I know right now its regarded as a "high major", but it isn't all that much better than the horizon, with its recent success. Right now the schools in the conference have a great bus league setup, why would they want to give that up for way more travel, with schools that don't look as much like themselves as the horizon with the addition of valpo looks like.

I guess my real point here is that you have a pretty long prediction stream there, and I doubt that anybody will be deciding there conference future like that. I do know for a fact that SDSU and NDSU in the mid con right now is a better bet for Division I success then being an independent, and being in the mid con is a better bet for division I success than being in the NCC.

[star2city]

Thats an interesting scenario. I had a couple of points though. First, the A-10, wouldn't they be just as likely to attempt to grab a few MVC schools as horizon schools? Southern Illinios, or Bradley maybe? These seem to have as good of a history as any of the horizon schools. If that happens, SDSU and NDSU may find themselves in a position that they always dreamed of, competing for a missouri conference position.

Second, why do you think that schools from the horizon would be interested in the A-10? I know right now its regarded as a "high major", but it isn't all that much better than the horizon, with its recent success. Right now the schools in the conference have a great bus league setup, why would they want to give that up for way more travel, with schools that don't look as much like themselves as the horizon with the addition of valpo looks like.

I guess my real point here is that you have a pretty long prediction stream there, and I doubt that anybody will be deciding there conference future like that. I do know for a fact that SDSU and NDSU in the mid con right now is a better bet for Division I success then being an independent, and being in the mid con is a better bet for division I success than being in the NCC.

The Atlantic 10 is mostly a collection of very urban Catholic and private schools. Loyola (Chicago) and Detroit (Mercy) are both Catholic and Butler is private. They fit the Atlantic 10 profile perfectly. MVC private schools like Evansville, Bradley, Drake, and Creighton fit the Catholic/private needs, but aren't in large enough metro areas relative to the other A10 schools.

Oakland was attempting to get into the Horizon on this expansion (Detroit blocked them). IUPUI supposedly has a new arena coming on line. The Horizon will want to stay in the Detroit and Indianapolis markets and it already has Chicago covered with Ill-Chicago.

[DI IN FARGO]

UND shouldn't be pursuing conferences that may not even have an autobid in a few years. An impending Big East split as well as an MWC expansion will likely cause more dominos to fall in a few years. Although there are a number of different scenarios, the effect on the lower level conferences is much more predictable than the actual teams moving. For example, if the Big East added Memphis or East Carolina rather than Central Florida, the effects on the lower conferences stay the same. Same for the MWC if it choose Houston rather than UTEP, CUSA will still be hunting for a team.

Here's what can be reasonably expected:

2009-10

-->Big East Football - Adds Central Florida (CUSA )

-->Big East Basketball - Adds Xavier, Dayton, UMass (all of Atlantic 10)

-->Mountain West - adds UTEP (CUSA)

* Mountain West - adds Boise St, Fresno St (both WAC) if they help get BCS status

Atlantic 10 - Adds Loyola (Chicago), Butler, Detroit (all of Horizon) to maintain is presence in the Midwest

Horizon - adds Oakland, IUPUI (both of MidCon) to maintain presence in Indianapolis and Detroit

CUSA - adds Middle Tennessee (Sunbelt)

adds Louisiana Tech (WAC)

Sunbelt - adds Texas State (Southland)

WAC - needing one - adds UC-Davis or Sac St.

- needing three - adds Davis and Sac and one of the following: Portland St, NAU, Cal Poly

(a WAC doomsday scenario is Hawaii becoming a football independent and joining the Big West for its strength in volleyball and baseball PLUS San Jose St dropping football and joining Big West - the WAC would need five teams)

Bottom line:

MidCon core members remaining:

Oral Roberts

Centenary

W Illinois

UMKC

Southern Utah

MidCon loses its autobid as it would no longer have six core members together for five years.

Either IPFW or UTPA would get MidCon back to six core members in 2012 and a restored autobid, but that assumes no other school leaves (which is a reasonably large assumption). The MidCon really needs both IPFW and UTPA for ensuring its future survival. Since NDSU and SDSU would only qualify as core members in 2016-7, they do not help the MidCon as much as IPFW and UTPA would. Expect IPFW and UTPA to both get bids. NDSU and/or SDSU could still get offers, but because they are not "core" members, they are not as strategically important for the MidCOn's future survival.

Big Sky core members remaining:

Montana

Montana St

Idaho St

Weber St

E Wash

NAU or Portland St

Even if Montana changed its mind on IA and moved up (rather than Portland St or NAU), the Big Sky would still maintain six core members. Only in the very unlikely event that the WAC totally implodes (losing Hawaii and San Jose St), would the Big Sky lose its basketball autobid.

UNC: core member in 2016

NDSU/SDSU core member in 2017

UND: core member in 2019

The Big Sky option has much less risk and really is now the only option for a DI UND. I'm sure NDSU and SDSU understands those implications also. The Big Sky really only wants expansion for the 2008-9 season, so its not in its interests to rush.

Can Be Reasonably expected?

Which is a reasonably large assumption?

Holy Crap this whole post is nothing but speculation and you talk about it almost as fact. Furthermore you talk about UND moving up? What world do you live in? You have no idea what may or may not happen but then again maybe you have a direct line to Miss Cleo's prison Cell

[star2city]

P.S.

The reason the Horizon added a tenth team in Valpo is to protect itself from the loss of three teams (i.e. Butler, Detroit, Loyola). After losing three members, seven members and six core members still protect its autobid. Horizon leadership has a pretty good clue of what going down, so they prepared for it. When/if the Atlantic 10 takes their team, the Horizon would quickly move to get back to at nine. If it hadn't added Valpo, the Horizon would be scrambling in three years.

[star2city]

Can Be Reasonably expected?

Which is a reasonably large assumption?

Holy Crap this whole post is nothing but speculation and you talk about it almost as fact. Furthermore you talk about UND moving up? What world do you live in? You have no idea what may or may not happen but then again maybe you have a direct line to Miss Cleo's prison Cell

If its too intellectually challenging for you, you might consider Bisonville.com.

[DI IN FARGO]

If its too intellectually challenging for you, you might consider Bisonville.com.

You have no sense of humor at all and if you can't see the connection to your post and pure speculation then your certainly must be a Miss Cleo customer. Or maybe your just close personal friends with everyone in the know in each conference. Your post rambles on like the red river to Winnipeg and you talk about it all so "matter of fact" that its hilarious. Then you make snide ignorant remarks about Bisonville because someone points out the fact that your post is purely speculation. Take a chill pill.

[jimdahl]

The Atlantic 10 is mostly a collection of very urban Catholic and private schools. Loyola (Chicago) and Detroit (Mercy) are both Catholic and Butler is private. They fit the Atlantic 10 profile perfectly. MVC private schools like Evansville, Bradley, Drake, and Creighton fit the Catholic/private needs, but aren't in large enough metro areas relative to the other A10 schools.

As an A-10 alum (it's important to throw out useless credentials when speculating wildly), the school most frequently mentioned in the last expansion was BU. Mass has rumbled wanting to go D-I football, but I'd be somewhat surprised to see them leave otherwise. Though the Big East split would certainly echo through the A-10, keep in mind that we're currently at 14 so wouldn't necessarily need to replace two lost schools immediately.

Only because of recent underperformance in the A10 and overachieving by UW-Milwaukee could Horizon look close to A10. Atlantic 10 has 20 years of consistent top-tier tradition. Given that, the reason top Horizon schools would want to jump to A10 is to gain stronger conference opponents. Just look at how GW got robbed in this year's tournament seeding to realize why...

[aff]

As an A-10 alum (it's important to throw out useless credentials when speculating wildly), the school most frequently mentioned in the last expansion was BU. Mass has rumbled wanting to go D-I football, but I'd be somewhat surprised to see them leave otherwise. Though the Big East split would certainly echo through the A-10, keep in mind that we're currently at 14 so wouldn't necessarily need to replace two lost schools immediately.

Only because of recent underperformance in the A10 and overachieving by UW-Milwaukee could Horizon look close to A10. Atlantic 10 has 20 years of consistent top-tier tradition. Given that, the reason top Horizon schools would want to jump to A10 is to gain stronger conference opponents. Just look at how GW got robbed in this year's tournament seeding to realize why...

Those are good points, and you also bring up another good point. Starcity, what about the chances of the A-10 or horizon poaching members of the colonial for their conferences? I would think a final four by one of those schools would really look nice in one of those conferences.

[aff]

You have no sense of humor at all and if you can't see the connection to your post and pure speculation then your certainly must be a Miss Cleo customer. Or maybe your just close personal friends with everyone in the know in each conference. Your post rambles on like the red river to Winnipeg and you talk about it all so "matter of fact" that its hilarious. Then you make snide ignorant remarks about Bisonville because someone points out the fact that your post is purely speculation. Take a chill pill.

Give the guy a break. I can see your point about talking about it matter of factly, but besides that what do you want. Its May, what do you want to talk about, how the football season is going? Right now message boards are about evenly divided between wild speculation and whos marching band is better.

[star2city]

As an A-10 alum (it's important to throw out useless credentials when speculating wildly), the school most frequently mentioned in the last expansion was BU. Mass has rumbled wanting to go D-I football, but I'd be somewhat surprised to see them leave otherwise. Though the Big East split would certainly echo through the A-10, keep in mind that we're currently at 14 so wouldn't necessarily need to replace two lost schools immediately.

Only because of recent underperformance in the A10 and overachieving by UW-Milwaukee could Horizon look close to A10. Atlantic 10 has 20 years of consistent top-tier tradition. Given that, the reason top Horizon schools would want to jump to A10 is to gain stronger conference opponents. Just look at how GW got robbed in this year's tournament seeding to realize why...

With St. Louis in the A10, the A10 would need to either abandon the Midwest (and ditch St. Louis) or go after more markets (and more TV $s). (It's also possible that the Big East basketball would approach St. Louis). With more teams (from the Horizon and Colonial), the A10 would also have the option itself of later splitting for a better geography and rivalries.

[jimdahl]

With St. Louis in the A10, the A10 would need to either abandon the Midwest (and ditch St. Louis) or go after more markets (and more TV $s). (It's also possible that the Big East basketball would approach St. Louis). With more teams (from the Horizon and Colonial), the A10 would also have the option itself of later splitting for a better geography and rivalries.

I found the A10 expansion to Charlotte & St. Louis entirely superfluous for both being completely outside the conference footprint. So, you're probably right that league officials are probably more interested in expanding into new urban markets than maintaining a single conference identity. Still, guys, BU.

Update... and the rest of the conference considers Dayton and Xavier to be in the Midwest

[The Sicatoka]

Update... and the rest of the conference considers Dayton and Xavier to be in the Midwest

Of course they do. They are west of Buffalo (or is it Newark that's the benchmark, I forget).

Right now message boards are about evenly divided between wild speculation and whos marching band is better.

Grambling. No, Southern. No, Grambling! No, Southern! .....

Back to point:

There will be future conference shake-ups. The Horizon took some very quiet and unexpected actions this week. 'Why?' is the key question. What do they know or forsee? 'star2city' took his estimation and speculation on the answer to the question. Isn't speculating 90% of this board's charm?

[DI IN FARGO]

I have no problem with speculation, even wild speculation as long as all involved read it for what it is. I'm just waiting for someone to sign on now as Miss Cleo and give us their version

[NDSU grad]

I could be wrong about this (it would only be about the eigth time today ) but I think the SU's will be considered active DI institutions in 06-07. That's why wrestling and volleyball will be tourney eligible this year. Basically, the old rules stated there was a two-year waiting period to be playoff-eligible. Well, institutions that move up still have to go through that two-year period; the NCAA tacked on three years where a school is in limbo (not really DI, not really DII). At least this is the way I interpreted the NCAA manual.

[star2city]

I could be wrong about this (it would only be about the eigth time today ) but I think the SU's will be considered active DI institutions in 06-07. That's why wrestling and volleyball will be tourney eligible this year. Basically, the old rules stated there was a two-year waiting period to be playoff-eligible. Well, institutions that move up still have to go through that two-year period; the NCAA tacked on three years where a school is in limbo (not really DI, not really DII). At least this is the way I interpreted the NCAA manual.

Any DII or DIII school can chose two programs (one men's, one women's, but not basketball or football) to participate at the DI level. NDSU chose wrestling and volleyball to receive this exemption. Those two sports are subject to different transition bylaws than the rest of the athletic department.

[bincitysioux]

The Big Sky option has much less risk and really is now the only option for a DI UND. I'm sure NDSU and SDSU understands those implications also. The Big Sky really only wants expansion for the 2008-9 season, so its not in its interests to rush.

This really doesn't affect UND at all because UND will not be going DI within the next 5 years. As long as Kupchella is at the helm, it will not happen.

[SiouxMeNow]

you might be suprised....

[MplsBison]

Here's what can be reasonably expected:

2009-10

-->Big East Football - Adds Central Florida (CUSA )

Why not add four and have a championship game?

Cfla, UAB, Memphis, and ECU.

-->Big East Basketball - Adds Xavier, Dayton, UMass (all of Atlantic 10)

8 + 3 = 11. Not sure why they'd only want 11..

Maybe add U Rhode Island too? (Also from A10).

-->Mountain West - adds UTEP (CUSA)

* Mountain West - adds Boise St, Fresno St (both WAC) if they help get BCS status

Why not add three and have a championship game?

UTEP, Boise, and Fresno.

CUSA - adds Middle Tennessee (Sunbelt)

adds Louisiana Tech (WAC)

Sunbelt - adds Texas State (Southland)

Sunbelt is going to be hurting a lot worse than this if CUSA loses 5 members:

CUSA adds: La Tech (WAC), Ark St, North Texas, Middle Tenn., and Troy (Sun Belt).

Now Sunbelt is down to 9 members and lets say WKU moves to I-A and joins the MAC and Denver joins the WCC. Now they're down to 7 members and 4 football members.

They could add Texas State (Southland) and get Ark Little Rock, U New Orleans, and U South Alabama to play football. That would be 8 members and 8 football schools.

The Southland now has 10 members and 6 football members. They could get UT-Arlington, UT-San Antonio, and TA&M- Corpus Christi to playfootball for 9 football members.

WAC - needing one - adds UC-Davis or Sac St.

- needing three - adds Davis and Sac and one of the following: Portland St, NAU, Cal Poly

(a WAC doomsday scenario is Hawaii becoming a football independent and joining the Big West for its strength in volleyball and baseball PLUS San Jose St dropping football and joining Big West - the WAC would need five teams)

WAC goes from 9 to 6 with the loss of Boise, Fresno, and La Tech. Now say that Hawaii becomes Ind. in football and leaves the WAC, that's down to 5.

They need 4 new members: Cal Davis, Sac State, Cal Poly, and Portland State.

That leaves the Big Sky with: Montana, Montana State, Idaho State, Weber State, NAU, Eastern Washington, and UNC for 7 members.

Add NDSU, SDSU, and UND to get 10.

[aff]

Well I guess I didn't see it that way. Is it too early to say sho-in?

[star2city]

Why not add four and have a championship game? Cfla, UAB, Memphis, and ECU.

That would dilute the conference too much and threaten its BCS status.

8 + 3 = 11. Not sure why they'd only want 11..

Maybe add U Rhode Island too? (Also from A10).

Notre Dame would likely stay with the football schools, as an alliance member, but not be a full football conference participant. Big East Basketball would only have seven members.

Why not add three and have a championship game? UTEP, Boise, and Fresno.

They would if its helps them get BCS status.

WAC goes from 9 to 6 with the loss of Boise, Fresno, and La Tech. Now say that Hawaii becomes Ind. in football and leaves the WAC, that's down to 5.

They need 4 new members: Cal Davis, Sac State, Cal Poly, and Portland State.

That leaves the Big Sky with: Montana, Montana State, Idaho State, Weber State, NAU, Eastern Washington, and UNC for 7 members.

Add NDSU, SDSU, and UND to get 10.

The Big Sky dropping to 7 (with UNC) forces it to add another "core" member. UNC doesn't qualify as a core member until 2015. Southern Utah and Denver are the only core member possibilities in the West. If the Big Sky adds Southern Utah now, it would destroy the MidCon's autobid. The Big Sky will likely keep SUU as a last gap option, in case SUU is needed for the Big Sky's very survival.

The Big Sky has to be still interested in Denver, as Denver meets the core member criteria. Denver was rebuffed by the Horizon (which chose Valpo instead) and has few choices remaining if it wants out of the Sunbelt. It will probably just stay in the Sunbelt, rather than going to a less prestigious Big Sky. But Denver probably has an open invite anytime to the Sky.

[MplsBison]

That would dilute the conference too much and threaten its BCS status.

As far as diluting the conference, if they added four bums, yeah it would dilute it.

Memphis is already a top 25 team. UAB has that potential. Same with Cfla with their new on campus stadium (local talent alone would do the trick). ECU has been a top 25 team and a "giant killer" in the past. They got off track somewhat but they have a large stadium and good football following.

Memphis, UAB, and Cfla all have very large markets and possible bowl games with them (Memphis Liberty, Cfla Citrus, and if Birmingham builds the new stadium that could certainly be a bowl).

As far as threatening the BCS status?

Uh...what?

Notre Dame would likely stay with the football schools, as an alliance member, but not be a full football conference participant. Big East Basketball would only have seven members.

Ok, I could see that.

But IMO, Notre Dame would go with the non football schools (since it would be an all catholic league) and Notre Dame is indep. in football.

They would if its helps them get BCS status.

BCS status has nothing to do with it.

CUSA has a championship game and they aren't in the BCS.

It creates extra money and excitement for the fans.

The Big Sky dropping to 7 (with UNC) forces it to add another "core" member. UNC doesn't qualify as a core member until 2015. Southern Utah and Denver are the only core member possibilities in the West. If the Big Sky adds Southern Utah now, it would destroy the MidCon's autobid. The Big Sky will likely keep SUU as a last gap option, in case SUU is needed for the Big Sky's very survival.

The Big Sky has to be still interested in Denver, as Denver meets the core member criteria. Denver was rebuffed by the Horizon (which chose Valpo instead) and has few choices remaining if it wants out of the Sunbelt. It will probably just stay in the Sunbelt, rather than going to a less prestigious Big Sky. But Denver probably has an open invite anytime to the Sky.

I see neither Denver or Southern Utah going to the Big Sky.

I could only see SUU if they had 60 scholarships for football which they don't. I don't know if they could afford 60 scholarships to be honest.

They might drop football and just be in the Mid Con.

Denver won't join the Big Sky. They don't have football and are not going to add it (even if they played in the Broncos' stadium). They want to be in the WCC and I can see them going there with time.

The Big Sky doesn't have to add another core member. They already have six.

They only would in case another school decided to leave. And the only one that would is Montana. I think if NDSU, UND, and SDSU are added, Montana will be happy and stick around until UNC is a core member at least. It'd probably take them that long to fun raise enough for I-A anyway.