PCM Posted February 23, 2006 Share Posted February 23, 2006 My opinion of where UND will end up isn't based mathematically but based upon history. If memory serves me correctly it seems that PWR ratings for WCHA teams always tend to rise at the expense of other conferences - across the board - in February and March. imho it's based upon SOS and success in OOC games and I suppose my thoughts on this could be flawed, but if UND wins enough games they get in as we'll see teams such as OSU fall in the PWR and UND and DU flip a few comparisons late. I tend to agree with you. If, for example, UND is 27-16-1 coming out of the WCHA Final Five (meaning that the team went 7-3 down the stretch), I have a tough time believing that teams hovering just above .500 will get into the NCAA tournament over the Sioux. My memory might also be flawed, but I seem to recall that the selection committee wasn't above adding bonuses and such to the PWR to get the strongest field for the tournament rather than strictly adhering to the formula. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deedub Posted February 23, 2006 Share Posted February 23, 2006 I tend to agree with you. If, for example, UND is 27-16-1 coming out of the WCHA Final Five (meaning that the team went 7-3 down the stretch), I have a tough time believing that teams hovering just above .500 will get into the NCAA tournament over the Sioux. My memory might also be flawed, but I seem to recall that the selection committee wasn't above adding bonuses and such to the PWR to get the strongest field for the tournament rather than strictly adhering to the formula. Very valid point PCM, I would think the selection committee would certainly look at how teams are playing down the stretch to add "bonuses" to get UND into the playoff picture plus they want financial success. So the committe knows that if they put UND in the attendance will increase as well as revenue. So I think UND gets in but how do they perform is another question Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochsioux Posted February 24, 2006 Share Posted February 24, 2006 I thought the same thing. I just read it on USCHO and posted a link earlier in the thread. Maybe the individual who wrote the article does not know up from down. If that is the case then he can go take a Denver and wipe his Wisconsin I think it goes something like this: Right now the Sioux are losing a number of comparisons due to the TUC category. If they were to sweep Denver it would add two wins to the TUC, this definitely helps, at least short-term. Next week they play Mich Tech so these games cannot help us in the TUC. A sweep of Denver and Tech would likely move the Sioux to 4th place, possibly even 3rd. If they end up third there is no chance they play a TUC in the first round so they can't help their TUC record. Not only that but it eliminates one more game in the WCHA tourney that could help the TUC record. If they end up fourth they would probably play Mankato, they are not a TUC today but could be after the Wisconsin series this w/e. Mankato does not play next w/e. If Mankato is a TUC after playing Wisconsin, this would help UND by adding two earlier wins to their TUC total. But if the Sioux sweep them in the first round they might drop back out of being a TUC, thus again providing no help for the TUC comparisons. As strange as it sounds, it may be possible that a split with Denver and a sweep of Tech may prove better then a sweep of both. A split with Denver and sweep of Tech will probably leave the Sioux in 5th place with a chance to play a TUC in the first round. A sweep of the first round would then give them a 3-1 record against TUC recently (Denver 1-1, 1st round WCHA 2-0). Since UND's current TUC record is sub-500, a 3-1 record may help more than a 2-0 record being added to TUC. You also probably get the play-in game in the final-five which is more winnable than the semi-final game, probably against Wisconsin. The rule for tournament games is that is won't hurt your RPI if you win, it can definitely hurt your pairwise. I will take my chances with going 4-0 to end the reg. season. If they do that they should flip the DU comparison and the Northern Mich. comparison. They will also improve their RPI enough to flip some other ones they are narrowly losing today based on RPI (such as Michigan and Maine, depending on how they do). There are so many close pairwise comparisons right now that they just need to win and see how it shakes out. Right now I think an improved RPI will help just as much as improving the TUC. They need to maintain the comparisons that they have won and add enough to get in the top 12 to be safe. I think going 4-0, then sweeping the first round would be good enough to get in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sagard Posted February 24, 2006 Share Posted February 24, 2006 Very valid point PCM, I would think the selection committee would certainly look at how teams are playing down the stretch to add "bonuses" to get UND into the playoff picture plus they want financial success. So the committe knows that if they put UND in the attendance will increase as well as revenue. So I think UND gets in but how do they perform is another question Nobody is going to do UND any favors to get them into the tourney. They will either earn it or or they won't. Could you imagine the outcry of the #13 or #14 PWR team if they got bumped by a home team? What about next year if the Gophers need some favors? It didn't happen for CC (who got probably the biggest screw job PWR will ever deliver) two years ago and it won't happen this year. No matter what USCHO or optimistic Gopher's fans say, UND controls it's destiny and I think 5-2 or 7-3 closing will get them in to the tourney with room to spare. Unless of course some outragous results occur in the conference tourneys. Due to the CCHA's new format that tourney is up for grabs. If UND splits with DU they could easily have a "loser goes home" game at the X, and at that point the third place game would actually be more important than the championship. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCM Posted February 24, 2006 Share Posted February 24, 2006 Nobody is going to do UND any favors to get them into the tourney. That's not what I'm saying and I certainly wouldn't advocate the Sioux depending on it. All I'm saying is that in the past, the selection committee hasn't always gone strictly by the PWR and has fiddled with it to get the strongest teams in the tournament at the end of the year. If the Sioux have a strong finish, I think it improves their chances against teams with very similar rankings. Could you imagine the outcry of the #13 or #14 PWR team if they got bumped by a home team? There are cries every season by coaches and fans of teams that didn't get in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckysieve Posted February 24, 2006 Share Posted February 24, 2006 That's not what I'm saying and I certainly wouldn't advocate the Sioux depending on it. All I'm saying is that in the past, the selection committee hasn't always gone strictly by the PWR and has fiddled with it to get the strongest teams in the tournament at the end of the year. If the Sioux have a strong finish, I think it improves their chances against teams with very similar rankings. There are cries every season by coaches and fans of teams that didn't get in. Every team that didn't get into the tourney were not in the top 14 in the pairwise, so they really have nothing to whine about. Sagard is right. If UND is not in the top 14, there is NO WAY the ncaa bends the rules a little to put UND in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZSIOUX Posted February 24, 2006 Share Posted February 24, 2006 Every team that didn't get into the tourney were not in the top 14 in the pairwise, so they really have nothing to whine about. Sagard is right. If UND is not in the top 14, there is NO WAY the ncaa bends the rules a little to put UND in. thanks for the great insight buddy ol pal..... time to get ready to go to denver in the morning to start the march to the g forks regional, the bruskies are alreaDY FLOWING THE NIGHT BEFORE.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sagard Posted February 24, 2006 Share Posted February 24, 2006 That's not what I'm saying and I certainly wouldn't advocate the Sioux depending on it. All I'm saying is that in the past, the selection committee hasn't always gone strictly by the PWR and has fiddled with it to get the strongest teams in the tournament at the end of the year. If the Sioux have a strong finish, I think it improves their chances against teams with very similar rankings. While I'd agree that bracket placement has been used to create good matchups (and avoid intraconference matchups) within the brackets, PWR and autobids have identified the tourney teams since at least the '95-'96 season. The only exception to this was to exclude the MAAC teams due to insular scheduling in '99 and '00. If this is what you are referring to than I'm with you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNDLAW Posted February 24, 2006 Author Share Posted February 24, 2006 While I'd agree that bracket placement has been used to create good matchups (and avoid intraconference matchups) within the brackets, PWR and autobids have identified the tourney teams since at least the '95-'96 season. The only exception to this was to exclude the MAAC teams due to insular scheduling in '99 and '00. If this is what you are referring to than I'm with you. I just checked the PWR on USCHO. Miami won tonight as well as Michigan State but - if the PWR is up to date - UND dropped in the PWR. ?! I am no math wizard, but using some of the formulaectomy on this thread, didn't such a scenario predict UND moving up in the PWR. God this is confusing. I got in "A" in both Business Math and Statistics in college and I am baffled at the inner workings of the PWR. Yes, I understand the comparisons and the TUC formula, but it seems sort of counterintuitive at times. Can anyone confirm if the PWR/TUC is up to date after tonights game and, if so, explain why UND dropped with these two wins by former opponents? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sagard Posted February 24, 2006 Share Posted February 24, 2006 Yes, I understand the comparisons and the TUC formula, but it seems sort of counterintuitive at times. Can anyone confirm if the PWR/TUC is up to date after tonights game and, if so, explain why UND dropped with these two wins by former opponents? I'm still seeing UND with the same 15 comparisons lost. BC did win tonight as well, but they don't appear to have improved their RPI enough to take back their comparison with UND. Take the weekend off and root on UND. By Sunday the siouxsports PWR and USCHO PWR are usually matching, and then it's worth looking at it closer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATLSiouxPhan Posted February 24, 2006 Share Posted February 24, 2006 I still think if we can win the Final Five we should be ok........ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianvf Posted February 24, 2006 Share Posted February 24, 2006 I still think if we can win the Final Five we should be ok........ Yeah, then the Sioux would be ok. Perhaps we shouldn't bank on them winning 3 games in 3 days against some tough teams though. (although I would love to see it!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNDLAW Posted February 24, 2006 Author Share Posted February 24, 2006 Yeah, then the Sioux would be ok. Perhaps we shouldn't bank on them winning 3 games in 3 days against some tough teams though. (although I would love to see it!) If there is an upset in the first round, there will be reseeding, so... maybe only two games in two days! Think positive... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckysieve Posted February 24, 2006 Share Posted February 24, 2006 If there is an upset in the first round, there will be reseeding, so... maybe only two games in two days! Think positive... That could happen. Two years ago the Gophers finished tied for fourth but were a fifth seed. Two teams seeded higher lost in the first round. Wisconsin was one and I don't remember the other. But the Gophers moved all the way up to a three seed for the final five and ended up winning it. WCHA teams play great on the road so it's not impossible at all to think this could happen to the Sioux. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianvf Posted February 24, 2006 Share Posted February 24, 2006 That would be sweet. With the success of road teams lately in the WCHA, I wouldn't be surprised with an upset or two in the first round. But the Sioux have to take care of business first before we can worry about that. We need at least a split against DU and a sweep over Tech. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SFSIOUX#1 Posted February 25, 2006 Share Posted February 25, 2006 Why is it that Ohio State continues to be in the post season tourney even though they have a terrible record and they lost last night? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deedub Posted February 25, 2006 Share Posted February 25, 2006 Why is it that Ohio State continues to be in the post season tourney even though they have a terrible record and they lost last night? I think the mafia working in conjunction with the NCAA and US Federal Governmnet is the answer to your qustion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SFSIOUX#1 Posted February 25, 2006 Share Posted February 25, 2006 Just pointing out that Ohio States record is 15-16-5 which is not very good yet they continue to be included as a team playing in the postseason. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATLSiouxPhan Posted February 25, 2006 Share Posted February 25, 2006 I think it goes something like this: Right now the Sioux are losing a number of comparisons due to the TUC category. If they were to sweep Denver it would add two wins to the TUC, this definitely helps, at least short-term. Next week they play Mich Tech so these games cannot help us in the TUC. A sweep of Denver and Tech would likely move the Sioux to 4th place, possibly even 3rd. If they end up third there is no chance they play a TUC in the first round so they can't help their TUC record. Not only that but it eliminates one more game in the WCHA tourney that could help the TUC record. If they end up fourth they would probably play Mankato, they are not a TUC today but could be after the Wisconsin series this w/e. Mankato does not play next w/e. If Mankato is a TUC after playing Wisconsin, this would help UND by adding two earlier wins to their TUC total. But if the Sioux sweep them in the first round they might drop back out of being a TUC, thus again providing no help for the TUC comparisons. As strange as it sounds, it may be possible that a split with Denver and a sweep of Tech may prove better then a sweep of both. A split with Denver and sweep of Tech will probably leave the Sioux in 5th place with a chance to play a TUC in the first round. A sweep of the first round would then give them a 3-1 record against TUC recently (Denver 1-1, 1st round WCHA 2-0). Since UND's current TUC record is sub-500, a 3-1 record may help more than a 2-0 record being added to TUC. You also probably get the play-in game in the final-five which is more winnable than the semi-final game, probably against Wisconsin. The rule for tournament games is that is won't hurt your RPI if you win, it can definitely hurt your pairwise. I will take my chances with going 4-0 to end the reg. season. If they do that they should flip the DU comparison and the Northern Mich. comparison. They will also improve their RPI enough to flip some other ones they are narrowly losing today based on RPI (such as Michigan and Maine, depending on how they do). There are so many close pairwise comparisons right now that they just need to win and see how it shakes out. Right now I think an improved RPI will help just as much as improving the TUC. They need to maintain the comparisons that they have won and add enough to get in the top 12 to be safe. I think going 4-0, then sweeping the first round would be good enough to get in. Rochsioux: Thank you for the well-thought out assessment. Finally a forum topic response with some insight, and with a conclusion that does not end with "Let's see how it all plays out, keep your game faces on boys". Can't wait to head up to MPLS to the X this year, knowing that every game played that weekend will be critical. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stickboy1956 Posted February 27, 2006 Share Posted February 27, 2006 Question for bracketoligists? It looks like the UND is a solid #3/(10 seed overall). If they get white-hot and run the table, including the Final 5 in St. Paul, could they win enough comparisons to get to a #1 seed (3,4 overall) and knock Minnesota out of the West regional? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZSIOUX Posted February 27, 2006 Share Posted February 27, 2006 Question for bracketoligists? It looks like the UND is a solid #3/(10 seed overall). If they get white-hot and run the table, including the Final 5 in St. Paul, could they win enough comparisons to get to a #1 seed (3,4 overall) and knock Minnesota out of the West regional? i would say they would end up with a high #2 but then again im not to sure without braking it down. saggard might know a bit more... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackheart Posted February 28, 2006 Share Posted February 28, 2006 of course the Ohio State U will make it...CCHA is the power conference this year...yeah right...flippin joke.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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