PWR/UND's NCAA tournament chances

[sagard]

And before anyone jumps down my throat because I'm saying Wisconsin will sweep UND, go rewind your tape of the Denver series.

[MafiaMan]

Hey NorthDakotaHockey, did I run over your dog or something? I'd hardly call that popping off my mouth and if you're going to gloat over a UND home split against Wisconsin, then I'd say knock yourself out. If you want to throw down a little bet that says UND will sweep, I'll put some money up against you.

That being said, if you're coming to the Final Five, you'll see the end-result of me betting against one of my Gopher friends. Thanks to the Sioux losing the title game, I get to wear his Minnesota jersey for the first game the Gopher play at Xcel this season (assuming they make it, of course). Obviously, I'm hoping for a Golden choke, but if they make it, please, oh please let it be the 4/5 game on Thursday night.

[NorthDakotaHockey]

Hey NorthDakotaHockey, did I run over your dog or something?  I'd hardly call that popping off my mouth and if you're going to gloat over a UND home split against Wisconsin, then I'd say knock yourself out.  If you want to throw down a little bet that says UND will sweep, I'll put some money up against you.

That being said, if you're coming to the Final Five, you'll see the end-result of me betting against one of my Gopher friends.  Thanks to the Sioux losing the title game, I get to wear his Minnesota jersey for the first game the Gopher play at Xcel this season (assuming they make it, of course).  Obviously, I'm hoping for a Golden choke, but if they make it, please, oh please let it be the 4/5 game on Thursday night. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I couldn't be so lucky as to have someone run over my dog right about now.

And I ain't got much money, what with my ex with most of it.

As for wearing that brown-and-yellow stained abomination that some call a Gopher hockey jersey, make sure you dribble a whole lot of beer and sauce down the front of it at the game.

As for Denver, sure they are playing well. It scares me, the thought of George the Goliath Gwodnobnoxiousozky leading Denver to a back-to-back. The big heads on those present prima donnas will end up haunting them in the end.

I'd take some of your money MafiaMan, but I can't gamble anymore. For money, at least. Care to wager anything else??

[MafiaMan]

That's funny you should mention that jersey, NorthDakotaHockey. I let my buddy know he'll get it back...with some pizza sauce, pop stains, and ice cream splotches all over it. I also told him that wearing that Gopher jersey entitled me to act like the typical UM fan who wears that jersey. I fully expect to stand up and yell such gems as:

"At least we're all Minnesota kids!"

"You're just a bunch of Canadians at North Dakota."

and

"We're the greatest team in the history of hockey in the universe."

I agree with you on Denver. They sure have gotten cocky. I seem to recall one of their players waving his glove in a "sweep sweep sweep" motion at the fans last Saturday after the game.

[siouxguyinstpaul]

Per capita - there are mores kids that play DI hockey from North Dakota (population just over 600,000) than any other state in the union. Two of which are on the goofs starting line.

[dagies]

MafiaMan, if the Sioux take care of business and make the final five, it looks like a decent chance you'll be wearing that gopher jersey on Thursday night to a Sioux-gopher tilt.

[AZSIOUX]

back to being tied for 10th as of early sunday morning here. just got home and checked the pwr..nice to see the gofs tie and only get 1 point this weekend....tied with BU and right behind harvard and ohio state for a 2 seed in the tourney...this not playing thing is working ok

time to get some well needed sleep!!

[MafiaMan]

Trust me, dagies, I've had nightmares thinking about that scenario already.

A lot of my Gopher friends around here are busy worrying about what seed Goldy will get for the tournament. The NCAA has really made it ridiculous when they could be #16 and are guaranteed playing at Mariucci for their regional. You'd have thought they would have fixed things a few years ago thanks to Michigan getting some cushy home games at Yost, but they found a way to make that problem WORSE!

Just checked on the last 10 games for the Sioux and Wisconsin. Bucky is 7-2-1 in their last 10 and the Sioux are 3-6-1 (which includes the USA Junior Team game). I know everyone's been saying sweep this coming weekend in Alaska, but I don't think that is going to be an easy task at all.

[AZSIOUX]

ok,6 points behind the goofs.tied with the dogz..have 2 more wcha games than both of these teams left.the gofs really let us hang around for that 4th spot by only getting 1 point this weekend.they could have buried the sioux..the gofs have 3 of 4 games left on the road.2 at m-tech and home and home with st cloud.. maybe thats a good thing for them since they have been so bad at home.. the dogz are at denver and have wisconsin at home. very tough.we also have a tough run, they are not top teams we are playing on the road but they are on the road! oh yeah, we play wisconin at home, pretty tough as well..this should be fun to follow and hope the sioux can make a run at th 4th spot

[MafiaMan]

I'm with ya there, AZSIOUX. I was in Houghton this season for the Sioux/Huskie series. I bet that MacInnes Ice Arena will be rockin' this coming weekend when the Gophers come to town.

[jk]

Thought I would resurrect this thread. Here's what the link referenced in the first post had to say about UND's RPI heading into the regular season's last three weeks [edited just a touch for the table headings]:

--------------------------

Assuming UND's three remaining opponents perfectly maintain their current rankings (minor deviations will have insignificant impacts on UND's RPI), UND's opponents' win percentage will fall from .5742 to .5635 and it's opponents' opponents' win percentage will fall from .5251 to .5224.

UND's control over its destiny is its win percentage, which will be the primary driver of its RPI, as the following table elucidates (Additional Wins, Final Win%, Approximate Final RPI):

1 .4861 .5339

2 .5139 .5408

3 .5417 .5478

4 .5694 .5547

5 .5972 .5617

6 .6250 .5686

---------------------------

As predicted (simple math), UND's winning percentage after four wins (3-1-2 = 4 wins) is .5694. UND's RPI is currently .5535, compared to the prediction of .5547. Pretty darn close for something that is definitely not simple math.

================

I just know enough to ask questions, but it seems to me that most of the PWR comparisons above UND, the very top teams, are out of reach. It would seem that, with positive results on the ice, comparisons with the following are all flippable in UND's favor:

Wisconsin

OSU

Harvard

I think the highest UND could finish in the PWR is 7th, barring a real run through the Final Five that might challenge a few of the comparisons that seem far out of reach now.

In the rearview mirror, nearby comparisons with the following seem pretty safe:

Dartmouth

Northern Michigan

Maine

Colgate

Unfortunately, the list of PWR comparisons that could be in danger is long:

UNH

Lowell

Vermont

Michigan State

UMD

Few things about the PWR can be said with certainty, and I haven't crunched the numbers, but I get these impressions from looking at the PWR comparisons:

1. If UND advances past UMD this weekend, they will probably qualify for the NCAA tournament.

2. If UND loses to UMD this weekend, I do not think they are necessarily doomed to exclusion from the NCAAs. However, I think their spot would be very precarious, and they would be at the mercy of a bunch of other factors. It looks like the UNH, Vermont and UMD comparisons would probably flip with a series loss this weekend.

3. UMD is win or golf.

It's so hard to tell with all the factors that go into play, but I think UND is where it was three weeks ago, still needing to win on the ice.

[Goon]

I'm with ya there, AZSIOUX.  I was in Houghton this season for the Sioux/Huskie series.  I bet that MacInnes Ice Arena will be rockin' this coming weekend when the Gophers come to town.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Watched the games on TV this past weekend. They have the players benchs on opposite ends. It also appears the building is a run down version of the Concrete center in St Clown. Is the MacInnes Ice Arena really that much of a dump?