Final regional ranking possibilities

[jimdahl]

My back-of-the-envelope (i.e. manual, so error prone) take--

UND:

if def. USD, SSI: 9.90, Win%: .80

if def. by USD, SSI: 9.30, Win%: .70

UNO:

if def. Mankato, SSI: 9.818, Win%: .818

if def. by Mankato, SSI: 9.27, Win%: .727

SCSU:

if def. UMD, SSI: 9.9, Win%: .80

if def. by UMD, SSI: 9.3, Win%: .70

GVSU:

if def. Mich. Tech, SSI: 9.60, Win%: .800

if def. by Mich. Tech, SSI: 9.00, Win%: .700

From what I can tell, NCC, NSIC, and GLIAC will each get an "earned access" representative. There should be a rep. from each conference naturally ranked higher than UND, so the earned access won't result in a loss of a slot otherwise available to UND. I'm assuming Northwood, Winona St, and Michigan Tech. are locks at this point.

Plenty of scenarios there that get UND in if they win Saturday. If UND loses, the Sioux will need a lot of help. If UND and all the other teams listed win, it could come down to UND vs. GVSU (SCSU has the H2H over UND, and SCSU/GVSU have no COP or H2H). UND and GVSU have both defeated their only common opponent and have otherwise similar records. UND has a slightly higher SSI, but I'm tempted to guess that however the NCAA relatively ranks the two of them this week will carry over to next week if both win or lose. Though it ain't gonna happen, it's still mathematically possible for UND to be the #1 rep from the NCC

How former opponents' results could affect SSI (the odds I missed something here are quite high):

• if Mankato def. UNO, Mankato Win% becomes >.500, giving UND .2 and UNO .18 and SCSU .2 more SSI points
  
• if SCSU loses to UMD, win% becomes <.75, dropping UND .2 and UNO .18 SSI points
  
• if UND loses to USD, win% becomes <.75, dropping UNO .18 and SCSU .2 SSI points
  
• if Delta St loses to Ark-Monticello, Delta St Win% becomes .500, dropping UND .2 more SSI points
  
• if Western Washington loses to Humboldt St., win% becomes .500, dropping UNO .18 and SCSU .2 SSI points
  
• if Tiffin def. Gannon, win% becomes >.500, giving UNO .18 SSI points
  
• if Ashland def. Indianapolis, win% becomes >.500, giving GVSU .18 SSI points
  
• if Northern St. loses to SW Minnesota St, win% becomes .500, dropping SCSU .2 SSI points
  

[southpaw]

My back-of-the-envelope (i.e. manual, so error prone) take--

UND:

if def. USD, SSI: 9.90, Win%: .80

if def. by USD, SSI: 9.30, Win%: .70

UNO:

if def. Mankato, SSI: 9.818, Win%: .818

if def. by Mankato, SSI: 9.27, Win%: .727

SCSU:

if def. UMD, SSI: 9.9, Win%: .80

if def. by UMD, SSI: 9.3, Win%: .70

GVSU:

if def. Mich. Tech, SSI: 9.60, Win%: .800

if def. by Mich. Tech, SSI: 9.00, Win%: .700

From what I can tell, NCC, NSIC, and GLIAC will each get an "earned access" representative.  There should be a rep. from each conference naturally ranked higher than UND, so the earned access won't result in a loss of a slot otherwise available to UND.  I'm assuming Northwood, Winona St, and Michigan Tech. are locks at this point.

Plenty of scenarios there that get UND in if they win Saturday.  If UND loses, the Sioux will need a lot of help.  If UND and all the other teams listed win, it could come down to UND vs. GVSU (SCSU has the H2H over UND, and SCSU/GVSU have no COP or H2H).  UND and GVSU have both defeated their only common opponent and have otherwise similar records.  UND has a slightly higher SSI, but I'm tempted to guess that however the NCAA relatively ranks the two of them this week will carry over to next week if both win or lose.  Though it ain't gonna happen, it's still mathematically possible for UND to be the #1 rep from the NCC

How former opponents' results could affect SSI (the odds I missed something here are quite high):

• if Mankato def. UNO, Mankato Win% becomes >.500, giving UND .2 and UNO .18 and SCSU .2 more SSI points
  
  
• if SCSU loses to UMD, win% becomes <.75, dropping UND .2 and UNO .18 SSI points
  
  
• if UND loses to USD, win% becomes <.75, dropping UNO .18 and SCSU .2 SSI points
  
  
• if Delta St loses to Ark-Monticello, Delta St Win% becomes .500, dropping UND .2 more SSI points
  
  
• if Western Washington loses to Humboldt St., win% becomes .500, dropping UNO .18 and SCSU .2 SSI points
  
  
• if Tiffin def. Gannon, win% becomes >.500, giving UNO .18 SSI points
  
  
• if Ashland def. Indianapolis, win% becomes >.500, giving GVSU .18 SSI points
  
  
• if Northern St. loses to SW Minnesota St, win% becomes .500, dropping SCSU .2 SSI points
  

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

So basically if the following things happen we're in? Mankato beats UNO, SCSU beats UMD, UND beats USD, Delta beats Ark-Monticello, Western Wash loses, Gannon beats Tiffin, Indianapolis beats Ashland and Norther St. loses.

What are UND's chances saying that UND, UNO, SCSU, GVSU all win?

[bigmrg74]

Man, all this figuring would be a lot less harder if both UND and GVSU had won out like they should have. We would only be worrying about who gets the 1st seed instead of hoping kinda to get the 6th seed here.

[dakotadan]

THe rankings for this week just came out and UND is at #6, GVSU #7, and USD #8. UND better win on saturday.

[LennonIsTheMan]

Not sure if this has already been mentioned or not, but I just checked d2football.com, and they have the new regional rankings out, with UND in 6th. I think that's good news, considering we play the 8th team that has only loss. However, if GVSU were to beat Mich. Tech, then we may have some problems. We'll see what happens.

Just beat the Yotes bad, and let it play out.

GO SIOUX!!

[LennonIsTheMan]

Sorry guys, I guess Dakotaboy beat me to the punch by 1minute.

[jimdahl]

My one big uncertainty when writing the above analysis was I had no idea where the committee would put USD, given their pathetic SSI but superb record. At #8, just behind UND/GVSU, they could fight for a spot if UND and GVSU both lose. Them knocking in the door makes it a lot harder for UND to make the playoffs with a Sioux loss this weekend, because USD would likely jump ahead of UND in line. It's official boys -- go out there and win.

[dakotadan]

Northwest Region Standings:

1 Michigan Tech

2 Northwood

3 Winona State

4 UNO

5 St. Cloud

6 UND

7 GVSU

8 USD

9 Saginaw

10 Ferris State

11 Bemidji St.

12 Concordia- St. Paul

[Cratter]

You'd think that if GVSU and UND win, UND would be out of the playoffs and GVSU would be in because GVSU would win against the number one team in the region, but then going by jim's SSI it'd appear UND would have the stronger overall SSI.

[updm002]

One has to wonder if USD's competition is really that much worse than winona's. Sure winona plays teams with better records but they get that better record by having one crappy team play another. That league is a joke. I would bet my money on usd to beat winona and for sure i would bet on UND against winona even if it is at winona. As a uno fan it just irritates me that winona is higher than we are bc I am sure we would beat them anywhere anytime. I would love the standings to end like they are now and have 3 ncc teams in and have UND wack winona.

[RD17]

My back-of-the-envelope (i.e. manual, so error prone) take--

UND:

if def. USD, SSI: 9.90, Win%: .80

if def. by USD, SSI: 9.30, Win%: .70

UNO:

if def. Mankato, SSI: 9.818, Win%: .818

if def. by Mankato, SSI: 9.27, Win%: .727

SCSU:

if def. UMD, SSI: 9.9, Win%: .80

if def. by UMD, SSI: 9.3, Win%: .70

GVSU:

if def. Mich. Tech, SSI: 9.60, Win%: .800

if def. by Mich. Tech, SSI: 9.00, Win%: .700

From what I can tell, NCC, NSIC, and GLIAC will each get an "earned access" representative.  There should be a rep. from each conference naturally ranked higher than UND, so the earned access won't result in a loss of a slot otherwise available to UND.  I'm assuming Northwood, Winona St, and Michigan Tech. are locks at this point.

Plenty of scenarios there that get UND in if they win Saturday.  If UND loses, the Sioux will need a lot of help.  If UND and all the other teams listed win, it could come down to UND vs. GVSU (SCSU has the H2H over UND, and SCSU/GVSU have no COP or H2H).  UND and GVSU have both defeated their only common opponent and have otherwise similar records.  UND has a slightly higher SSI, but I'm tempted to guess that however the NCAA relatively ranks the two of them this week will carry over to next week if both win or lose.  Though it ain't gonna happen, it's still mathematically possible for UND to be the #1 rep from the NCC

How former opponents' results could affect SSI (the odds I missed something here are quite high):

• if Mankato def. UNO, Mankato Win% becomes >.500, giving UND .2 and UNO .18 and SCSU .2 more SSI points
  
  
• if SCSU loses to UMD, win% becomes <.75, dropping UND .2 and UNO .18 SSI points
  
  
• if UND loses to USD, win% becomes <.75, dropping UNO .18 and SCSU .2 SSI points
  
  
• if Delta St loses to Ark-Monticello, Delta St Win% becomes .500, dropping UND .2 more SSI points
  
  
• if Western Washington loses to Humboldt St., win% becomes .500, dropping UNO .18 and SCSU .2 SSI points
  
  
• if Tiffin def. Gannon, win% becomes >.500, giving UNO .18 SSI points
  
  
• if Ashland def. Indianapolis, win% becomes >.500, giving GVSU .18 SSI points
  
  
• if Northern St. loses to SW Minnesota St, win% becomes .500, dropping SCSU .2 SSI points
  

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

One other important game is SVSU @ Ferris State. If SVSU wins, their winning percentage would be back at .700, giving GVSU an additional .2 in SSI.

[jimdahl]

One other important game is SVSU @ Ferris State. If SVSU wins, their winning percentage would be back at .700, giving GVSU an additional .2 in SSI.

Doh -- I made that mistake in more than one place. I was treating .667 teams with 9 GP as not being able to make it >.700, which is wrong, they only need to = .700.

The only other one in that category was Indiana PA for UNO.

One has to wonder if USD's competition is really that much worse than winona's.

Looking at my sample D2 RPI, for example, USD's D2 opp win%/opp-opp win% are .4425/.5790, whereas Winona's are .3371/.4969. There's no doubt in my mind that USD has played a tougher D2 schedule; however, D2 chose to severely punish games against lower divisions and USD chose to play 3 of them, which killed their SSI.

You'd think that if GVSU and UND win, UND would be out of the playoffs and GVSU would be in because GVSU would win against the number one team in the region, but then going by jim's SSI it'd appear UND would have the stronger overall SSI.

We've seen numerous instances this year in which a team ahead in both SSI/win% is ranked below a lower team, even when there's no obvious H2H/COP/in-region/etc... explanation. That makes it seem likely they are considering other factors like recent big wins, but keep in mind UND is also playing a quality opponent (>.700), though at home, so who knows. If UND and GVSU both win, we certainly shouldn't be booking our flights to Michigan until the selection show is over.

[JESUS,family,rutgers]

How many teams get in the ncaa division 2 football playoffs? Thanks.

[RD17]

How many teams get in the ncaa division 2 football playoffs? Thanks.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

24- which is about 1 out of every 6 Division II teams. For many years it was a 16 team playoff. This is the first year of the 24 team format.

[ethanm]

Six teams make it from each of the four regions with the top two seeds getting byes. This is the first year with 24 teams. Previously, it was 16 teams total, four from each region.