jimdahl Posted October 4, 2004 Share Posted October 4, 2004 I'm still figuring out how it all works and will be adding more of the tie-breakers, but here's some raw data on regional ranking estimation. Barring any major errors, looks like UND should be 5th-7th (my personal guess would be that Winona gets the bump above UND for the perfect DII record but Ferris St doesn't for just having played an extra game, putting UND in 6th). Next weekend's game will clearly have huge regional ranking implications. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hansel Posted October 4, 2004 Share Posted October 4, 2004 cool new feature jim Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UND92,96 Posted October 4, 2004 Share Posted October 4, 2004 There have been very few games between the top-5 teams in the GLIAC, so within the next few weeks we will start to see them knock each other off. In fact, with Grand Valley State having to go to Saginaw Valley (who already has one loss), it's quite conceivable that no team will get through the league unbeaten. As for Winona St., their one more possible loss will be this week at surprising Bemidji State. Even if Winona loses, they will still have a chance to make the playoffs, but it would likely be as a result of "earned access." Bemidji could run the table and still not get in due to their extremely low SSI as a result of having played two dIII/NAIA opponents. If the Sioux can run the table, they could still get a decent seed, but obviously the margin for error is now essentially zero. There are at least three games for UND that could result in pretty big power points--Ferris St., USD and UNO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulldog Posted October 4, 2004 Share Posted October 4, 2004 Run the table? IALMAO This is how it will work out. Two losses with a Ferris loss and UND is gone! There could be 4 GLIAC teams going all with 2 losses or less. If you blow this game Saturday, 8-2 won't cut the mustard. Why? Winona is in because they play in a weak conference. St. Cloud is in because they beat you. 4 teams from the GLIAC are in because that is how many there will be with 2 losses or less and you will have lost to the 5th place team. Got the picture? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UND92,96 Posted October 4, 2004 Share Posted October 4, 2004 Run the table? IALMAO This is how it will work out. Two losses with a Ferris loss and UND is gone! There could be 4 GLIAC teams going all with 2 losses or less. If you blow this game Saturday, 8-2 won't cut the mustard. Why? Winona is in because they play in a weak conference. St. Cloud is in because they beat you. 4 teams from the GLIAC are in because that is how many there will be with 2 losses or less and you will have lost to the 5th place team. Got the picture? <{POST_SNAPBACK}> You will note that I said "IF THE SIOUX RUN THE TABLE," not "WHEN THE SIOUX RUN THE TABLE." What is your problem, anyway? I don't see how you can have so little regard for a program that has accomplished what UND has over the past 10-11 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OETKB Posted October 4, 2004 Share Posted October 4, 2004 Don't count yer chickens, Bulldog. And don't talk too much smack, unless your willing to eat it later. I say UND spanks Ferris by 17, just to avenge that lousy hockey performance of two years ago! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimdahl Posted October 4, 2004 Author Share Posted October 4, 2004 Run the table? This is how it will work out. Two losses with a Ferris loss and UND is gone! There could be 4 GLIAC teams going all with 2 losses or less. If you blow this game Saturday, 8-2 won't cut the mustard. Why? Winona is in because they play in a weak conference. St. Cloud is in because they beat you. 4 teams from the GLIAC are in because that is how many there will be with 2 losses or less and you will have lost to the 5th place team. Got the picture? That's certainly one possible scenario. Fortunately, despite your prescience, the games will still played on the field as scheduled. For example, there's a lot of NCC play left to assume that SCSU will win the conference. They didn't exactly look great on Saturday, either. UND has the potential to get some big SSI points from the teams UND92,96 listed (Ferris, USD, UNO), nice to get those >.700 wins. Depending how the GLIAC beats up on itself, it could certainly be possible to make the tournament with 2 losses, but not with that nice homefield advantage the Sioux love. We're all excited about the upcoming big game, but let's not invade every thread with smack; at least keep it confined to threads about the upcoming game and out of topical discussions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulldog Posted October 4, 2004 Share Posted October 4, 2004 I have been waiting for this game all year merely to prove the point the GLIAC is the best conference and will prove Massey correct. If UND wins it will be a closer game than you expected. But it will take a lot of mistakes by Ferris to make it happen. I will admit that Ferris has played poorly so far this year (TOs and STP) up to last week when they played like I expected them to all year. If they play like that next week it will be a very good game for them. To put things in perspective here look at this. Ferris 35- Findlay 7. Northwood and SVSU only beat Findlay by 7 and 14 points. It took 7 Ferris TOs to 1 for GVSU in that 24-6 loss where the total yards was very close with Ferris having more 1st downs. My prediction will be assuming Ferris plays a good game and Bowercamp still out Ferris wins 31-13. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cratter Posted October 4, 2004 Share Posted October 4, 2004 I have been waiting for this game all year merely to prove the point the GLIAC is the best conference and will prove Massey correct. If UND wins it will be a closer game than you expected. But it will take a lot of mistakes by Ferris to make it happen. I will admit that Ferris has played poorly so far this year (TOs and STP) up to last week when they played like I expected them to all year. If they play like that next week it will be a very good game for them. To put things in perspective here look at this. Ferris 35- Findlay 7. Northwood and SVSU only beat Findlay by 7 and 14 points. It took 7 Ferris TOs to 1 for GVSU in that 24-6 loss where the total yards was very close with Ferris having more 1st downs. My prediction will be assuming Ferris plays a good game and Bowercamp still out Ferris wins 31-13. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> The Sioux will win cause of this: Alerus Center Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulldog Posted October 4, 2004 Share Posted October 4, 2004 Does the Alerus have a bubble top because it is about to get busted? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimdahl Posted October 4, 2004 Author Share Posted October 4, 2004 I'm still figuring out how it all works and will be adding more of the tie-breakers, but here's some raw data on regional ranking estimation. Barring any major errors, looks like UND should be 5th-7th (my personal guess would be that Winona gets the bump above UND for the perfect DII record but Ferris St doesn't for just having played an extra game, putting UND in 6th). Well, color me surprised. I assumed from last week that any team that led another in both SSI and win% was automatically ranked higher. Apparently they weight the other factors a little higher than I thought (I had read them as being more-or-less tiebreakers) or my initial numbers need some tweaking. Oct. 4 Northwest No. School Overall Record In-Region Record 1. Northwood 6-0 6-0 2. Grand Valley State 5-0 5-0 3. St. Cloud State 6-0 6-0 4. North Dakota 4-1 2-1 5. Michigan Tech 5-0 5-0 6. Winona State 5-1 4-0 7. Saginaw Valley State 4-1 4-1 8. Ferris State 5-1 5-1 9. Western Washington 3-2 3-2 10. Nebraska-Omaha 4-2 4-1 11. Bemidji State 5-1 3-1 12. Minnesota State Mankato 3-3 2-2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UND92,96 Posted October 14, 2004 Share Posted October 14, 2004 RD17 or Jim: I noticed that this week, both USD and Bemidji St. are in the regional top-12 despite the fact that their respective SSI's are apparently in the low 7's. Are there really not more than 10 schools that have respectable SSI's right now in this region, and therefore these two teams are ranked more or less by default? Both have played two games against dIII/NAIA programs which I would think practically mathematically eliminates them from ever accumulating enough power points to have a playoff-worthy SSI. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimdahl Posted October 14, 2004 Author Share Posted October 14, 2004 I noticed that this week, both USD and Bemidji St. are in the regional top-12 despite the fact that their respective SSI's are apparently in the low 7's. Are there really not more than 10 schools that have respectable SSI's right now in this region, and therefore these two teams are ranked more or less by default? Both have played two games against dIII/NAIA programs which I would think practically mathematically eliminates them from ever accumulating enough power points to have a playoff-worthy SSI. Only teams with overall records >.500 are under consideration, so even if Mankato, Duluth, or Augustana had a better SSI, they still couldn't be considered because they're each 1 game under .500. The SSI is also different from most strength-of-schedule indexes in that it actually includes a win percentage component; a loss is generally worth 6 points fewer than a win. So, if you play a lot of tough competition and lose, your SSI will unintuitively be lower than if you play easy competition and win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RD17 Posted October 15, 2004 Share Posted October 15, 2004 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimdahl Posted October 15, 2004 Author Share Posted October 15, 2004 I'm actually working right now on a playoff article for the D2 site and I'm trying to determine the exact correlation between the SSI and winning percentage and also the decision making process behind who gets ranked where in the regional poll. I'll let you guys know what I find out (it should be sometime next week). Even though we don't necessarily know how they all correlate, I'm still working on calculating all the factors that we know are considered. The formatting is still inelegant, but in addition to the SSI details, I just added the results against common opponents (COP) and head-to-head (H2H) results to the rankings page. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Sicatoka Posted October 15, 2004 Share Posted October 15, 2004 Based on this, UND needs Central Washington and Augie to win to get over 0.500 and Ferris to keep winning to stay over 0.700. CWU and Augie would offer an immediate boost. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RD17 Posted October 15, 2004 Share Posted October 15, 2004 Even though we don't necessarily know how they all correlate, I'm still working on calculating all the factors that we know are considered. The formatting is still inelegant, but in addition to the SSI details, I just added the results against common opponents (COP) and head-to-head (H2H) results to the rankings page. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Jim-that really looks good! Why doesn't the NCAA just hire you to figure out all of this stuff? It would make understanding all of this much easier for everyone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RD17 Posted October 15, 2004 Share Posted October 15, 2004 Based on this, UND needs Central Washington and Augie to win to get over 0.500 and Ferris to keep winning to stay over 0.700. CWU and Augie would offer an immediate boost. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> I think CWU has a very good shot at finishing over .500- they really only have one tough game left on their schedule, and even if they lose it, they finish 6-5. Ferris is 5-2, but 3 of their 4 remaining games are against VERY tough teams. It will take a much better effort than they showed last week for them to finish 8-3 or better and stay above the magical .700 mark. The other thing that's hurting UND's SSI that I expect will get better is Delta State. DSU is 3-3 having lost the last two weeks to very good teams on essentially the final play of the game. The rest of their games are very winnable though, so I think the chances are good that they run the table and finish 7-3. That would obviously be a big boost to UND if DSU finishes with a .700 record. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigmrg74 Posted October 16, 2004 Share Posted October 16, 2004 Cripes!!! GVSU and St. Cloud lose today, and Michigan Tech lays out a whoopin' on Northwood. How soon are you going to have the new numbers up Jim? I need to figure out how many beers its going to take me to forget that GVSU lost to F'ing Sag-Nasty today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiouxMeNow Posted October 17, 2004 Share Posted October 17, 2004 Cripes!!! GVSU and St. Cloud lose today, and Michigan Tech lays out a whoopin' on Northwood. How soon are you going to have the new numbers up Jim? I need to figure out how many beers its going to take me to forget that GVSU lost to F'ing Sag-Nasty today. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> can I send you a medicinal grinder?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigmrg74 Posted October 17, 2004 Share Posted October 17, 2004 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UND92,96 Posted October 17, 2004 Share Posted October 17, 2004 I have a feeling that whichever team gets the number one seed in the NW Region, and therefore won't need to travel, is going to have an even bigger advantage than usual. Road wins between teams ranked in the region have been very tough to come by this year. Of the probable top eight teams in the region right now (in no particular order)--UND, SCSU, USD, UNO, Winona St., GVSU, Mich. Tech and Northwood--I believe there's a grand total of one home loss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigmrg74 Posted October 31, 2004 Share Posted October 31, 2004 are you still working on this jim?? if you are, Thanks!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimdahl Posted October 31, 2004 Author Share Posted October 31, 2004 I never run the numbers until Sunday morning because I have to include the outcomes of all D-I games, and outcomes such as UNC over Miami aren't necessarily decided until 11-12pm Saturday. It's there now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigmrg74 Posted October 31, 2004 Share Posted October 31, 2004 Thanks Jim, Oh, this is going to be interesting. I stand half a chance of being really unpopular around here for a while. Who would have thought that would be happening before we are even into the playoffs? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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