NDSU decides to move to D-I

[jimdahl]

As anticipated, NDSU has decided to move to Division I-AA in football and Division I in all other sports. I'll have more news as it develops (though I guess there aren't really many other details worth reporting).

Though the decision had already been made, Northern Colorado also announced their intent to leave the NCC today.

Done with the news, and on to the opinion front:

If NDSU and UNC are successful in D-I, it seems likely that UND will have to more seriously consider moving within a few years.

[dbarker]

I think that UND will take a wait-and-see approach. If ndsu (and unc) fall flat on their faces and have major budget problems, then UND will stay in division II and continue to prosper. If the aforementioned two schools actually succeed, which I personally don't think will happen, then I think UND will make the move.

The thing about UNC that perplexes me is that they don't draw well at all in division II, so consequently I doubt they generate much revenue from ticket sales. It would seem that if you don't generate revenue from ticket sales, you would have a lot of trouble coming up with the money to increase the budget by several million dollars. I would be shocked if UNC can actually make a go of this.

NDSU depends very heavily on football to generate revenue. Last year, the one good home game they had was UNO, but since the mighty bison already had three losses at that point, the attendance was actually about 3,000 below their season average. My point is this: if a large percentage of their fans are of the fair weather variety, which it appears that they probably are, what will happen when the inevitable happens and they struggle? Will the crowds diminish considerably from where they were in division II? I think they are making the assumption that if you slap the division I label on it, people will all of a sudden come out in droves. I disagree. If you don't win, people will not get too excited about playing Northern Iowa or Western Illinois or Montana State.

[jimdahl]

In the press conference NDSU pledged to continue it's rivalry with UND. Moving to Division I-AA won't magically make NDSU a better football team overnight.

So, the question is: will NDSU really schedule games against a Division II opponent who is likely to beat them? For a while, the rivalry will exist, but in general you don't play lower conference schools who actually stand a chance of beating you. It's not good for your record. Of course, they're ineligible for post-season play for five years, so it won't matter much.

In the longer run, will having a D-I football down in Fargo hurt UND's recruiting significantly?

[TheSiouxFan]

This is a huge deal. If/when NDSU is division 1-AA I don't see then ever going back to division 2, no matter how much they loss at sports, and we all know eventually UND will follow, especially with the new record enrollments that are going on. UND just had there highest first day enrollment in school history with 11,887 and Kupchella expects 14,000 by 2005. If I had it my way i'd keep everything the same, UND, NDSU, UNC division 2, but it appears that's not going to happen, so it'd be best to have the NCC move to division 1. Didn't UND say they'd discontinue the rivalry with NDSU if they went division 1? I thought NDSU wouldn't move to division 1 without a committment from a conference?

[The Sicatoka]

You can read the NDSU press release at

http://www.gobison.com

My apologies for poluting this site with a link to that one.

[Wantagh]

well, since the U of M is having economic problems in the athletic department. One would have to wonder when this will happen to NDSU.

[ScottM]

A lot of SU/Stream Yellow partisans are of the opinion that they'll automatically play tier 1 teams like Minnesota, Nebraska, etc. Hardly. As noted, they'll play, maybe, teams like Northern Iowa, Idaho State, etc. Big deal. Teams like Minnesota, Michigan etc. will never go to Fargo to play, not in this century at least, unless it's some exhibition deal. (They may however play at REA. ) There are alot of D1 teams in FB and BB, most of which linger in no-name conferences, playing no-name teams.

At least in D2 the pool is smaller, and it's easier to be a big fish. I'd rather UND stay on tops academically, since we made Princeton Review's top-345 colleges book, again. And the poor cows, didn't again. We've always had a nice mix of strong academics and athletics, and I'd prefer it that way. It's too bad, but not surprising, the SU Boosters and administration's brains aren't as big as their egos.

Given how few D1 programs make money, and the increased costs of funding a competitive athletic program, I'd hope the UND admins and boosters think long and hard about making a move to D1. I personally don't think SU's experience is going to be very pleasant since they have no local conference to join and they will find out just how expensive it is to travel halfway across the nation every other weekend. I'd guess SU was probably thinking/hoping UND and a few other NCC schools would move at the same time and they could form a D1 conference locally. Ooops.

I agree in that I can't figure out why UNC, in a state with two other high-profile D1, programs is going to make the jump. Maybe they were smoking the same stuff SU's leadership was.

[jimdahl]

It was very interesting to me to read press coverage today (Saturday). The administration of NDSU seems to be intentionally slowing down it's transition with the hope that the other premiere NCC schools (particularly UND) will join them. That's really the only way the move makes sense -- if the top of the NCC all moves. It would maintain rivalries and keep costs manageable.

NDSU also pledged not to move without a conference affiliation, yet no conference seems willing to take them. They keep talking Big Sky, but what is their incentive to fly to Fargo for games? I think three years from now NDSU will be a member of the Mid-Continent conference. Is playing Oral Roberts, Southern Utah, Western Illinois, etc... really that much more impressive to Fargo fans than playing Mankato, UNC, and UND? I hope so, because travel costs will have quadrupled for that "upgrade".

Also, I hope NDSU fans are comfortable with having to cut a lot of programs. Budget problems will inevitably force them to cut non-revenue sports because of the increased expense of those non-revenue sports.

Back to my original point in this post -- I think if a large part of the NCC (5 members?) moved to D-IAA at the same time it would make sense for UND to be a part of that. Travel costs wouldn't change much, we'd have traditional rivals. Scholarship limits would increase somewhat, would be the biggest expense. I wish NDSU had tried harder to build support among the NCC's "big" schools to get a simultaneous move, even if it meant NDSU losing a little of the prestige of being the first to "upgrade".

[choyt3]

The most interesting sentence in the stories covering the NDSU press conference had to be "Few current NDSU coaches were present at the press conference." Isn't that odd? This is arguably the most significant athletic news at NDSU in quite some time, yet the coaches couldn't find the time to attend the press conference.

Did anyone notice the D-IAA power Southwest Texas State visited the Goofers yesterday? Got beat 42-0 but will receive $280,000 for that drubbing. Are the NDSU Teammakers going to put up with being a "real" D-I school's lapdog in order to pay the excessive bills for D-I? I sure can't see that being what a person would call "progress".

[Riverman]

The most interesting sentence in the stories covering the NDSU press conference had to be "Few current NDSU coaches were present at the press conference." Isn't that odd? This is arguably the most significant athletic news at NDSU in quite some time, yet the coaches couldn't find the time to attend the press conference.

Did anyone notice the D-IAA power Southwest Texas State visited the Goofers yesterday? Got beat 42-0 but will receive $280,000 for that drubbing. Are the NDSU Teammakers going to put up with being a "real" D-I school's lapdog in order to pay the excessive bills for D-I? I sure can't see that being what a person would call "progress".

Didn't here to much from the round ballers. 13 yrs before you can even play in a National.Note to NDSU

first you have to win in your own Division.

On the flip side how many more times can I watch UND beat up on the Crookstons? I paid how much to sit on the

50 yard line and you want me to continue?And now the talk is fill the NCC with Duluth? Are they not in the same league

as Crookston? How can you gain anything when your 4th line can even beat them?Roger, Dale please tell me there are

better things to come.

I t seems we don't want to play teams that might beat us in NC play because at the end of the year the selection

folks look at just w's and L's. And heavens forbid we would lose to a team like Grand Valley State.( a team I never heard of until last

year)

Maybe D1aa isn't so bad.

I think old Phil said it best: We welcome NDSU to Div1 sports we have 7 National Titles..

[diggerdan]

I think NDSU's decision is the right one for them. Although some of their fans are misquided in thinking they'll have big names coming to the Fargodome or that March Madness appearances will now be commonplace, most of the bison fans I know are realistic about the move.

The big question for UND is what is SDSU going to do. If the Jacks leave the NCC, that will leave only UND and USD as charter members. Although UNO will never go D-I, I suspect they will bolt a watered-down NCC for the MIAA. The NCC would be left with UND, USD, MSU-M, SCSU and Augie with possible new members like UM-Duluth, Southwest State, Winona, Northern State. Yuck. As Riverman pointed out, these are athletic programs on par with Crookston and Moorhead. And academically, nothing against these schools, but UND and USD are state flagship universities, they don't belong in the same athletic conference with the others. It's a scenario I'm not interested in.

If SDSU does not jump, it will be easier to keep UNO and adding Duluth will make a nice 8 team league. But if SDSU goes, UND must go also. Of course, then USD will be forced to follow and presto........a D-I NCC. I agree with Jim, this is exactly what NDSU is hoping happens.

[The Sicatoka]

presto........a D-I NCC. I agree with Jim, this is exactly what NDSU is hoping happens.

But why? Why have another Division I "also ran" league made up of UND, NDSU, USD, SDSU, and ..... who? I doubt UNO would ever jump with Nebraska 60 miles away and Creighton across the river and the D-II MIAA right there. St. Cloud or Mankato, even Duluth? Do they want to try to fight for more money against Minnesota in St. Paul? Augie won't go. They'll probably do what Morningside did (go D-III). And Northern Colorado is still a long way to travel.

So who else in this new D-I NCC? Northern Iowa? Who else? Don't just think football when you consider this. This moves all your programs to D-I. (UND versus Stanford in swimming?) You can't play anyone but D-I schools after that either. (UND versus Texas in baseball?)

Sorry, but if this happens I know that you and I had better treasure conference championship because, in my lifetime at least, the only Division I National Champions banners that'll be hung in a Division I NCC arena will be over a sheet of ice.

[dbarker]

Here's a statistic that I brought up some time ago on the d2football.com board but which apparently didn't resonate with too many people who are gung-ho about division I. Last year, Montana won the I-AA football championship and averaged around 20,000 per game in attendance. In other words, they probably did about as well as a I-AA football school can do in terms of football revenue. They also went to the NCAA tournament in mens basketball, which is a big deal financially and which any school moving up would have to wait a very long time to even be eligible to do. They offer far fewer sports than NCC schools do so that revenue didn't have to be spread as thin among several different sports as would happen at ndsu or any other ncc school that is moving up. And the athletic department still lost money (per an article in the Billings, Montana newspaper last spring). To me, that raises a lot of red flags right there.

I personally would like to see UND play better non-conference teams in football, and if it were possible to move to I-AA in football but remain in division II in other sports, I would be for it. However, since that is not possible, and judging by what happened at Montana last year, it appears that a move to division I would be potentially disastrous financially.

With regard to the potential for increased national exposure by going division I, keep in mind that the only way I-AA teams play on national tv is if they make it to the national championship game. Just like in division II. And God knows ndsu's basketball program is not exactly national tv-worthy. UND has played on either ESPN or ESPN2 a total of 11 times since 1997 (hockey 6 times, womens basketball 4 times and football once). Guess how many times ndsu has been on national tv during that time? Once. Is that going to change by going division I? Not likely. But heh, they might be on the ESPN and CNN tickers. I guess that's almost as good as playing on national TV

[diggerdan]

dbarker, do you have a link for that article? I'm a little confused because I was told the Grizzly athletic department made money last year. I do know that Montana State ran a $1 million deficit for fiscal year 2001, but alot of that was due to debt service on a stadium renovation. It's still a staggering amount.

I like the situation UND has right now. They are an important member of a highly competive and very successful D-II conference. However, that situation is changing and UND must at least explore the possibility of adjusting. You are known by the company you keep and I don't want the university to be considered a peer of Duluth, Bemidji, Crookston and Moorhead...or even Mankato and St. Cloud.

I'm fully aware that a move up involves all sports Sicatoka. But I believe the athletic department should strive towards a level of competition of the highest quality possible, not just national championships. UND is there now. But a conference composed of UND, USD and a bunch of middle tier Minnesota schools is going to wind up dragging the Sioux down. Mankato, Augie and St. Cloud will jump on the scholarship reduction train in a heartbeat if there was support. The result is that the product the Sioux put on the field, the court, or the pool will suffer. I'm in favor of maintaining the current level of quality in athletics, if not increasing it. If doing so means that conference championships are the goal rather than national championships, I'm okay with that.

Obviously $$$ is the the major factor in all of this and if UND can't raise the money to make the leap, the issue is moot. But I believe they must address the issue beyond a simple no thanks, not interested.

[dbarker]

dbarker, do you have a link for that article?  I'm a little confused because I was told the Grizzly athletic department made money last year.  I do know that Montana State ran a $1 million deficit for fiscal year 2001, but alot of that was due to debt service on a stadium renovation.  It's still a staggering amount.  

Diggerdan:

Here it is:

http://www.billingsgazette.com/index.php?d...kusekcolumn.inc

Upon re-reading this column, I guess it's possible that the deficit may have been pre-existing, and therefore I guess it is possible that UM made money last year. However, I think it's still a concern that a pretty successful mid-major program like Montana has a deficit of about three-quarters of a million dollars after a dream season like they just had.

[diggerdan]

Thank you. I agree, it is a concern. Also, Montana draws fairly well for both men's and women's basketball, roughly 3,500 per game. I don't think you can expect numbers better than that in either Fargo or Grand Forks.

As I said, maybe money dictates that we stay where we're at.

I should add that support for D-I at UND is being driven by football people, just like it was at NDSU. I'm a hockey first, football second and nothing else matters kind of guy. It's a bias that I acknowledge may cloud my judgment.

[Riverman]

diggerD,

I am w/you Hockey-Fball,B-Ball,all other sports are tied for fourth.

I was not happy w/ Roger tonight he state's NDSU has to do what they have to do ect. And with in 10 minutes time is saying how SCSU,Minn-Mankato,UNO ect do not desire to move up. Umm Roger I don't give a Rip

about said schools. If the NCC is to move up I believe we need 6 teams.

UND,NDSU,USD,SDSU, talk UNC to stay and maybe Northern Iowa to jump ship.

I still stick with my prior post: We always seem to worry about the selection

folks to decide where and when we should play. In past years we were rewarded w/ games against teams who cheated in (football) and were never punished!! Real fair. Roger you can forgive but I can't!

Imagine if we would have been beaten by Wino-state last year in football! How sad that would have been.We pay out all those Scholarships to be beat by some little school?Yikes!

As much as I like being a big fish in the small pond. How fair is for the kids to play teams like Crookston every week under a new NCC w/o the USD,SDSU,NDSU's?

[JBB]

Heres a positive look at the D1 move by NDSU:

The thing to remember is nothing lasts forever. It wasnt that long ago that UND football was in the tank. NDSU and UND have been pretty evenly matched over the past 5 yrs with UND getting the upper hand, especially last year, but NDSU is young and coming on again with a new team and a lot of talent in the wings.

Next year or the year after, or maybe even this year, your team will be second or third. Then what happens to your attendance? Where does it go when you are an average team in an average league with your big game coming when SCSU rolls into town. what if D2 downgrades even further? What if the NCC adds Kearny or Montana State-Billings? Travel costs will be up and revenues down in all D2 sports.

An intergal part of the D1 move at NDSU is to add ice hockey. When that happens NDSU will be D1 in all sports. we will also be competiting for hockey players and fans.

The quality of athletes coming to UND will probably decrease. Our 63 full ride scholarships are going to be looking pretty good when compared to sharing 36 or maybe 21. As D1AA grows and D2 shrinks the D1AA national fan base will grow as well. Same for basketball in Fargo. Scholarships will be up, competition will be better.

This morinings Forum has some insight into the future of the NCC. SDSU is expected to announce its intentions this fall. If they go the domino effect will certainly come about. The NCC is going to change dramatically and the big fish/small pond isnt going to be what it used to be. combine that with the certain exodus of other great programs from D2 including Davis and GVSU, etc. The old formula of D1 hockey D2 in all other sports isnt going to be as profitable as it once was. There is no way to increase revenues in D2. I think that future is watching all sports but hockey go down in intensity and interest. With competition from NDSU hockey may also stagnate.

.

[The Sicatoka]

JBB:

NDSU has stated that "going D-I" and "hockey" are mutually exclusive. This D-I move by NDSU signals that hockey isn't on their radar for a while.

That "domino" effect that you mention is exactly what NDSU hopes for in taking the "two year" approach. An NCC without UNC, NDSU, and SDSU would be not a good thing. NDSU hopes that their move 'creates' more local D-I(AA) programs and thus helps their travel budget (projected to have to double plus 25%).

The problem: What would a D-I NCC (IAA in FB) look like? NDSU, SDSU, UND, USD?, UNC? (would they still want to travel up here when a lot of D-IAA schools a lot closer to them?), UNI? (would the Panthers come back to the NCC? Remember they were a member long ago.)

Are the travel costs to the west coast (all flight) hurting Montana and Montana State? Would they leave the Big Sky? Bussing over plains is easier than bussing over mountains.

Like I've stated before, I have my doubts about SCSU or MnSU-Mankato or Omaha jumping up. Minnesota-Duluth may be a better possibility than those.

You need six teams to form an NCAA recognized league. Which six? The core of the NCC is four or five.

It all comes down to conference and money, and conference comes down to travel costs, which is money.

[The Sicatoka]

I just finished the article in The Foolem.

That's the domino effect, or more like a baseball batting order:

UNC led off

NDSU hit second

SDSU is at the plate

UND is on deck (like the article said)

USD is in the hole

[jimdahl]

We'd clearly need to find a couple more members to make a D-IAA NCC, and I don't know who those members would be. That said, I really think if we can make a D-IAA NCC, then UND should jump.

If we settled on that as a plan, we could probably get NDSU to wait (or at least not join some other conference) while we rallied USD/SDSU and tried to find another couple members. Jumping to D-IAA as the NCC would dramatically reduce the associated expense and let us move forward with some traditional rivals.

The bottom line is that D-II is changing. The best members are all leaving for D-IAA and the bottom is filling with former D-III teams ascending. The editorial in the Herald a few days ago by a formal football coach was very interesting -- his take was that UND should have jumped twenty years ago when our non-conference games were still against teams like Montana and UNLV. If we stay D-II, we will play more and more teams like Crookston and our talent pool will quickly dilute as even more players head to neighborhood D-IAA teams.

[The Sicatoka]

Problem: D-II becoming watered down with former D-IIIs.

Solution: Water down D-I with former D-IIs.

Uh, how about (a) fixing D-III, there must be a problem if teams are moving up, or (b) fixing D-II?

The NCAA admits all D-I teams are NOT equal, hence IA versus IAA football.

Why doesn't the NCAA create a complete IAA (all sports, or at least the major sports, FB and BB)?

If not, with Duke and NDSU in the same BB category and UND and Stanford in the same swimming category, how long until the largest of the D-Is solve the problem the way NDSU did? (Don't think the biggest of the bigs wouldn't love to form Division ELITE and not share any of the TV revenues.)

[jimdahl]

Problem: D-II becoming watered down with former D-IIIs.

Solution: Water down D-I with former D-IIs.

Uh, how about (a) fixing D-III, there must be a problem if teams are moving up, or (b) fixing D-II?

First, I agree entirely that there seem to be problems in the division system. However, that's an NCAA-wide problem that UND can't solve. Forced to make decisions within the existing system, I think the right thing to do is follow the group of teams that UND wants to play. Sure, I wish that Division II was the same as it was 20 years ago and that we were playing against Montana, NDSU, Northern Iowa, UNC, etc... However, UND can't make that happen. We have to decide whether to follow our traditional opponents to D-IAA or stay in D-II and play Crookston and Duluth.

On to the NCAA's viewpoint: I don't think they see it as a problem. Basketball (the only other sport REALLY important to the NCAA) benefits from having a diverse field of 300+ teams in D-I. The Cinderellas who win a round or two in the NCAA tournament make the NCAA a LOT of money and draw in fans across the country for the entire tournament. Sure, no one expects NDSU or UND to ever win the NCAA basketball tournament, but just making it a few times would generate many more basketball fans in N.D.

I don't think D-I will have the same "watering down" problems as D-II. In D-I, Duke will just choose not to play against UND or NDSU. No problem. Staying in D-II leaves UND with the problem that there's no one BUT Crookston to play. Also, the watering down of D-II and flight of the top programs has led to a situation in which many of the teams want to lower scholarship limits, a problem that will never occur in D-I.

[JBB]

D2 is getting watered down because as the division has changed the rules governing the division have reflected the attitude of the new members. There used to be 60+ football scholarships allowed in D2.

I dont see that happening in D1 or D1AA. It certainly wont be the result of institutions like Cal Davis, NDSU, SDSU and GVSU moving up. I also doubt that the NCAA is going to change the rules because UND doesnt want to move its sports up to the D1 level. I also dont think NDSU is going to wait around for anybody.

The BISON havent announced what conference they will join but I have a pretty good idea there are ripe opportunities available. The announcement wont come until SDSU makes its decision public. After that I think things will happen fast.

UND and the other NCC D1 hockey schools have been against this for a long time, since the 70's for some of them. In the meantime those schools have been the benefactors of that D1 affiliation. The newcomers have seen D1 hockey as the perfect compromise to going D1. Keep the other sports small and cheap and move into the D1 hockey neighborhood. That approach has severly limited the opportunities of schools like NDSU.

As a minor sport this loophole has allowed certain schools to enjoy at least a limited D1 status and they find that limited exposure beneficial.

Now, other schools like NDSU have waited as long as they intend too. Although hockey may be in the future plans for NDSU the administration has decided that full exposure to the benefits of D1 membership are worth the cost and the risk. One of the big reasons NDSU can make the move is the fact that they dont have the expense of a big hockey program. That can be added later as the shcool adjusts to the new cost/revenue structure.

Costs are going to go up in D2 just like everything else but revenues cannot be enhanced. NDSU is now first in line to solve that dilemma. They are embracing all sports at the D1 level, accepting the risks and also prepared to reap the rewards.

I would like UND to stay right where they are. The reasons they have cited for staying, and the criticism they have leveled at NDSU and its fans are legitimate, at least for Grand Forks. Things are different in Fargo. Over the years, as this unfolds, that will become glaringly apparent.

[The Sicatoka]

JBB:

What I'd like to see happen (a flash of fiscal reality come to Albrecht Boulevard) and what I expect are two different things.

I expect:

1. SDSU to go D-I. They're doing market assessment now. Grand Forks may not be Fargo, but Brookings sure isn't Grand Forks either. If they can do it (and I expect they will based on the signals their president is giving), UND surely can also. The hockey programs (plural) at UND are nearly self-sufficient with a sold out 12k seat arena. The new revenue situation for D-I at UND would be similar to that which NDSU faces except for the need for a new building for BB. (UND can use the new REA for big hoops games and is in process of moving BB and VB into old REA and making Hyslop the new campus wellness center. A campus wellness center is a D-I requirement. Coincidence? I think not.)

2. USD and UND, using a waterdown NCC, "they made us do it" rationale, make the same move. I say rationale because if the books are bad they can blame NDSU for forcing them into the move. (And we all know that NDSU is the source of all known evil. )

3. The new and improved D-I(AA) NCC sees SCSU, MnSU-Mankato, and Augie drop out. Northern Sun? I'd guess. Maybe Augie'd go D-III.

4. UNO joins the MIAA.

5. Northern Colorado petitions to keep their spot in the new NCC. Northern Iowa petitions to (re)join the NCC. UNI was a member long ago. (There's six: UND, UNC, NDSU, SDSU, USD, UNI.)

6. Minnesota-Duluth evaluates dropping the NSIC and joining the NCC. (Toss a coin here. It's that close.)

7. (OK, now I'm admittedly WAY out there.) Cal-Davis and another west coast school join the Big Sky. Montana and Montana State decide it's too expensive to fly west all the time and join the NCC. (Hey, they'd be the only tourney-eligible teams in hoops for quite a while. Why not?)

A new D-I(AA FB) NCC would take a lot of the costs out of the equation.

NDSU projects having to go from $700K to $1600K for travel. A D-I(AA) NCC would take that down a notch or two, probably into the middle of those two numbers (figure $1100K). That's a half million bucks that wouldn't have to be raised. That's a big difference. I believe that NDSU would love to see my "expect" scenario (well, 1 through 5) happen.