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WCHA Final Stretch (possible outcomes)


jimdahl

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I dusted off an old tool that cranked through the remaining WCHA possible outcomes. I always find it somewhat interesting this time of year, so enjoy...

TeamCurrent

Points

Conference

Series

Remaining

Possible

Final

Rankings

SCSU 31 3 1st-8th
  • Can clinch T-7th with 1 point this weekend
  • Can clinch 7th with 2 points this weekend
  • Can clinch T-6th with 3 points this weekend
  • Can clinch 5th with 4 points this weekend
Nebraska-Omaha 30 2 1st-8th
Mankato 29 2 1st-8th
UND 28 3 1st-T8th
  • Can clinch 8th with 1 point this weekend
  • Can clinch T-7th with 4 points this weekend
UMN 28 3 1st-T8th
  • Can clinch 8th with 1 point this weekend
  • Can clinch 7th with 4 points this weekend
UW 27 2 1st-9th
Denver 25 3 1st-9th
  • Can clinch T-8th with 3 points this weekend
  • Can clinch 8th with 4 points this weekend
  • Can no longer finish 1st with fewer than 1 point this weekend
CC 20 3 T1st-11th
  • Can clinch T-9th with 4 points this weekend
  • Can no longer finish T-1st with fewer than 4 points this weekend
  • Can no longer finish T-2nd with fewer than 3 points this weekend
  • Can no longer finish T-4th with fewer than 2 points this weekend
  • Can no longer finish 5th with fewer than 1 point this weekend
UMD 20 2 T5th-11th
  • Can clinch T-9th with 4 points this weekend
  • Can no longer finish T-5th with fewer than 4 points this weekend
  • Can no longer finish T-6th with fewer than 3 points this weekend
  • Can no longer finish 7th with fewer than 2 points this weekend
  • Can no longer finish T-7th with fewer than 1 point this weekend
Bemidji State 16 2 8th-11th
  • Can no longer earn home ice in WCHA playoffs
MTech 16 2 8th-11th
  • Can no longer earn home ice in WCHA playoffs
AA 10 1 12th-12th
  • Can no longer earn home ice in WCHA playoffs
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Every time I look at that program it's quite a trip down memory lane. It was the year after the What if calculator, which had created a frenzy of people trying to figure out the possible outcomes.

The problem with really doing so is that calculating all the possible outcomes across even just 14 series is still 268,435,456 possible outcomes (22,876,792,454,961 if you count ties, which we need to). So, you can't do it exhaustively that way, you instead need to come up with fancy tricks to eliminate combinations that don't matter. I remember optimizing that program for weeks trying to get it to run in a reasonable amount of time (e.g. an hour) back in 2003. The punch line -- on today's computers it runs in about 2 seconds.

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Every time I look at that program it's quite a trip down memory lane. It was the year after the What if calculator, which had created a frenzy of people trying to figure out the possible outcomes.

The problem with really doing so is that calculating all the possible outcomes across even just 14 series is still 268,435,456 possible outcomes (22,876,792,454,961 if you count ties, which we need to). So, you can't do it exhaustively that way, you instead need to come up with fancy tricks to eliminate combinations that don't matter. I remember optimizing that program for weeks trying to get it to run in a reasonable amount of time (e.g. an hour) back in 2003. The punch line -- on today's computers it runs in about 2 seconds.

Mathematics and statistics. What neat parlor tricks, Jim! I am beyond clueless how either work but I appreciate the way you lay out the possibilities for my feeble little brain to absorb. You rock!

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how does omaha get 3 points this weekend?

A fine question. My guess is that it has a poor sense of "this weekend" and is just referring to the next conference series. Let me double check that.

Edit -- yep, my guess was right. Back in the day, teams played full schedules this time of year so everyone had conference games every weekend. So, it really means that's what they can do in their next 2 games. I'll see if I can make that a little smarter. Thanks.

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Now I remember why I stopped doing this. Even with only two series remaining, it's so wide open as to almost be uninteresting. Seven teams can still finish 1st, but every one of them could also miss getting home ice. Sheesh.

TeamCurrent PointsConference Series RemainingPossible Final Rankings
SCSU 33 2 1st-7th
  • Can clinch T-6th with 1 point this weekend
  • Can clinch 4th with 2 points this weekend
UMN 31 2 1st-7th
  • Can clinch T-6th with 2 points this weekend
  • Can clinch T-5th with 3 points this weekend
  • Can clinch 4th with 4 points this weekend
UND 30 2 1st-T7th
  • Can clinch 7th with 1 point this weekend
  • Can clinch T-6th with 4 points this weekend
Nebraska-Omaha 30 2 1st-T7th
  • Can clinch 7th with 1 point this weekend
  • Can clinch 6th with 3 points this weekend
  • Can no longer finish 1st with fewer than 1 point this weekend
Mankato 29 2 1st-8th
  • Can clinch 7th with 1 point this weekend
  • Can no longer finish 1st with fewer than 1 point this weekend
UW 27 2 1st-8th
  • Can clinch T-7th with 3 points this weekend
  • Can clinch 7th with 4 points this weekend
  • Can no longer finish 1st with fewer than 3 points this weekend
  • Can no longer finish T-1st with fewer than 2 points this weekend
  • Can no longer finish T-3rd with fewer than 1 point this weekend
Denver 27 2 1st-8th
  • Can clinch T-7th with 3 points this weekend
  • Can clinch 7th with 4 points this weekend
  • Can no longer finish 1st with fewer than 3 points this weekend
  • Can no longer finish T-1st with fewer than 2 points this weekend
  • Can no longer finish T-3rd with fewer than 1 point this weekend
CC 22 2 5th-11th
  • Can clinch T-9th with 2 points this weekend
  • Can clinch T-8th with 3 points this weekend
  • Can clinch 8th with 4 points this weekend
  • Can no longer finish 5th with fewer than 4 points this weekend
  • Can no longer finish 6th with fewer than 2 points this weekend
  • Can no longer finish T-6th with fewer than 1 point this weekend
UMD 21 1 8th-11th
  • Can no longer earn home ice in WCHA playoffs
Bemidji State 16 2 8th-11th
  • Can no longer earn home ice in WCHA playoffs
  • Can no longer finish 8th with fewer than 3 points this weekend
  • Can no longer finish T-8th with fewer than 2 points this weekend
  • Can no longer finish T-9th with fewer than 1 point this weekend
MTech 16 2 8th-11th
  • Can no longer earn home ice in WCHA playoffs
  • Can no longer finish 8th with fewer than 3 points this weekend
  • Can no longer finish T-8th with fewer than 2 points this weekend
  • Can no longer finish T-9th with fewer than 1 point this weekend
AA 10 1 12th-12th
  • Can no longer earn home ice in WCHA playoffs
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Now I remember why I stopped doing this. Even with only two series remaining, it's so wide open as to almost be uninteresting. Seven teams can still finish 1st, but every one of them could also miss getting home ice. Sheesh. Team Current Points Conference Series Remaining Possible Final Rankings SCSU 33 2 1st-7th

  • Can clinch T-6th with 1 point this weekend
  • Can clinch 4th with 2 points this weekend

    • Can clinch T-6th with 2 points this weekend
    • Can clinch T-5th with 3 points this weekend
    • Can clinch 4th with 4 points this weekend

      • Can clinch 7th with 1 point this weekend
      • Can clinch T-6th with 4 points this weekend

        • Can clinch 7th with 1 point this weekend
        • Can clinch 6th with 3 points this weekend
        • Can no longer finish 1st with fewer than 1 point this weekend

          • Can clinch 7th with 1 point this weekend
          • Can no longer finish 1st with fewer than 1 point this weekend

            • Can clinch T-7th with 3 points this weekend
            • Can clinch 7th with 4 points this weekend
            • Can no longer finish 1st with fewer than 3 points this weekend
            • Can no longer finish T-1st with fewer than 2 points this weekend
            • Can no longer finish T-3rd with fewer than 1 point this weekend

              • Can clinch T-7th with 3 points this weekend
              • Can clinch 7th with 4 points this weekend
              • Can no longer finish 1st with fewer than 3 points this weekend
              • Can no longer finish T-1st with fewer than 2 points this weekend
              • Can no longer finish T-3rd with fewer than 1 point this weekend

              CC 22 2 5th-11th

              [*]Can clinch T-9th with 2 points this weekend

              [*]Can clinch T-8th with 3 points this weekend

              [*]Can clinch 8th with 4 points this weekend

              [*]Can no longer finish 5th with fewer than 4 points this weekend

              [*]Can no longer finish 6th with fewer than 2 points this weekend

              [*]Can no longer finish T-6th with fewer than 1 point this weekend

              UMD 21 1 8th-11th

              [*]Can no longer earn home ice in WCHA playoffs

              Bemidji State 16 2 8th-11th

              [*]Can no longer earn home ice in WCHA playoffs

              [*]Can no longer finish 8th with fewer than 3 points this weekend

              [*]Can no longer finish T-8th with fewer than 2 points this weekend

              [*]Can no longer finish T-9th with fewer than 1 point this weekend

              MTech 16 2 8th-11th

              [*]Can no longer earn home ice in WCHA playoffs

              [*]Can no longer finish 8th with fewer than 3 points this weekend

              [*]Can no longer finish T-8th with fewer than 2 points this weekend

              [*]Can no longer finish T-9th with fewer than 1 point this weekend

              AA 10 1 12th-12th

              [*]Can no longer earn home ice in WCHA playoffs

              Yeah, nothing even close to definitive here but thanks anyways! haha it is really close this year even compared to previous years so that doesn't help anything.

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And this is it...

TeamCurrent PointsConference Series RemainingPossible Final Rankings
SCSU 35 1 1st-T3rd
  • Has secured home ice in WCHA playoffs
  • Can clinch 3rd with 1 point this weekend
  • Can clinch T-1st with 2 points this weekend
  • Can clinch 1st with 3 points this weekend
  • Can no longer finish 1st with fewer than 1 point this weekend
UND 33 1 1st-T6th
  • Can clinch T-4th with 1 point this weekend
  • Can clinch 3rd with 2 points this weekend
  • Can clinch T-2nd with 4 points this weekend
  • Can no longer finish 1st with fewer than 3 points this weekend
  • Can no longer finish T-1st with fewer than 2 points this weekend
  • Can no longer finish T-2nd with fewer than 1 point this weekend
UMN 33 1 1st-T6th
  • Can clinch T-4th with 1 point this weekend
  • Can clinch 3rd with 2 points this weekend
  • Can clinch T-2nd with 4 points this weekend
  • Can no longer finish 1st with fewer than 3 points this weekend
  • Can no longer finish T-1st with fewer than 2 points this weekend
  • Can no longer finish T-2nd with fewer than 1 point this weekend
UW 31 1 T1st-7th
  • Can clinch T-6th with 2 points this weekend
  • Can clinch T-4th with 3 points this weekend
  • Can clinch T-3rd with 4 points this weekend
  • Can no longer finish T-1st with fewer than 4 points this weekend
  • Can no longer finish T-2nd with fewer than 3 points this weekend
  • Can no longer finish T-3rd with fewer than 2 points this weekend
  • Can no longer finish 4th with fewer than 1 point this weekend
Mankato 31 1 T1st-7th
  • Can clinch T-6th with 2 points this weekend
  • Can clinch T-4th with 3 points this weekend
  • Can clinch 3rd with 4 points this weekend
  • Can no longer finish T-1st with fewer than 4 points this weekend
  • Can no longer finish T-2nd with fewer than 3 points this weekend
  • Can no longer finish T-3rd with fewer than 2 points this weekend
  • Can no longer finish 4th with fewer than 1 point this weekend
Nebraska-Omaha 30 1 T2nd-7th
  • Can clinch T-6th with 3 points this weekend
  • Can clinch 5th with 4 points this weekend
  • Can no longer finish T-2nd with fewer than 4 points this weekend
  • Can no longer finish T-3rd with fewer than 3 points this weekend
  • Can no longer finish 4th with fewer than 2 points this weekend
  • Can no longer finish T-4th with fewer than 1 point this weekend
Denver 29 1 T3rd-7th
  • Can no longer finish T-3rd with fewer than 4 points this weekend
  • Can no longer finish 4th with fewer than 3 points this weekend
  • Can no longer finish T-4th with fewer than 2 points this weekend
  • Can no longer finish T-6th with fewer than 1 point this weekend
CC 24 1 8th-9th
  • Can no longer earn home ice in WCHA playoffs
  • Can clinch T-8th with 1 point this weekend
  • Can clinch 8th with 2 points this weekend
UMD 21 1 8th-T10th
  • Can no longer earn home ice in WCHA playoffs
  • Can clinch T-9th with 1 point this weekend
  • Can clinch 9th with 2 points this weekend
  • Can no longer finish 8th with fewer than 4 points this weekend
  • Can no longer finish T-8th with fewer than 3 points this weekend
MTech 18 1 9th-11th
  • Can no longer earn home ice in WCHA playoffs
  • Can clinch T-10th with 3 points this weekend
  • Can clinch 10th with 4 points this weekend
  • Can no longer finish 9th with fewer than 4 points this weekend
  • Can no longer finish T-9th with fewer than 3 points this weekend
Bemidji State 17 1 T9th-11th
  • Can no longer earn home ice in WCHA playoffs
  • Can no longer finish T-9th with fewer than 4 points this weekend
  • Can no longer finish 10th with fewer than 2 points this weekend
  • Can no longer finish T-10th with fewer than 1 point this weekend
AA 10 1 12th-12th
  • Can no longer earn home ice in WCHA playoffs
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