jimdahl Posted February 22, 2013 Posted February 22, 2013 I dusted off an old tool that cranked through the remaining WCHA possible outcomes. I always find it somewhat interesting this time of year, so enjoy... TeamCurrentPointsConferenceSeriesRemainingPossibleFinalRankingsSCSU 31 3 1st-8th Can clinch T-7th with 1 point this weekend Can clinch 7th with 2 points this weekend Can clinch T-6th with 3 points this weekend Can clinch 5th with 4 points this weekend Nebraska-Omaha 30 2 1st-8th Mankato 29 2 1st-8th UND 28 3 1st-T8th Can clinch 8th with 1 point this weekend Can clinch T-7th with 4 points this weekend UMN 28 3 1st-T8th Can clinch 8th with 1 point this weekend Can clinch 7th with 4 points this weekend UW 27 2 1st-9th Denver 25 3 1st-9th Can clinch T-8th with 3 points this weekend Can clinch 8th with 4 points this weekend Can no longer finish 1st with fewer than 1 point this weekend CC 20 3 T1st-11th Can clinch T-9th with 4 points this weekend Can no longer finish T-1st with fewer than 4 points this weekend Can no longer finish T-2nd with fewer than 3 points this weekend Can no longer finish T-4th with fewer than 2 points this weekend Can no longer finish 5th with fewer than 1 point this weekend UMD 20 2 T5th-11th Can clinch T-9th with 4 points this weekend Can no longer finish T-5th with fewer than 4 points this weekend Can no longer finish T-6th with fewer than 3 points this weekend Can no longer finish 7th with fewer than 2 points this weekend Can no longer finish T-7th with fewer than 1 point this weekend Bemidji State 16 2 8th-11th Can no longer earn home ice in WCHA playoffs MTech 16 2 8th-11th Can no longer earn home ice in WCHA playoffs AA 10 1 12th-12th Can no longer earn home ice in WCHA playoffs 1 Quote
jimdahl Posted February 22, 2013 Author Posted February 22, 2013 Every time I look at that program it's quite a trip down memory lane. It was the year after the What if calculator, which had created a frenzy of people trying to figure out the possible outcomes. The problem with really doing so is that calculating all the possible outcomes across even just 14 series is still 268,435,456 possible outcomes (22,876,792,454,961 if you count ties, which we need to). So, you can't do it exhaustively that way, you instead need to come up with fancy tricks to eliminate combinations that don't matter. I remember optimizing that program for weeks trying to get it to run in a reasonable amount of time (e.g. an hour) back in 2003. The punch line -- on today's computers it runs in about 2 seconds. 2 Quote
YaneA Posted February 22, 2013 Posted February 22, 2013 Every time I look at that program it's quite a trip down memory lane. It was the year after the What if calculator, which had created a frenzy of people trying to figure out the possible outcomes. The problem with really doing so is that calculating all the possible outcomes across even just 14 series is still 268,435,456 possible outcomes (22,876,792,454,961 if you count ties, which we need to). So, you can't do it exhaustively that way, you instead need to come up with fancy tricks to eliminate combinations that don't matter. I remember optimizing that program for weeks trying to get it to run in a reasonable amount of time (e.g. an hour) back in 2003. The punch line -- on today's computers it runs in about 2 seconds. Mathematics and statistics. What neat parlor tricks, Jim! I am beyond clueless how either work but I appreciate the way you lay out the possibilities for my feeble little brain to absorb. You rock! 2 Quote
siouxweet Posted February 22, 2013 Posted February 22, 2013 how does omaha get 3 points this weekend? Quote
jimdahl Posted February 22, 2013 Author Posted February 22, 2013 how does omaha get 3 points this weekend? A fine question. My guess is that it has a poor sense of "this weekend" and is just referring to the next conference series. Let me double check that. Edit -- yep, my guess was right. Back in the day, teams played full schedules this time of year so everyone had conference games every weekend. So, it really means that's what they can do in their next 2 games. I'll see if I can make that a little smarter. Thanks. Quote
jimdahl Posted February 27, 2013 Author Posted February 27, 2013 Now I remember why I stopped doing this. Even with only two series remaining, it's so wide open as to almost be uninteresting. Seven teams can still finish 1st, but every one of them could also miss getting home ice. Sheesh. TeamCurrent PointsConference Series RemainingPossible Final RankingsSCSU 33 2 1st-7th Can clinch T-6th with 1 point this weekend Can clinch 4th with 2 points this weekend UMN 31 2 1st-7th Can clinch T-6th with 2 points this weekend Can clinch T-5th with 3 points this weekend Can clinch 4th with 4 points this weekend UND 30 2 1st-T7th Can clinch 7th with 1 point this weekend Can clinch T-6th with 4 points this weekend Nebraska-Omaha 30 2 1st-T7th Can clinch 7th with 1 point this weekend Can clinch 6th with 3 points this weekend Can no longer finish 1st with fewer than 1 point this weekend Mankato 29 2 1st-8th Can clinch 7th with 1 point this weekend Can no longer finish 1st with fewer than 1 point this weekend UW 27 2 1st-8th Can clinch T-7th with 3 points this weekend Can clinch 7th with 4 points this weekend Can no longer finish 1st with fewer than 3 points this weekend Can no longer finish T-1st with fewer than 2 points this weekend Can no longer finish T-3rd with fewer than 1 point this weekend Denver 27 2 1st-8th Can clinch T-7th with 3 points this weekend Can clinch 7th with 4 points this weekend Can no longer finish 1st with fewer than 3 points this weekend Can no longer finish T-1st with fewer than 2 points this weekend Can no longer finish T-3rd with fewer than 1 point this weekend CC 22 2 5th-11th Can clinch T-9th with 2 points this weekend Can clinch T-8th with 3 points this weekend Can clinch 8th with 4 points this weekend Can no longer finish 5th with fewer than 4 points this weekend Can no longer finish 6th with fewer than 2 points this weekend Can no longer finish T-6th with fewer than 1 point this weekend UMD 21 1 8th-11th Can no longer earn home ice in WCHA playoffs Bemidji State 16 2 8th-11th Can no longer earn home ice in WCHA playoffs Can no longer finish 8th with fewer than 3 points this weekend Can no longer finish T-8th with fewer than 2 points this weekend Can no longer finish T-9th with fewer than 1 point this weekend MTech 16 2 8th-11th Can no longer earn home ice in WCHA playoffs Can no longer finish 8th with fewer than 3 points this weekend Can no longer finish T-8th with fewer than 2 points this weekend Can no longer finish T-9th with fewer than 1 point this weekend AA 10 1 12th-12th Can no longer earn home ice in WCHA playoffs Quote
InHeavenThereIsNoBeer Posted February 27, 2013 Posted February 27, 2013 Now I remember why I stopped doing this. Even with only two series remaining, it's so wide open as to almost be uninteresting. Seven teams can still finish 1st, but every one of them could also miss getting home ice. Sheesh. Team Current Points Conference Series Remaining Possible Final Rankings SCSU 33 2 1st-7th Can clinch T-6th with 1 point this weekendCan clinch 4th with 2 points this weekendCan clinch T-6th with 2 points this weekendCan clinch T-5th with 3 points this weekendCan clinch 4th with 4 points this weekendCan clinch 7th with 1 point this weekendCan clinch T-6th with 4 points this weekendCan clinch 7th with 1 point this weekendCan clinch 6th with 3 points this weekendCan no longer finish 1st with fewer than 1 point this weekendCan clinch 7th with 1 point this weekendCan no longer finish 1st with fewer than 1 point this weekendCan clinch T-7th with 3 points this weekendCan clinch 7th with 4 points this weekendCan no longer finish 1st with fewer than 3 points this weekendCan no longer finish T-1st with fewer than 2 points this weekendCan no longer finish T-3rd with fewer than 1 point this weekendCan clinch T-7th with 3 points this weekendCan clinch 7th with 4 points this weekendCan no longer finish 1st with fewer than 3 points this weekendCan no longer finish T-1st with fewer than 2 points this weekendCan no longer finish T-3rd with fewer than 1 point this weekend CC 22 2 5th-11th [*]Can clinch T-9th with 2 points this weekend [*]Can clinch T-8th with 3 points this weekend [*]Can clinch 8th with 4 points this weekend [*]Can no longer finish 5th with fewer than 4 points this weekend [*]Can no longer finish 6th with fewer than 2 points this weekend [*]Can no longer finish T-6th with fewer than 1 point this weekend UMD 21 1 8th-11th [*]Can no longer earn home ice in WCHA playoffs Bemidji State 16 2 8th-11th [*]Can no longer earn home ice in WCHA playoffs [*]Can no longer finish 8th with fewer than 3 points this weekend [*]Can no longer finish T-8th with fewer than 2 points this weekend [*]Can no longer finish T-9th with fewer than 1 point this weekend MTech 16 2 8th-11th [*]Can no longer earn home ice in WCHA playoffs [*]Can no longer finish 8th with fewer than 3 points this weekend [*]Can no longer finish T-8th with fewer than 2 points this weekend [*]Can no longer finish T-9th with fewer than 1 point this weekend AA 10 1 12th-12th [*]Can no longer earn home ice in WCHA playoffs Yeah, nothing even close to definitive here but thanks anyways! haha it is really close this year even compared to previous years so that doesn't help anything. Quote
jimdahl Posted March 7, 2013 Author Posted March 7, 2013 And this is it... TeamCurrent PointsConference Series RemainingPossible Final RankingsSCSU 35 1 1st-T3rd Has secured home ice in WCHA playoffs Can clinch 3rd with 1 point this weekend Can clinch T-1st with 2 points this weekend Can clinch 1st with 3 points this weekend Can no longer finish 1st with fewer than 1 point this weekend UND 33 1 1st-T6th Can clinch T-4th with 1 point this weekend Can clinch 3rd with 2 points this weekend Can clinch T-2nd with 4 points this weekend Can no longer finish 1st with fewer than 3 points this weekend Can no longer finish T-1st with fewer than 2 points this weekend Can no longer finish T-2nd with fewer than 1 point this weekend UMN 33 1 1st-T6th Can clinch T-4th with 1 point this weekend Can clinch 3rd with 2 points this weekend Can clinch T-2nd with 4 points this weekend Can no longer finish 1st with fewer than 3 points this weekend Can no longer finish T-1st with fewer than 2 points this weekend Can no longer finish T-2nd with fewer than 1 point this weekend UW 31 1 T1st-7th Can clinch T-6th with 2 points this weekend Can clinch T-4th with 3 points this weekend Can clinch T-3rd with 4 points this weekend Can no longer finish T-1st with fewer than 4 points this weekend Can no longer finish T-2nd with fewer than 3 points this weekend Can no longer finish T-3rd with fewer than 2 points this weekend Can no longer finish 4th with fewer than 1 point this weekend Mankato 31 1 T1st-7th Can clinch T-6th with 2 points this weekend Can clinch T-4th with 3 points this weekend Can clinch 3rd with 4 points this weekend Can no longer finish T-1st with fewer than 4 points this weekend Can no longer finish T-2nd with fewer than 3 points this weekend Can no longer finish T-3rd with fewer than 2 points this weekend Can no longer finish 4th with fewer than 1 point this weekend Nebraska-Omaha 30 1 T2nd-7th Can clinch T-6th with 3 points this weekend Can clinch 5th with 4 points this weekend Can no longer finish T-2nd with fewer than 4 points this weekend Can no longer finish T-3rd with fewer than 3 points this weekend Can no longer finish 4th with fewer than 2 points this weekend Can no longer finish T-4th with fewer than 1 point this weekend Denver 29 1 T3rd-7th Can no longer finish T-3rd with fewer than 4 points this weekend Can no longer finish 4th with fewer than 3 points this weekend Can no longer finish T-4th with fewer than 2 points this weekend Can no longer finish T-6th with fewer than 1 point this weekend CC 24 1 8th-9th Can no longer earn home ice in WCHA playoffs Can clinch T-8th with 1 point this weekend Can clinch 8th with 2 points this weekend UMD 21 1 8th-T10th Can no longer earn home ice in WCHA playoffs Can clinch T-9th with 1 point this weekend Can clinch 9th with 2 points this weekend Can no longer finish 8th with fewer than 4 points this weekend Can no longer finish T-8th with fewer than 3 points this weekend MTech 18 1 9th-11th Can no longer earn home ice in WCHA playoffs Can clinch T-10th with 3 points this weekend Can clinch 10th with 4 points this weekend Can no longer finish 9th with fewer than 4 points this weekend Can no longer finish T-9th with fewer than 3 points this weekend Bemidji State 17 1 T9th-11th Can no longer earn home ice in WCHA playoffs Can no longer finish T-9th with fewer than 4 points this weekend Can no longer finish 10th with fewer than 2 points this weekend Can no longer finish T-10th with fewer than 1 point this weekend AA 10 1 12th-12th Can no longer earn home ice in WCHA playoffs Quote
Sioux-cia Posted March 7, 2013 Posted March 7, 2013 Wow, what a mess this league is... We're the best league in the country.......until next season! 1 Quote
AZSIOUX Posted March 7, 2013 Posted March 7, 2013 Between the WCHA and hockey east my mind goes crazy reading all scenarios many meaningful games this weekend in college hockey! Thanks as always for the breakdowns jim! Quote
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