If it was known as an emerging pandemic at that time, why then, a week later, was de Blasio, and every other high ranking official in his administration in NYC encouraging everyone to get out and about, go to parades, and live life normally?
In summary: There are too many variables and too many unknowns to allow us to provide any accurate information other than to encourage the strictest of social distancing measures. Once there is enough hard data available and the trend becomes obvious, our models will also make sense, and not produce erratically variable daily results.