SJHovey

I know there are still some people out there, Chris Dilks among them, who still like to yank the chain of NCHC fans by teasing about lack of television exposure and the like, but anyone who is honest about it has to agree that the NCHC has been an unmitigated success, and probably beyond what the member institutions could have hoped for in just the first four seasons. As Brad noted in his blog, seven of the total of sixteen spots in the Frozen Four since conference realignment have belonged to NCHC teams. Four different NCHC programs have made the Frozen Four. One national championship, and decent chance at a second this year. Seven of the eight programs have made the NCAAs since realignment. Seven of eight have hosted a first round conference playoff series. Four different conference tournament winners in four years. Three different conference regular season winners in four years. The only conference that's managed to hold its conference tournament together. All that said, if (and it's a huge and unlikely "if") the B1G were to ever come calling for UND, the school would have to take a pretty serious look at it. It is hard to compete with size and money in college athletics, and the B1G schools have pretty much every advantage you can think of over the rest of college hockey. I don't really worry about how much they've underachieved to date (a considerable amount, imho). They won't always be terrible. Furthermore, and this may sound a bit arrogant, but I think that whatever conference UND joins is going to be very successful just because of the commitment made by both the school and the fans to the program. Just my two cents.

Providence has a 96% chance of making it, but the strange thing is it doesn't really take a bunch of crazy outcomes to keep them out. Let's assume: Higher seeds win AHA and WCHA games. Cornell beats Harvard in the ECAC. DU beats UMD, and we beat WMU in the NCHC. BC beats BU, then beats Lowell. None of that is too crazy, or unrealistic. But if it happens, then the B1G could really screw Providence. OSU and PSU win their first round games, which they should, then upset MN and Wisconsin. An OSU win in the title game is it all it would take to knock out 96% Providence. We can say what we want about the B1G, but all eyes are going to be on their scoreboard (if not actually in the arena).

Yeah, I was answering your question, I just didn't quote you.

I think someone posted yesterday they were surprised Providence had a better chance of getting in than we did, given that they lost their first round series. It was then pointed out to that poster that is the reason their chances are better. No opportunity to lose additional games.

Yeah, I think it will be interesting after the Thursday games once Jim Dahl and the guys at CHN and USCHO crunch the numbers to see where everyone stands going into Friday. I have to believe that if both PSU and OSU crap the bed on Thursday and lose that we have to be as close to in as you can get without actually being there.

It makes complete sense. If I were a team I'd always rather play the early game. It sucks playing the late game, then getting up and playing the early game the next afternoon.

I know the primary issue is getting us into the tournament. But has anyone checked to see how high we can get if we win the Frozen Faceoff? I can't get us higher than 7th. I can get us past Union, but not BU. Edit: I should add that I ask this question because the CHN probability matrix shows that 1.2% of the outcomes have us higher than 7, but I haven't found them just playing around.

Pairwise predictor up on USCHO

I disagree with this, especially with respect to Providence and Wisconsin. We just need the games to go "pairwise chalk" this week. Wisconsin dumps Ohio St. two games. Providence knocks off Notre Dame. We beat SCSU. I'm more interested in seeing all those teams behind us get drilled, and basically have their season ended.

Let me get this right. We're pinning our hopes on teams ranked 36, 53, and 58 in the pairwise, with a collective record of 18-69-9, and all of them play on the road against ranked teams? So, you're saying there's a chance.....

The other thing to consider about the Frozen Faceoff is, assuming you are fan of college hockey, the possibility of seeing a really excellent championship game. Even if UND is not in the tournament, or the championship game, a UMD-DU final would be excellent, and probably determine the #1 overall seed.

Personally I always had a blast at the conference tournaments, whether played at the old St. Paul Civic Center, Xcel or Target Center, even if UND wasn't in the tournament. In fact those were some of the funnest experiences I had. No anxiety regarding the games. You got to cheer for whoever you wanted, and usually against Minnesota. I wouldn't miss it even if UND did.

I agree this is a big weekend. A sweep would set us up for possibly finishing with a very high seed, while anything less than a split probably knocks us off the bubble, at least for now. However, as for the team making a run, I think all we have to do is get in. At least half the team has got a bunch of NCAA tournament games under their belt. Ending up in the same region as UMD would be tough, but any other draw does not scare me. We can play and beat teams like Denver, MN, Harvard, etc..., especially in Fargo. You can look back to a year like 2004-05. We were 15-10-3 at the end of January (compared to 15-11-3 today). We played about .500 hockey from there to the end of the regular season. I think we even had a losing record in the regular season after Christmas that year. But the team got on a bit of a roll in the first round against Duluth, finished 3rd in St. Paul, and rode the coattails of a strong WCHA into the tournament. I see no reason why this team can't do the same.

I believe the real reason is this. They will not award the regional to an on campus rink, unless it is the only bidder for that regional. That exception is the reason that I think a regional was held at Notre Dame not long ago. UND wants home ice advantage, but if the Ralph bid, and then say Xcel or some other arena bid, the Ralph would have no chance. Thus, UND has elected to use Fargo as its arena of choice. Still played in North Dakota in front of a home crowd, but we don't have to worry about missing out on the bid just because there was one other bidder.

I would guess, without knowing what is in the contract, there is very little chance the game could be moved to T-Mobile. First, the two arenas are owned by entirely different gaming companies. The Orleans is owned by Boyd Gaming, T-Mobile is connected to the MGM company, iirc. If they were the same company, you'd have a shot. Second, it's one thing for there to be demand as voiced on a message board or two, and another to sell an additional 10,000 tickets. The champions club was the low hanging fruit. These are the hardcore fans, the ones who put up the extra money to join the club and buy season tickets. There may be champion club members who might buy a few more tickets, but do we sell 10,000 more? Third, the demand for tickets, from the champions club, was probably increased at least in some small way by the anticipated ticket shortage. If people knew there were going to be 17,000 seats available, people would have waited to make sure their travel plans could be made, especially at $100/ticket. But the promoters can't take that chance. They want the tickets sold now. Think of the regional in Fargo. Let's say UND makes the tournament, and MN is placed there. Sure it would be great if the arena was twice the size. But if you're putting on the event, you want to sell the 5000 tickets now, while there is still some uncertainty about whether UND will be there, but a shortage of tickets. Bird in the hand. Finally, it's not in UND's best interest to move it. Think about what happens the next time a destination game is scheduled. Everyone here will remember the shortage of tickets in Vegas. Artificial demand has now been created.

I've attended every conference tournament since the WCHA started holding them in 1988, and this year will be no different. I understand not going if it's family or resources, etc... But to not go because of Target Center is just creating an excuse to bail, imho.

The Minnesota release on the game said they will receive a "limited number of tickets." http://www.gophersports.com/sports/m-hockey/spec-rel/072716aaa.html

According to Wiki, the Orleans Arena holds 7773 for ice hockey.

It truly is the nightmare scenario for the NCAA selection committee. They need UND to either miss the tournament or, more ideally, make it up to a #2 or #3 seed. That way they can park Duluth close to home in Fargo, match up UND with someone like Minnesota in the #2-#3 matchup, and let Duluth play an autobid like Bemidji.

Let's say that UMD, DU and Western Michigan all end up as #1 seeds, and we end up a #4. Let's also assume BU is the other #1 seed, and that there are only four NCHC teams in the tournament. There is no doubt in my mind that BU would be coming to Fargo, UNLESS one fact existed. If BU were the overall #1 see there is a chance they would go ahead and match up NCHC teams in Fargo, but even in that scenario I still think it would be about 55/45 BU would be here. There are two holies of holies for the NCAA. The host team plays at home and no first round matchups between conference members unless it completely destroys bracket integrity.

It would not shock me at all if by the time the B1G playoffs roll around that Minnesota and Wisconsin are the only two B1G teams in contention for an at-large bid.

I think for once we're going to have to defer to DaveK on this one. If there is anyone who should be an expert on underachieving, it's a Minnesota fan. Any other college hockey program with the built in advantages Minnesota has had (major university and money that goes with it, only major university in a hockey mad state, B1G tv money, etc...) would have managed 12-15 national championships easy by now.

Three or four years ago I looked at the tournament fields and concluded that if you are a program from a major conference (i.e., not Atlantic hockey or the current version of the WCHA) you need 21-22 wins by selection Sunday to make it into the 16 team field. There are the occasional outliers, and a poor season by the rest of your conference (see: B1G 2015, 2016) can hurt you, but generally speaking, 21-22 wins puts you in solid shape. With the strength of the NCHC this year, unless strange things happen with the autobids, I think we're a lock with 22 wins and probably pretty good with 21. We have 13 right now. I think we need a minimum of 8, or maybe 9, including the NCHC playoffs, to put ourselves inside the bubble. If we get Jim's 6 wins during the regular season, losses in the first round or at Target Center may knock us out. My hope is the team finds a way to win at least 7 of the last 10 regular season games, then see where that takes us.

With respect to Penn St., their season gives me a sense of deja vu. Their season, and all the discussion fans and writers are having about it, remind me so much of the 2010-11 Yale season. Up to that time the ECAC had been pretty terrible. Yale did have a couple of appearances in the tournament including some upsets that we remember, but generally speaking they received no respect in the hockey world, nor did the ECAC. At about this point in that season, Yale was something like 17-1 or 18-2. They were elevated to #1 in the polls, much to the outrage of everyone who pointed out they literally had beaten no one of any consequence to that point. Generally, people who claimed to be "in the know" just said "wait and see what happens." Yale did start to lose a few games, but because of their hot start maintained a pretty high ranking going into the tournament. In the NCAA's, they escaped a scrappy Air Force team before getting rolled by eventual champion Duluth. But I remember coming away from the tournament thinking, "Ok, they were a little better than I thought." I didn't think they were the best team in the country, nor did I even think they were a top 4 or 5 team after watching the two NCAA appearances, but I concluded they were certainly a top 10 team. That's kind of what I think I'll see with Penn St. as the year progresses.

So, basically, three out of four NCHC series every single week?