CarpeRemote

True, I guess it matters what media someone uses. I see that pointed out repeatedly. It’s easy to see that the increased testing is on healthier people, therefore lower death rate. We know with therapeutics we are losing a lower % of the at-risk. But there two sets of stats, the at-risk, and everyone else. Despite better therapeutics a relatively large % of “at-risk” get sick as hell, so they aren’t eating out or going to sporting events, and we shouldn’t reasonably expect differently. For the most part, at-risk folks are retirees with money and time, and the economy be broken without them. It is what it is and it won’t change until a vaccine.

From a decision making standpoint looking backward at deaths doesn’t really effect the math used for decision making. What matters is how many new positives we are getting today vs yesterday. I see your point with flaws in counting a positive twice inflates overall infections. But when this happens, pick any % of double dipping, the rate of transmission still doesn’t change appreciably as long as the error rate stays roughly the same. Modeling with large numbers will count those errors as noise, which it probably is in larger states. (Theoretically, a moderate non recurring double dip in a low population state could skew Rt for a few days but would push it the opposite direction a few days later) Not perfection but they are getting pretty good at considering what is important to interpret and how to do the math. Where we could/will see the “number of tests” skewing Rt data is if we start asking very large groups of asymptomatic people to test in a short period. Such as several universities testing entire student bodies in September.

Too many variables at this point. Lack of kits, slowdown at some labs, most exposed don’t get tested at all because they already know the answer, or asymptomatic people who feel fine get tested anyway etc. It’s an algebraic equation with so many variables they are forced to go off large numbers. Every input is debatable. It’s clearly not perfect. Decision makers watch rate of transmission and hospitalizations in zones. https://rt.live

That’s what you took away from this? It says the virus can exist on droplets under 5 microns. Masks, cloth or N95s reduce incremental exposure. For most people the less you breathe in, the less sick you get. If one interpreted this as ‘cloth masks are useless’ then you would also interpret it as N95s are useless. Not trying to change your mind Because I won’t, but it needed pointed out.

Oxbow, You like the stats. You are probably watching Rt already but here’s the link. Dr Scott Gottlieb (former head of FDA) has consistently been the most reliable source throughout imo. He says Rate of Transmission plus hospitalizations are the two most important stats state and local governments should use to make decisions, rather than actual positives or % positives. He thinks for the most part schools should open, and says the economy should open, but pause, not revert, in hot spots with very high Rt or high hospital usage. Some of the big population states have moved to green or are almost green. The highest red states tend to have lower populations so despite the massive numbers it can be seen as glass half full. https://rt.live

Agree some people have taken immovable positions due to cultural cognition, there is some right/left component amongst hard cores, but the media loves elevating a political fights. I don’t see the media’s version from my own boots-on-the-ground standpoint Some people just think it’s sensible to wear masks, including 6 family members who have never voted for a democrat. I also have 3 family members who’ve never voted for a republican who refuse to wear masks except when required. Then there are those making it political which is a much smaller group than advertised..imho

If a private property owner doesn’t require masks, people who dislike masks should shop there. Anyone that jaws at them are out of line. People wanting an extra level of protection should go elsewhere but shouldn’t catch guff from anyone no matter where they are.

If you are in a store that doesn’t require masks why would you care?

Agree 100%. The moment the SG made the statements it felt like PT Barnum was in charge. The reactions from my friends in the healthcare community were virtual horrified laughs out loud

Hates puppies

Agree with your mask position, but due to your ridiculous lack of civility, respect, and social skills I’ve become a Great White groupie and volunteering at nursing homes.

That’s it?

Boy? More shrill and less credible by the moment

Odd post

Classically polarizing statement. My non-white business associate is almost gleeful about the projected disappearance of white people. I’m socially liberal so I guess he thought it was acceptable to say it out loud. Tell someone you want their racIal demographic to “disappear’”, you create a voting block, then call them racist.

I don’t think that was part of the raised hand questions. He did recently team with Sanders on the “unity platform” which creates a path to citizenship for arguably 11 million illegals which I suppose is also a path to vote. I don’t anything about “path” requirement.

I saw the healthcare hand raise and the same with decriminalize border crossings. Didn’t see one on voting. However I missed some of the debates

Gotcha. Similar handle and just as ornery. Thought you were him or his doppelgänger.

Duke have we met on another board that was focused on a very good football team?

Shouldn’t count non-tested people. Hospitalizations/positive is lower than the official number. But doesn’t change that the count is significantly higher than reported. My daughter was tested C19 positive last week. (fever, respiratory issues for 9 days). She caught it from her husband who got it from his sister while visiting his mom and sister, who got it from sister’s daughter who caught it from her father on his rotation day. Of that grouponly three were tested (the father, his daughter, and my daughter. All are sick but no point for the other 3 to test unless they hospitalized. It’s common for only one family member in the same household to test. Same with a circle of friends.

You live the way you choose. I get that. I assume there’s been times in your life you’ve done something very good that’s helped define you?

Surgeon General and CDC desperate to maintain control over the mask supply lied to everyone. Rather than just say, ‘professionals need 95s, please make your own, they are useful”, the SG tweeted one of the biggest lies and blunders of modern history: “Seriously people—STOP BUYING MASKS“ Then he added the the lie, “They are NOT effective preventing the general public from catching the #coronavirus”, then the epic fail in lie logic, “But if healthcare providers can’t get them to care for sick patients, it puts them and our communities at risk!” Wait what? It gets better though, a week later on Face The Nation he doubled down with, “Masks don’t work” (wait for it, wait for it) “for the general public” Of course the SG and CDC restated policy after the CDC had a steady supply of masks. That tweet and statement changed the world. While China, Korea, Japan, Czech Republic, Slovakia, and others effectively shut down their virus spread with mandatory (homemade or otherwise) masks and then reopened their economies, we sat around and collectively argued about masks. And here we are.

Elizabeth Warren likely gets a seat at the table. If she becomes Treasury Secretary he loses support from big tech, big banks, and on-the-fence owners of 401ks and IRAs.

Goldman analysts estimate masks until a vaccine would change GDP 5% to the good and get people to work. Honestly I don’t care, I have a job and masks are infringing. Low wage service workers and single mothers should have gone to college, not my problem.

No way, my civil liberties are already compromised by stop signs.