Goon Posted March 4, 2007 Share Posted March 4, 2007 Niagara drops from a TUC and the Clarkson comparison flips the Sioux sitting at 5 or 6. But if MSUM drops UND will fall a ways. Playing Tech would have been much better for us, but we just need to take care of MSUM and hope they hang on to #25. A lot can happen with the conference playoffs, I am not all that worried, we are as good as in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochsioux Posted March 4, 2007 Share Posted March 4, 2007 There is still an outside chance at a #1 seed. Right now the Sioux have 19 pwr wins, they probably need at least 21 to get a #1. They are losing five comparisons: MN, Notre Dame, St.Cloud, New Hampshire, and Clarkson. The first three are pretty much lost no matter what, the other two could be flipped. Clarkson/UND: RPI: .5550 / .5525 TUC : .6071 / .5893 Cop: .6111 / .6667 H2H: 0 / 0 Clarkson wins 2-1. The RPI is very close and could easily be flipped in the upcoming weeks. New Hampshire/UND: RPI: .5613 / .5525 TUC: .6000 / .5893 COP: .8571 / .5000 H2H: 0 / 0 New Hampshire wins 3-0. Since COP is out of reach, UND needs to flip both RPI and TUC which would then flip the comparison to UND. The TUC is so close that one UND win or one NH loss could change this. While RPI is a bit apart, it can change quickly. The UND win tonight bumped the RPI from .5482 to .5525, an increase of .0043. The NH loss tonight dropped their RPI from .5660 to .5613, a drop of .0047. So in one night UND gained .0090, another similar change would put their RPI above NH. The biggest problems in overtaking NH in TUC will be MSU. Sweeping MSU next w/e would probably drop them from TUC so the Sioux would lose the 3-0-1 record against them. Not sure if there is any chance of Wisconsin dropping out of TUC if DU were to sweep, that would help UND by removing the 1-3 record vs. Wisconsin. In RPI, the Sioux are clinging to a .0030 bonus because Dartmouth is in the top 15 RPI (15th place, just .0012 ahead of CC). If the Sioux can sweep MSU, then win the WCHA tourney I think they have a chance at a #1, depends on how NH does. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochsioux Posted March 4, 2007 Share Posted March 4, 2007 Upon further review: If MSU can stay as a TUC if the Sioux sweep them (or drop Wisc out), then it is possible to flip the SCSU comparison also. Would probably take UND winning the WCHA tourney and SCSU losing the 3rd place game against a TUC. To flip the Notre Dame comparison, UND needs to win the WCHA tourney and keep MSU as a TUC (or drop Wisc out). Notre Dame would also probably have to lose 2 games in their tourney to TUCs. MN is the one comparison I can't see any way of flipping. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochsioux Posted March 4, 2007 Share Posted March 4, 2007 FWIW, If MSU was not a TUC right now, the Sioux would lose the following comparisons that they currently are winning: BU, BC, UMass. That would drop them to 8th in pwr (tied with Mich, win the tie on RPI). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedFrog Posted March 4, 2007 Share Posted March 4, 2007 Believe it or not, I understand all of what you said.....and thank you for all the work put into working up these scenarios. Like has said thousands of times before me, let's take care of our business and let the rest of the pieces fall where they may. Thanx again for all the work! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fargosioux Posted March 4, 2007 Share Posted March 4, 2007 Let's say for argument's sake, that the Sioux finish at #5 in the PWR, with St. Cloud finishing #4. Let's also say that the Sioux beat St. Cloud again in the Final Five. Couldn't the committee give the Sioux the #1 seed based on the fact that St. Cloud hadn't beaten UND in five tries? Didn't the same thing happen between CC & Denver a few years ago? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dean Posted March 4, 2007 Share Posted March 4, 2007 Let's say for argument's sake, that the Sioux finish at #5 in the PWR, with St. Cloud finishing #4. Let's also say that the Sioux beat St. Cloud again in the Final Five. Couldn't the committee give the Sioux the #1 seed based on the fact that St. Cloud hadn't beaten UND in five tries? Didn't the same thing happen between CC & Denver a few years ago? No. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southpaw Posted March 4, 2007 Share Posted March 4, 2007 is this one of those situations where the games against msum become exempt because if they lose they get dropped out of a TUC? i know there's some rule that prevents your team from getting hurt by beating lower ranked teams in conference playoffs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diggler Posted March 4, 2007 Share Posted March 4, 2007 is this one of those situations where the games against msum become exempt because if they lose they get dropped out of a TUC? i know there's some rule that prevents your team from getting hurt by beating lower ranked teams in conference playoffs. I think so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Whistler Posted March 4, 2007 Share Posted March 4, 2007 I don't see the huge advantage of becoming a #1 in the regionals (aside from the last change). You have to beat everyone there to advance. On an unrelated note, how many times have we been matched up with Mankato in the first round of the WCHA playoffs. Heck we were playing them before Mankato was officially in the WCHA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siouxguyinstpaul Posted March 4, 2007 Share Posted March 4, 2007 Winning the final 5 would seat us as #1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siouxguyinstpaul Posted March 4, 2007 Share Posted March 4, 2007 I don't see the huge advantage of becoming a #1 in the regionals (aside from the last change). You have to beat everyone there to advance. On an unrelated note, how many times have we been matched up with Mankato in the first round of the WCHA playoffs. Heck we were playing them before Mankato was officially in the WCHA. perhaps your right - #1 didn't help last year at the Ralph. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siouxnami Posted March 4, 2007 Author Share Posted March 4, 2007 is this one of those situations where the games against msum become exempt because if they lose they get dropped out of a TUC? i know there's some rule that prevents your team from getting hurt by beating lower ranked teams in conference playoffs. No, the rule is that our RPI can be hurt, the rule does not address what happens to MSU-Ms TUC status. Jim, do you have the ability to project the approximate effect of a Sioux sweep on MSU-Ms RPI? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siouxnami Posted March 4, 2007 Author Share Posted March 4, 2007 perhaps your right - #1 didn't help last year at the Ralph. All jokes about Minnesota aside, being a #1 gives you a MUCH easier game and essentially puts you into the quarters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochsioux Posted March 4, 2007 Share Posted March 4, 2007 In looking at the current PWR, UND is #5 before the bonus and #6 after the bonus. Why ? After all, UND is one of the few teams that get a RPI bonus bump due to Dartmouth being #15 in RPI. Well, the bonus causes the Clarkson comparison to be flipped back to Clarkson due to Niagara beating St. Lawrence. St. Lawrence is a top 15 RPI team so this gives Niagara an estimated .0030 RPI bonus which moves them from 26th in RPI to 25th. That makes Niagara a TUC. Clarkson has a win against Niagara so this adds to their TUC record which then allows them to win the TUC category against UND. So, UND was winning the PWR comparison 2-1, by changing the TUC now Clarkson wins 2-1. PWR is a very poor method of selecting teams for the tourney. It can create situations where it might be better to lose a game so the team you are playing does not fall out of the TUC (the exact situation UND is in this year). Wisconsin faced this a few years ago when play AA in the first round. Any system that can create a situation where it is better to lose needs to be scrapped. KRACH is a much better method. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siouxnami Posted March 4, 2007 Author Share Posted March 4, 2007 In looking at the current PWR, UND is #5 before the bonus and #6 after the bonus. Why ? After all, UND is one of the few teams that get a RPI bonus bump due to Dartmouth being #15 in RPI. Well, the bonus causes the Clarkson comparison to be flipped back to Clarkson due to Niagara beating St. Lawrence. St. Lawrence is a top 15 RPI team so this gives Niagara an estimated .0030 RPI bonus which moves them from 26th in RPI to 25th. That makes Niagara a TUC. Clarkson has a win against Niagara so this adds to their TUC record which then allows them to win the TUC category against UND. So, UND was winning the PWR comparison 2-1, by changing the TUC now Clarkson wins 2-1. PWR is a very poor method of selecting teams for the tourney. It can create situations where it might be better to lose a game so the team you are playing does not fall out of the TUC (the exact situation UND is in this year). Wisconsin faced this a few years ago when play AA in the first round. Any system that can create a situation where it is better to lose needs to be scrapped. KRACH is a much better method. Preaching to the choir. KRACH is the best mothod, but you can bet that the NCAA doesn't want 6 or 7 WCHA teams in the 16 some years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Whistler Posted March 5, 2007 Share Posted March 5, 2007 Preaching to the choir. KRACH is the best mothod, but you can bet that the NCAA doesn't want 6 or 7 WCHA teams in the 16 some years. That just wouldn't be fair to have the best teams compete for the title. (I am in favor of the auto bids for even the fringe conferences) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goon Posted March 5, 2007 Share Posted March 5, 2007 All jokes about Minnesota aside, being a #1 gives you a MUCH easier game and essentially puts you into the quarters. Unless you get Holy Crossed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeftyZL Posted March 5, 2007 Share Posted March 5, 2007 Maybe it's just me, but I just don't see a way the Sioux can get to a #1 seed, regardless of whether they win the Final 5 or not. UND(#6 seed after tonight with bonus) is winning 18 comparisons, Clarkson(#5 seed after tonight with bonus) is winning 20, St. Cloud(#4 seed after tonight with bonus) is winning 21. Assuming we can flip the Clarkson and Miami(OH) comparisons in our favor, which I believe we can since we only trail each of them by .0045 in the TUC category, that only gets us up to 20 comparisons, still 1 comparison short for catching St. Cloud. Assuming we can play St. Cloud in the Final 5(assuming we get there), we would have to beat them just to even our comparison. Does anyone know what they do to split 2 teams if they are tied in the comparisons?(Head-To-Head?) Because right now St. Cloud leads our comparison 3-2. Man, I was just thinking how important that 2 goal lead we gave up on Friday looks like it might come back to keeping us from a potential #1 seed, assuming all other things fall into place. If we had won the Friday night game, and beat them again in the Final 5, we would win the St. Cloud comparison 5-4. End Blabber. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goon Posted March 5, 2007 Share Posted March 5, 2007 Maybe it's just me, but I just don't see a way the Sioux can get to a #1 seed, regardless of whether they win the Final 5 or not. UND(#6 seed after tonight with bonus) is winning 18 comparisons, Clarkson(#5 seed after tonight with bonus) is winning 20, St. Cloud(#4 seed after tonight with bonus) is winning 21. Assuming we can flip the Clarkson and Miami(OH) comparisons in our favor, which I believe we can since we only trail each of them by .0045 in the TUC category, that only gets us up to 20 comparisons, still 1 comparison short for catching St. Cloud. Assuming we can play St. Cloud in the Final 5(assuming we get there), we would have to beat them just to even our comparison. Does anyone know what they do to split 2 teams if they are tied in the comparisons?(Head-To-Head?) Because right now St. Cloud leads our comparison 3-2. Man, I was just thinking how important that 2 goal lead we gave up on Friday looks like it might come back to keeping us from a potential #1 seed, assuming all other things fall into place. If we had won the Friday night game, and beat them again in the Final 5, we would win the St. Cloud comparison 5-4. End Blabber. I am glad they let the smart people figure this out, I just got a head ache reading that. I think that's why I was a sociology and CJ major in college. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZSIOUX Posted March 5, 2007 Share Posted March 5, 2007 i dont care of we are a 1 or 2 seed or 3. we are playing some of the best in the best college in the nation and there isnt a team that wants to play the sioux right now. i say we sweep msu and make the final 5 title game and end up with 2 seed and then its really on when we hit the NC$$'s Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochsioux Posted March 5, 2007 Share Posted March 5, 2007 Maybe it's just me, but I just don't see a way the Sioux can get to a #1 seed, regardless of whether they win the Final 5 or not. UND(#6 seed after tonight with bonus) is winning 18 comparisons, Clarkson(#5 seed after tonight with bonus) is winning 20, St. Cloud(#4 seed after tonight with bonus) is winning 21. Assuming we can flip the Clarkson and Miami(OH) comparisons in our favor, which I believe we can since we only trail each of them by .0045 in the TUC category, that only gets us up to 20 comparisons, still 1 comparison short for catching St. Cloud. Assuming we can play St. Cloud in the Final 5(assuming we get there), we would have to beat them just to even our comparison. Does anyone know what they do to split 2 teams if they are tied in the comparisons?(Head-To-Head?) Because right now St. Cloud leads our comparison 3-2. Man, I was just thinking how important that 2 goal lead we gave up on Friday looks like it might come back to keeping us from a potential #1 seed, assuming all other things fall into place. If we had won the Friday night game, and beat them again in the Final 5, we would win the St. Cloud comparison 5-4. End Blabber. http://siouxsports.com/forums/index.php?sh...=7905&st=51# http://siouxsports.com/forums/index.php?sh...=7905&st=52# Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stickboy1956 Posted March 5, 2007 Share Posted March 5, 2007 I know the Pairwise rankings will change in the next 2 weeks prior to the tournament, but here's an interesting situation for the NCAA. If you add the bonus, BU/BC/Maine are currently ranked 8/9/10, which could make it difficult to avoid a Hockey East matchup in round 1, which the committee always tries to avoid. It gets even more complicated because Miami/Michigan and UND/Denver bookend the group in the middle, and they would have to avoid those matchups as well. I will be interested to see what Jason Moy at USCHO comes up with for this weeks bracketology. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siouxnami Posted March 5, 2007 Author Share Posted March 5, 2007 I know the Pairwise rankings will change in the next 2 weeks prior to the tournament, but here's an interesting situation for the NCAA. If you add the bonus, BU/BC/Maine are currently ranked 8/9/10, which could make it difficult to avoid a Hockey East matchup in round 1, which the committee always tries to avoid. It gets even more complicated because Miami/Michigan and UND/Denver bookend the group in the middle, and they would have to avoid those matchups as well. I will be interested to see what Jason Moy at USCHO comes up with for this weeks bracketology. Great point. We may enter a situation where the matchups are forced regardless banding. In addition, Denver will be in Denver and 99% Michigan will be in Grand Rapids. That tells me that HE is coming West and greatly increases the chances of UND going East. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stickboy1956 Posted March 5, 2007 Share Posted March 5, 2007 Great point. We may enter a situation where the matchups are forced regardless banding. In addition, Denver will be in Denver and 99% Michigan will be in Grand Rapids. That tells me that HE is coming West and greatly increases the chances of UND going East. Maybe they would do this: BU/Den, Miami/Maine, BC/Mich, which would leave us to play StL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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