Comparing the Bubble Classes

[Kermit]

I don't have the time now, but if anyone is interested in who played what position in which games, check the boxscores here:

http://www.collegehockeystats.net/0405/schedules/ndkm

FWIW, my recollection is that Fuher only played forward for one game early in the year (Nov 5 vs CC)..

[CoteauRinkRat]

I found Bina listed as RW in the following games:

Fri/Sat vs. Canisius

Sat at CC

Fri/Sat vs. Denver

Sat/Sun vs Wisconsin

Fri at St. Cloud

I guess I didn't realize he played forward that much down the stretch.

[Sioux_Hab-it]

I don't have the time now, but if anyone is interested in who played what position in which games, check the boxscores here:

http://www.collegehockeystats.net/0405/schedules/ndkm

FWIW, my recollection is that Fuher only played forward for one game early in the year (Nov 5 vs CC)..

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Although the boxscore has him listed as a Dman for one of the Colorado Srings games and RW in the other, I recall Bina getting played in a forward in both because I remember being impressed by his forechecking effort.

[PCM]

According to collegehockeystats.net, Bina played in 32 games, 23 as a defenseman and 9 as a forward. The games in which he's listed as a forward are:

12/17/04 Canisius

12/18/04 Canisius

1/15/05 CC

2/4/05 Denver

2/5/05 Denver

2/26/05 Wisconsin

2/27/05 Wisconsin

3/4/05 SCSU

3/18/05 Denver

I'd forgotten about him playing forward against Canisius and at CC. At any rate, the Sioux had played 20 of their 36 regular season games before Bina played wing. Six of his starts at forward were during the last 12 games of UND's 45-game season.

Edited May 26, 2005 by PCM

[CoteauRinkRat]

According to collegehockeystats.net, Bina played in 32 games, 23 as a defenseman and 9 as a forward. The games in which he's listed as a forward are:

12/17/04 Canisius

12/18/04 Canisius

1/15/05 CC

2/4/05 Denver

2/5/05 Denver

2/26/05 Wisconsin

2/27/05 Wisconsin

3/4/05 SCSU

3/8/05 Denver

I'd forgotten about him playing forward against Canisius and at CC. At any rate, the Sioux had played 20 of their 36 regular season games before Bina played wing. Six of his starts at forward were during the last 12 games of UND's 45-game season.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I forgot the Denver game.

Since you want to correct me with your post, I'll correct you.

The Denver game was 3/18/05

[sauce]

(Was going to call the big classes bulges, but I didn't want to title a thread: comparing the bulges.)

Kermit had this insightful post in the Murray thread:

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The Sioux were a decent team in 2001-2, and they weren't far from being a very good team. Several of the freshmen had very good years. Bochenski and Schneider were outstanding. Schneider, Jones, and Fuher ranked 2,3, and 4 on the team among d-men in plus/minus. The team had some excellent goal scorers (Bayda, Skarperud, Bochenski), but lacked a great playmaking center. The biggest problem was in goal where Andy Kollar had a very disappointing year. I also thought that the senior defensemen (Mazurak and Schneekloth) regressed that year.

The next group of incoming freshmen has at least as much talent, but much less experience than the 01-02 group. Chris Fournier played FOUR years in the USHL, Brian Canady 3, Andy Schneider 2+, Nick Fuher 2, James Massen 2, etc. Maybe that explains why some of these guys didn't improve as much AFTER coming to UND.

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This got me thinking about taking a closer look at the two classes.  Here are comparisons of the players' ages (The age shown is the player's age on September 1st of the year they entered school.):

Forwards:

21.1 Canady

20.5 Faul

19.6 Connelly

19.6 Massen

19.6 McMahon

19.4 Bochenski

19.4 Fournier

19.9 AVERAGE

20.5 Martens

20.1 Duncan

19.6 Miller

19.2 Kozek

18.8 Watkins

18.7 Oshie

17.3 Toews

19.2 AVERAGE

The difference in the average age works out to about 8.5 months, which is pretty significant.  A more telling observation is that four players in the 2005 class would be the youngest player in the 2001 class.

Defense:

20.5 Fuher

20.1 Schneider

18.1 Jones

19.5 AVERAGE

20.7 Alexander

18.6 Jones

18.4 Lee

18.3 Chorney

19.0 AVERAGE

Although the difference in the average is only six months, it's pretty clear that the 2001 class had two seasoned players and one relative pup, while the 2005 class has three pups and one older player.

Overall, I agree that the 2005 class has perhaps greater potential than the 2001 class, but it might not be realized in the first year, due to the relative youth and inexperience of the 2005 players.

As to the quality of the team the classes are moving into,  Kermit nailed the comparison.  In 2001-02 both Bayda and Skarperud finished in the top five in WCHA scoring.  In addition, very solid and dependable forwards like Lundbohm, Notermann and Spiewak were present.  The current returning group (knock on wood) of Zajac, Stafford, Spirko, Prpich, Porter and Fabian compares favorably, but it's close.

On defense, Schneekloth, Mazurak, Hale and Leinweber returned.  The preseason view was that this was a solid base to work in three newcomers.  It didn't work out that way, as Hale's health issues and Schneekloth's and Mazurak's spotty seasons forced a baptism by fire for the freshmen.  As trying as that was, the returning group in 2005 is even more questionable.  (I personally expect the NHL to fix its issues, with Greene pursuing his career, and Bina to be unavailable this year.)  That would mean the returning players would be Smaby (a rock), Radke (not far from a freshman himself) and Marvin and Foyt (more forwards now than defensemen).  This time around, we know the kids will be required to play significant roles.  Unfortunately, they'll all be just 18, rather than 20 as Schneider and Fuher were.  Fortunately, they might ultimately be more talented overall.

The big difference, as Kermit noted, is that UND has two very capable goaltenders for 2005, which should help alleviate the main problem with the team in 2001-02.

The last point of comparison for me is that the league overall seems much tougher in 2005 than 2001.  CC, Denver, MN and Wisconsin all look very tough, with all the lower tier teams (save perhaps SCSU) seemingly able to beat anyone on any weekend as well.

The coaching staff has a big, big job ahead of it next year.  It will be frustrating at times, but also fun to watch the potential.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think that's a really good assessment. Hopefully Bina can make it back. I knew that kid growing up and let me tell you something - if there is anyone I know who can fight back from something like this, its Robbie!

One thing to add is that its all guessing at this point. I mean going into that 2001 season, who'd have thought Kollar would have a bad year. He was so solid in years past, guess you just never can tell. Your final statement sums it up well:

The coaching staff has a big, big job ahead of it next year. It will be frustrating at times, but also fun to watch the potential.

I'm glad they're scooping these guys up while they're young; can't wait till Marto arrives

[sagard]

I love the analysis. I'd expect if you were to take the five year gap ending with the recruitment of '01-'02 freshmen group comparing to all the classes coming into the you would see that 8.5 month gap widen.

The USHL lowering it's age limits will decrease the entire average age of the entire WCHA, but UNDs reduction really began once the puck dropped in the new rink.

[OETKB]

IMO, the difference between this freshman class and 2001's is the offensive talent. Bochenski was a blue-chipper, but the rest of that class were, at best, blue-collar type college players (with the exception of Fornier, who had no work ethic).

Specifically, Toews, Kozek & Duncan should be able to jump right into the college ranks without too many problems. Like Spirko, they will likely not play "like freshmen."

Expect this team to be very exciting, with high scoring games both ways. Lots of mistakes, but lots of highlights as well.

[dagies]

OETKB I hope you are right. Overall I agree with your statement that this year's incoming class should be considered more offensively talented than 2001.

But I think the trio of Bochenski, Fournier and Massen all should have been considered on par with most of the recruits coming in this year. However, we know the story on Fournier and after a promising start how things went with Massen.

While there is more upside to this incoming group, I guess it remains to be seen how it will play out. Maybe I'm just more cautious than you, but I'm holding my breath that all these players will jump right in. Toews is very young. Duncan is small. Can he handle the physical play in the the WCHA? Some observers I read on the BCHL board felt he physical play could take him off his game.

I was cautious about Zajac last year and he definitely outperformed my expectations. So hopefully we'll see some of the same from this bunch too.

[jk]

Bochenski was a blue-chipper, but the rest of that class were, at best, blue-collar type college players (with the exception of Fornier, who had no work ethic).

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

This is the view today, looking back at their careers. I think people forget how much potential that class seemingly had four years ago, when we were looking forward to their careers. Bochenski, Fournier and Massen were gigantic scorers in the USHL, Canady and Connelly were point-per-game guys, and McMahon's name was listed second on Heisenberg's BCHL list. (I know Hesienberg doesn't really "rank" players, but when you see his name listed near the top you can't help but generate expectations.) Faul was known to have a wicked one-timer.

The current class also carries (or is burdened by) robust expectations, and perhaps the best argument for them having better potential is that they are younger, with more development ahead of them. I'm excited for the upcoming season; it'll be fun to see some new players, getting to know them not by name or number but by skating style and posture.

But you have to remember that this is the time of the year when players have no faults. In our minds, the returners have all taken a step forward, and the new guys are at least as advertised. Kozek's a sniper, Watkins is a burner, Duncan's the next Hoogie, Toews is one of the best '88s in all of North America, Martens has some of the best hands in the BCHL, Miller was Green Bay's best natural goal scorer, and Oshie is the real deal. When September rolls around, the dreams fade, blemishes appear before us, and everyone needs to get to work. As with every year, some guys I expect to shine will disappoint, and some guys will emerge from the shadows to contribute.

[THETRIOUXPER]

Intresting observations, like everyone else I can't wait until this fall to see how this all shakes out. Most of us never see any of these guys until they get on campus, so it is difficult to form an opinion of what type of roll they may fill.

[dagies]

....Most of us never see any of these guys until they get on campus, so it is difficult to form an opinion of what type of roll they may fill.

Documented history would dispute this claim.

[THETRIOUXPER]

You're right Dagies, I should have said with the exception of certain recruits to be more specific. However I was speaking in general terms, and I have never myself seen the likes of Watkins, Kozek, Duncan, Miller, or Martens, ect. Lee I have seen a handful of times, and Oshie being the exception to the rule for me as I have watched him many times over the last three years. Sorry for the confusion folks.

[Sioux_Hab-it]

I still think the incoming class has way more talent and potential than any previous class and they will have the added benefit of solid goaltending behind them. I can't wait to see them play.

[dagies]

You're right Dagies, I should have said with the exception of certain recruits to be more specific.