Does a dominated goal differential lead to championships?

[bigskyvikes]

If any of you numbers guys out there would be interested, maybe Jim?

 

I thought this was fun to read, how about a college version?

http://m.thn.com/blog/which-teams-have-best-capitalized-on-their-expected-stanley-cup-opportunities/

Not sure if I put this in the right place and I could not find another topic about it.

Edited August 30, 2015 by bigskyvikes

[Big A HG]

I would say it's much harder to quantify college's numbers in the last ten years (or ever really).  In the NHL, the best-of-seven game series' make a huge difference in terms of identifying the truly better team, unlike in the NCAA.  Win four games, on usually neutral ice, against teams you likely haven't played against all year, and you win an NCAA Championship.  In the regular season, having a sample size cut in half, against only a fraction of all the opponents across the country is going to skew the numbers greatly.  Throw in the tournament parity, and I'd guess you'd have an interesting mix of results.

 

[bigskyvikes]

I would say it's much harder to quantify college's numbers in the last ten years (or ever really).  In the NHL, the best-of-seven game series' make a huge difference in terms of identifying the truly better team, unlike in the NCAA.  Win four games, on usually neutral ice, against teams you likely haven't played against all year, and you win an NCAA Championship.  In the regular season, having a sample size cut in half, against only a fraction of all the opponents across the country is going to skew the numbers greatly.  Throw in the tournament parity, and I'd guess you'd have an interesting mix of results.

 

Makes sense, probably why ive never seen it done for college hockey....thanks.

[Goon]

I would say it's much harder to quantify college's numbers in the last ten years (or ever really).  In the NHL, the best-of-seven game series' make a huge difference in terms of identifying the truly better team, unlike in the NCAA.  Win four games, on usually neutral ice, against teams you likely haven't played against all year, and you win an NCAA Championship.  In the regular season, having a sample size cut in half, against only a fraction of all the opponents across the country is going to skew the numbers greatly.  Throw in the tournament parity, and I'd guess you'd have an interesting mix of results.

 

A stats expert once told me that college hockey doesn't have enough games in a season to really do an accurate Corsi numbers break down. It sounded good to me. 

Edited August 30, 2015 by Goon

[farce poobah]

I have no numbers to back this up, but i would expect a higher correlation of Cups / Titles to Goals Allowed.

Defense wins championships.

[bigskyvikes]

I have no numbers to back this up, but i would expect a higher correlation of Cups / Titles to Goals Allowed.

Defense wins championships.

It seems like a hot goalie wins it at the end (Stahlock-UMD)  A maybe struggling goalie does not. ???? But the struggling goalie had great numbers all season, how would that mess up the numbers? Maybe why the better team doesn't always win? 2-3 would be cool to see what the change would be in who wins the titles...

[GreenWing]

It seems like a hot goalie wins it at the end (Stahlock-UMD)  A maybe struggling goalie does not. ???? But the struggling goalie had great numbers all season, how would that mess up the numbers? Maybe why the better team doesn't always win? 2-3 would be cool to see what the change would be in who wins the titles...

Kenny Reiter was their goalie during their title year. If I remember right, he was a real decent goalie but played GREAT when playoff time came. 

[bigskyvikes]

Kenny Reiter was their goalie during their title year. If I remember right, he was a real decent goalie but played GREAT when playoff time came. 

Thanks...for some reason I thought UMD's championship year was with Stalock, my bad...