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rochsioux, I have spent some time over the last month or so with UND's PWR comparisons, and your post is as complete and accurate a picture of UND's PWR status as I could hope to read. Great job. Just a few things I thought about as I read it: - MSUM's unadjusted RPI is now .4992. I think if they go 0-2 against CC in the first round, it will fall to around .4968. MSUM has one quality win each on the road and at home (both against UNO), so if they retain those (UNO is 9th in RPI and needs to stay in the top 15), and if the bonus is in fact in the neighborhood of 3,2,1, then MSUM has a good chance of staying above .5000 even if they get swept. It's obviously very close though. - UNH is now 16th in RPI, but they have a sizable gap to get to 15th. We should have been cheering for UNH all year long, but now they really need our help. Having them beat BC would be good in three ways: 1) UNH's RPI would improve more, helping UND get quality wins, 2) BC's RPI would decline, helping the UND/BC comparison, 3) BC losing is always a good thing.

I was only able to listen to some of the games, and I didn't watch them, so I was curious about the third period meltdown. Checking the boxscore, these were the Sioux players on the ice for the four third-period goals that preceded the empty-netter. 4,6,19,21 -- 2 freshmen 6,15,19,27 -- 1 freshman 6,19,21,24,26 -- 1 freshman 6,19,24,27 -- 1 freshman I was trying to figure out whether the young guys cracked under the pressure, and was surprised to see that it was mostly upperclassmen on the ice. Jones and Prpich, two pretty emotional guys, were probably pretty frosted after being out for all four goals. Not really trying to finger-point. Just checking the facts. I'm sure the guys will be motivated to get it going this weekend.

The last team to sweep MTU was UND, on December 2-3. They have pulled points out of every WCHA series since then. So it's no layup next weekend.

Just like with the CC weekend, the PWR effect of a Friday win can be undone by a Saturday loss. In addition, the RPI will be at risk next weekend against MTU. A win or tie tomorrow night would be very helpful to the cause.

Everyone has their own opinions, but I have to admit to being fatigued by all the Paukovich talk. I love the score update threads, but it has gotten old to read so many comments about him. But that's just me. With Kozek scoring, that's another freshman who carries the Manninonyte in his pocket.

Saying nothing about the outcome of this one, but it's interesting that Toews has two, Oshie and Duncan one each. That's four guys who know nothing of Mannino's past ownership of Sioux shooters. Nice to see them step up and put some goals in.

THETRIOUXPER, At the risk of taking the thread off-course (that NEVER happens here), I assume you see some Section 8 hockey. Have you seen enough of Forney to have an opinion on whether he can contribute next year? He hasn't had the blowout season Oshie had last year, but he's had a pretty dominant year anyway. He's projected to be drafted around the same area, perhaps a little higher, although his draft position will be impacted by his larger size. Just curious. Thanks.

I'm sorry I don't know, but I've been wondering it as well. He played on February 1, then missed Feb. 3, 4 and 10. He played again on Feb. 11, and missed Feb. 17. He played again tonight, and registered his first goal of the year. Congratulations there. If he's in-and-out of the lineup because he's failing to hold down a regular spot, that would be bad news. There must be someone who keeps tabs on either him or the USHL who could provide some information.

Here's a summary of some of the names that have been brought up here or have some geographic or family connection to the program. UND probably doesn't have much interest in some of the kids, and the reverse is also probably true. Nothing new here; just a summary. Forwards: Drew Fisher, 2-6-87, USHL Jordan Willert, 11-6-87, USHL Aaron Marvin, 5-27-88, Warroad HS Mario Lamoureaux, 6-18-88, USHL Taylor Matson, 9-16-88, AHA HS Kelly Zajac, -88, Winnipeg Midgets Jason Gregoire, 2-24-89, MJHL Ben Winnett, 4-3-89, BCHL Lucas Bloodoff, 5-5-89, BCHL Colin Wilson, 10-20-89, USNDP Jordy Murray, 1-8-90, SSM Kelsey Tessier, 1-16-90, Colorado Midgets David Toews, 6-7-90, Colorado Midgets Defense: Kyle Hardwick, 10-24-86, USHL Derrick Lapoint, 5-13-88, WI HS Ben Blood, 3-15-89, SSM Erick Galt, ND HS Goal: Brad Theissen, 3-19-86, BCHL Alex Kangas, 5-28-87, USHL Beau Christian, Illinois Midgets

I was at that game too and I remember it because it was Parise's debut game, as Brandt was serving his one-game suspension. Jordy stopped a 2-on-0 break in the closing seconds of the second period, and I said to my dad: Brandt's suspension might end up costing him more than one game.

If you want to worry about things like motivation and momentum and recent results, this series should be close and perhaps end in a split. - UMD finally broke a long losing streak by beating a good Wisconsin team, giving UMD a shot of confidence. - UMD has been a better road team. - UND hasn't been a good home team. On the other hand, UND is just flat-out a more talented team, and has plenty of motivation to perform well. Both teams are coming off their "bye" weeks, but for UND this might be even more significant, as it is the first weekend off since the WJC. Chorney, Lee, Oshie and Toews seem to have adjusted pretty well to the beating they took in Vancouver, but perhaps this is an opportunity for them to really get their legs back for the stretch run. I expect UND to play well, with positive results following.

CVCL, Thanks for the great post. My memories of the 1987 Final Four are more hockey memories. But my memories of the 2005 Frozen Four are very much of the UND hockey community. I basically don't have the stamina to wade through the threads here on REA atmosphere, but I can just say that the support from the UND fans at Columbus was more robust than at either the old or new REA, and dwarfed that of the other participants in Columbus. It was a great experience.

One big regret I have is not seeing the 1979-82 teams. Based on what I've heard, and the numbers I've seen, I'm thinking the names Maxwell, Taylor, Sykes, Murray and Smail would figure prominently in a thread like this if that era was seen by more people. Best chemistry: Hrkac/Joyce. Parise and Bochenski are probably better players and will have better NHL careers, but I was always left with the feeling that the whole was not any greater than the sum of the parts. The 1987 bunch was just the opposite - those guys were just magic together. The agitators: There's a long line of agitators, and probably rightfully so Archie and Prpich get most of the attention, but there were some other gritty players in between. Thankfully someone has mentioned Scott Dub - not the most agile skater, but good top-end speed and a genuine pain on the ice. Notermann was another gritty player. Best NCAA period: 1987 first period against MSU, 3-0 Sioux before MSU got its first shot on goal with about 3 minutes left in the period. The concourse at Joe Louis arena was filled with thousands of very quiet Spartans between periods. The 1997 second period against BU is a close runner up.

I'll have a lot more to add later, but there has not been nearly enough Tony Hrkac here. There have been some real nice players in the WCHA in this last ten year run for the Sioux, but no one, and it's not even close here, has dominated on the ice the way Hrkac did in his sophomore year.

I agree that it would be helpful to have the defensemen scoring more. I think a big reason it isn't happening is the old youth angle. The Sicatoka has posted a theory on a defenseman's career progression (which I don't remember well) that goes something like this: First year: Acclimate to the speed of the game; basically just get comfortable and survive. Second year: Control the defensive zone. Third year: Gain offensive confidence. Fourth year: Dominate all over the ice. Smaby has added some confidence with the puck, but, let's face it, that's not where his focus should be. He should be serving healthy portions of punishment, and he's doing a great job of that. As smooth as some of the young guys are, they're still adjusting (and I include Radke in this group). They might spend the rest of the year adjusting, and it might mean the team won't be going very far this Spring. And while that would be disappointing, it shouldn't come as a gigantic surprise. One last thing is that the team's scoring has been near the top of the league for most of the year, so they must be doing something right. OK, the real last thing is that Bina's absence is really felt here.

I got in around the start of the third period, and like dagies, I read the thread before turning on the radio. It's an old habit that goes back to the days when the score update threads on USCHO ruled. I was terrified to listen to the third period and jinx the whole affair. Fortunately it worked out fine. As good as Phil is, it looks like maybe we're riding Parise the rest of the way. Good win for the boys against a team that you know is desperate for a win -- and they'll be even more desperate tomorrow night.

Respectfully disagree. There are plenty of times the radio guys think someone got away with one that wasn't called, on either team, or where they think it was a weak call, again on either team. Of course TH is a homer, but I feel like I get a good sense of the game listening to his call, including whether the Sioux played poorly. Speaking of which, this is one lousy-sounding PP.

Hockey talk? You know things are down here when no one's talking about the game on game day. After letting this series sink in all week long, I think UND will play well in both games and split. (I realize a split isn't enough to really help the national picture.) A lot of guys are due to score a goal, and I think we'll see a few scored this weekend. I'm thinking 4-3 type games more than 1-0. CC likes to move and attack, and that at least opens up opportunities. There has hardly been any traffic on the CC board this week as well. A summary of their thoughts is as follows: 1. Maybe it's time for Owens to move on. 2. The defense is small. 3. Confidence is very low. 4. They really miss Stuart and Petiot on defense. Of course we have most of that on this board too, if you just change a few of the names. Seeing people question Owens is really hilarious, as he has done a fantastic job keeping the program near the top, nationally and in the league.

That's a great chart, thanks for posting it. You have it pretty well nailed. A few things I could add are that Harvard could play Northeastern in the Beanpot. If NE pulled off the monumental upset, that comparison would flip. Also, the Providence comparison needs RPI, which could happen as Providence has some of the lesser HE teams on its schedule, so its RPI will likely decline. UND will also need Providence to lose once to UNH to flip the COP. These are such trivial little things, though, compared to the need for UND to just win games, especially in the state of Colorado.

I was listening to KFAN yesterday on my drive home, and Chad was talking about Olowakandi's one bucket for the Celtics at the Target Center. One of the guys asked, "Did he pull a Kessel?" So it's worked its way into sports slang.

Realistically, anything more than a split seems like a fantasy at this point. But there's no "realism" requirement for posting here, so I can entertain the possiblitity of better than that. Here's why it's possible. First, the Sioux are not playing poorly now, and in fact are playing pretty well. Since they stunk up the joint against MN on Friday, they: 1. Beat the Gophers, handing them their only loss in the last two months. 2. Outclassed MSUM. 3. Played OK Friday and well Saturday against SCSU. I'm not delusional enough to think they accomplished anything by playing "well," but I heard numerous reports that they showed up and played well enough to win. Second, UND has demostrated the ability to play a good road game -- check closely, goaltend well, convert your opportunities. It's what they did to MN on Saturday, and what SCSU did last weekend. While noting last weekend's finishing issues, I also think UND has a better chance than most to finish its chances, as there are a full handful of guys who are deadly with the puck. And there will be chances this weekend, as CC is not the tight-checking team SCSU is. Third, CC owes UND some bounces from last year. And the Sioux have a few bounces coming from last weekend as well. ------------------------ You could easily present a compelling argument for a CC sweep (it would start with "swept at home by SCSU"), but I'm not in the mood.

So what is the right PP mix right now? Earlier this year, when it seemed like the Sioux PP had a chance to be as good as we've seen in many years, it was Zajac, Stafford, Toews with Lee and Spirko at the points. Now that Lee's effectiveness seems to have declined, do you simply replace him with Chorney? But that would keep Oshie off the top unit, which doesn't make much sense. In fact, with five elite offensive talents at forward -- Zajac, Stafford, Spirko, Toews and Oshie -- how do you keep any of them off the first unit? Zajac's probably the team's best forward, Stafford the top scorer, Spirko perfect for the PP with great hands and a good shot, Toews just the passage of time (and not much of it) away from being the team's best offensive player, and Oshie Mr. Everything. But the risk in going with five forwards seems too large to me. On a related note, this seems like the second consecutive year Lee has returned from the WJC not the same player he was when he left. Last year (not my observations, but my recollections from other reports), his game had changed, and he took a lot more penalties after his return. This year, whether it's physical or mental fatigue, or a confidence issue, he doesn't seem as effective as he had been in the first half of the year. His ability to play at the Division 1 level right out of the gate last Fall was a huge boost to the team, and a big surprise to me, but they need a return to form by Lee to go on the run they now need.

To Hakstol's credit, he has not used the "opposing goalie, puck luck" excuse much this year. When the team has played poorly, he has been quick to note his displeasure in the postgame interview. So on the rare occasion when he says, "the team played well, but the puck just wouldn't go in," I'll believe him. The series at CC last year was very similar, with the team easily playing well enough to earn points, but not getting them. Hakstol has also rarely used the team's youth as an excuse. I have used it here, because it's true. If you had six first-rounders on the team, and they were all 22 years old, would they dominate? Yes. If they were age 15, would they dominate? No, they'd get killed. So what about at ages 17-19? They'd be growing and learning rapidly, but not ready to dominate. And that's what we have. It doesn't have to be anyone's "fault," sometimes it just is what it is. All you can ask is that they keep playing the game the right way, to the best of their abilities, and hope the results follow. And any comparison's to Blais' teams can't just use a selective sample. What about 01-02? How about fading in 02-03? It wasn't always fantastic in the past.

Just a quick glance at the PWR comparisons makes it seem like the Sioux are getting killed on their TUC record. They have a terrible record against good teams, so they're losing comparisons to teams which have a much lower RPI. UND is 11th in the RPI, but 18th in the PWR. This means they really need to do well on their two Colorado trips. So much can change in the PWR in one weekend, let alone in five, so it's not worth putting too much effort into it right now.

There is no doubt this weekend makes things very tough the rest of the way. However, if they came to play, I can't get down on them too much. Hockey is a funny game, and sometimes you just have to wait for the effort to pay off. There are two very tough road weekends left, and two of the "easier" home series left. I know no weekend is easy in the WCHA, but Goepfert doesn't play for either of the remaining visitors. This zero point weekend means the Sioux cannot get swept on either road trip - a tough requirement, but a possibility. 6-2 is not an outlandish expectation for the remainder of the regular season, although 5-3 might be more realistic. That will bring them up from their current #18 PWR spot to an optimistic bubble position, and then the WCHA first-round will be a win-or-go-home proposition. It's not fun to watch during the learning curve, but it is pretty much unavoidable. No matter the caliber of recruits, they still need to learn from their mistakes and mature physically, mentally and emotionally. (Heck, some posters still need to mature, at least mentally and emotionally.) It's not time to give up yet.