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Everything posted by Brett0909

  1. Brett0909

    University of North Dakota 2019-20 Season

    Watching two NCHC teams in the Frozen Four that UND was able to hold their own with all season outplay the "best of the best" the rest of the country had to offer, I found tiny bit of optimism growing in me. This was quickly squashed by the scar tissues and pessimism from the last several years, but since we have some folks on here who remain optimistic and we have a lot of talent coming in, I figured I'd crunch some numbers to see what statistically this team would be facing going into next year. By the numbers, I think there's reason to be optimistic, so I thought I'd share for any other number geeks like me. Maybe it'll give some folks something to think about instead of the ongoing unwinnable debate of "It's good that the NCHC won for a 4th consecutive, right?" vs. "But I hate UMD and their fans sooooo much...". Clarifications: 1. Data pulled from CHN team statistics. 2. Senior Loss is pretty straightforward, and potential Loss accounts for seniors departing as well as a completely unfounded look at impacts if Peski, Johnson, Yon and Rieger also departed. 3. For fun, I added Westin Michaud's numbers in with the assumption he performed exactly the same next year as he did this. Of note, Westin replaces all our lost PPG (actually +1 net) and SHG by himself. With senior losses-only factored, he replaces 62% of goals and 63% of total points lost. 4. All totals or averages are adjusted for skaters vs. players (ie, with or without Bob) as appropriate. 5. Replacement cost / skater factors what average contribution per incoming skater would be necessary to replace the seniors, and then recalculating based on those four (again, completely unfounded) potential departures I'm picking on unfairly, respectively. Replacement cost (WM) readjusts these calculations by incorporating Westin's contributions -- again, assuming same as last year's numbers. Obviously, everyone can decide for themselves what key observations are, but objectively, this will be one of the easiest years to replace losses I can recall, in a long time. I guess that's the perk of the whole team underperforming when it comes to point production and a relatively small senior class. Of course, that only returns us to the same performance as last year, so you would have to factor in an improvement from both existing players and incoming over and above these numbers to achieve a better result. With UND being just out of the playoff picture this year, it (statistically) should give some hope for a good year -- with Westin's contributions being a potential game changer, by immediately inserting as one of the top producing players and filling a huge void at center.
  2. Brett0909

    UND @ CC -- Friday Gameday

    I’d love to be optimistic about next year’s forwards suddenly changing the story line and blame this tailspin on a few misses or lack of forward talent but in sports or business, this is very reminiscent of classic signs of mediocre/poor leadership we’ve watched from so many other teams. Mike Eaves, York post-Cavanaugh, Lucia, late era Berenson and Parker, etc. In every case, coaches had success but admins waited until the hole was so deep and obvious that it was too late for anything but a complete overhaul, fan interest and revenue were shot, etc. Sears was once a premier store too but didn’t evolve when things stagnated. And yes, if you look at objective outputs, this team is trending similarly to UW, UMN, etc. of recent years whether we want to believe it or not. UND has been so successful for so long that it feels like it’s just assumed they always will and these major warning signs can be ignored and somehow things will just return to normal. My fear is Berry isn’t making the adjustments necessary to right the ship and possibly not even owning the issues. Like a poor workplace culture, strong performers come in and proceed to actually regress over time instead of improving in attitude, consistency, and performance. This is on the leadership in my opinion and why I don’t think bringing in talent alone is going to solve it as some seem to think. UMN always had plenty of talent but Hakstol knew how to put everything together (O actually think he was a better GM mind than game coach). I certainly hope I’m wrong and am no coach, but I’ve led many teams and have seen these same signs many times in business and the red flags are all there. Now I’ve gotten to the point that I just leave games frustrated most nights instead of enjoying it. I was concerned when they hired internally with Berry instead of a nation wide search but ate crow after the NC year. I just hope they figure it out before it all falls apart and/or can make the hard decisions they need to to get back on top, because plenty of other teams are with far less. Maybe next year, right?? Hope everyone one has a great weekend!
  3. Brett0909

    North Dakota at Canisius January 4-5, 2019

    Just me or is it unwatchable for others as well? Constant freezes/buffering...
  4. Brett0909

    North Dakota at Canisius January 4-5, 2019

    Haha. Now it went from nothing to site warning “we have reached out to staff on site about the stream...”
  5. Brett0909

    North Dakota at Canisius January 4-5, 2019

    I got the native playback error on my iPhone, had to try to stream it from google chrome to my TVs chromecast but no feed yet..
  6. Brett0909

    North Dakota at Canisius January 4-5, 2019

    Hopefully the feed just isn’t up. I purchased through Atlantic hockey portal but nothing streaming yet...on my end at least.
  7. Brett0909

    COMMITTED Sioux Recruits

    Apparently! And just for enjoyment (while it lasts at least), they’re a combined 0-8 now...0-9 if you add Harvard in there. Still early, but Quinn’s departure likely being felt and definitely will longer term on the recruiting side. Also seems BC hasn’t been the same level since Cavanaugh’s departure, think a lot of people underestimated him and gave York all the credit. Hopefully there will be a few more top recruits out there for some other teams now.
  8. Brett0909


    Had same issue. Go to the email link (fightinghawks.com/tickets). It brings you to page with hockey, football, etc. options to buy. Don’t click them like I did. instead look for small easy to miss “My North Dakota Account”. Sign in. Click small “Buy Packages/Tickets” toward top. 2019 West Regional package should be on your options and then it’s just cross your fingers on Ticketmaster working. Good luck.
  9. Brett0909


    Agree, mine spun for a good 45 minutes but was just now able to get good tix, still lots available!
  10. Brett0909

    2018-19 Non-UND College Hockey

    Any word on the street if this is expected to impact any specific recruits commitments? With the seeming end to the gentleman's agreement, I'm sure coaches across the country are busy. It's obviously late in the game (unfortunate for both schools and recruits) but I have to imagine some high-end kids had specifically chosen BU and DU because they had NHL-caliber head coaches. I'm going to optimistically read way more than is warranted into UND not announcing final 2018 roster yet and just assume we have a late first rounder addition coming to UND to ease all of our concerns about reloading some finishers onto this team..
  11. Brett0909

    Far too early, but what the hell...Bracketology

    In fairness, I don’t recall offhand what the other bids were but it sounds like other venues aren’t interested in hosting in the “west”? So SCSU may have had to go out east anyway if UND didn’t win this regional. Don’t like the outcome, then bid to host. If you don’t, you’re stuck with the results no matter who you are, at least it’s 100% objectively laid out.
  12. Brett0909

    NORTH DAKOTA @ Miami - FRIDAY Gameday

    I’m definitely having issues with the nchc.tv feed tonight, it’s borderline unwatchable on my end. Worst it’s been all year by a long shot but I’m using the embedded casting option. Probably been frozen 20-30% of the game. Glad it’s working for some of y’all.
  13. Brett0909

    If Not Us, Then Who?

    Definitely wish I had the video editing capability to put together a "highlights" of UMD from this game. Dirty hits, diving, and soap-opera worthy drama, oh my! Duluth fans can try to argue one or two of the videos away but if you captured all of it through the game, the trend is laughable and why Sandy is getting so much flack. There's no way a senior heavy team acts like that top to bottom without coaches not only allowing it for years but at least subtly condoning if not flat out endorsing. I finished the game equally frustrated for UND and deeply embarrassed for UMD fans and thankful we'll never have to be on the wrong side of a tainted win like that. Makes you wonder if that crap is why UMD has very few "good fans". They figure it out and don't stay fans for long. That said, can't wait to see us get the chance for payback in Fargo!!
  14. Brett0909

    NORTH DAKOTA @ St. Cloud State

    Hey all - I have two tickets to both nights games (Fri: Sec 204 Row 7 Seat 15/16 & Sat: Sec 204 Row 7 Seat 1/2). My wife had an uncle pass away up north so we won't be able to make it (second year running, last year was ACL surgery...starting to think the SCSU trip is bad luck). Looking for $25 ($35 face value). Please PM or text me at 701.610.6735 if interested. I can dropoff the physical tickets if you're in the Forks area or get you the reprint/scan tickets from SCSU if you live elsewhere. Unfortunately SCSU is in the stone age so I can't just relist them on ticketmaster.
  15. Try here? http://www.btn2go.com/michigan-state/home I had the same thing when navigating...
  16. Brett0909

    Madison Square Garden here we come - vs BC in 2016

    Tough time for me and the Mrs. to to travel (work) and I agree it should be played at the Ralph, but since we hope to make the trip out there, I won't complain too much. NYC is on her bucket list anyway, so this could be win-win. And I agree - hope Tyson Jost, Fabbro and others are taking note -- in case getting a chance to play for UND at the Ralph regularly and getting ready for the pro's isn't enough, playing in a spotlight game in Madison Square Garden certainly can't hurt when they think about the overall experience UND can offer these young kids.
  17. Brett0909

    Prospective Sioux Recruits

    Once can dream, right?! Everything I've seen/heard indicates Jost and Fabbro are playing out their next/senior/draft season's in Penticton, though. Not sure if there's any chance of that changing for NCAA route, although they shared one of them (Jost?) did accelerate and would be eligible. Thanks to those for linking the TPS audio -- definitely hopeful on Jost and indications seem good that Fabbro is at least considering us strongly. Also thought it was interesting to hear Jost talk about a big benefit of DU was the offensive creativity encouraged of the forwards and less energy needing to be expended on defense -- guess it's more than just UND fans that may see UND's offense as sometimes lacking creativity and being heavy on defensive structure? Personally, I'm over Matthews at this point. I know the int'l visa eligibility may put NCAA back in the picture, but just don't care to follow the drama of it. Of course, if he landed here, I'd be ecstatic and completely get over the 'we don't really need/want him anyway' attitude.
  18. Brett0909

    COMMITTED Sioux Recruits

    Assume you're referring to Luke Bast who got drafted by Victoria in the 6th round... vs. Gabe Bast who's a UND commit?
  19. Brett0909

    Lets change the goal song

    I guess I like Chelsea Dagger. (Light em Up) would be fine if we had to change but I definitely don't prefer it. Maybe in a few more years I'll start getting bored with it and want something else. Originality aspect doesn't bother me - especially since we're just talking about jacking some other song with no traditional or other ties to UND hockey as a replacement. It's not like Fallout Boys oozes deeper meaning to me as a Sioux fan. Besides, plenty of people drive the same car, listen to the same music, etc. as me and I don't go around hating them and knitting my own underoo's on principle. (yes, just joking, I get why some people are bothered by it).
  20. Brett0909

    COMMITTED Sioux Recruits

    Expected 2014 freshman forwards (not counting any pegged as 14' or 15'): Olson Poganski Wilkie Gropp Schmaltz Voltin/Rowe (both were originally expected this year, although their development looks to have been a bit slower) Total 7. Expected departures: 2 (Seniors Rodwell and Mitch Mac). Even if you exclude Voltin and Rowe because I haven't heard much about their plans, and plan for 1 decommit (let's hope not) -- you still have 4 inbound and 2 spots. Unless the scholarships pulled this year will carry-over and allow some addt'l roster spots, you still need either further decommits, transfers, pro signings, or to postpone some high-end players a year. Not ideal in any scenario, but it seems to happen every year so I suppose it makes sense to over-recruit, especially for a player like Gropp. Also, doesn't appear to be any room at D to absorb overflow, either. But these things seem to work themselves out. I just hope it doesn't end up burning any recruits or existing players, even if tough decisions need to be made. Just being greedy, but I want to see all of them in green and white!
  21. Brett0909

    COMMITTED Sioux Recruits

    Excellent get and an exciting class of talented recruits for the next 2 years. But where do all of these guys fit? Even tentatively moving back a couple to the 2015 incoming class, not accounting for Voltin, Rowe, etc., there seems to be a huge logjam at forward with us only losing two seniors after this year. I know you 'make space' for a kid like Gropp, but the numbers just don't add up, especially when they're all high-end guys who aren't going to delay their development by sitting in juniors for extra years. And you definitely can't replace a walk-on with a scholarship player in terms of some folks who aren't seeing the ice much. I'm sure Hak & Co. know what they're doing here, but it'll be interesting to see how this plays out. Hopefully it's not an indicator of a mass-exodus expected (Grimaldi, MacMillan, Parks, etc.) as they just don't seem ready, or of several of these high-end recruits not making it to campus. Would also hate to see some of these kids pushed back and need to come in late or de-commit, or great role-players working their tails off have their scholarship's reduced and/or transfer. Maybe it's like Lebron, Wayde, etc. and they all decided to take reduced offers to put together an elite team. Anyway, incredibly exciting to be landing these kids and can't wait to see them, however this all turns out.
  22. Brett0909

    COMMITTED Sioux Recruits

    Good 2012-13 BCHL Highlight video for Adam Tambellini. Looking forward to seeing this kid play this fall...(and hoping I'm dropping this link in correctly) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=muRjdVF-Aak
  23. Brett0909

    UND 2013-14 season

    Regardless of the discussion about choosing to drink and/or get caught due to the legalities, it's disappointing to me to see where these kids priorities are. Yeah, sure - kids are going to have fun and party in college. But these players are in a program that's working to develop elite hockey players and most have aspirations of the NHL. The fact that they're not only damaging their development by consistently drinking and facing administrative penalties is not a great choice, but I'm more worried about the impact of this 'party culture' on their performance. Seeing players like Kristo in town regularly drinking on game weeks, etc. really makes you wonder what they'd be capable of if they buckled down. Alcohol has been proven time and time again to hamper physical development and performance. The fact that they can't pick their time and place, and have to drink and make other bad choices year-round, is an awfully good way to limit whatever natural-born talent and potential they have. Their choice, but still disappointing. Some players can be really good *despite* drinking, but it's certainly not doing anyone any favors. Through my years in the gym and hundreds of cases to observe, there's no arguing that there's a big difference in physical performance between those who were regimented, ate right, and limited their vices and those who worked hard in the gym but were consistently out partying. Rocco's a great example of a guy who makes the right decisions and outperforms everyone else around him despite possibly not having been born with as many tools. Imagine how even Kristo could have stepped up his game if he'd been committed and leaned-out, gotten stronger, and still had his natural talents. And what Frattin was physically capable of only after he started making the right decisions for his body and attitude. We need players like Chyzyk, Gothberg, etc. to step it up this year, not regress.
  24. Brett0909

    If You Could Own UND's Hockey Team or the Lincoln Stars?

    No expert here, but throwing out a theory...Chances this variance here is due to factor of the REA (ads, concessions, etc.) being privately owned by the Engelstads and not factored into UND's profits -- ie. just ticket sales, or possibly even just a portion of ticket sales (excluding the 'donation' we all make) go to the school and possibly other factors like any online revenue, and tv deal -- vs. Stars being franchised where all marketing, concessions, seats, donations, etc. are paid to the same entity? Unless I'm off here, comparing net profit seems like it's potentially comparing apples to oranges, beyond just the reporting differences for how and what the allocations are when divvied up by UND if you assume that the Engelstad's are taking a good chunk of the profits. All things being equal, the brand, facilities and overall sales would *seem* to be grossly in favor of UND hockey over the Stars who draw significantly less than UNO as a basis for comparison. Again, no expert, but my assumption's always been that Ralph not only made an incredible gift to UND, but also a pretty sound business decision that his family's likely already recouped the investment cost on through having a steady 11-12k visitors every other weekend during hockey season. Those beers ain't cheap, after all, and it's the most visited tourist attraction by a wide margin in the entire state.
  25. Brett0909

    COMMITTED Sioux Recruits

    A little surprised to see Luke Voltin make this list. He obviously has some skills/upside to have been chosen for the NTDP but his stats certainly don't jump out at you - looks like he's 9th on his own team in scoring (14 pts in 31 games), and with only 2 goals. Obviously they saw something that the stat sheet doesn't show you, which is really an encouraging sign that he could have a larger impact here than I originally gave him credit for. Makes me wonder what kind of a role he's filling in Des Moines...