Quest for a Conference

[The Sicatoka]

In a story titled, "Bison struggling to be one of D-I," the Fargo Forum has written a special report article on the actions and activities that NDSU has undertaken in pursuit of a DI conference.

Some interesting excerpts:

Documents show it faces some formidable obstacles, from getting rules changes from the NCAA, which is the ruling body of intercollegiate athletics, to wooing a conference where it can compete.

....

In an unpublicized move, NDSU in December hired a Montana consultant to help win a Big Sky conference affiliation, according to the documents obtained by the newspaper.

Once considered possible, membership in the Big Sky is now seen as more of a long shot.

....

When Carr Sports Associates consulting firm, led by Bill Carr and Gerald O

[jimdahl]

Two things jumped out at me in that article:

Conference affiliation

The quote you included about how the Carr report recommended moving ONLY with a suitable conference and how NDSU seems to be ignoring that. I said it almost a year ago, now -- conference affiliation is such a big determinant of the likelihood of success of a division move that I still don't think UND should move unless it knows where it's going first. The "success" of a move is all about money, and conference affiliation determines the whole profit structure of the program: it determines your travel costs and who comes to your town to play (gate revenues). Though SDSU can't move without a conference, NDSU will probably go ahead either way and provide a good test of the waters.

Punitive NCAA regulations

NDSU is trying to get the NCAA rules changed to be less punitive. This would be absolutely great for every lower level school thinking of moving up. UND has stated that a change in those rules is of one of the few potential catalysts for a move on its part. Very brave of the NDSU officials; I wouldn't want the perception of me succeeding in my job to be hinged on getting the NCAA to pass legislation that was LESS punitive than current rules. Believe me, though, I'm rooting for NDSU in this very limited and narrow scope

[The Sicatoka]

Here's another piece of the article:

NDSU and SDSU hired consultant Chuck Lindemenn of Bozeman, Mont., to determine how each school stacks up against other Big Sky schools.

....

NDSU and SDSU each contracted to pay Lindemenn $5,000.

....

NDSU has already paid Lindemenn $2,500, but it has yet to get a preliminary report. That was due Feb. 18, according to a letter Lindemenn sent Taylor in December.

That deadline was moved back to the end of March. Taylor, last week, said he also hasn

[star2city]

...  The "success" of a move is all about money, and conference affiliation determines the whole profit structure of the program:    ...

To me, the above quote gets to the core of the Division I reclassification issue. If a conference affiliation is secured (however difficult), even the punitive regulations of the NCAA matter much less.

One would think that Northern Colorado's AD would have some of the answers, as they are the first school to move up under the new rules. UNC's upcoming basketball schedule should provide a lot of answers about scheduling problems as a Div I independent in transition.

In the near future, probably this summer, two lower division schools will likely announce their intention to move to Div I with conference affiliation: Central Oklahoma and Langston (Oklahoma).

Central Oklahoma will move up if they get an invitation to the I-AA Southland Conference. The Southland, which has 11 basketball schools and 7 football schools, needs one school to get to an ideal 12 BB / 8 FB. The candidate school should be in a metro area in a neighboring state to the Southland's Texas/ Louisiana region. This is potentially the perfect situation for both the Southland and Central Oklahoma.

Langston will move up if it gets an invitation from the I-AA Southwestern Athletic Conference, which is a conference of historically black colleges. By adding Langston, the SWAC will have 12 FB teams (they just added Morris Brown to make eleven), which will allow them to split the conference into divisions, add another state for media attention, and make possible a conference championship game (and another TV contract besides the Southern/Grambling game and the Heritage Bowl).

With Cal-Davis's acceptance into the Big West as a third example, it shows it is possible for Div II schools to be accepted directly into Div I conferences. But it takes a lot of homework, a decent program, and being in the right place at the right time to benefit the economics of the existing conference.

[star2city]

A copy of an extended on-line chat with Doug Fulllerton, commissioner of the Big Sky Conference, is located here. Even though his statements are three years old, almost all the information is still remarkably relevant. For example, the blackballing of Southern Utah as a member must still be intact, even after several years of lobbying by Southern Utah, and probably Northern Arizona and Weber State.

Dback Jon:

Commissioner Fullerton, several years ago, when Sac State and CSUN

were added, no invite was given to Southern Utah, which is the closest

I-AA school to Flagstaff. Why was that, and is there any thought

of ever inviting them?

Doug Fullerton:

Dback, I think the Presidents felt that S.Utah didn't add anything

in terms of a convenient trip or a media market when they last considered

them. There is support among the Conference, just not a majority.

Dback Jon:

Thanks, that is what I had figured - Cedar City is convenient only

to NAU and somewhat to Weber.

Justin:

At the time of the last change in membership, SUU was not attractive

due to their funding and facilities, as well as their academic reputation.

There have been many changes in Cedar City since then, but have those changes

made SUU any more attractive to the Sky? For a long time I've heard

rumors that Montana is vocally opposed to SUU joining the league, and recently

I heard that Weber is also black-balling SUU. Can you comment on

that?

Doug Fullerton:

Justin, I won't say who opposes S.Utah, but I will say that Weber has

been a vocal supporter.

Here was Commissioner Fullerton's comments on NCC schools (remember, this was April of 2000). Clearly, even in the year 2000, Fullerton had a very good understanding of who could and would go Div I, as I'm sure he did not include SCSU, MSU-M, UNO, or Augie as Div I potential. My point of all this is that well-thought out expansions are considered by commissioners and ADs for years. Agreements between Cal-Davis, Langston, and Central Oklahoma and their prospective conferences were not spur-of-the-moment decisions but was the fruit of years of relationship building and trust that began when there was mutual interest. In my view, Div II schools expecting Div I conference affiliation to happen on their time frame are certainly naive, and either foolishly courageous or blindly stupid.

Dback Jon:

There has been talk about members of the North-Central moving up to

Division I and possibly aligning with the Big Sky -- schools such as all

the Dakota schools -- is there anything to that?

Doug Fullerton:

I think there are about two-five members of the North Central Conference

who would like to look at I-AA. I have encouraged them to do so.

I don't think they are a match for the Big Sky -- travel is very difficult

-- but you never say never.

David F:

North Dakota State has better facilities and attendance than many I-AA's,

re: the Dakota question.

Doug Fullerton:

I agree with the fact that NDSU could make the jump (their budget would

have to increase by about $2M per year to be at the average in the Big

Sky, but I think they are surely capable.

[bisonguy]

In my view, Div II schools expecting Div I conference affiliation to happen on their time frame are certainly naive, but either foolishly courageous or blindly stupid.

star2city,

So, IF UND moves up, they should do so at the convenience of a conference? If UND doesn't have a DI plan, isn't financially capable, or whatever other reason not ready for DI, but a conference spot is open, they should move up? Would any conference want a team in that position?

Your references are to weaker conferences that compare to the Mid-Con.

An ideal conference spot is not always going to be available for a school moving up.

As far as the sly NDSU DI doomsday blather, there are still a lot of scenarios that can play out. There's even been talk of the worst case scenario. Some of the Gateway fans think that the addition of NDSU,SDSU, and UNC would add much needed stability if added to the Mid-Con. Add the fact that the Mid-Con. would then have 12 teams, could split into two divisions, and the conference would no longer be spread all over.

and being in the right place at the right time to benefit the economics of the existing conference.

And what if you're not at the right place (geographically speaking ) at the right time? You have to play with the cards you're dealt, and try to get a better hand in the future. Remember, Pres. Chapman said the move to DI was for the future of NDSU, not the next two or three years.

[star2city]

To answer your questions:

So, IF UND moves up, they should do so at the convenience of a conference?

Basically yes, as that is the only real way to be succesful, unless you have deep pockets. If several options each having a > than 50% probability of success are available, making a jump without a conference would make sense.

If UND doesn't have a DI plan, isn't financially capable, or whatever other reason not ready for DI, but a conference spot is open, they should move up?

A decent conference will not be inviting a school that is not D-I ready facility-wise, financial-wise, or any other wise. Having a Carr consultant report in hand will have nil impact on getting an invitation. Conference commissioner-AD relationships trump consultant reports every time. A decent athletic department is prepared for many different scenarios. The question is moot.

Would any conference want a team in that position?

No. But they wouldn't ask.

Your references are to weaker conferences that compare to the Mid-Con.

The Southland and the SWAC have reasonable reputations especially in football and much more stability and tradition compared with the Mid-Con. The Mid-Con, and only because of Valparaiso, has better basketball.

An ideal conference spot is not always going to be available for a school moving up.

True, but any move is all about minimizing downside risk and maximizes upside return. For UND, the downside is huge, and the upside that is within UND's control is almost nil. Upside outside of UND's control may change at any time, or it may take 20 years. Waiting for the upside to have less risk is almost a no-brainer.