wxman91
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Posts
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Posts posted by wxman91
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13 minutes ago, homer said:
We will see when the dust settles but the 25%-30% numbers I’ve seen have been for black voters. I’m not confusing anything. He will be much higher with the minority vote this year is my prediction.
I’d take some examples. That seems unlikely to me. Here is one example. A +10 Biden poll so probably high, but it shows the demographics. Black 89-8.
Edit - the new Fox News poll was 80-14 Biden among Blacks
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3 hours ago, NoiseInsideMyHead said:
Virginia is, like, 43rd in terms of tests per capita. How confident are you in the numbers knowing that you're not testing anywhere near the level of someplace like ND (3rd), which I presume you would say is 'not doing well.'
Your take keeps looking worse and worse the more I look at the data. You are suggesting that ND has higher number because it is testing more. The problem is that the state is testing more AND the positive test rate is high. If the numbers were simply due to testing the positivity rate would be quite low. Instead, ND has a 12% positive test rate (compared to 6% for VA and 8.5% for MN). ND is objectively doing really poorly. But evidently you have decided that killing off people with preexisting conditions is the price of doing business, so you do you.
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Pew poll from a couple weeks ago. Very similar to 2016. I think it might be more accurate to say that Trump hasn’t lost ground with minorities like he has with White voters.
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2 minutes ago, SiouxFan100 said:
I would be all in for John kasich for president from the Republican Party
There has been rumblings that Kasich may end up in a Biden administration.
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11 minutes ago, homer said:
So if you are going to believe polling national polling Trump is polling around 25%-30% minority vote nationally and even higher in FL. That certainly does equate to an advantage when he was around 8% in 2016. There is a reason the D’s rely so heavily on the minority vote. Only 70% could make things interesting.
I think you are confusing statistics. Trump always had a decent Hispanic vote, especially the Cubans in FL. His total in 2016 nationwide was estimated at 28%.
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1 hour ago, NoiseInsideMyHead said:
What's frustrating is for coastal elites to make reckless assumptions about the rest of the country that have zero basis in fact.
I'm sure you think you know what's going in places like North Dakota, but I can assure you that you do not.
We are doing fine. We are not dropping like flies. We know all about masks and we even have doctors and hospitals with running water.
Thank you for your concern.
From UND to the coastal elite. I’ve made it!
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14 minutes ago, UNDlaw80 said:
Despite being a senile fossil, Biden was the safe choice. Unlike Bernie or whoever, Biden can still appeal to left-leaning republicans in a time of immense polarization. Even if people may not like his policies, he's a known entity for voters who are fed up with the Trump circus.
Notice how the right-wing's "socialist" label isn’t sticking to him, they're going after Harris with that.Biden is the nominee because Bernie ran when he shouldn’t have. Bernie has a dedicated minority following in the party with no real route to increasing support. But his presence snuffed out any other more realistic liberal candidate.
I personally wish Sherrod Brown would have run, but Biden will do for four years.
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4 minutes ago, SIOUXFAN97 said:
stayinyourbasementforever
You really can’t form a rational argument, can you.
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12 minutes ago, SiouxFan100 said:
I am a North Dakotan. I am concerned about the out of control virus. Not only because of what it does to people (we don’t know all the lingering long term effects of the disease) but what it has done to our economy.
we can control our response (keep economy open) but this doesn’t mean the Covid is something to just dismiss as just another virus
Interesting point on the economy.
GDP by state, Q2
ND -27.6%
VA -27.0%
And lest we think that this is solely because of oil+, SD’s was -28.8%.
Study after study shows that the economy is primarily driven by the virus, not the government response. The absolute best thing for the economy is to beat back the virus.
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16 minutes ago, NoiseInsideMyHead said:
Due SOLELY to the difference, no. There are other variables as well.
But you would have to admit that a five-fold increase in testing in a particular locality would result in an increase in detected "cases" there.
The problem with comparing cities to cities, states to states, and countries to countries -- as so many people are inclined to do -- is that there are far too many disparities in data to do so meaningfully. Until one normalizes for local variances in how tests are conducted and reported, it's a fool's errand.
You'll be happy to know that we are North Dakota are also doing well with COVID. You just won't see it reported in the media.
That is a head-in-the-sand response that is very reminiscent of Trump stating that the US only looked bad because of testing, which is easily disputed by any statistical measure.
Here’s my frustration, from the perspective of a lefty lib who doesn’t actually want people to die. COVID hit the large coastal metro areas hard early on. There was confusion about masks, testing, and treatment. There were likely a lot of avoidable fatalities. But over the course of the year the medical community figured it out and there is a playbook now. To see the rural states completely ignore this in the name of politics or a twisted definition of “freedom” is stunning.
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22 minutes ago, NoiseInsideMyHead said:
Math not your strong suit?
I have a minor from UND, so maybe not.
Perhaps my shorthand wasn’t communicated properly. That massive gap between the number of positive tests is not likely to be due to the difference in testing levels between ND and Fairfax County, VA.
edit w/stats - out for a walk and can’t find the county-specific hospitalization or testing numbers
Last 14 days:
ND (750k population) - 12,000 cases, 124 deaths
FFX (1.1m population) - 1,500 cases, 7 deaths
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4 minutes ago, SIOUXFAN97 said:
fixed
That’s strange, I must have been hallucinating going on a couple of weekend trips this year, enjoying our park system, going shopping, grabbing food from our open restaurants. But yes, I didn’t go to a rock concert this year. Of course, I haven’t been to one since 2005, so, eh.
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7 minutes ago, SIOUXFAN97 said:
are those "with" or "of"...just asking for a friend that has a heroin problem.
Excess deaths. So it completely removes the whole testing aspect. The current COVID death count is an undercount, and will be corrected by modeling over time like the flu counts are.
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6 minutes ago, NoiseInsideMyHead said:
Virginia is, like, 43rd in terms of tests per capita. How confident are you in the numbers knowing that you're not testing anywhere near the level of someplace like ND (3rd), which I presume you would say is 'not doing well.'
Pretty confident. In my county there are more people than the entire population of ND. NDs count yesterday was >1300. Ours was 112. That is not a testing difference.
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4 minutes ago, TheFlop said:
Hey, maybe try pointing to an actual instant where a ballot was submitted the proper way including within timeliness guidelines, by a legal voter, marked correctly, not fraud (ie not a double ballot) and the votes weren't counted?
You brought up voter suppression and were called out on your incorrect statements. It is incumbent on you to provide instances of the media suppressing votes. I’m not going to bother looking up study after study that shows the cumulative impact of almost entirely republican efforts to make voting more difficult.
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1 minute ago, TheFlop said:
And like the much of the East coast (not all) the only reason your numbers are appearing better is because it already ran through you guys. Everything takes longer to get to the Midwest.
And masks.
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2 minutes ago, UND1983 said:
Good to see waxman69 back to educate all the racists on here. We missed it.
I see the level of discussion hasn’t changed much.
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6 minutes ago, TheFlop said:
So media promoted voter suppression is fine?
Hey, maybe try pointing to an actual instance of where the media has reduced the vote.
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9 minutes ago, UND1983 said:
A lockdown or version of, perhaps?
When was there a lockdown where they forced you to congregate mask-free in a certain indoor public location?
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10 minutes ago, TheFlop said:
For the voter suppression crowd, wouldn't repeatedly putting out polls that oversample Democrats.....and election night declarations long before polls have closed on "who won a state" squarely fall in that category?
Both of your claims here are unsubstantiated.
Where is the evidence that polls are over sampling Ds? 2016? What about 2012 and 2018 when the polls were wrong the other direction?
No states are called before polls have closed in that state. I can’t even recall the last time that happened. They barely leak the exits polls nowadays.
Actual voter suppression is shown by hours-long voting lines, efforts to not count submitted ballots, and strict ID laws.
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8 minutes ago, TheFlop said:
Have fun! Good thing that if Covid-19 is gonna be surface passed having the same person handing out candy touch the candy and the bag first should be much safer than just dropping a few mini snickers in your kids bag.
I haven’t been worried about surface transmission for a long time. But I can see how others might be sensitive to it. Prolonged indoor, mask-free exposure is by far the most efficient pathway.
Thankfully, my area (VA burbs of DC) is doing well with COVID now.
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7 minutes ago, zonadub said:
2 rules they should have...
Legislation should have a single purpose (no additional pork attached)
Everyone should be required to pass a test on their knowledge of the Constitution before they can introduce, co-sponsor or vote on any bills
RBG and Scalia both had deep, deep understanding of the Constitution and came up with different interpretations of cases all the time.
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Hey dumpster fire participants. The Miller news sucked me back in, but don’t worry, I’ll step back out and let Hayduke meme his way through the thread.
On COVID-19, no surprise at all that ND is struggling. I hope we’ve collectively put to bed the idea that it is no worse than the flu. At the year mark, we will be approaching 400k dead, which is over 10x the normal flu season. And we aren’t even in sniffing distance of herd immunity. I’m glad that a vaccine wasn’t rushed for election purposes but I do hope one is found to be safe and useful soon. The good part is that the measures taken this far (lockdowns, restrictions, masks) have allowed the medical community to come up with better treatment plans, and along with the shift to younger patients, the death rate is down. Not enough, but better. The resistance to mask wearing in some areas is still disappointing, and from a political perspective, has completely backfired (see: WI).
Which takes us to the election. The challenger is very, very likely to win. In 2016, there were more undecideds due to the unfavorable personal ratings of both candidates and those voters broke, en masse, to the current President. There are comparatively few undecided voters this year. There are of course uncertainties due to the mail in vote, and election night is bound to be an unsatisfying event, but the consistency of the polling has been amazing. Of course, the only pause given to that is from certain outfits like Trafalgar/Rasmussen/Susquehanna who continue to show better results for the incumbent. Trafalgar is a particularly interesting case where they intentionally adjust their polls to account for a “shy” Trump voter. They point to results in 2016 as a reason, but most research disputes their conclusion, and in fact firms like Rasmussen performed poorly in 2018. Florida will be key to an early election night. They will have almost all of their votes counted. Without a win in FL, there is no realistic path to re-election for the President. If he does get FL, it is going to be a messy wait until AZ/GA and especially PA count their votes.
Happy and safe Halloween to all. I will be doing a neighborhood parade with my daughter tonight and many people will be setting out candy bags. We’ve decorated several dozen as a fun way to change it up this year.
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1 hour ago, yzerman19 said:
I’m just writing away this morning...
Here are some other things that have really degraded opportunity in the USA that have nothing to do with social justice:
1. Corporations outsourcing jobs overseas to save a buck. Inflated earnings, but at the expense of product quality (pharma great example) and US jobs.
2. The elimination of defined benefit pensions. Again, really improved the balance sheets of Corporations, but at the cost of security. Do not confuse this with the underfunded pensions in the public sector. Those would be fine too if they were properly managed.
3. Corporate tax law. If you look at the effective rates actually paid, well, let’s just say we all wish we paid so little.
4. Housing. I’ve said it a million times. All people want is a job, a family, and a home they own. When a house in CA costs $700k as a starting point, there is no hope for the masses.
im losing steam...too much posting for a Sunday morning.
Reagan was a disaster for this country.
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2020 Dumpster Fire (Enter at your own risk)
in Community
Posted
You just said a lot of things that are contradictory or irrelevant. If they are incentivizing and testing asymptomatic students, then why is the positive rate so high? Are you really banking on errors for why ND and SD look so bad right now? If there were systematic errors, why are the positive tests geographically clustered?
Your definition of “fine” is the biased opinion. By objective measures, ND has the worst case rate in the country and has had so for a while now.