yzerman19

The other factor is the kid factor and being away from home. Some kids aren't ready for that. Some situations aren't great either in terms of billets, etc. some kids might not want to live and breathe hockey. Some kids might hate the emphasis in the gym. Some might find regional differences hard to deal with or rural vs urban vs suburban settings. School is a factor. My point is it isn't all just about hockey that these decisions are made.

Could definitely see that with the U.S. Players. Putting them in the same draft as Canadian kids, that risk of ever reporting and maybe only getting them for 1 year looms large.

Really interesting article with some good data points. To some degree, this is about a numbers game and sorta shows that the scouts don't necessarily get it correct on 15/16 year olds. If you have one or two surprise hits and one or two surprise misses out of every 20 guys, that makes a huge difference across the sheer number of players in the CHL vs the USHL and definitely vs the single team NTDP. I like the point that there is no veteran leadership on the ice and no further-developed players age wise on the NTDP...You can certainly point collect without being the alpha dog on a CHL team if you are on the pp and playing with older, drafted players on the regular. In looking at the 2010's in particular and the data points in terms of when American kids committed to the WHL it reveals that several of the guys referenced made the call around the time they or their agents learned they were not being invited to 40-man camp such as Colmer and Kaebel. Both are good players, but they weren't getting invites. Dozark is a notable exception as he is a top 4 D in the US in that birth year and committed way earlier than the 40-man discussion. His rights were also held by Portland which is a US destination and a top end program. Much easier transition for an American kid. Deraney is another that had a solid shot at making the NTDP and chose to go WHL before invites went out. He also had a destination that is familar to US players in that Penticton was in the BCHL and developing NCAA talent for years before making the move to the WHL. These cases are also a product of the fact that the WHL drafts a year early giving players that clear option and being able to woo players for almost a year before the NTDP makes its selections. Sorry all, I thought this was really interesting and commented, but further discussion on the matter probably should land on another thread...

DiCunzolo is Penn State, I know that.

For NTDP players from Minnesota this year, here's just some of the out of season teams they played on other than the District HP teams: Minnesota Blades AAA- Cullen, Stevens, Thompson Minnesota Fire AAA- Stevens, Thompson, McKinnon, Buttweiler SDP AAA- McKinnon, Stevens, Suter, Buttweiler ProHybrid AAA- Schemenauer Thompson, Cullen, Buttweiler, and Suter also spent time on season based AAA teams in the blue blood arena such as Honeybaked and Little Caesars. Breakaway Academy connections- Stevens, Thompson, Schemenauer so all but Knott seemed to be on the Major AAA circuit and almost half went to a special school with a hockey focus. these boys were obviously talented and worked to hone the talent to get to the program, so no way to say they would or wouldn't have made it without AAA, but they almost all did.

Blue Ox and Loons and such are part of the CCM HP program. This is not pay to play AAA in the typical sense, but you still pay lol. Those teams are district based and there is a process to making the teams. They are also adjacent to the USA Select process for national development camp.

its a great debate. Lots to consider in all of this. It depends on the team and the kid a lot too. It is telling that the best WHL eligible US players that were drafted in 2025 ALL chose NTDP over WHL when offered in April.

If you have to pay for an agent that is a HUGE tell. None of the top agencies charge for representing top youth players. They believe and are invested on the return when the kid gets paid to play hockey.

I wonder if the Nicol brothers are on Chyz's radar? Reid is excellent in his own right, but his little brother is a potential exceptional status player. They are from Brandon.

fair- a handful of kids have selected CHL over NTDP over the years. From a physical development perspective the NTDP cannot be beaten, kids come out of there strong and fast. Can argue about competitive development until everyone turns blue in the face. I guess my point is that you seldom see a top kid say CHL over NTDP. Does it happen? Sure, but its unusual. With that being said, that will limit US kids getting drafted high, because they are a riskier bet.

any American kid who is 100% committed to CHL either isn't on the NTDP radar or their agent has a bone to pick with NTDP

It will be interesting to see what happens in the WHL draft. Historically they had the separate US Draft, so they were used to taking flyers there. They picked up Thompson and Morris early last year, but Joey Cullen was picked up later because of the Force connection and the <1% chance he would report. In a unified draft they probably would've slipped a ways simply because US kids are harder to commit. I predict zero top dog american kids go in the first round of the WHL draft this year.

As was said...and...before the draft, teams talk to players and if they want the team and the team wants the player. boom. This year's draft really showed the CHL to NCAA influence. The USHL is scared of guys that also have CHL opportunities.

The 2 top of the list 2010 guys with local roots already made NTDP...unlikely Joey goes anywhere other than Gophers. Thompson is a possibility though.

Burris, Kunz yesterday and Bydal today so far. Kraft, Coulter, Korten, Grammar, Q Jackson, Hontvedt, Marvin from the area just to name a few. You can find whole lists on USHL draft board

A handful of talented local(ish) kids went in the USHL draft yesterday...Moorhead, Warroad, Grand Forks. Be fun to see their progress and interest in UND. Several guys that were previously selected by WHL teams but didn't sign were drafted, however it seemed quite clear to me that guys that had a high probability of going CHL were not picked up or picked up late as flyers. Seemed to me that the battle lines are really being drawn between USA Hockey and Hockey Canada...which is too bad, because it only hurts the kids. Another note is that the online rating and scouting services seem to be off in left field on a number of these guys. Not surprising. They get paid on clicks, not on wining games or getting guys to the next level.

I think there are going to be portal schools and overager schools and Elite 18 year old schools....

one more thing. If you are really good with a future beyond high school in hockey, you will know it by 2nd year PeeWee. be honest and don't get seduced by bs that just drains your bank account. Most important of all however is to listen to your kids. Do they love playing hockey or do they just love being with their friends? Do they hate to lose or is it just a game? Do they shoot pucks on their own without being asked? Do they talk hockey when nobody is around? Do they want to play hockey or be hockey players?

The label "AAA" is just that, a label. There are varying degrees within that label. I would break down the thinking in terms of competition, coaching, and exposure as the main goals of any spring hockey. If you are looking for what should truly be a top end experience against top end competition, there are only a handful of tournaments to play in: Brick and Brick Series for the Squirts, Clash and Triple Crown for the PeeWees, Triple Crown and then WSI 15 for the bantams. I think Toronto just started a 15 tourney as well last year (Kwench or something) that is also high end. The rest is just fun tourneys. If its coaching that you need, well you need to really take a long look at who is coaching and what they are coaching. If you are looking for development, save your money unless the team runs real practices a couple days/week. If your child is good not great, I would recommend saving the tourney expenses and investing in skating and skills instead. Remember the best players in the world have the puck on their stick maybe 2 minutes in a 60 minute game. At young ages you are far better practicing than you are playing organized games.

I'm with you JK. In a world of free agency, its players vs team to me in the NHL

obviously we all want to win, but the process is more important than an outcome that nobody can guarantee. I want to watch young talented guys put it on display. I don't want to watch older, transfer portal, grindaz teams. Its like the old Jacques Lemaire left wing lock...you can win, but it isn't fun to watch.

NTDP obviously is the exception in the USHL if you count them as such. The debate is raging on all of this, especially with the new AAA development league in the US. American players are going to risk all their standing with USA hockey if they cross the border to play...

I don't believe its that simple. We didn't win a chip with Parise, Toews, Oshie, Zajac, Stafford...but boy those teams were fun to watch, and I kept following those players as they all had great careers in the NHL. It is for this reason that I believe college hockey has something that the NHL does not...you get to watch stars grow from kids to men. I agree that you don't ignore pieces to the puzzle that happen to play in the CHL...No debate that there are many talented kids up there. I was just poking fun at the dub focus of late. Not discounting it, just having fun. Its such an entertaining debate...the top end US kids that are torn between NTDP and CHL...I think the US program won every kid they wanted this year, only exception might be Dozark.

The best of the best US kids ain't going CHL...they will still do NTDP. I'm actually scared that this board is going so hard WHL...yes, you can win a chip, but....

If we become a team that is all western canada kids coming from the dub...well, nothing against those guys, but it aint my fandom