I think that even if Lennon leaves, UND has a much better chance at success early in their transition than USD. True, USD has had recent success on the field, but I am not convinced yet that they can sustain that long term. In terms of recruiting,I think that football wise USD will be playing second fiddle to SDSU for many years to come. I am well aware that this isn't necessarily a reflection on their programs, but you have to remember these are young kids making these decisions on where they will play football. Alot of kids make that decision based on who is the most well known school in that sport. I believe the same case could be made for UND vs. NDSU.
More to the point though, It would be a major loss for UND at this point in the transition to lose Coach Lennon. IMO, he has single-handedly kept that program competetive during his tenure. I also believe that he won't take the job.