jimdahl

It's not certain whether even a maximal effort could have prevented the watering down, but those schools that failed to do everything they could but are now complaining in arrears do indeed seem foolish to me. The million dollar question. D-I seems to be having some success with punitive transition requirements and hard attendance limits; perhaps 30 years ago that would have done something for D-II, but now it's water under the bridge. Whereas dissatisfied D-II members can climb to D-IAA, and have been for 20+ years, the major D-I's have nowhere to climb but out of the NCAA, which is what convinces me that they'll put up a more valiant fight than the major D-II's did. Bison1234- I, too, hope UND reclassifies. There's a big difference between discussing obstacles and hoping for failure. A year ago some Bison fans were chastising Sicatoka and me for discussing the difficulties we thought NDSU would face in finding a D-I conference; the NDSU leaders had assured the faithful that conferences were knocking on NDSU's door, but that they just couldn't be named until the deals were finalized. The highly punitive probationary period is another major stumbling block that NDSU leaders have instructed the faithful to ignore with promises that it would just go away (as cited by Tony). Addressing obstacles and risks leads to better planning and mitigation; unfortunately, NDSU's and SDSU's leaders have been under continuing pressure to sell the reclassifications to the public which I think has led to downplaying those risks and obstacles. Those who dare discuss them are branded as trying to disrupt the reclassification (ridiculously so, since my claiming there are obstacles has no actual effect on whether or not there are). My primary interest in this topic is because I hope UND is able to reclassify, but don't really know all the obstacles/risks.

A school trying to move up probably doesn't care at all that they're watering down the division, it's not at all foolish for them; the existing members that let their division be watered down are foolish. Whereas some people who complain continuously about the watering down of D-II also like to bet that D-I will continue to open its arms to being watered down by institutions like NDSU, star2city was guessing otherwise.

Not so useful yet, but still there: What-if The big change this season will be support for all 6 conferences. That was actually not trivial because some conferences don't play all games in series (which the WCHA calculator assumed). I'm not positive they all work perfectly yet, but will by January. The toolchest is getting big enough that I suspect I'll just add a "stats tools" page around mid-season that points out everything working by then. My long-term hope is to apply technology similar to the conference standings what-if to some of the other ratings, but the hurdles are much bigger and I'm pretty far behind where I'd need to be to get it done this season. Come on, the real-time no-reload high-speed sorting on those ratings pages is neat and you know it.

Obligatory plug: you can actually view preliminary computer rankings without waiting and without even leaving the site: RPI, PWR, Bradley-Terry We already offer a few unique features such as in-place sortability and the uber-geeky drill-down into comparisons features in PWR. By the time the numbers become more meaningful, I'll have hopefully had to time to add help text to aid lesser geeks interpret the data and perhaps a few more features/meaningful ways to present the data. A page that compares various ratings is already in the works -- other suggestions for improvements in presentation are always welcome. (Known flaws: The SOS calculation in KRACH still isn't dealing with sparse data perfectly, though the Bradley-Terry itself is correct. The RPI shows an opponent win % of 0 for teams that have faced only one opponent, though the value should actually be undefined).

How long have you been in Salt Lake City? I made it to a few days of the '02 Winter Olympics (including US vs. Russia hockey) and had a blast there. I can't tell you how much film I wasted trying to time it right to get a picture of a bobsled with a point and shoot film camera (I didn't even bother trying digital).

Though I'm the first to admit to being a little confused by the new D-II football tournament selection criteria, my understanding is that the regional rankings are the sole determinant of playoff participants. Those are calculated by the NCAA based on a published set of criteria that do not include any polls (unlike the BCS). Therefore, 3rd party polls, such as the d2football.com poll being discussed, are just novelties and bulletin board filler.

The catalyst for change IS NDSU choosing to reclassify. While discontinuing the matchup requires a choice by UND, I suspect most fans want UND to do what's best for itself -- that probably means maximizing playoff chances rather than continuing the rivalry. While I can only speak for myself, quite a few of us actually wish UND would study reclassification. Depending on the results of the study, that could lead to maintaining the rivalry. It seems UND is taking a wait-and-see attitude on that, as well. I would still predict that any interruption will be only a hiatus rather than an end to the rivalry -- the schools are too similar to be in different division over the long term. However, given the current state, I do think UND should do what's best for itself.

I agree entirely. It is an actual poll, the aggregate of many people's opinions, not just some guy's rankings. I honestly don't know how representative the pollees are, but I just don't understand why anyone gets upset about a poll. It's interesting to watch polls to see what the pros/coaches/media think of your team, but if you're confident your team is underrated, have faith that will come out at game time.

Let me try an analogy -- Bison fans seem to like using those to try to understand situations that confuse them. If Airmail's neighbor Jim moves to Russia, it's Jim's action that led them to no longer be neighbors; whereas you would claim that it's Airmail's fault that they're not neighbors anymore because Airmail chose not to move to Russia. It was indisputably NDSU's decision to reclassify that caused NDSU to be in a different division from UND.

What a ludicrous claim. NDSU chooses to change its classification, putting the two schools in different classifications; yet somehow in your twisted perception, its actually a choice by UND because they didn't simultaneously change their classification? Your anti-UND bias apparently does prevent any modicum of logical reasoning.

On the subject of prognostication, let's not forget who defended using the bubble screen against the Bison zone blitz .

I think UND92,96 predicted the difference between how UND and UNO match up against the Bison pretty well in his first three posts in this thread (written last Sunday).

You never give up, eh? You made a bunch of loud-mouthed predictions and it comes back to bite you when you turn out to have been wrong. Since you're still making wild predictions, let's revisit the accuracy of your past predictions: I don't think anyone's really interested in your Sioux-related predictions anymore. You obviously just can't objectively evaluate the Sioux because of your hatred of your rival.

I don't think luck has much to do with it. Bad play calling by NDSU coaches, perhaps. Poor execution by NDSU players, definitey. But I don't really see a role for luck in that particular play. Taking advantage of your opponents' stupid formations is just good football. I'm sure we'll give NDSU some similar opportunities, and if NDSU capitalizes on some of them it won't be because of luck.

Yeah, it was a bit of a bubble. There was a small bubble of players up front who didn't really block in the way I thought a bubble screen normally went, but that's what I would have called it. Like I said, the bubble screen is actually theoretically a pretty good play when your opponent is prone to zone blitz. You get 3-5 yards for free and then you force open field tackles, which we managed to shake in this instance.

Personally, I can't wait to hear the hypocritical justifications coming from these same fans when the NDSU administration starts variable ticketing pricing. Fortunately, given the NDSU's need for increased revenue during the transition, I suspect I won't have to wait long. If some Bison fans are really so offended by athletics being run with a business mentality (and are not just shortsightedly picking on this because of an anti-anything UND reflex), it's going to be a hilarious 5 years.

If you visited more reputable sites, you'd know the Sioux have won the nickel 34 times (options abound, really). (Edit -- removed some observations on seasons in which the Sioux and Bison have played twice because I'm now somewhat satisfied; an explanation of how each of those years was resolved is on the nickel page linked above).

It's not my decision. I am actually a little scared of the thought of a big shakeup in an athletics program with which I'm pretty pleased and of the possibility of having to reduce athletic opportunities (as you suggested would be necessary); however, accomplishment requires taking risks and I'm personally strongly in favor of studying a reclassification. There's plenty of fan talk about whether UND should formally study D-IAA in the D-IAA forum, which would probably be the correct place to further pursue this topic so we can keep it separate from the football talk for people who are sick of the subject. Back on topic -- I agree, the winner holds the nickel and does what they want with it. Destroying it immediately would probably be shortsighted because it would require the belief that there's no chance of the rivalry resuming. Fortunately, I doubt the administration of either institution is quite that rash. As I suggested above, a few years out, I doubt many people would care.

While attacks on the popularity of hockey at UND draws the guffaws from some of your fellow NDSDSU fans (almost as funny and creative as intentionally misspelling Sioux and incorrectly not capitalizing proper names), here you're going to have get your facts right. Hockey is revenue positive for UND (tremendously) so UND has more money to spend on other sports because of its hockey program than it would otherwise have. The revenues of over 250,000 tickets sold per year at the new REA are already benefiting athletics throughout UND; take the new REA Sports Center as evidence. This is why they play the games on the field; anything can happen. No doubt a D-IAA school paying full scholarships should be heavily favored against a D-II team, but ask Montana how laughable it is for the game to go the other way.

If the series really stops, I can't imagine anyone's really going to care for more than a year or so. What happened to the Sitting Bull trophy when we quit playing for it? It's probably at one of the schools, but is more of a historical remnant than a coveted trophy. 20 years from now if UND and NDSU haven't played each other since 2003, the students simply won't care about a trophy from a long-dead rivalry. Because the winner of the final contest would still be interested in the trophy at that time, they would rightfully take it and likely end up the long-term keeper. I think the odds of this actually being the last meeting between UND and NDSU are infinitesimal, but that's a whole different thread; I'm just playing along with the hyopthetical situation required for the conversation.

That statement becomes more true each week. #22 Mesa State knocked off #14 Chadron this week to climb to 5-1 overall.

The slow screen actually sounded like it was working against SDSU. I agree with UND92,96 that NDSU's CB's haven't really been tested by a true passing team (SCSU, for example). It seems like the Sioux actually have the right plays to exploit NDSU's weaknesses. UND92,96: as a pretty casual football fan, myself, I'm curious about your emphasis on using a traditional screen rather than a bubble screen against a heavy pass rush; I was under the impression that was the only appropriate time to use the bubble screen because you can often get 3-5 yards if the pass coverage is giving up the underneath zone (of course, that's only true if we've established a non-screen passing game). NDSU fans in the off-season were predicting a big shift in the Bison from the run to the pass, which we haven't really seen yet. I'll be interested to see if UND's D can contain arguably the best running game it's seen this season; if so, I think we stand a chance. I'm certainly not disputing that NDSU should be favored by most impartial observers, but I think the Sioux strengths match up with the Bison weaknesses pretty well, making a Sioux win a possibility. A low scoring affair does seem likely (my prediction of which guarantees at least 40 points per team )

The Sioux missed the pass for 2, it bounced through the air, the Sioux caught it. 2 secs remaining in the game.

10-21 4:52 remaining in the 3rd, the Sioux got on the board. A turnover gave the Sioux the ball on about the 45, a single long bomb to Lueck brought us to the 5. Roland ran it in. 10-24 with about 11 mins remaining in the game. We're still taking penalties, giving up a lot of yards to the SDSU offense, the Jackrabbits are getting 1st downs pretty much at will. It doesn't look like SDSU is going do a Minnesota for us, but there's certainly plenty of time for UND to score 2 TDs; the big question is can the Sioux contain the Jacks offense? 17-24 6 mins remaining. The Sioux got an interception just as the Jacks seemed poised to score. UND drove down to the 10 and got stopped up. On a 4th and 10, Bowenkamp completed a pass to Ahlers.

Sigh. We were down 0-14 on the 1 yd line near the end of the 2nd, failed to put it in, took the field goal. The Sioux defense then pulled a Gopher and let SDSU march it back downfield in the last seconds of the 2nd for a half-time score of 3-21. According to the announcers, the Sioux are actually getting yards and moving the ball alright, just drawing stupid penalties, the turnover, and not finishing it off. It's time to see that amazing 2nd half Sioux D again if we want to have a prayer; fortunately we have been moving the ball so if we can start scoring, there's a chance. SDSU seems noticeably better at moving the ball than SCSU did, so it's going to be a lot tougher to pull out a comeback this week.