Thought I'd do a little comparison of these 2 teams down the stretch FWIW.
Hak kind of covered it during his Fargo Booster talk. Duluth knows they need to win this weekend, and probably win the Final Five to have a shot at the NCAA's. So they will likely be desperate. While those chances are very very slim, the Bulldogs still probably want to feel very good about their finish, which would mean a run in "the 5" and knocking off some teams, maybe even ending their season(s).
First, they can finish the Sioux. Revenge for having the Sioux rip away the McNaughton cup at the DECC. Eliminate the Sioux from this year's 5 and maybe end their season. Go to the 5, and maybe knock Bucky out of the tourney, and maybe someone else. A good way to end what has been a very frustrating season for the 'Dogs.
Sioux, on the other hand, know they need wins to make the NCAA's. Losing this weekend may end the whole thing. Too much uncertainty to accept losing in the first round. So the Sioux will not be looking past Duluth.
So how have these teams been doing down the stretch? I've compiled some numbers from each team's last 3 WCHA series. We can see how they compare, and see if there is any meaning to be had from them. I could have chosen to pick and choose some of the last few series in order to compare performance against more common opponents, but that required a bit more picking and choosing than just selecting the last 3 conference opponents. I was looking for recent performance trends in-conference, so that settled it.
Duluth's last 3 series: Tech, Denver, Wisconsin
Sioux last 3 series: AA, Wisconsin, SCSU
Let's start in:
GOAL
Reichmuth - last 6 games - .904 saves %. (150 of 166 shots) Range from .807 to .947
Parise - last 5 games - .939 saves %. (123 of 131 shots) Range from .833 to .963. (Parise has been named WCHA defensive player of the week the last 2 series. 1 shutout)
TEAM SCORING
Bulldogs = 209 shots for (average 30-35 per game)
Sioux = 185 shots for (average 28-31 per game)
Bulldogs = 20 goals for = 3.33 goals/game (10.45 shots/goal scored)
Sioux = 17 goals for = 2.83 goals/game (10.88 shots/goal scored)
Bulldogs = 20 goals 30 assists for 50 total points
Sioux = 17 goals 28 assists for 45 total points
TEAM DEFENSE
Bulldogs = 172 shots against (average 28.7 per game)
Sioux = 161 shots against (average 26.8 per game)
Bulldogs = 19 goals against = 3.16 goals/game (9.05 shots/goal allowed)
Sioux = 13 goals against = 2.16 goals/game (12.38 shots/goal allowed)
POWER PLAY
Bulldogs = 20% (6 for 30)
Sioux = 17% (5 for 29)
PENALTY KILL
Bulldogs = 62% (18 of 29 killed)
Sioux = 96% (27 of 28 killed)
WHO'S HOT?
Stapleton = 5-3-8
Hammond = 2-4-6
Peluso = 5-1-6
Schwabe = 1-4-5
Fuher = 1-5-6
Zajac = 2-3-5
WHO'S NOT?
Caig = 0-1-1
Brosz = 0-1-1
McMahon = 1-1-2 (no points last 5 games)
NOTES
The Sioux average about the same number of shots per game as Duluth gives up. So I say the Sioux will get at least 2 if not 3 goals per game. (28 shots x .904 saves% = 25.3 saves = 2.7 goals scored by the Sioux)
Bulldogs will need to put up 35 or more if Parise is on his game to win. (Using conservative numbers of shots and a conservative saves % below his recent average = 35 shots x .91 saves% = 31.85 saves = 3.15 goals scored by Duluth). Remember that Parise is on a .955 saves% over his last 4 games.....
Hakstol talked about the Massen-Canady-Fabian line being one of the best lines for the Sioux recently. In the last 4 games they have combined for a 2-4-6 line which doubled their combined point production for the whole year. Bina has contributed 4 assists on his own in the last 6 games.
KEYS FOR THE BULLDOGS
Move the puck, and throw rubber at the net. Clean up rebounds.
Don't give up odd man chances.
Answer Sioux goals quickly to keep the crowd out of the game
KEYS FOR THE SIOUX
Parise must continue his hot play
Offense must put up 30+ shots and create good chances (MCF line and Bina must continue effective play)
Maintain strong penalty killing
Sioux win in 3, every game 1 goal differential.