I posted this on USCHO. The long and the short of it is that Duncan should be a top ten Hobey finalist, but is doubtful to make the Hobey Hat Trick. Read on....
It seems like an interesting year for the Hobey race. It's very difficult to compare scoring leaders and goaltenders from different leagues without seeing them play every weekend. I wonder how much team success is or should be a factor in the Hobey Baker selection process. In other words, should players on winning teams who have played against difficult competition(sorted by RPI, for example) be given more consideration? With that in mind, here are the players from the top 10 teams in the RPI:
1. Minnesota: F Kyle Okposo (17-17-34) and D Alex Goligoski (9-23-32) have been talked up the most, although F Jay Bariball has 15-18-33; I think G Kellen Briggs (13-4-2 2.08 .920) and G Jeff Frazee (12-1-1 2.08 .913) split time too much for either to make the top ten, but the numbers for each are very good.
2. New Hampshire: G Kevin Regan (20-5-2 2.02 .934) is the top candidate here; F Trevor Smith (19-19-38) has an outside shot.
3. Notre Dame: G David Brown (24-4-3 1.66 .929) is the top candidate for the Irish; no one is talking about Erik Condra (13-26-39).
4. St. Cloud State: F Andreas Nodl (15-25-40) and F Andrew Gordon (19-20-39) are both in the running; G Bobby Goepfert (13-6-6 2.12 .929) has solid numbers but is probably on the outside looking in.
5: Clarkson: Lots of 30 point forwards here, with Nick Dodge (16-19-35) leading the pack; G David Leggio (19-5-5 2.19 .928) is a possibility.
6: Boston University: G John Curry (14-5-8 1.81 .936) has the stats to make the top ten; no forwards at the thirty point mark, although MacArthur and Higgins should get to 30.
7. Denver: F Brock Trotter (15-21-36) is the top candidate here; G Peter Mannino (8-4-1 2.00 .929) and Glenn Fisher (12-7-2 2.27 .922) won't get there.
8. North Dakota: F Ryan Duncan (24-19-43) should make it; F T.J. Oshie (10-23-33) and F Jonathan Toews (11-21-32) have the hype but not the numbers; G Phillipe Lamoureux (14-9-3 2.39 .907) won't be there.
9. Michigan: Is there room for F T.J. Hensick (16-37-53), F Kevin Porter (18-31-49), AND F Andrew Cogliano (20-21-41)? Probably not. Hensick and Porter are in. G Billy Sauer (21-11-1 2.93 .901) isn't a consideration.
10. Maine: F Josh Soares (18-17-35) and F Teddy Purcell (14-21-35) are close but not quite; G Ben Bishop (17-8-2 2.25 .918) is in the same boat.
Here's my list from those ten schools:
MN D Alex Goligoski (9-23-32)
SCSU F Andrew Gordon (19-20-39)
UND F Ryan Duncan (24-19-43)
UM F T.J. Hensick (16-37-53)
UM F Kevin Porter (18-31-49)
UNH G Kevin Regan (20-5-2 2.02 .934)
ND G David Brown (24-4-3 1.66 .929)
BU G John Curry (14-5-8 1.81 .936)
Note that I'm not suggesting that all of the 10 finalists come from the top ten teams in the RPI, just that most of them should and probably will. So I've got a couple of spots left for players like AFA F Eric Ehn (22-33-55), UNO F Scott Parse (23-27-50), or Miami F Nathan Davis (19-27-46). I will go with Ehn and Parse, based on points. Not sure what I would do with LSSU G Jeff Jakaitis (11-11-3 2.12 .938). I don't think I can add him to my list, despite leading the nation in save pct.
So, here's my list:
Duncan
Ehn
Goligoski
Gordon
Hensick
Parse
Porter
Brown
Curry
Regan
Sorry about the long post. Discuss.
Sioux18
