UND92,96

Yesterday's win marks the 5th time in 12 years that UND has advanced to at least the semi-finals. Obviously that's quite an accomplishment at any level and in any sport.

I have been to every game played at the Alerus, and can generally predict the crowd size within about 500. This is the second or third time that the actual size of the crowd was probably about 2000 more than the announced crowd. The other times being the UC-Davis game in 2001 and the NDSU game in 2003. I guarantee that there were more than 10,000 people there yesterday.

Pitt St. has a good offense, but their numbers are somewhat inflated due to the fact that most of the teams they play have poor defenses. Look at recent history, and how has the MIAA fared against the NCC in the playoffs? Not very well at all, including Pitt's losses at UND in 2001 and 2003. I think Pitt St. has to be favored, but only because they're at home. This will not be a blowout, and UND can definitely hold them in the 20's with a good defensive performance. The key is whether our offense can do some damage against a Pitt defense that obviously can be scored upon (given up over 70 points in two playoff games this year). If the Sioux can force some turnovers, this is a winnable game. Dale Lennon isn't 10-2 in the playoffs by accident.

This was in the Herald today:

Congrats to Nick Mertens on being named player of the year in Minnesota by the A.P., and for leading EGF to its first ever state title! I have no idea how realistic UND's chances are of landing this kid, but he's one of the best local high school football players I've seen in a long time.

That list could be added to shortly. Rumor has it Heinitz at Augie may be hanging it up. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Mussman were interested in that job.

It's the northwest against the southwest in the semi's, and since in the southwest it's the 1 vs. 2 seeds (Pitt St. hosting NW Mo. St.), it's a guarantee that whomever wins between Pitt St. and NW Mo. St. will host the semi's since they will be seeded higher than either UND or Grand Valley St.

UND adds another men's recruit: link. He was apparently an AAU teammate of Andy Wills with the Howard Pulley team. Between signing these two, and Bo Powell being one of the Pulley coaches, hopefully this pipeline can continue as some very good players go through that program.

I took it as a positive that Sweeney didn't say on the sports last night that the game WOULD NOT be televised. I'm sure they're getting a lot of calls about it, so if it definitely wasn't going to happen, I think he'd have said as much to put the issue to rest. I suspect we'll hear one way or the other by tonight.

According to the Herald today, both Mettlach and the pro prospect o-lineman aren't expected to play. It sounded like Wayne Nelson got his info straight from the Tech coach. But of course, whether he's telling the truth or not is another question.

I wonder if this guy is getting his brain picked a little this week?

It looks like depth is going to be a problem for the women this year, particularly on the interior. Boese and Langen will be tough inside, although Langen needs to cut down on the fouls. But Glynn is just not strong enough to do much inside, and neither Draayer nor Sannes are apparently ready to contribute as neither played at all tonight. I think the Sioux may have a few more losses this year than we are accustomed to seeing, particularly on the road, but hopefully the younger players will progress as the year goes along, and by next season we should be back to being a serious national championship contender. Hopefully we can win all the home games and go about 4-2 on the road in the NCC, which will probably be enough to win the league.

St. John's averaged 7800 on the year, which would be pretty good for most dII programs, let alone a dIII. What is interesting about their attendance is that for their games against MIAC opponents within about one hour drive, they draw from 9400 to 10,400. But for teams a little farther away, such as Concordia, they draw in the 5000's. That tells me that they are probably the beneficiary of having a lot of opposing fans living in the twin cities come to several of their games (Gustavus, Bethel, St. Thomas, etc.), since in terms of importance, the Concordia game should have been one of their biggest crowds but obviously was not.

I would say it's the responsibility of the a.d. to make sure that there is a certain degree of marketing of a game--particularly a playoff game. If there are print, radio and t.v. ads and people still don't turn out, then of course the problems run deeper than the public simply being unaware that the game is taking place. In St. Cloud's case, it sounds as though there simply wasn't any marketing, and that has to be Kurtz's fault. At UND, there is a marketing coordinator. I'm not sure if SCSU has a similar position, but if not, then such a position needs to be in the athletic budget or the problem will never be solved. I have family in St. Cloud, so I am very familiar with the challenges that SCSU has in terms of lack of local television and competition from sports in the Twin Cities and St. John's--problems which we at UND do not have to face. However, while SCSU may never get to the point where they a) have a facility which can hold 10,000 to 13,000; and b) can average 9000 to 10,000 per game like UND can, it should certainly be a reastic goal to consistently sell-out a 4200 seat stadium. Perhaps with better marketing, and better yet, a new a.d., that can be achieved.

Would it be fair to say that the responsibility for the complete lack of promotion falls squarely on Kurtz's shoulders? I've heard some SCSU fans complain about him in the past, and I can definitely see why.

The qb apparently has at least a fairly serious knee injury, so my guess is that even if he does play, he's not going to be very mobile. Judging by their stats, they're a run-first offense as they are averaging something like 280 yards per game running and about 180 passing. UND has, of course, traditionally done very well against primarily running offenses, with the exception of UNO. Weather will probably be a big factor which will likely limit both teams' passing. I suspect this will be a low-scoring, defensive game, and UND thrives in that kind of situation. UND will almost certainly have a special teams edge, although yesterday was certainly not the special teams' best game by any means. Hopefully Tech will not be able to punt away from Dressler like St. Cloud did. My logic is this: I'm willing to bet anything that this year's Michigan Tech is not as good as last year's Grand Valley team, and we certainly weren't overmatched in that game. I think we're basically the same as last year--worse on offense but better on defense so those two basically cancel each other out. Playing on the road instead of a neutral site certainly plays a factor, but Michigan's Tech's complete lack of playoff experience and having either a hobbled or a very inexperienced quarterback negate that advantage somewhat. A close game favors UND because of the experience factor both in the playoffs and in close games. Now that the road playoff monkey is off our backs, I think the Sioux pull this one out by a score of somewhere in the neighborhood of 13-10.

Since nobody else has commented on it, I guess I will--congrats to the Sioux men for making it to the championship game of the Disney tournament! On paper, those were two pretty good teams UND defeated. The best thing is, the defense must have been far better than what it was in the two exhibition games. UND vs. Barry (Florida) for the title today at 5:00 cst.

Do you ever get tired of making predictions that turn out to be wrong? UND may not win, but if you think a team like Tech--with no playoff history, injury problems and coming off a lop-sided loss in their last game of the season--is going to pummel them, you have another thing coming. If the weather is really bad and the passing game is largely negated, I wouldn't want to be the team that has to make a living running the ball against this defense.

I don't mean to suggest that I'm writing anyone off. However, having followed UND women's basketball since Roebuck got here, it seems as though that in the vast majority of cases, the players who ended up being starters or at least meaningful contributors were playing extensively by their second year in the program, and in most cases in their first year. That's why I get concerned when players are still deep reserves in their second year (regardless of whether they red-shirted or not). If it's due to injury, then they should be cut some slack. But with new talent coming in every year, it generally doesn't get any easier to break into the lineup as time goes on. I don't think I'm going too far out on a limb by speculating that at least in the case of Kimbrough, she'll easily be playing significant minutes immediately, just as Langen, Boese, Boll, Crouse, Winger, etc. have done. Regarding the whole out-of-area issue, it's just a dollars and cents thing. Since a scholarship for somebody from Iowa or Illinois is far more expensive than one for somebody from ND or MN, and especially when there is such an abundance of quality girls basketball players in MN, a program like UND should probably be selective when recruiting these out-of-area players. IMO, if an out-of-area player is not going to make an impact on the court fairly early on, then it probably doesn't make much sense to sign them. With that said, I very much hope that Maffin and Werdell can be impact players at some point.

Kleinsasser made it as a sophomore, but not a freshman. According to the online NDSU media guide, Scott made it in 1996, which I believe was his sophomore year also (not sure whether he red-shirted). Technically, I suppose USD's Stefan Logan qualifies, but I would put a pretty big asterisk there since he was a 22-year-old freshman last season. I suppose the better question is when is the last time a true freshman of normal age (18 or 19) was selected first-team all-NCC? If it has happened recently, it was probably a punter or kicker.

UND lands seven first-teamers: Kuper (most valuable o-lineman), Anderson, Hermes, Gagner (most valuable d.b.), Manke, Glas and Dressler. Second teamers were Smith, Roland, Johnson, Duchscher, Peterson, Brandsted and Halfman. Lennon was also named co-coach of the year, along with Behrns. That's kind of a surprise considering the jobs the USD and Mankato coaches did. I wonder when the last time a true freshman made first-team all-conference?

Some of the media members must be absolutely clueless when you consider that somebody picked Mankato 6th, and somebody picked UMD 2nd! I have to think USD and St. Cloud were picked that high on reputation alone. With the talent UND has this year compared to everybody except Mankato and UNO, anything lower than 3rd will be a huge disappointment. Even 3rd would be a disappointment to me, but UND has had so much bad luck recently (Allen, Brandt, Austin's personal problems, last year's injuries, etc.) that it's hard to be too optimistic.