NDSU grad

Just wanted to follow up on this. 9 new hospital admissions yesterday. This is the lowest number of daily admissions since September 18. This is despite no significant decrease in daily cases. Like I said yesterday hopefully this trend continues.

Some potentially good news. Daily hospitalizations the past week are at their lowest point since the week of Oct 5-Oct 12, and there were 120 fewer daily admissions this past week than the week before. Hopefully this trend continues to relieve the strain on the hospital systems in the state.

There’s no way high school sports are a go on the 14th. The winter sports season is gone.

In case you don't want to read the article and enjoy playing around with numbers the guy's formula is: prevalence-ratio = 16 * (positivity-rate)^(0.5) + 2.5

Here's another article that proposes to estimate true number of infections. Disclaimer: If we use this dude's formula North Dakota would be at herd immunity. I think one fault in his model is he doesn't take into account the number of tests as a function of the total population. I think as testing rate increases the ratio of true infections/cases has to go down, regardless of what the positivity rate is. But that's just me.

Here's a pretty good link that explains the above. The only thing about this data is that the areas under the curve should be integrated to get an average of their true infection/case rate across time. That would give a much better indication of the total number of infections for a population at a given point in time.

It depends on the model you use to determine the true number of infections. I think you can conservatively estimate the true number of infections to be about 4X the number of cases, although some models put the number as high as 10x.

Same boat here. Except they won’t let my kids return to school with a negative test. But, like you, I’m not going to be a Karen and start ranting about it.

My brother just recently went through some health issues and had to be in a nursing home for about 6 weeks. Miraculously they didn't have any cases while he was in there but can definitely be scary.

https://www.kfyrtv.com/2020/11/03/reported-deaths-in-long-term-care-facilities-are-lower-than-last-year/

North Dakota deaths in long-term care facilities are down year to year through the month of August.

LOL. The important thing is there’s more than two choices for this race. I’m either going to write in a name or vote for Jo.

This isn’t a dichotomy. There’s other choices.

That's actually pretty good. 0.7% is pretty huge when you're talking numbers as large as U.S. GDP.

I'm thinking November will be similar, then we'll start to see downturn in cases and deaths as more North Dakotans are exposed.

Update on my Covid situation. Myself and both kids negative. Wife still with moderate cold symptoms but lessening. 14 year old daughter complained of a headache for two days and 11 year old son thought his legs were kind of achy for a night. I have no symptoms.

In addition to my previous post it’s estimated the pandemic of 1889-90 killed about 1 million people worldwide, slightly less than Covid deaths in the current pandemic. The global population in 1890 was 1.6 billion, compared to the 7.8 billion people who populate the globe today.

There’s no ‘solution’. Humans are now susceptible to 7 coronaviruses instead of 5. There was an interesting article from The Atlantic where epidemiologists looked at the genetic material of one of the seasonal coronaviruses known to infect humans. They dated some of the genetic mutations in that virus to the late 19th century. Coincidentally that corresponds to an epidemic in 1889 that had previously been attributed to influenza. Some epidemiologistS now attribute that epidemic to a ‘novel’ coronavirus.

Yep and if you want to get out of purgatory a day or two earlier you tell your contract tracer you developed symptoms a couple of days before your positive test, because then it reverts back to when your ‘symptoms’ first started developing. They don’t ask you any questions about your health when you test so you can make up anything to your contract tracer. If you test negative you’re screwed. Let that sink in. Your quarantine is the longest if you’re a completely healthy person who doesn’t have Covid.

Then you make up a date to tell your contract tracer you’ve developed symptoms. 10 days after that date you’re good to go.

It was easy for us. Mass testing event. Just had to fill out the registration forms. I was a little leery too but myself and the two kids were in and out in 15 minutes.

I’ll just add that if a kid is a close contact it makes sense to get them tested and hope for a positive so they can get back to school sooner.

Going through the same thing. Wife is positive and symptomatic. She can go back to work 10 says after first symptoms. I am asymptomatic and have to quarantine for 14 days + the 10 days after her first symptoms, hence the 24 days. I got tested yesterday and am hoping for a positive so I can start living my life sooner.

LOL. Odds are definitely in our favor. Wife has moderate cold symptoms and I am completely asymptomatic. I’m going to get tested tomorrow.

The wife popped a positive yesterday. There’s a testing event tomorrow. If I go and test positive I shorten my quarantine by about 12 days. Science.