NDSU grad
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Posts posted by NDSU grad
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35 minutes ago, UNDBIZ said:
7-day average positive rate has been falling for 2 weeks. 7-day average new positive cases has been falling for 1 week. Hospitalizations and deaths are trailing issues, but hospitalizations have started plateauing. In ND due to low total numbers, number of deaths can be highly dependent on the population infected, but those numbers should start to follow the downward trajectory in the next couple weeks barring a new outbreak across nursing homes.
Yep. It also seems cases have been affecting the 80+ demographic at about a 40% greater rate than the general population. This is presuming the age demographic data I found in the web is reliable, but it seemed logical. Presuming a large percentage of that demographic lives in long term facilities the 80+ crowd in North Dakota may reach some level of immunity faster than the general population.
You’d expect hospitalizations to lag but they seem to be falling somewhat with positivity rate. This may lead some credence to my theory that the elderly were getting infected at a greater rate than the general population. Next 10 days will be telling.
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3 minutes ago, Goon said:
Not getting hopes up until we have a pattern of downward movement.
If you believe the models that state actual infections are 4-6 times the true number of cases we’d be at about 39% of North Dakota’s population infected. That’s using the low end of the model projection. True herd immunity probably isn’t reached until you hit 70%, but I’ve read where 40% is where transmission will start to go down. I hope this is the case.
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3 minutes ago, Goon said:
Not getting hopes up until we have a pattern of downward movement.
Agreed.
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1 hour ago, Goon said:
Did I read this right? Down almost 400 cases.
That was yesterday’s numbers. Today’s are even better. Active cases below 9000. I think we may have plateaued in terms of active cases and hospitalizations, but probably need another 10 days or so of data.
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16 minutes ago, SiouxFan100 said:
Thanks NDSU I find this information helpful and hopeful.
Masks are helpful but certainly not the most critical in containing. Are folks willing to social distance at least?
This was fear about promoting from the get-go. That it was better than distancing. Every time I'd see 1000 people in a protest with masks on it would make me cringe. But the way mask-wearing was being promoted transmission would be impossible. It was so messed up.
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17 minutes ago, BarnWinterSportsEngelstad said:
So washing hands is not suggested to those who already had the virus?
What’s your obsession with hand-washing? All mitigation factors shouldn’t be weighted evenly. Distancing is responsible for about 95% of the mitigation. Mask-wearing about 4.9%, and washing hands about .1%.
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18 minutes ago, UNDlaw80 said:
I agree the Dems play politics as bad as anyone but, again, you don't screw with the transition.
There's something called the the Presidential Transition Act. It requires the outgoing administration to provide the president-elect with a classified summary of threats to national security, major military or covert operations, and more as soon as possible. Agencies also share info on background investigations for candidates for top national security positions. Another requirement is for the outgoing administration to host interagency emergency preparedness and response exercises.
That's just national security issues. There's a whole host of other things for other departments.
Trump is ****ing this all up.
Serious question. What’s the penalty for not complying?
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49 minutes ago, UNDBIZ said:
LOL
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Great news guys. Katie Couric is going to shed a light on the COVID situation in North Dakota. I can’t wait for this fair, balanced, data-driven take on the current situation.
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16 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said:
Since everyone laps up the info put out by the CDC let this soak in.....
Compared to 2019 mental health related visits are up 24% ages 5-11 and up 31% up ages 12-17......but that's "data and science" Burgum overlooked and Walz will too in a day or two.
...and if we are honest a good chuck of the blame goes on the teacher associations around this country.
I would add many public health officials to that list. Apparently they don't care about mental health, especially childrens'.
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27 minutes ago, TheFlop said:
Honest question, with the number of people in ND that have already had this, and currently have this, and that much of the extremely elderly/ sick already deceased, if there is any type of herd immunity associated with Covid shouldn't the state be getting pretty close to it?
There's been 65967 confirmed cases of Covid in North Dakota. There's many models that try to determine the number of true infections based on positivity rate and confirmed cases. Conservatively, you can probably multiply confirmed cases by 4 to get true infections. That would put North Dakota at 263,868 infections as of today. Thats' 34.7% of the population. About halfway there, but that doesn't mean daily infections doesn't start to drop before that. Also, it appears the 80+ demographic is getting infected at a greater rate than the general population in North Dakota, possibly due to long term care settings. I think this is why hospitalizations will continue their downward trend.
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20 minutes ago, UND1983 said:
Minnesota and Manitoba were doing so well.....wtf happened?
Mitigation efforts, particularly complete lockdowns, will keep case numbers down. But you have to keep those measures in place for perpetuity, or until a vaccine is developed. That’s just not a logical option. We’ve seen all across Europe, the east coast, and Israel what happens when strict mitigation measures are relaxed.
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7 minutes ago, UNDBIZ said:
I'm assuming Oxbow's number came from
What spreadsheet do they put out?
This is a screenshot of the dashboard. Click on the public data download button and it gives you all the raw numbers. The only thing is doesn't break down is deaths and hospitilazations by age, just cases.
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5 minutes ago, Hambone said:
Could it be one is date of death and the other is date the death is announced? I know that sometimes there's XX that is announced as deaths that day, but it can have deaths from weeks/months back included.
Possibly. The total deaths are the same.
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50 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said:
ND Covid today.....the good, the bad and the ugly.
The good: Active cases down 878. Hospitalizations down 28.
The bad: 26 deaths. 1091 new daily positives.
The ugly: Dougie still thinks suspending HS sports/organized youth team sports is the answer when yet again today over 50% of the 1091 new positives were between 20-49.
Looking at the spreadsheet the NDDOH puts out there was 5 deaths attributed to COVID yesterday. I wonder where the discrepancy comes from. All the other numbers match up with what you posted.
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19 hours ago, NDSU grad said:
Some potentially good news. Daily hospitalizations the past week are at their lowest point since the week of Oct 5-Oct 12, and there were 120 fewer daily admissions this past week than the week before. Hopefully this trend continues to relieve the strain on the hospital systems in the state.
Just wanted to follow up on this. 9 new hospital admissions yesterday. This is the lowest number of daily admissions since September 18. This is despite no significant decrease in daily cases. Like I said yesterday hopefully this trend continues.
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Some potentially good news. Daily hospitalizations the past week are at their lowest point since the week of Oct 5-Oct 12, and there were 120 fewer daily admissions this past week than the week before. Hopefully this trend continues to relieve the strain on the hospital systems in the state.
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1 hour ago, Wilbur said:
Local high school hockey player I know had all sorts of opportunities to play juniors or midget hockey but stayed to play with his friends because having a season looked likely.
Kid may jump ship now and join a junior team, because what happens on December 14th when it gets pushed back again?
There’s no way high school sports are a go on the 14th. The winter sports season is gone.
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1 minute ago, NDSU grad said:
Here's another article that proposes to estimate true number of infections. Disclaimer: If we use this dude's formula North Dakota would be at herd immunity. I think one fault in his model is he doesn't take into account the number of tests as a function of the total population. I think as testing rate increases the ratio of true infections/cases has to go down, regardless of what the positivity rate is. But that's just me.
In case you don't want to read the article and enjoy playing around with numbers the guy's formula is:
prevalence-ratio = 16 * (positivity-rate)^(0.5) + 2.5
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Here's another article that proposes to estimate true number of infections. Disclaimer: If we use this dude's formula North Dakota would be at herd immunity. I think one fault in his model is he doesn't take into account the number of tests as a function of the total population. I think as testing rate increases the ratio of true infections/cases has to go down, regardless of what the positivity rate is. But that's just me.
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5 minutes ago, NDSU grad said:
It depends on the model you use to determine the true number of infections. I think you can conservatively estimate the true number of infections to be about 4X the number of cases, although some models put the number as high as 10x.
Here's a pretty good link that explains the above. The only thing about this data is that the areas under the curve should be integrated to get an average of their true infection/case rate across time. That would give a much better indication of the total number of infections for a population at a given point in time.
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18 minutes ago, dynato said:
I take you to be a smart guy so I'll pose a simple math problem to you. There are 800,000 people 65+ in Minnesota. If we let them all get covid, how many of them will die based on current mortality rates?
https://www.health.state.mn.us/diseases/coronavirus/stats/covidweekly44.pdf
It depends on the model you use to determine the true number of infections. I think you can conservatively estimate the true number of infections to be about 4X the number of cases, although some models put the number as high as 10x.
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27 minutes ago, homer said:
I’ve had two kids get tested, both negative. Doing the responsible thing by keeping them home from school and they need a test to return. Not going to be that parent that works against the school and they make the decision to shut it down. I think other parents agree and it’s worked. Kids are in session full time.
Others may be in the same boat where a test is needed to get back to work. Not everything is as reckless in ND as media wants us to believe and most people are pretty responsible and looking out for others.
Same boat here. Except they won’t let my kids return to school with a negative test. But, like you, I’m not going to be a Karen and start ranting about it.
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13 minutes ago, Wilbur said:
My 93 year old Grandma's nursing home has a wildfire Carona spread. Her and her husband both got it. Her husband beat it and she is too stubborn (Norwegian) to let herself be listed as a Carona death. She would haunt the hell out of her husband if she passed and he beat it.....
My brother just recently went through some health issues and had to be in a nursing home for about 6 weeks. Miraculously they didn't have any cases while he was in there but can definitely be scary.
2020 Dumpster Fire (Enter at your own risk)
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It’s a fair comment, but most public health officials have stated it would take about 3 weeks for those to have any effect. Biology is a better explanation.