Yeah, there are certainly a few NDHS kids at the end of every season who any unbiased fan or follower can clearly see wouldn’t gain much from coming back for another year. But as we know, the number who actually leave far exceeds that short list. I’d say roughly 4–6 players truly fit the bill, yet more like 30–45 leave every year. That’s quite the discrepancy. It really boils down to parents having some sort of contagious delusion that spending money to send their kids away early is going to get them to the next level. Or they enjoy being able to tell people their kid is off playing hockey somewhere else, indicating they were too good for the local hockey.
As we’ve seen and will continue to see, that very rarely pays off (if ever) for kids who aren’t already in that rare, special category. However, maybe I’m misunderstanding their final goals. If the goal is to play club hockey at Idaho State, D3, Junior Bs, or for a team like the Lake Region Royals, then maybe more of them consider the move + money spent a success than I realize.
I think all the programs should hire a statistician to present to these parents every year to help them understand the reality of the situation. With the continued growth of USA Hockey participation, and now the influx of more Canadian players (WHL, etc.) into NCAA D1 while the number of teams stays pretty flat, I don’t think most people realize that even the ultimate goal of playing D1 is going to continue becoming more and more rare. And honestly after the statistician presents, a psychiatrist wouldn’t hurt either, just to help them recognize that if their motivation is stronger than their kid’s motivation, it's not worth altering their lives over the pursuit. You can’t purchase more motivation, and you can't purchase your kid's way into each next level, no matter what any academy rep tells you.