dynato

https://bismarcktribune.com/news/local/health/positive-virus-tests-mount-after-north-dakota-plant-outbreak/article_f11a5390-de62-58b8-b3bc-efce9f4d36bd.html Nearly 900 total people work at LM Windpower. 424 tests were administered to infected workers and their family members. 110 positive cases were found. 52 tests do not have results. Only 1 hospitalized so far. A second mass testing event will be held next week in GF. Burgum is quoted saying he doesn't think an outbreak could have been prevented because it is a “highly contagious disease that is spread very easily" and clusters have popped up in places that have taken extreme precautions, such as nursing homes. The plant will remain closed for 14 days, employees will still be paid, and are told to remain at home to self quarantine.

That is where the argument for more widespread testing falls apart. My point was we want to say, with utmost confidence, that the infection rate is much, much larger than what is being reported. But in order to have that evidence/confidence, we need a significant increase in testing. A significant increase in testing of the masses is likely not achievable. Which leads us to the position we are in now: being hopeful that the infection rate is higher without any great proof that it is for the time being. If I were a government official, I would not know how to approach this mess besides only using concrete numbers that have been reported by medical professionals and waiting for the down-tick in hospitalizations to discuss the transition to opening up.

Oh great. Now the models are going to freak out. I thought ND was immune to exponential growth?

Daily, rapid testing, that shows if you have it currently, or in the past, would speed up the process to opening dramatically. There would be less guessing and more confidence in the Cases-> Hospitalizations -> deaths. The total cases would go up, hospitalizations would remain near the same, death rate would fall significantly. A better, conclusive argument for re-opening and isolating the sick and vulnerable is formed. Currently, people are simply guessing what the infection rate is beyond positive tests, which is not enough evidence to make a major change.

The IHME are projections based on assumptions and current data (within several days recent). The "maybe possible" bit about opening up has always been tacked on there, so do not get angry that you are finally getting around to reading the model in detail. This is why I said lobby your governor, because he makes the final call. They will only make the call if enough people with valid concerns pressure them. I said before that ND will be one of the last to get hit. LM Windpower just faced an outbreak and Altru is already worried about their capacity. If Grand Forks community members need to be shipped down to the Fargodome for care, the sentiment will likely change. This just in: Wyoming had zero covid deaths last year and zero covid deaths this year. This obviously can only mean one thing. They are immune to dying from the virus!

If 1 person infects 1.1 persons, the health care system reaches capacity in October If 1 person infects 1.2 persons, meaning out of five people, one person infects two and the rest one, the capacity is reached in July. If 1 person infects 1.3 persons, the capacity is reached in June. The margin is very, very small, which is why the government is being very careful. Every bit of social distancing helps, every lack of social distancing hurts. What we are doing now in ND is basic social distancing and banning large gatherings. This is helping, but there is still a lot of backlash obviously. People dont like change. The middle ground, due to civil unrest, will likely be facemasks required in public. However, if the public can't obey an order like that and cases/deaths skyrocket, we will be in a worse position than we started in. It would likely lead to a worse shutdown than we are currently facing.

Just like how 40 to 80% of the american population gets the flu in a typical year. It's not a stretch. COVID is just much, much more deadly in its current state. The widespread need for PPE and ventilators was highlighted. The government and many corporations jumped in to ensure our medical professionals have the supplies they need. This is exactly how it should have gone and was pretty much how it was reported. I doubt we are at the peak, but I also don't know a good metric to go by to represent a peak.

We are trying not to overwhelm the healthcare system all at once with cases, leading to even more unnecessary casualties. Preference will be given to the young, the old will be left to die. Thus, the goal is to social distance and slow the spread until hospital visits are at a manageable level or a vaccine/treatment is developed.

This thread is for conversations and arguments. Each are entertaining in their own right. Some of us have nothing better to do haha. I'm not trying to force people into thinking a certain way, but I am trying to be thought provoking. And others are being just as thought provoking, so I'm definitely not being ignored. Most of the people here are a part of this community in some way. It is easy to forget that there is a person behind every comment. Just like it is forget that all the deaths we are talking about are real people dying.

Careful on the aggression. I just want to have a conversation and comments like that take away from the chance of having a good one. We are all trying to figure this out and learn from one another

Here is the recent information you are looking for @UND1983

Do you think there's a magical way to go back and dissect bodies in the mass graves to determine a different primary cause of death? https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/10/831875297/burials-on-new-york-island-are-not-new-but-are-increasing-during-pandemic

Is that your smoking gun? No sources to describe what they meant, no evidence to suggest the impact of your claim drastically changes the status quo. How do you suggest we account for the thousands of deaths above the monthly norm? If you do not trust the number given by medical professionals and vetted by our government, what "number" do you believe is more realistic and why?

I'd think low percentages since this virus targets the elderly. My grandparents have told me they have signed a DNR and have already paid for their funerals and plots. I'm on standby as POA. Texting and facetime it is for the indefinite future. They have voted red their entire life for context since I know that matters.

Their worries are justified, they only have hospitalization rates from other impacted cities to go off of. The good news is if Altru becomes overwhelmed, they should be able to move the sick down to the Fargodome.

Funny you mention the Twin Cities in your counter argument. Minnesota has a lower ratio of cases/1M population than ND, despite MN having the 16th largest metropolitan population in the USA. ND has the 194th largest metropolitan population.

You are right, one size likely does not fit all in comparing one state to another. Tell me, why would a pandemic not wreak havoc on ND? Do you think ND is special, and that the virus will magically avoid impacting our major cities because the population is less than 110k people? What reasonable evidence do you have to suggest otherwise, when majority of our citizens are condensed to basically 5 cities?

ND has a positive testing increase of 46 people in a single day, that is a 12% increase. MN has a positive testing increase of 159 people in a single day, that is an 8% increase. ND is trending uppies and MN is trending downies. Models are adjusted similarly. Find a model that fits your assumptions about the future impact of the coronavirus and share it with us. Calling a model crap with no justifications other than you not fully understanding it is just silly. Most of the US government chose the IHME model for a reason, it obviously has some merit to it and is useful for them to make decisions. For me, the IHME is not a good model for total deaths because it forecasts zero deaths in July and August and assumes that appropriate measures are put in place to guard against the reintroduction of COVID-19 from another state or country. I see this as being irrational and completely unrealistic in the long term.

New York lost 1000 people to COVID today. They have lost 15,000 people in the past fourteen days. They are trending towards losing 30k/month until this settles down. IHME projects them to be at about 20k deaths total. New York typically faces 13k deaths a month in non-pandemic years. These are real people dying, significantly above and beyond what is normally experienced. They are not making people up and killing them off to inflate data. The death count is the death count. However, the combined mortality rate being experienced will absolutely be lower in the long run. NY data pulled from the CDC: https://wonder.cdc.gov/controller/datarequest/D76;jsessionid=0AA6FAD8D8CDC84E9029CC4B98BC9373 Was my answer about more people needing to die before I'm convinced not clear enough? On a serious note, I already proposed my action plan for ND. It surprisingly got crickets as a response.

It is almost as if social distancing, ie limiting people to people contact, somehow has an impact on how a virus spreads through a population. IDK yet though, more people need to die before I'm convinced of this absurd idea.

It is easier for most to reject stats and models outright than to spend 5 minutes to learn about where they are valid and where they are invalid. Models do not hide this information, they tell you these points of contention explicitly. If they don't, then it isn't a model, it is just conjecturing and guessing.

They set up a drive through testing site outside of LM Windpower after 9 employees tested positive. Anyone in the community who wanted to get tested could go, I assume it would be mostly co-workers and family members. No reports I've seen say every employee there was tested

"GRAND FORKS MAYOR URGES RESIDENTS TO STAY AT HOME AFTER COVID-19 HOT SPOT – 424 TESTS TAKEN TODAY" http://www.kroxam.com/2020/04/16/grand-forks-mayor-urges-residents-to-stay-at-home-after-covid-19-hot-spot-424-tests-taken-today/ Basically all from LM windpower

You forgot to mention the only reason they haven't released a COVID vaccine yet is because they haven't found the right strain of autism to put in with it

Not believing/trusting the numbers in this case means having a bias that the physical death count being reported by medical professionals is too high and that the death being experience by COVID should instead be reallocated to different categories as the primary source of death.