siouxnami Posted March 15, 2004 Share Posted March 15, 2004 On the USCHO website there is a tool to calculate Pairwise by making assumptions about how the conference tournments will finish up. I trust all you UND grads / students can find it with out the url (sorry SCCC fans). I have tried a number of combinations and not seen any possible scenario where UND is not the #1 team when everything finishes up. This is because it doesn't appear that Maine can win its comparison with BC. If that is the case I think the worst UND can do is finished tied with Maine and BC where as the RPI of UND would always be higher than that of BC and Maine. This of course will all be pointless when ND take the FF title on our way to the trifecta... On another note just the though of picking Minnesota to beat UND sent chills down my spine, even if it was hypothetical. Fortunately, this won't happen in the real world. Has anyone else tried this tool??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fanfromafar Posted March 16, 2004 Share Posted March 16, 2004 Just tried it. Unfortunately, under the following conditions and no bonus points, Maine would flip the comparison and be 1 overall, while the Sioux would be 2 all by themselves: WCHA Play-in #1: Colorado College defeats Alaska-Anchorage. WCHA Semifinal #2: Minnesota defeats Minnesota-Duluth. WCHA Semifinal #1: North Dakota defeats Colorado College. WCHA Championship game: Minnesota defeats North Dakota. WCHA Consolation game: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Colorado College. Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Sacred Heart defeats Holy Cross. Hockey East Semifinal #2: New Hampshire defeats Massachusetts. Hockey East Semifinal #1: Maine defeats Boston University. Hockey East Championship game: Maine defeats New Hampshire. ECAC Semifinal #2: Dartmouth defeats Harvard. ECAC Semifinal #1: Colgate defeats Clarkson. ECAC Championship game: Colgate defeats Dartmouth. ECAC Consolation game: Harvard defeats Clarkson. CCHA Play-in #2: Michigan State defeats Northern Michigan. CCHA Play-in #1: Notre Dame defeats Ohio State. CCHA Semifinal #2: Miami defeats Michigan State. CCHA Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Notre Dame. CCHA Championship game: Michigan defeats Miami. CCHA Consolation game: Notre Dame defeats Michigan State. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fanfromafar Posted March 16, 2004 Share Posted March 16, 2004 There are some other scenarios where UND can fall to 2, but I can't figure out a way to move them down to #3 without using bonus points which I don't know how to do properly. If the Sioux are #1 seed (2nd team overall) and Michigan does not win the CCHA tourney, it could lead to Umich falling far enough in the rankings where they would be the #2 seed in the regional, meaning the Sioux may have to play the Wolverines in Grand Rapids. Not the best matchup, but at least it wouldn't be at Yost. It would probably be best for UND if Maine losses and Michigan wins this weekend. Let UMD or MN go out to Grand Rapids and send the Sioux to the springs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiouxTupa Posted March 16, 2004 Share Posted March 16, 2004 I like how the only upset is UM-UND, which isn't exactly an upset. If UND plays their tournament game they will continue to win. UM will beat Duluth because right now Duluth is not playing well, actually ever since we beat them (again). If Reichmuth can find his jock again then maybe Duluth could beat MN. I had similar results, though, but with more upsets. Mass beating UNH, Maine of course winning that final. Colgate winning the ECAC. Michigan losing to Notre Dame and Miami winning the CCHA. UND of course wins the WCHA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiouxTupa Posted March 16, 2004 Share Posted March 16, 2004 In my tests I horribly abused the bonuses and got BC into the top spot and UND all the way to 3rd. This was contingent upon a .0025 bonus for road win, a .0005 bonus for neutral site, and a .00005 bonus for home win. These are ridiculously high bonuses, but even when UND wins the WCHA, if the NCAA uses numbers like these we won't get the #1 over all. I guarentee I have no idea how to properly use the numbers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farce poobah Posted March 16, 2004 Share Posted March 16, 2004 At this point, the only way UND falls to #3 is for the secret bonuses to be absolutely huge. Even with a worst case, we lose to UAA and then UMD, we still win the comparison with BC (unless the bonuses are large). What worries me more is the seeding. If CC makes it in, it would probably be as a #4 seed. So, either we play CC in the first round (some reward for being #1 or #2 overall!) or we head to Michigan. Neither is that appetizing. Hate to say it, but "go UAA". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southpaw Posted March 16, 2004 Share Posted March 16, 2004 k, i just tried to figure out what it would take for CC to make it there are so many things that can happen...if CC finishes at least 3rd, then they've got a half decent chance of making it I really hope UAA wins, just so UND ends up in the west Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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