Fighting Sioux 23
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Posts posted by Fighting Sioux 23
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27 minutes ago, jk said:
Without looking I was thinking goals from the defense may go up. You lose Tucker but everyone else, none of whom are defense-only mashers, matures. Then I looked and the numbers aren't as encouraging.
Goals from the defense last year: 19
Goals from the defense in 2015-16: 26
Hard to see doing much better than that group a few years ago.
Agreed. Wolanin scored 6 last season...that's a pretty good number for a defenseman, but maybe he pushes that to 7 next year.
Colton Poolman can increase his scoring. He had 2 last year, and can certainly put in 3-4.
Shaw is capable of 3-4, and Johnson and Peski (who combined for 0 goals) may be able to combine for 3-4 goals. That would put the returners at around 16-19 goals. I'm not sure what Bast's scoring production is, but freshmen blueliners typically struggle. I wouldn't expect much more than maybe a couple goals...so I would guess our d-corps combines for roughly what last year's blueliners put up.
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2 minutes ago, stoneySIOUX said:
I think these numbers are absolutely attainable for all of these players listed.
I think JJ and Rhett can be 12-14 goal guys. I think Hoff can put up 10 if he stays healthy. I think it's probably a stretch for Olson to hit 11 goals. In his three years at UND, he has 9 goals in over 90 games. I think 6 goals (what he put up in 2016-2017) may be his high end. As for Bowen and Yon, it wouldn't shock me if they improved that much, but I think 15 combined is more likely than 19 combined.
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1 minute ago, stoneySIOUX said:
JJ, Rhett, Hoff, Bowen, Olson, Yon will FOR SURE get us 30+ goals. Not even a doubt in my mind.
Well, not just scoring 30+ goals, but improving by 30+ goals. If they were to each average 5 additional goals from last season (and getting 30 extra), it would look like this:
JJ - 13 goals
Rhett - 13 goals
Hoff - 9 goals
Bowen - 11 goals
Olson - 11 goals
Yon - 8 goals.
That is certainly doable, and I would say if those players produced as such, we would be having a very, very good year next year.
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Looking at this a slightly different way...
Last season North Dakota scored 127 goals. They should do better defensively next season (allowed 104 goals last season), so if they can score the same number of goals (or slightly more), they should have a better record/seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Boeser, Jost, and Ausmus accounted for 34 goals. Pogo (12) and Poolman (7) accounted for another 19. If we lose Pogo and Poolman (as it sounds is likely) that means they need to replace 53 goals. It's unlikely that Gersich will score more than 21, and there is a decent chance he drops a bit..so say we need to replace 55-60 goals.
A good freshman season typically translates to about 8-12 goals. I believe Mismash and Kawaguchi are capable of those numbers, so let's say they combine for 20 goals. The remaining freshman may put up 4-5 goals apiece. For the sake of argument, let's say our incoming freshman class puts up 30 goals next season. So, we need 25-30 goals in improvement from the rest of the team to equal last season's goal totals. Who improves (and by how much) next season to equal last season's goal totals?
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11 minutes ago, sioux24/7 said:
Wilkie's potting 20 next year. Book it.
The next James Massen? One 15 goal season surrounded by 1-5 goal seasons. I'd take it.
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4 minutes ago, MafiaMan said:
Interesting scenarios - but I'm talking about a team scoring an empty-netter (presumably to go up 2 or 3 goals) and then winds up losing the game. Never saw it before 2009 and haven't seen it since!
Miami didn't score an empty netter in the 2009 Championship Game. IIRC, they scored 5x5 with about 4-5 minutes to go to take a 3-1 lead. Then BU scored twice with the goalie pulled to tie.
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2nd period is over.
2-1 North Dakota on goals by Wilkie and T. Poolman.
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North Dakota gets the PK.
SOG 17-8 North Dakota
2-1 UND with just under a minute to go in the 2nd.
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Penalty on Casey Johnson. Miami back to the powerplay.
3:14 left in the 2nd.
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Tucker Poolman...wow. What a goal.
2-1 North Dakota with 4:24 left in the 2nd.
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Woof...Peski with a terrible turnover, but Miami shoots it over the net.
6:00 left in the 2nd
1-1
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Olson had a great chance from the slot, but looked like he shot it right into Larkin's chest.
Still 1-1 with 12:35 left in the 2nd.
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Miami scores on the powerplay.
1-1 with 14:41 left in the 2nd.
Sherwood taps a rebound into a gaping net.
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Tripping on Poolman, and Miami will head to the Powerplay.
1-0 North Dakota. 16:00 left in the 2nd.
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Wilkie roofs one over Larkin's glove.
1-0 North Dakota with 17:00 left in the 2nd.
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5 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said:
For those way smarter than I am where will UND sit Pairwise if they split in Miami and win 2 of 3 in first round playoff series?
A split at Miami would probably keep UND roughly around where they are currently (i.e. the wrong side of the bubble). It would also likely lead to a road first round playoff series against St. Cloud, and winning 2 of 3 on the road (remember that winning on the road is weighted more heavily (and losing on the road has less of an effect) than winning at home), and my guess is North Dakota would be just on the right side of the bubble (i.e. around 13-14). It would still likely take winning at least 1 of 2 at the Frozen Faceoff, and not very many "upset" winners in the other conferences for North Dakota to get in the NCAA Tournament.
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16 minutes ago, scpa0305 said:
I never said they shouldn't check their effort levels. I'm saying the seasons not over. Posting the same posts over and over won't change anything. They are either going to figure it out here soon or they're not. This isn't a talent problem it's an effort problem.
Agreed. The Sioux have not been eliminated. They likely need to finish the season in one of two ways to make the NCAA Tournament:
1) Win the NCHC Tournament. Given how strong Denver and Minnesota Duluth are, coupled with the inconsistent play from North Dakota, this isn't likely. That being said, this team has the ability and talent level to make a run. Estimated probability: 5-10%.
2) Sweep Miami, Win First Round Series, Take 1 of 2 at the Frozen Faceoff. Miami has only won 9 games this season, but is probably a bit better than their record. As stated above, the Sioux have been inconsistent of late, and it was disappointing to see their effort level last night. I'm a little leery of the "backs against the wall" mentality as well, as this team should have been playing with their backs against the wall since at least the Western Michigan series, if not CC. That being said, I think there is probably a 50/50 shot at sweeping Miami. IF they sweep Miami, I think the team has a good chance to win a first round, best of three series at home. Say 75/25, and I would also like their chances of taking 1 of 2 at the Frozen Four, say again 75/25. Add that up, and I would say they have about a 30% chance of this scenario.
Total that, and I think the Sioux have about a 35-40% chance of making the NCAA Tournament. Not great odds, but better than the gloom and doom driven by some people here.
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Interesting stat, since Denver repeated as National Champions in 2004-2005, here is how the defending champion has performed the following season:
2005-2006: Denver - Missed NCAA Tournament
2006-2007: Wisconsin - Missed NCAA Tournament
2007-2008: Michigan State - Lost in Regional Final
2008-2009: Boston College - Missed NCAA Tournament
2009-2010: Boston University - Missed NCAA Tournament
2010-2011: Boston College - Lost First Round
2011-2012: Minnesota Duluth - Lost in Regional Final
2012-2013: Boston College - Lost First Round
2013-2014: Yale - Missed NCAA Tournament
2014-2015: Union - Missed NCAA Tournament
2015-2016: Providence - Lost in First Round
So, 6 out of the 11 defending national champions failed to make the NCAA Tournament. Of the 5 that did, 3 lost in the First Round, and no one made the Frozen Four.
I know we were all hopeful for a strong season culminating in Chicago, but recent history suggests that it is very difficult for defending champions to even make the NCAA Tournament, let alone making the Frozen Four. I'm still holding out hope that this team can sweep Miami, win a First Round series against St. Cloud and see what happens at the Frozen Faceoff; however, I'm not going to hold my breath. At least, if the Sioux fail spectacularly in the next two weekends, we can all re-watch last year's NCAA Tournament and relive what was truly an amazing season.
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6 minutes ago, Cratter said:
Well if you didn't play the team that won the conference tournament champion you just played the team that just beat the conference tournament champion.
There's no easy games.
Certainly not for North Dakota.
On the plus side, the Sioux are 23-7 in their opening NCAA Tournament games, including 10-3 under the current format.
Northeastern hasn't won an NCAA Tournament game since 1988.
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Just now, Cratter said:
Glad UND will most likely play one of the hottest teams in the country first round. Know where you stand right out of the gate.
In looking at some of the projected brackets, North Dakota may have to go through four conference tournament champions to win the national title (Northeastern - Hockey East; Michigan - Big Ten; St. Cloud State - NCHC; and Quinnipiac - ECAC). I'm not sure that has been done before.
For those who didn't care about the tough route and rely on the mantra that to be the best you have to beat the best...well, if the Sioux win the title this year, they will definitely be deserving.
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1 minute ago, TNF said:
This is what I came up with as well. So the big questions is if they flip Michigan and Denver for attendance.
I think that would be the only question. Lowell and BC can't be paired with BU or Notre Dame. PC can't be paired with Northeastern and Duluth can't be paired with SCSU or UND. No host issues. I wouldn't flip Michigan and Denver, but I think it would be better for North Dakota if they did.
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8 minutes ago, spook said:
Sioux. Vs northeastern
denver vs yale
in cincy
region of hell.
My guess:
Albany Regional:
(1) Quinnipiac v. (16) RIT
(8) Massachusetts Lowell v. (10) Yale
St. Paul Regional:
(2) St. Cloud State v. (15) Ferris State
(7) Michigan v. (9) Boston University
Cincinnati Regional:
(3) North Dakota v. (13) Northeastern
(6) Denver v. (12) Notre Dame
Worcester Regional:
(4) Providence v. (14) Minnesota Duluth
(5) Boston College v. (11) Harvard
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Just now, siouxbois10 said:
So it St. Cloud wins they will be sent to St. Paul but if they lose they go to cincy and we head to St. Paul?
Highly likely.
St. Cloud Wins. SCSU vs. Ferris State in St. Paul; North Dakota vs. Northeastern in Cincinnati
Minnesota Duluth Wins. North Dakota vs. Ferris State in St. Paul; SCSU vs. Northeastern in Cincinnati.
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31 minutes ago, geaux_sioux said:
Our team is young and seem to not handle going from low level opponents to high level ones well. That reared it's ugly head yesterday.
I don't think it's fair to equate Robert Morris (or Mankato for that matter) with CC or Western. Robert Morris is a high level opponent...they just aren't at the level of Northeastern. The Huskies might be playing the best hockey out of any team in the country.
University of North Dakota Hockey 2017-18 Season
in Men's Hockey
Posted
I think so too. Last season we allowed 3+ goals in 20 games and were 5-14-1 in those games. In other words, we were 16-2-2 when allowing 2 goals or less. I have to imagine our number of games allowing 3+ goals should decrease next season (for comparison, we only had 11 such games in 2015-2016, going 3-6-2). If we can reduce 3+ goals allowed games down to 12-14, that should equate to approximately 4-6 more wins assuming we can score roughly as many goals as last season.