Fighting Sioux 23
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Posts posted by Fighting Sioux 23
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32 minutes ago, Brett0909 said:Thank you for pulling together the history lesson. Certainly interesting and helpful to add some historical perspective when it’s easy to just dwell on the recent past.
The only thing I worry about is the (perceived) mentality from some that past success/cycles indicate future success. There are just as many historical programs that fade into history and don’t bounce back. Simply waiting for the cycle to work its way out or expecting we’ll just stay at the top because we always have been is a recipe for fading out of relevance. Holding for Sears and Blockbuster on line 1.
Programs generally have a catalyst that helps lead the cyclical upswing - new coach being one often talked about here (not saying I agree or it’s the only one). It obviously wasn’t easy to part with York, Lucia, Berenson, etc. but we’ve seen how that’s reinvigorated those programs. Every other program is fighting for every possible advantage, if UND doesn’t fight just as hard, possibly make some tough decisions, and be willing to deeply reflect on what needs to change in the postseason, what’s happened before may not matter…
I don't believe anyone was suggesting that UND should do nothing and simply wait for another championship. I also don't believe that UND is sitting on its hands waiting for the clock to strike 12 again. However, some historical perspective is necessary with a certain portion of our fanbase at the moment. Particularly those that point out Denver's current run as if that is what they've been doing for 75 years. They have not (and I did not even mention in my original post DU's 35-year wander through the desert before pulling a miracle in 2004).
I'd also challenge you on your assertion that there are "just as many" historical programs that fade into history and don't bounce back. Historically, that is untrue. The only programs that would come close to having faded away and not bounced back (at least, in my opinion) are LSSU and Maine. LSSU had one decade of greatness, and I would not consider them to be a "historical program." Maine gets closer to that status (about a 2 decade run of greatness, with two titles). But Maine has also now made significant investments in its program and finally made the tournament again. We will see how their program responds here in the next few seasons. Regardless, what makes a "historical program" is their ability to compete consistently over the course of time. Almost by definition, they do not "fade into history."
I'd also point out that BC (York), Minnesota (Lucia), and Michigan (Berenson), have won a grand total of 0 National Championships since departing with their legendary coaches. You could throw BU (Parker) in that mix as well.
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30 minutes ago, fightingsioux4life said:Green banners are what people remember in the long run. Whether or not that is healthy or positive is debatable. What is not debatable is that a program's national reputation and profile is closely linked to winning NCAA titles. When Denver wins 3 titles and we cannot even make the national semifinals during the same time period, that is detrimental to our program.
Bemidji State was thrilled winning the McNaughton Cup. Michigan Tech was thrilled winning the CCHA autobid. UND's ambitions and expectations are and should be much higher.
While green banners are obviously the "most" memorable seasons, they are certainly not the only seasons that we remember. I fondly remember the 1997-1998, 1998-1999, 2000-2001, 2003-2004, 2004-2005, 2007-2008, 2010-2011, 2014-2015, 2019-2020, and 2020-2021 runs. They didn't end with national titles, but they were great seasons.
Also, people are constantly bringing up Denver. No doubt the Pios are on a run. But they are quick to forget the Pios "awful" stretch between 2005 and 2016. 10 seasons. 0 National Titles. 0 Frozen Fours. 2 Regional Finals in 8 NCAA Tournaments (2-8 overall record). 2 missed NCAA Tournaments.
As others have said, these things are cyclical. Michigan had a historical run in the late '40s / early '50s (6 titles in 9 seasons). DU had a historical run in the late '50's / '60s. (5 titles in 12 seasons). Wisconsin had a historical run in the '70s / early 80's (4 titles in 11 seasons). BC had a historical run in the '00s / early '10s (4 titles in 12 seasons). DU may currently be in the midst of another historical run (which, I guess I'm defining as 4 titles in 12 or fewer seasons).
One of the unique things about North Dakota's history, is that we have not had such a historical run, but we have been the most consistent program in college hockey history. Our time atop the mountain will come again. And if history repeats itself, that time will likely be sooner than some of us believe.
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1 hour ago, Big A HG said:Who's to say they would have won a single tourney game in 2020? What if they lost in the first round with another "loaded" team...would that change your opinion any? They didn't play any games so it's entirely meaningless for both sides of the argument. As good as they were, that team was nowhere near as talented as the 2015-16 team, and that 15-16 team almost didn't make it past the national semifinal. The teams the following two years were plenty talented and only managed to beat AIC in the tourney. UND hasn't won a regional in seven seasons with or without teams talented enough to win a conference title. That natty was awesome, but is no longer recent memory. How many more patchwork teams do we have to bear witness to before more people realize that UND dragged their feet and wasted time for nothing?
I don't think you're remembering the 2019-2020 season very well. It was one of only four seasons in UND hockey history where the team had a .800 winning percentage or higher (1986-1987 (Gino - with a title), 1998-1999 (Blais - one and done), 2015-2016 (Berry - with a title), and 2019-2020 (Berry - with a ?)). Would they have won the title that season? Who knows. But they would have been the #1 overall seed, and I would have liked their chances against anyone. Berry did a great job that season.
You're also severely discounting the 2020-2021 season, and forgetting that UND (again, the #1 overall seed) played a rested Duluth squad and lost in 5OTs. If UND wins that game are you okay with Berry now?
2021-2022 wasn't terrible either. Another Penrose Cup (not the banner we all hope for, but a banner nonetheless). Another OT loss in the NCAAs (Berry has been particularly snakebitten in OT as a head coach, see season enders in 2017, 2018, 2021, 2022, and 2023)), but what I would consider an above-average season.
This past season was very frustrating, and a complete disappointment given the expectations coming into the season. If next season ends the same way, I agree that looking at other options should be considered. Until then, everybody here understands the point you've made over, and over, and over, and over, and over, and over, and over, and over, and over, and over, and over, and over again. Let's move on.
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Not that it really matters, but here are the facts about ages and the 2015-2016 North Dakota squad that played in the National Title game on the day of the championship (Canadian Players with an *):
Brock Boeser - 19
Drake Caggiula - 21*
Nick Schmaltz - 20
Troy Stecher - 22* (22nd birthday was the day of the Semifinal win over Denver)
Austin Poganski - 20
Tucker Poolman - 22
Bryn Chyzyk - 23*
Paul LaDue - 23
Rhett Gardner - 20*
Johnny Simonson - 22
Keaton Thompson - 20
Christian Wolanin - 21
Coltyn Sanderson - 24*
Shane Gersich - 19
Gage Ausmus - 20
Joel Janatuinen - 21
Trevor Olson - 22
Colton St. Clair - 23
Cam Johnson - 21
# of Canadians: 5 (26% of lineup)
Average Age of Canadians: 22
Average Age of Entire Team: 21 (7th youngest team in college hockey that season - 3 months younger than this year's Gopher squad)
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4 minutes ago, siouxforce19 said:
Better goal for Gaber would be surpassing 20 goals. Schlossman had that article on him today and it mentions only a handful of UND players in the last 10 years have even passed 20 goals.
Frattin had 36 in 2011, so he’s the last UND guy to pass 30, and obviously that team was pretty stacked.
Agreed. Since Frattin scored 36 in 2010-2011, here are the guys to pot 20+ in a season:
Brock Nelson (2011-2012) - 28
Brock Boeser (2015-2016) - 27
Danny Kristo (2012-2013) - 26
Drake Caggiula (2015-2016) - 25
Shane Gersich (2016-2017) - 21
Gaber definitely has the talent to join this group, and coupled with the influx of offensive prowess coming in this season, 20+ should definitely be the goal. But I would be perfectly fine with 30+. : p
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42 minutes ago, Wilbur said:
Was funny listening to the ESPN broadcast with "Bucci" (God they over say that.....cripes...) "Ohh yeah that Michigan team last year was basically a professional team playing in college".
The Miracle on Ice part 2? How on earth did a bunch of college kids playing for Denver beat that group of professionals?
Ehh, at one point "Bucci" was talking about how the Gophers played for the National Championship last season (despite the fact that he called the game between DU and Mankato just three months ago). Sadly, he is one of college hockey's biggest advocates at ESPN.
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39 minutes ago, Wilbur said:
If the Twins could have hit at all during this series they could have saved Duran for today instead of giving the Tigers the last guy in the pen today in Megill.
Instead in comes Megill and the rest is history. Much different at bats at the end and they scrape across a sweep.
Series win.....but have to sweep Detroit....have to.....
Basically every team is going to win 60 games, and every team is going to lose 60 games. The Twins are 5-1 against Detroit thus far this season. They have 13 more games against the Tigers. They probably will lose at least 2-3 more times. Take a deep breath...it's a long season. ; )
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4 hours ago, ksixpack said:
Well…in reality…
Spicer (at age 17 as a high school senior) had 7 points (2 goals 5 assists) in 13 games vs D1 college teams this year - pretty good college teams at that. USNDT record was 8-5 vs those pretty good college teams as well (including a shutout against our favorite team).
Spicer’s PPG average against D1 college teams this year was .54 which was better than 10 of the forwards we have returning...only 3 had better than .54 PPG; Gaber, Schmaltz, and Costantino...so there’s that
FWIW, I have him at 5 points (2g, 3a) in 14 games against D1 teams in exhibition games (.36 ppg / .14 gpg).
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7 hours ago, TheFlop said:
Think Berry or Hakstol would have been the same with a subpar facility like the old DECC? Look at Sandelins record once he got a decent facility to recruit to for more of an apples to apples comparison.
Yes. Kids commit to programs. While a Grade A facility doesn't hurt, I don't believe it really plays a huge factor in a kid's decision to play for a program. Look at a program like Denver. DU doesn't have Grade A facilities, but has always been in the mix since Gwoz took over that program. Heck, look at most of the recent national title winners outside of Duluth and North Dakota: Denver, Massachusetts, Providence, Union, Yale...even Boston College doesn't have that impressive of facilities.
Also, even after Amsoil, Sandy had some pretty lean years after the title in '11, including a losing season and a .500 season (North Dakota's last season at .500 or worse was under Blais in 2001-2002). It would be another 6 full years before the Bulldogs returned to the Frozen Four.
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Per the "analytics" draft charts, it was a win for the Vikings. New GM is an analytics guy. I'm guessing the guys they had the highest grades on were already gone, so may as well trade?
Also, letting Detroit move up to draft yet another first round WR named Williams was probably just too much to pass up. ; p
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7 hours ago, The Sicatoka said:
"Fighting Sioux 23" at USCHO has a monster formulaic they use.
This thread starts in 2017 and is current up to last week.
If you look at the first post of that thread, it has links to the prior threads (back when USCHO capped threads at 1000 posts). I've been posting the formula results over there since 2010.
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5 minutes ago, Dustin said:
I went even more in depth and took into account the times that teams played in the championship game, but ultimately lost (NCAA runner-up):
Denver - 12 championship games (9 titles), avg=5.9 years between championship game appearances, 31 year title game gap, 35 year title gap
Michigan - 12 championship games (9 titles), avg=6.2 years between championship game appearances, 19 year title game gap, 32 year title gap
North Dakota - 13 championship games (8 titles), avg=5.6 years between championship game appearances, 11 year title game gap, 17 year title gap
Wisconsin - 9 championship games (6 titles), avg=6.3 years between championship game appearances, 14 year title game gap, 17 year title gap (current streak)
Minnesota - 13 championship games (5 titles), avg=6.2 years between championship game appearances, 13 year title game gap, 23 year title gap
Boston College - 10 championship games (5 titles), avg=7.4 years between championship game appearances, 23 year title game gap, 52 year title gap
UMD - Doesn't count in my opinion, as they are not one of the elite programs throughout the history of the NCAA tournament, but a program not mentioned above...
Boston University - 11 championship games (5 titles), avg=6.7 years between championship game appearances, 17 year title game gap, 17 year title gap
I guess where I'm going with all this, North Dakota has been the most consistent college hockey program throughout the history of the NCAA tournament. Tied for most championship games played (13 appearances). Shortest average time between title game appearances (5.6 years). Shortest gap in title game appearances (11 years). Tied for shortest title gap (17 years). Not a decade has gone by without UND playing in a championship game. Only one decade resulted in no championships (1970s). No other program can boast that level of consistency.
Nice work, although I'm pretty sure Minnesota only has 12 championship game appearances.
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Well, it's official. Denver now has more National Championships than fans.
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Just now, SiouxFanatic said:
They won #8 the season after UND won #8. So just gotta hope that UND returns the favor and gets #9 next season!
FWIW, Denver and North Dakota tend to win titles in close proximity to one another.
1958 - Denver wins National Title.
1959 - North Dakota responds and captures the title.
1960 & 1961 - Denver goes back-to-back
1963 - North Dakota gets back on the board
1968 & 1969 - Denver goes back-to-back again.
------MEANINGFUL GAP-----
1980 - North Dakota gets third title.
1982 - North Dakota gets fourth title.
1987 - North Dakota ties it up with Denver, capturing its 5th title.
-----MEANINGFUL GAP-----
1997 - North Dakota finally goes ahead of DU, winning its 6th title.
2000 - North Dakota wins another, goes up 7-5.
2004 & 2005 - Denver goes back-to-back for a third time, and knots up the score at 7 apiece.
-----MEANINGFUL GAP-----
2016 - North Dakota edges back ahead of DU, capturing its 8th title
2017 - Denver storms back to tie it up at 8.
2022 - Denver sneaks ahead, winning its 9th title.
2023 - ????
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3 minutes ago, SiouxHawkGuy said:
Minn St on TV
Could be ocd but I thought it looked odd
Well, for football, ESPN usually uses "Michigan St."
I would imagine the same would be true for hockey.
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1 minute ago, bcblues said:
Go Cows!
Agreed. Ole, Ole Ole Ole, Ole...Ole!
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2 minutes ago, Dustin said:
And we thought our Natty drought was long - the Gophs just reached 20 years.
That's pretty common for them.
Took them 26 years to win their first. Then got 3 in a span of 6 seasons.
Then they had a drought of 23 years. Then won back-to-back.
Assuming this score holds, their current drought will reach 20 seasons.
In fact, of all the teams that have won more than 2 titles, all have had (or currently are on) droughts of at least 20+ years...with one exception. ; )
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3 minutes ago, jk said:
Awesome numbers. Thanks for crunching them.
Not a problem.
I also looked at Minnesota State's. It shows a stark contrast to their success before and after conference realignment:
Pre-Conference Realignment (2002-2013)
Average Finish: 26.55
Best Finish: 11th (2012-2013)
Worst Finish: 49th (2011-2012)
Made/Missed NCAA Tournament: 2/9
Post-Conference Realignment (2013-2022)
Average Finish: 8.55
Best Finish: 1st (2014-2015 and 2020-2021)
Worst Finish: 28th (2016-2017)
Made/Missed NCAA Tournament: 7/2
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To put UND's 6.35 average Pairwise finish into further perspective, here are the next highest teams:
Denver
Average Finish: 9.0
Best Finish: 1st (2016-2017)
Worst Finish: 26th (2020-2021) (non-Covid: 23rd (2013-2014))
Minnesota
Average Finish: 9.35
Best Finish: 1st (2006-2007 and 2013-2014)
Worst Finish: 24th (2009-2010)
Boston College
Average Finish: 9.45
Best Finish: 1st (2004-2005 and 2011-2012)
Worst Finish: 34th (2018-2019)
Michigan
Average Finish: 11.90
Best Finish: 1st (2007-2008 and 2021-2022)
Worst Finish: 37th (2016-2017)
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Also, for those interested, CHN has historical pairwise data back to 2002-2003. In that time frame, here is where we have finished:
2002-2003: 10th
2003-2004: 1st
2004-2005: 8th
2005-2006: 7th
2006-2007: 10th
2007-2008: 3rd
2008-2009: 8th
2009-2010: 5th
2010-2011: 2nd
2011-2012: 4th
2012-2013: 8th
2013-2014: 14th
2014-2015: 2nd
2015-2016: 3rd
2016-2017: 10th
2017-2018: 14th
2018-2019: 20th
2019-2020: 1st
2020-2021: 2nd*
2021-2022: 7th
The average finish in that 20-year timeframe was 6.95, or a #2 seed.
The breakdown by NCAA Tournament seed:
1 seed: 7 times (35%)
2 seed: 6 times (30%)
3 seed: 3 times (15%)
4 seed: 1 time (5%)
Missed Tournament: 2 times (10%)
No Tournament: 1 time (5%)
*As there was no intra-conference play in 2020-2021 due to Covid, the Pairwise results were likely inaccurate and not meaningful. The NCAA Selection Committee ultimately chose North Dakota as the #1 Overall Seed.
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11 minutes ago, Dustin said:
2018 and especially 2019 were sort of clunkers.
I would agree with your characterizations. Although, I would also note that, we finished 14th in the Pairwise in 2018 (4 teams "stole" bids). Most years we make the tournament in that position. We finished 20th in 2019, so we weren't really even a "bubble" team that year.
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1 hour ago, MafiaMan said:
IF Minnesota beats Minnesota State, then yes, I will cheer for them in the title game. I will not cheer for DU to win their 9th title before we get ours, and I will not cheer for Michigan to win their 10th title before we get there. It is really that simple.
The rivalry with Minnesota just doesn't mean much to me anymore. But hey, root against the Gophers all you want. I'll gladly join you next Thursday. I think we all can at least agree on that.
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1 minute ago, jk said:
To each their own.
Yep. Not sure why you were second-guessing my list of rooting interests in the Frozen Four to begin with. ; )
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1 minute ago, jk said:
I get that. Perhaps lost in my post was the idea that they are the odds on favorite for next year. Loaded roster and an ultra high end recruiting class.
Doesn't change the fact that I would rather have Minnesota win over Denver or Michigan. I hate Denver and do not want them winning #9 (and certainly not before we do). Likewise, I do not want Michigan winning #10 (and certainly not before we do), and I really do not want them to win the title this year based on the crap they pulled with Western.
The Gophers...I just don't really have that much hate left for them. Do I want them to win? No. Give me Mankato please. But, they are the clear (at least in my mind) second-best option of the teams in the Frozen Four this year.
Is History Repeating Itself?
in Men's Hockey
Posted
I try to provide a historical perspective when I feel people are overreacting. I hope the overreactions at this time next season are how many titles in a row will UND win.