Here's the sudo-reporter analysis of the upcoming UND-SCSU series.
If CC and DU split and UND can sweep SCSU, the Sioux would end the season in third place. Getting home ice and avoiding the Thursday play-in game at the Final Five should be UND's two primary goals at this point.
Now, some might think that getting 4 points this weekend at St. Cloud is practically mission impossible. But I don't think so, especially if Minnesota beats Michigan Tech on Friday. The Huskies would have little to play for on Saturday if the Gophers win Friday. The past three seasons, the Sioux are 3-1-2 at St. Cloud.
SCSU's sweep of the Gophers was impressive, but the Sioux did it, too. And the Sioux did it playing both games at Mariucci and with the Gophers having a 23-10 advantage in power plays. SCSU had a 12-10 advantage in power plays against Minnesota.
Since the Christmas break, UND is 11-2-2 (.781) and SCSU is 10-3-3 (.719) -- not much difference. However, the teams UND played during that stretch have a combined winning percentage of .542 while the teams SCSU played have a winning percentage of .514. So the Sioux have compiled a better record against tougher competition. And let's not forget that the Sioux were without Toews, Chorney and Lee for two games during that time and that Lamoureux wasn't 100 percent healthy. He now has three shutouts in his last 11 games.
In the last 16 games, UND has averaged 3.69 goals per game and given up 2.06, a 1.63 average margin of victory. SCSU has averaged 3.25 goals per game and given up 2.13 for a 1.12 average margin of victory. The Sioux hold the advantage, despite playing tougher competition.
Some have said that SCSU is a much better team than when the Sioux took 3 of 4 points from the Huskies at the Ralph Nov. 3-4, but that's not true. During the first half of the season, the Huskies were averaging 3.56 goals per game and giving up 2.13 for an average margin of victory 1.43. Defensively, SCSU is the same, but offensively, they've slipped.
When the Huskies visited the Ralph, Lamoureux was injured and didn't play (Grieco played great in the backup role, however). Toews had just returned after missing three and a half games with a shoulder injury and Oshie was playing with a broken thumb. SCSU's lineup then wasn't much different than it is now.
There is a HUGE contrast between the Sioux team that played the first 18 games of the season and the team that's played the last 16. Before Christmas, UND averaged 3.00 goals per game and gave up an average of 3.17 for a -.17 margin. In the second half of the season, UND's average margin of victory has improved by +1.8 while SCSU's has dropped by -.31.
Yes, I know that you can throw all the stats out the window this weekend. SCSU is a very good team and is playing very well. I don't expect anything to come easy for the Sioux in this series. But the Sioux shouldn't go to St. Cloud thinking that the Huskies are 10 feet tall because they swept the Gophers. What happens Friday night around the WCHA could have a great impact on what happens Saturday night in St. Cloud.