NDSU grad

What’s your obsession with hand-washing? All mitigation factors shouldn’t be weighted evenly. Distancing is responsible for about 95% of the mitigation. Mask-wearing about 4.9%, and washing hands about .1%.

Serious question. What’s the penalty for not complying?

LOL

Great news guys. Katie Couric is going to shed a light on the COVID situation in North Dakota. I can’t wait for this fair, balanced, data-driven take on the current situation.

I would add many public health officials to that list. Apparently they don't care about mental health, especially childrens'.

There's been 65967 confirmed cases of Covid in North Dakota. There's many models that try to determine the number of true infections based on positivity rate and confirmed cases. Conservatively, you can probably multiply confirmed cases by 4 to get true infections. That would put North Dakota at 263,868 infections as of today. Thats' 34.7% of the population. About halfway there, but that doesn't mean daily infections doesn't start to drop before that. Also, it appears the 80+ demographic is getting infected at a greater rate than the general population in North Dakota, possibly due to long term care settings. I think this is why hospitalizations will continue their downward trend.

Mitigation efforts, particularly complete lockdowns, will keep case numbers down. But you have to keep those measures in place for perpetuity, or until a vaccine is developed. That’s just not a logical option. We’ve seen all across Europe, the east coast, and Israel what happens when strict mitigation measures are relaxed.

This is a screenshot of the dashboard. Click on the public data download button and it gives you all the raw numbers. The only thing is doesn't break down is deaths and hospitilazations by age, just cases.

Possibly. The total deaths are the same.

Looking at the spreadsheet the NDDOH puts out there was 5 deaths attributed to COVID yesterday. I wonder where the discrepancy comes from. All the other numbers match up with what you posted.

Just wanted to follow up on this. 9 new hospital admissions yesterday. This is the lowest number of daily admissions since September 18. This is despite no significant decrease in daily cases. Like I said yesterday hopefully this trend continues.

Some potentially good news. Daily hospitalizations the past week are at their lowest point since the week of Oct 5-Oct 12, and there were 120 fewer daily admissions this past week than the week before. Hopefully this trend continues to relieve the strain on the hospital systems in the state.

There’s no way high school sports are a go on the 14th. The winter sports season is gone.

In case you don't want to read the article and enjoy playing around with numbers the guy's formula is: prevalence-ratio = 16 * (positivity-rate)^(0.5) + 2.5

Here's another article that proposes to estimate true number of infections. Disclaimer: If we use this dude's formula North Dakota would be at herd immunity. I think one fault in his model is he doesn't take into account the number of tests as a function of the total population. I think as testing rate increases the ratio of true infections/cases has to go down, regardless of what the positivity rate is. But that's just me.

Here's a pretty good link that explains the above. The only thing about this data is that the areas under the curve should be integrated to get an average of their true infection/case rate across time. That would give a much better indication of the total number of infections for a population at a given point in time.

It depends on the model you use to determine the true number of infections. I think you can conservatively estimate the true number of infections to be about 4X the number of cases, although some models put the number as high as 10x.

Same boat here. Except they won’t let my kids return to school with a negative test. But, like you, I’m not going to be a Karen and start ranting about it.

My brother just recently went through some health issues and had to be in a nursing home for about 6 weeks. Miraculously they didn't have any cases while he was in there but can definitely be scary.

https://www.kfyrtv.com/2020/11/03/reported-deaths-in-long-term-care-facilities-are-lower-than-last-year/

North Dakota deaths in long-term care facilities are down year to year through the month of August.

LOL. The important thing is there’s more than two choices for this race. I’m either going to write in a name or vote for Jo.

This isn’t a dichotomy. There’s other choices.

That's actually pretty good. 0.7% is pretty huge when you're talking numbers as large as U.S. GDP.

I'm thinking November will be similar, then we'll start to see downturn in cases and deaths as more North Dakotans are exposed.