sagard
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Posts posted by sagard
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Two HE teams played each other in the FF semis just two years ago at the X. If as many WCHA teams make the NCAAs as expected, there is no way all of them will be put into regionals in such a manner that two couldn't find their way to Boston. You most likely won't see a WCHA team in every regional but expect them it at least three.
A couple thoughts:
1. HE put two teams in the Frozen Four in '02 due to the restructuring of the tourney due to 9/11 considerations. To reach the Frozen Four UNH beat Cornell, and Maine beat Harvard, then BU. The Western draw was loaded with good teams in SCSU, Mich, Mich State, CC and of course the Gophers. I believe the Western teams were five of the top six PWR teams.
2. The NCAA could put UND, UM, UMD, and Mich in the western regionals. At that point I would consider it likely that the WCHA would place only one team in the Frozen Four. I hope it doesn't happen, but I've seen too many goofy draw to not think it is a possibility.
3. SCSU, UW, DU, CC are not Frozen Four material. If they get sent East they will get smoked.
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This would also make a mockery of the Final Five.
The Final Five format with an unbalanced regular season is a joke. I don't think Lucia would sit anyone, unless they were hurt.
I would.
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Sorry for not being a little more clear with the word "vulnerable". The Sioux are going to be the favorites whatever size the ice is, but I like the Gophers chances and other big ice teams like CC or UNH chances a lot better on a big sheet than on a regulation rink.
In the Gophers case, I'd give them a 50% chance of beating the Sioux in Colorado, but probably only a 30% - 40% chance in Boston. In CC or UNH's case, I'd give them around a 25% chance of beating the Sioux in the Colorado regional and 0% anywhere else.
I don't think the Gophers and UND will end up in Colorado together though, so it probably won't make a bit of difference about the Gophers chances against UND in Colorado.
UW's rink is listed as 200/97, vs. the regulation 200/85. UND has swept their road series on regulation ice. I'll hold off on drawing any further conclusions on UND's play on the big sheets until after the MSU series.
Last point, say the Gophers do finish fourth. UW or SCSU will have their hands full with AA or Denver as the #8 seed, so they could get "lucky" and still avoid the play in game.
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Last time I checked GF had the nicest hockey arena in the country. Contrary to your shallow beliefs, GF has alot of attraction - folks like can watch the game from the sports bar in the Mall of America.
Like sprig said, the NCAA doesn't care that much what people do outside of the rink during the Final Four. I'm sure GF in April would be nice. They care about MONEY!
REA can not sell anywhere near the same amount of tickets as can be sold in a NHL venue and that would limit revenue which is a horrible thing to the NCAA. The best hockey tourney in the best rink would be great, but it just isn't going to happen.
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One other thing I've whined about in the past is the need for the WCHA to either balance the schedule or move the play in game to the #4 seeds ice earlier in the week.
If the Gophers finish fourth by a point to UW the schedule will have played a big role. UW will played the top two (UND and UMD) in only four games and had their full eight against the cupcakes (MTU and MSU). The Gophers will have played only four with MTU and MSU and eight against UMD and UND.
Oh well, I think Lucia suggested this goofy schedule where UND/UM and UND/UW aren't guarenteed four with each other. Just seems wrong to me.
I'll go get my kleenex now.
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Right now I think UND and BC are the clear cut favorites, with UM, UMD, UMich and UMaine following fairly closely behind. Anyone outside of those six would be a complete and total shock in my opinion. In fact I'll be surprised if come tourney time anyone outside of those six teams wins a game against any of the six.
The one place I think the Sioux are vulnerable is if they play the Gophers or maybe CC (probably won't qualify) in the West regional. The Gopher forwards in particular were a lot more effective against the Sioux defense on the big sheet. That said, I don't think the NCAA will place the Gophers out west if either CC or DU makes the tourney.
As far as I can tell the Sioux are 2-3-1 on big ice, and 17-2-2 on regulation ice with their only losses coming to BC and SCSU who was playing incredibly well at the time. If the Sioux can dominate MSU in Mankato, that would go a long ways in proving to me they can play at elite levels on both sheet sizes.
Things I'd like for the Gophers:
1. Have Grant return full strength. He has been an incredible post season performer and I don't think the Gophers are a Frozen Four team without him.
2. Avoid the GR regional.
3. Do not play three games at the X. CC has tried the playing five games in nine days trick a couple of times and always comes up short in the quarter finals. If the Gophers end up playing three at the X, I would expect Lucia to sit Ballard, Harrington, Vanek, Riddle, and Koalska for the third place game.
Having the Sioux lose twice to Bucky really hurt the Gophers a lot. Time will tell if those points are the difference for third.
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Grank Forks can host the World Juniors but not the Frozen Four???
This is my point.
If Grand Forks promised enough money, they would get the Frozen Four. However, Grand Forks can not make the same financial commitments that the bigger venues are able to.
Grand Forks is getting the 2006 Regional and will continue to host regionals. I would not be surprised to see a somewhat consistant rotation for the Western regional alternating between Englested, Mariucci with either Omaha and Colorado getting into the mix every now and then.
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The Sioux was a bunch of 27 year old Canadians then, so the USA team wasn't a good fit.
Only kidding. Good question. I'm guessing there had to be some, the Sioux had a fantastic team in '79.
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IF they manage to climb over UMD, or are you saying UMD would be the #1 seed at Ann Arbor??
I think unless the Gophers win two games against UMD between now and the end of the Final Five, UMD will finish ahead of the Gophers in the PWR.
They will also likely finish ahead of Michigan, earning the #1 in GR.
Of course UMD could be tricking it, and lose six of eight. But I think they have a better chance of winning six of eight than losing six of eight.
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Not to mention the horrible sweep at the hands of DU in '97 to allow the Gophers to share the McNaughton.
I think the Final Five will give a good indication of how the Sioux will fare in the NCAA play. The '97 and '00 teams won the WCHA playoffs and the NCAA's, the incredible teams of '98 and '99 failed at both.
Of course the best indication of how the Sioux (and Gophers for that matter) will be how the NCAA bracket is drawn.
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I have maintained from back before Christmas that both the Sioux and the Gophers will be in Colorado Springs.
As much fun as it would be, I don't see it happening unless neither DU or CC qualifies for the tourney. I don't think the NCAA will place three WCHA teams in Colorado Springs.
I certainly could be wrong, DU could be shipped east and the Gophers and Sioux could go 1-2 in the West.
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INCH may have placed UND in Grand Rapids due to it being closer to Grand Forks than Colorado Springs. I don't think the NCAA will follow that rule to the letter due to it being a flying trip either way.
I didn't interpret those rankings to imply the Gophers got seeded higher than UND, because if they did Minneapolis is a lot closer to Grand Rapids. Even if the Gophers beat UND at the X and finish with a higher RPI than UND, UND would STILL likely win the comparison between the teams.
I think whoever gets the #1 West seed will have the inside track to the Frozen Four.
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A goal can be scored off a skate as long as the puck is not intentionally or deliberately deflected in. I didn't see a replay of Parise's waved-off goal, so I can't comment on how the puck got into the net.
I hate that rule. The refs have to make enough judgement calls, if they see it go off a skate and in, it should be no good. The players now are so slick, I won't ever believe that they "accidently" deflected it in.
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So where does Ziggy fit in to all this?
From an outsiders view, I'm guessing he won't see playing time until Brandt is gone. If he never gets better than J Parise, he will never see much ice.
Just think if UND and Sedevie too!
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I am not sure why folks seem to think that UofM is going to Collorado for sure I can actually see Minnesota going to Michigan or out east. Sounds like UofM fans are pleading that they don't get sent to Michigan. I am not so sure they want UofM to play UND either.
I didn't mean to imply I think the Gophers will be in Colorado. The only way I see it happening is if both DU and CC fail to qualify.
I'm guessing either UMD or the Gophers will get the last #1 seed and go to Grand Rapids. The other will be a #2 and will likely be in the Maine bracket. At this point I think UMD has the inside track, due to their early season sweep at Mariucci and the two comparison points it earned them.
If Michigan earns the final #1 seed, it is anyones guess as to whether UMD or the Gophs will be the #2 in GR.
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The Pairwise that is up there now is not the "real" Pairwise. I'm sure they will be able to tinker with the "bonus points" for quality wins to assure that BC, and Michigan get #1 seeds. Probably will do the same for the Gophs too.
The bonus points are added to a teams RPI, which is of course the most important component of PWR due to it's being the tie-breaker.
Here is a current breakdown of who will receive the RPI bonus:
Rk Team ---------- Quality Wins
Rk ---------------------- R N H
1 North Dakota ------ 0 0 1
2 Boston College ---- 1 2 0
3 Maine ---------------- 0 2 0
4 Minnesota ---------- 2 0 1
5 Michigan ------------ 0 0 0
6 Minnesota-Duluth - 0 0 0
7 Wisconsin ----------- 2 0 0
The Gophers and UW will lose one of there Quality Road wins when Mich State drops out of the top fifteen.
The only time that it could cost a team are comparisons between two teams who's RPI is very close, and the only separation in the comparison is in fact RPI.
So about your concerns, BC won't need any help to get a #1, Mich won't get any help, and the Gophers will get a little help. In the Gophers case, there RPI is quite strong and will remain strong so the bonus will not likely come into play for them.
UMD's RPI will get quite a boost the last four series. Unless the Gophers sweep, I think UMD will eventually win the comparison between the two teams. Of course, that would be a mixed blessing as it would likely send UMD to Grand Rapids as a #1.
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The Sioux will not start losing comparisons until their RPI drops down to the rest of the pack. To get a rough idea of where the Sioux RPI will be you need to examine the Sioux WP, OWP and OOWP.
Currently for the Sioux:
WP - 0.7593 The Sioux have to win 3 of four to maintain it. Take the worst case, say the Sioux go 7-5 through games played through the Final Five. Then Sioux WP would be 0.7051. Currently that would be good for 3rd in the nation. For either the Gophers or the Dogs to pass that, no more than one loss would be permitted for either team.
OWP - Currently 0.5806. Remaining WCHA opponents have a WP of 0.4557. This category will take a hit, but when the WCHA playoffs are finished the Sioux will still have a top five OWP.
OOWP - Won't change dramatically from it's current state.
My analysis is that barring a complete disaster, like 5-7 finish, the Sioux will be the highest ranked western team. If DU makes the tourney, and the Sioux and DU are the only WCHA teams in the Colorado regional the Sioux will be in Boston.
If DU fails to make the tourney and the Sioux and the Gophs are in Colorado, all bets are off. It would be the Gophers best chance to beat the Sioux.
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I'm out! I'll be completely behind the Gophs this weekend!
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GG you show no class appearing and gloating over a UW sweep, that actually hurts the Gophers more than it helps.
Take your lame game to USHCO.com, it will be welcome there.
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You all need to relax. This Sioux team will not fall into last years tricks. It is just a tough loss, happens to a lot of teams in Madison.
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Warroad and the privates should play midgets or have their own state tourney.
I'd rather see them and everyone in a single class tourney. The way it used to be.
Being from Minneapolis proper, it used to be a huge deal to make it to the regional semi-finals. The city teams didn't really have a chance going up against Kennedy and Jefferson, but it was an awesome place for hockey.
The old Met Center sold out numerous times for the regional tourneys, let alone all the other regional tourney's played across the state.
Oh well, March is coming! It is still the best time of year.
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Now I really want the Gophers sent East. Maybe FSA or one of the other Fox Sports will be able to show the games. Or do I simply not understand?
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Kinda surprised there was no mention of Lee.
They might not be able to per NCAA rules.
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It is amazing how the Sioux and the Gophers are picking up big chunks of their '05 recruits so soon. Even more so because they apparently are covetting the same kids.
The Sioux have:
Duncan, Lee, Chorney and likely Oshie.
Gophs have:
Bostrom, Frazee, and Stoa for '05 and Mueller for '06.
Using the Heisenburg recruiting page, MTU and UMD are the only other WCHA teams with more than one recruit or '05 verballed. Nationally Michigan has six and BC has four for '05 as well.
So much has changed since the Wooger would pick up players based on a good performance in the high school tourney.
Dogs and Gophers
in Men's Hockey
Posted
Wow is all I can say. I expected a split coming into the weekend, now I'll be thrilled if the Gophers manage a point.