sagard
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Posts posted by sagard
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(Pssst. It's "cycle". As in cycle the puck.)
I think he is referring to regrouping in the neutral zone and keeping puck possession vs. dumping the puck in and trusting your fore check to disrupt the other teams breakout.
When you are playing teams that either have defensemen who can consistantly gather the puck and beat the forecheck or a team who obstructs the forecheckers very well you often don't want to just turnover puck possession.
I don't subscribe to this being the primary reason UND has lost to BC the last few years, but I'd listen if someone claimed it was part of the problem.
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I have watched him in about half a dozen games and I wasn't as impressed. He had great games against the weaker teams at the World Juniors but in the big games against the better teams and in the games against the Sioux he wasn't much of a factor. Sorry but he is no Kane
I don't think he is in Kane's class either. But he really shouldn't be compared to a #1 overall pick initially when he will be lucky to be a top 10 pick. I think he is a PMB clone with hopefully a little more willingness to shoot.
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Who's that CC player with the neck tats?
I believe the Gophers are one trick pony. They have one exceptional, one very good, and one slightly above average player on their top line. After that they drop off significantly. That being said, I do not care to face them; especially on their home ice. It's a rivalry series and anyone can win anytime. I bet we win 7 outta 10 this year, but I don't like those odds with all the marbles on the table. We've ended their season way too many times of late...I am fearing that the favor will be returned before too long. Such is the rivalry between two exceptional programs.
Next point: It would be a travesty in my opinion if UMN or UMD get into the tournament ahead of CC. CC is a much better squad and is a dangerous team in one and done.
I think your right on about the Gophers, but are giving CC far too much credit. I'm sure they had a nice weekend at GF, but they have been pretty bad at times this year as well. Their series with UMD will knock someone out. UW is the team I fear may reach out and steal the WCHA autobid. They can play well at times and are only two wins from the NCAA if they make the Final Five. I'm really hoping to relive the '04 WCHA Finals. Have CC and UW get rolled in the 1st round. Gophers sneak by SCSU and DU setting up another classic with the Sioux in the Final. Yeah I'm still drinking the maroon kool-aid.
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Heck I still believe the Gophers can win it all, so sure the Sioux could win it easily as well.
The draw is crucial as always. Some years it opens up for a team. Some years it's brutal.
The teams I'd want to avoid until the Frozen Four are the ones mentioned, BU, UMich and ND.
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sagard, what are you doing here? Shouldn't you be over on www.twincities.com posting with the rest of your 'fans' who are calling for the heads of Lucia and Hill?
I'm pretty sure those are the same whiners that call for Hak's head every fall.
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so giving up 6 goals to a tech squad means your back?
Sometimes five goals vs. Tech just isn't enough to win.
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Would you put him there in place of Stoa? I put Stoa on First Team and both Eidsness and Schroeder on the Second. You can't justify both Stoa and Schroeder on the First for a 5th Place Team, can you?
I don't have a problem with it if the voters thought they were two of the three best forwards. It is hard for me to justify excluding players who excel despite playing for a less than stellar team. Going into the Tech series, Stoa/Schroeder were a combined +20. The rest of the Gophers were a combined -48.
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Not a bad choice between Eidsness and our guy.
I'd go with Eidsness for ROY and put Schroeder on 1st team all WCHA.
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"They" got to Hab-it.
No way. He takes no chances and won't even enter the land o' lakes.
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If the Gophers win their series against SCSU, even if it goes 3 games, they will be in the big dance regardless of their showing at the Final 5. NCAA stands to lose to much money if they can't figure out a way to get them in. Is it right? No. Will it happen? Definitely. Unfortunately, when is the last time that SCSU won a meaningful game? Never. So I don't expect them to put up much of fight against MN.
The majority of the tickets are already sold. The Gophers will make the tourney only with a series win vs. SCSU and a pair of wins at the X. There are some fluky ways PWR will let them in with a loss at the X to someone like Mankato or, but they won't get any favors from the selection committee.
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I'm going to ask what is probably a dumb question. Unlike most of you posting in this thread, I can't do any parlor tricks like statistical analysis or stuff mathematical so here's my question: Isn't there any way to freeze the value of a win or the detriment from a loss in these formulas? I mean, if you beat a team when that team is riding high (think UND's sweep of the Gophers before their nosedive) shouldn't those wins be worth more "points" for lack of a better word than someone else beating that team when that team is in the dumper?
That opens the door for subjectivity to play a role. So I wouldn't pursue it. Unless your considering a Saturday night win vs. UMD gets you an auto-entry.
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Sweep the dirty badgers.
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Most criticism of Lucia is fair game. He is signed through 2011-12. If I were a betting man I'd bet Lucia leaves the Gophers on his terms.
If for some reason Lucia was let go or couldn't complete his contract, you can bet the "U" would look closely at Blais. I believe they would have last time as well, but UND locked him up wisely.
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Club is great when bringing smaller kids as well. Bath room lines and smaller crowds really works. Less likely to run into belligerence in club level.
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Lets see the Goofs have been swept by MSU-M, UND, Wisconsin and C.C. I don't like your team's chances. The only team they have beat on a regular basis is SCSU and it's tought to beat a team 6 times in a season. Eventually that team will win.
How about you make sure the Sioux win the league and I'll make sure the Gophers meet them in the Friday night semi.
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Everyone is assuming the Gophers will be on the road in the first round. If they sweep this weekend, which I know is a huge if, but if that happens they will pass Duluth and they should pass St. Cloud as they are at Denver and then they would be in fifth. I'm certainly not predicting a sweep but stranger things have happened.
When dealing with the Gophers and CC for a potential first round matchup, I don't think home ice matters much. The games will be sloppy and eventually a mediocre team will prevail. Not sure what to think of UMD. Guess I'll know more after this weekend.
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that's right the key is to just get in:
2008-bc, 2 seed
2007-msu,3 seed
2006-wisc,1 seed
2005-du,1 seed
2004-du,2 seed
2003-minn, 1 seed
2002-minn,2 seed
2001-bc,1 seed
2000-UND, 2 seed
being a one seed doesn't seem to amount to much this decade. let's just get in.
In defense of the #1 seeds, the '00 Sioux and the '02 Gophers would have been number ones under today's sixteen team criteria. Making #1s six of the most recent nine.
That said I totally agree that making the tourney this year is a huge deal. I wouldn't count out UND, UW or even the Gophers (if they get their $@#$% together again) as NCAA champs.
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It seems that the Gophers have trouble keeping good goalies good in recent years. What's going on?
Our goalies have sucked for years and years and years.
Two exceptions.
1. Weber in the 1st period of the '03 Frozen Four vs. Michigan.
2. Kangas the second half of last year. He did have a rough stretch last year as well, but it didn't last as long as this current funk.
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Thanks Jim. Six of eight seems like an overwhelming tough task the way the Gophers have been playing. I sure like the regular seasons where the only question for the Gophers is whether they get a top seed far more than these past two. Worst comes to worst, there is always the WCHA tourney.
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It's nice to see the jersey returned. I'm guessing it's extremely valuable to both Morelli and to many collectors.
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Though true, I think the bolded statement is a little misleading. Given that RPI is just one component of the PWR, in which most teams are compared on 2-4 criteria, reordering teams slightly in any single criterion is only going to make minor movements in the PWR. However, if we truly believed that those changes didn't matter, why bother making them?
The effect of the reweighting is very easy to describe -- the new formula diminishes the importance of strength-of-schedule in favor of win percentage (a more detailed defense of that statement is in A quick look at the effects of the new RPI formula, which I wrote in the change's first season, Jan '07).
That further encourages teams like UND to make sure their out-of-conference matchups are winnable instead of against good opponents (an attribute already present in COP and, to some degree, TUC). While UND doesn't seem to have begun optimizing its PWR chances by scheduling boring games, the incentive to do so increased by weakening the SOS component of RPI.
I couldn't believe it when the formula changed and we got barely a whimper from the WCHA coaches or league. Maybe they didn't complain because they had no choice. As soon as UND/UW/UM miss the tourney due to a bad record vs. tough schedule it will be cupcake city. Or should I say double/triple helpings of cupcakes.
The new formula narrows the range of RPI. A typical win near the end of the season will benefit a team 0.0020 to 0.0050. They use RPI as the top tie-breaker when differences between two teams in RPI are often in the range of one win or fractions of win. This is stupid. If they are going to make an asinine formula for RPI, the lease could do is change the tie-break formula in PWR to H2H or make a new stat with record vs. top 10 in TUC.
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Rooting against Northeastern in the Beanpot is just plain mean. Of course it's real easy for me to say this with the Gophers having beaten them.
Your series vs. MSU should be a good one. Mankato should have a tough time scoring in at least one of the games. I'm guessing it's like the DU series. Sioux kill on Friday, play a nail biter Saturday.
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Wasn't it last year that there was some controversy over Wisconsin getting in the Madison regional instead of Mankato? I may be wrong, but I thought some felt it was due to attendance concerns ($$$) and both teams being 16th in the PWR?
It was only from a fairness standpoint. MSU had a better record, won the season series, and won the comparison vs. UW. Unfortunately they lost tight comparisons with ND, Princeton and NM, which allowed UW to jump up in PWR.
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There's still a lot of hockey left. They get AA at the John this weekend - I would say a 4pt weekend is a must for them to say the least. They also have the Final 5 in their backyard - and remember, they host the West Regional . . . and if comes down to UMtc or UND/UMD/etc making the tourney - guess who gets in.
PWR will decide who gets in like every year. The absolute most compelling reason to discount PWR and put CC (in the regional they would have hosted, I think you all remember it) into the field actually occured in 2004, but the NCAA went with straight PWR and CC stayed home.
If the Gophers don't make the top 12-14 in PWR, they won't be in no matter how much we pay the refs.
The Gophers need to hear the talk from the Don. Similar to last year they just aren't that great up front and need to make up for it with huge efforts in their own zone. Right now they aren't getting that effort. Last year they roughly nine periods with MSU where their NCAA lives were on the line, but managed to make the field thanks to Kangas. This years team is a potentially better than last years, but needs to come together and play all 200 feet every night from here out. The legs were willing both nights vs. UW, but the brains and goaltending wasn't where it needed to be.
(PWR) PairWise Rankings - 2009
in Men's Hockey
Posted
Gophers need to go 4-1 or better in my opinion to make it pretty much by merit. Some weird things could happen and they could miss at 4-1 or some stranger stuff could go down and put them in even with a with a series loss to SCSU.
We will have a pretty good idea before Final Five. Especially if the Gophers don't make it.