wxman... You had a decent post, but as a "skeptic" I have a bit of a problem with people who hold the warming position. It primarily has to do with the poor rhetoric and catastrophic scenarios that the "warming" side put forward which has so many on this board upset. The fact is that solutions that have been put forward (carbon tax, cap-and-trade, etc.) provide a nearly negligible impact while enacting a serious economic burden. The fact is that I haven't been sold on the fact that a warmer world is worse than a cooler one. Clearly, we want to have clean energy technology, but CO2 is far from a pollutant; especially compared to most industrial gasses which for the most part have been tremendously reduced over the past several decades.
I was happy to see that you are at least willing to talk about ocean cycles and solar irradiance, but you're totally downplaying solar irradiance's effect. Recorded data over the last 400 years has had solar irradiance at it's highest until this last decade. Actually, this cycle has been surprisingly inactive compared to the previous cycles. Also, do you have a source for the 40%+ number? One problem that I always have with this argument is that increased temperatures will cause CO2 to be released from oceans/streams/lakes. How much of the increase in CO2 is simply due to an increased temperature? I know that this is one of the proposed feedback loops, but if solar irradiance, ocean cycles, or something else is primarily responsible this greatly would downplay the anthropogenic argument.