A look at the Sioux- October 4th

[RD17]

Since I have to do all of the research anyway, I thought I'd give UND fans a weekly rundown of how I see things in the region that specifically effect the Sioux. There isn't enough room in my column (and it really wouldn't be appropriate considering that there are 35 other teams in the region for me to cover) but I can go into some more detail here.

-The last time I was this encouraged by a loss was in 2001 (the OT loss at home to UNO). Why? Because I thought if UND was going to lose to SCSU, the game would play out much differently (i.e., Matt Birkel would have a huge game and UND wouldn't be able to run the football). UND rushed for 175 yards to SCSU's 119 and was just a play or two away from winning the game. UND won the battle at the line of scrimmage for the most part and despite all of the mistakes, that is very encouraging.

I know it's a long ways off and not worth even thinking about at this point, but as a point of reference- if UND could get Bowenkamp back healthy and played SCSU again in the postseason (either home or away, wouldn't matter), I think the Sioux would win by 10 points.

-The biggest positive thing that happened in the region for UND is the fact that Western Washington lost. WWU had been 3-1 and with no games remaining on their schedule against teams with winning records, they were a real threat to run the table and "steal" a playoff spot. They now have two losses (one to a bad team) and it would take a miracle (i.e., most of the other top teams in the region finishing with at least 3 losses) for them to get in.

-I can almost guarantee that the GLIAC and NCC will share 5 of the 6 playoff spots. If UND can win the rest of its games, the chances are still very good that the Sioux capture one of the top two seeds in the region. Even with one more loss and an 8-2 record, I still think UND will get into the postseason without much trouble.

-I don't think I need to tell anyone what a big game this is with Ferris State. This is the way I'm looking at it- if UND can survive one more week without Bowenkamp and win this game, the next two (Duluth and Mankato) are games the Sioux can win with Ross Brennan under center. A win against Ferris would effectively buy three more weeks time to get John healthy and get him back in the lineup for tough games with UNO and USD and a push toward the playoffs.

-A breakdown on Ferris State:

1) Very talented defense- possibly the best UND will face all season long. Linebacker Kevin Myers and defensive tackle Whitney Bell are both All-American caliber players and the rest of the defense is fast and senior dominated. It's going to be tough to move the ball consistently on these guys. I do think though, that UND has the best offensive line Ferris has seen to this point and the Sioux will be able to run the football on them.

2) Inconsistent offense- the running back had a huge game last week, but there have been games against the better defenses they have faced where FSU has done nothing on the ground. I honestly don't think UND will have much trouble slowing down their run game. They have one real talented receiver and have been more productive since switching quarterbacks a few weeks ago, but the Bulldogs don't have an explosive offense by any means (23.3 points per game).

3) Without Bowenkamp, I think this will be a pretty tight, low scoring game. But UND should have a big advantage in special teams play and I think Roland will go for about 135 yards. The defense will shut down the FSU offense enough to win, 20-10.

Bob Eblen

D2football.com NW Region Columnist

[UND92,96]

I certainly agree that despite the loss, there were some very encouraging signs for the Sioux. Holding Birkel to under 4 yards per carry is pretty good, and especially the fact that he was almost completely negated in the second half. Also, holding Kaczor to 11-26 passing for a relatively modest 176 yards was also a good effort by the defense. Regardless of many yards the Ferris back had last week, I'd still bet anything that Birkel is the best back the Sioux will face this year by far. I would look for the UND defense to give up less than 100 yards on the ground this week, and win the game by a score of about 24-7.

[UND92,96]

According to the latest NCAA dII stats, UND is ranked in the top-5 in both total defense and scoring defense. That's pretty good, especially considering UND has already played arguably the two top offenses on its schedule--Delta St. and SCSU. With the running game doing quite well, if Belmore can get his completion percentage up to a consistent level of about 55%, or if Bowenkamp can come back at something approaching 100%, this team can still do some damage. I'm certainly not predicting a national title, but for anybody who wants to write off the Sioux due to one loss, keep in mind that 9 of the last 13 national champions had at least one regular season loss, obviously including UND in 2001, as well as Grand Valley State last season.

[UND92,96]

Bob-

I see in your column that you picked UND to finish 8-2. Can I assume you think UNO will be the second loss? Under normal circumstances, I couldn't really disagree with that since the Sioux have struggled to win in Omaha, but UNO seems to be really under-achieving this year. If they lose in St. Cloud as expected, and are then all but out of the playoff picture, I think the wind may be out of their sails by the time the UND-UNO game is played. If ever there was a year to play UNO in Omaha, this would appear to be it.

[RD17]

Bob-

I see in

[UND92,96]

I didn't really look at it like I'm assuming a team will lose a particular game. What I did in UND's case was I determined that 2 of the games should be easy wins, but the other three (although UND should be favored in each) are by no means sure things. I just felt that with the way the team is playing now (only a +2 in points through two NCC games) and three more tough opponents, the odds are they lose one.

I understand. I think the game on Saturday will go a long way towards determining how the season will play out. If the offense can put some things together and the Sioux can win by 2 or 3 scores, I like the chances of finishing 9-1. If UND struggles to win or even loses on Saturday, then 8-2 or 7-3 is about all we can expect.

What is interesting to me this year is that Lennon seems so much more reluctant to make a quarterback change than he was last year. Last year, regardless of whether Bowenkamp or Wilson was in, Lennon didn't seem to hesitate to pull the trigger and give the other guy a shot if the offense was struggling. Presumably, he felt that there wasn't a huge difference between the two quarterbacks. I realize that Manke has next to no experience, but by at least some accounts from people who see practice on a daily basis, there's very little difference between Belmore and Manke. So I have to wonder if it's simply a case of not wanting to hurt Belmore's confidence by sitting him down, or whether there's more of a difference between Belmore and Manke than what I've been led to believe? I tend to think it's the former. Lennon has really gone out of his way to deflect criticism from Belmore on radio and tv interviews, but he did say on the coaches' show last night that he had a heart-to-heart talk with Belmore this week about needing him to elevate his play.

[RD17]

What is interesting to me this year is that Lennon seems so much more reluctant to make a quarterback change than he was last year.  Last year, regardless of whether Bowenkamp or Wilson was in, Lennon didn't seem to hesitate to pull the trigger and give the other guy a shot if the offense was struggling.  Presumably, he felt that there wasn't a huge difference between the two quarterbacks.  I realize that Manke has next to no experience, but by at least some accounts from people who see practice on a daily basis, there's very little difference between Belmore and Manke.  So I have to wonder if it's simply a case of not wanting to hurt Belmore's confidence by sitting him down, or whether there's more of a difference between Belmore and Manke than what I've been led to believe?  I tend to think it's the former.  Lennon has really gone out of his way to deflect criticism from Belmore on radio and tv interviews, but he did say on the coaches' show last night that he had a heart-to-heart talk with Belmore this week about needing him to elevate his play.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think you're exactly right. Last year, there were two experienced quarterbacks that were confident players and knew their roles on the team- I think that makes it much easier to pull the trigger and make a switch if one of them is struggling. You don't have to worry near as much about shaking someone's confidence when they are 5th year players in the program.

I think the situation now is that Lennon decided to go with Belmore (for whatever reason, but I trust the coaches since they see them play every day ) and try to develop him knowing that there might be some growing pains. The way they're probably looking at it is- if we bench Belmore, his confidence will be shaken and there is no guarantee that Manke can do a better job at this point. If they stick with Belmore and just let him play through some mistakes, he will improve and the team will be better off in the long run than if they started going back and forth with Belmore and Manke.

I also think Lennon is deflecting criticism because he is not only the head coach, but also the QB coach and needs to show confidence in his players. I don't think anyone is beyond criticism, but obviously Lennon has shown that he is a good evaluator of talent and he is the one studying game films and stuff and seeing the mistakes that Belmore is making. I know I said earlier that I wasn't that impressed with Belmore, but if Lennon thinks having Belmore at QB is best for the team, I'm not going to argue with him.

[SiouxFan4Life]

I agree with you almost 10 percent. You need to play players that are being productive. North Dakota has never canned the season to develop one player, and we better not start. I wasnt sold on Belmore ever, he is too nervous.. He has never played in or won a big game...As appose to Manke, who might not be the perfect everything but he has moxy, and Detroit Lakes always plays in big games, and they have the rings to prove them. If a university didnt evaluate another player simply to save feelings, that university is headed down hill. I dont think thats the case here, I think the first half is the make or break half for Belmore. With Duluth and Mankato coming up, that would be enough time for Manke to get his feet wet, and confidence up. I honestly think Manke will ride out the rest of the season into Alabama.

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHH....another Manke proves to be clutch..............