I'm not sure if this is correct but CHN has UND's SOS at 15, Merrimack's at 26.
My take-
This game should be a slam dunk. Merrimack's 45% Corsi is 53rd in the country. They'll probably be on pace to have 15 shots on goal through two periods until its the third and the Sioux are blowing them out and then maybe they reach 20 in desperation. I think the most likely outcome is UND winning by 4, maybe two if they play loosey goosey, which they can afford to do against a team that should be going 3-5 minutes without a shot frequently throughout the game. Merrimack hasn't seen anything close to UND's team speed this year, Providence is basically their toughest opponent on the year (and having watched Providence a few times, they look slow and average to me). Plus I think Zellers is going to elevate and bury 3 over the weekend for no reason other than his panache.
Or maybe I'm completely wrong, and Merrimack's inability to cycle doesn't matter because they score every goal off the rush. Doesn't seem impossible since UND's gameplan the last two months has seemingly been to allow as many 2 on 1 chances as possible and for Jan to allow 1-2 softies for a total of 3-4 goals allowed on like 17 shots. Or most recently for KV to apparently be struck with amnesia and a musculoskeletal disorder all at once and singlehandedly cause 2-3 goals against, but I'm optimistic that was a one off. Unlike 2016, this team doesn't have 4 guaranteed shutdown never out of position defensemen--it doesn't even have one--and it doesn't have any forwards that are notably strong on D like Cagg or Schmaltz.
But this is a dream regional for UND and I think Smaby is going to scare them into playing decent enough off D to let the skill shine through.