None of the BG fans I've talked to think UND is going to be anything close to a cupcake. I think BG fans are optimistic about a win, but certainly not taking anything for granted or expecting an easy game. I think part of that is a respect for UND, and part of that is the uncertainty that comes with a coaching change and a LOT of turnover on offense. Last year in non-conference play BG beat Maryland & Purdue (scoring over 40 in both games), hung 30 points on Tennessee and were in that game until very late...and then lost 41-44 to Paxton Lynch's Memphis team. However, BG lost it's starting QB, RB, and two best WR's to graduation, early draft entry, or transfer (one of the WR's transferred to Alabama).
On the plus side, BG returns all of their starters on the OL and brings back their back-up RB from last year (Fred Coppet) who has a lot of game experience (bigger RB, tough to bring down). The new coach is from Texas Tech and will be keeping something similar to the fast-paced spread attack that the last coach (Dino Babers, formerly at Baylor, now at Syracuse) ran. The question marks are obviously centered around how quickly the offense picks up the changes to the new coaches system, and what will the drop off be at QB, RB, WR from the talented guys who finished their time at BG last year in those positions (I have to expect some, at least early in the season). BG got by last year by putting up a lot of points, so until we see similar production the jury is out on who this team can beat or by how much.
The defense returns, I think, 6 starters this year, so we're hoping for improvement there. I don't have stats to back it up but in my opinion BG hasn't stopped a team committed to running the ball since approximately 1907. So given UND's running game, I'm concerned. Obviously my 1907 statement was a joke (they've had some great defensive teams) but lately it's been all about whether BG can score enough points to counter their defensive slips. We're HOPING that the returning experience and new defensive coaches will step that up, but again, won't know until we see it on the field. I feel like last year some teams came out and tried to throw the ball thinking they had to keep pace, but then at some point realized "hey, we can just run it up the middle for 8 yards a play" and those are the teams that beat us.
So yeah, hard to say what this version of BGSU football will look like...there's a lot of reasons to hopeful and optimistic, but I think there's more unknowns than knowns right now. I'm seeing a close game, with UND controlling the clock but BG scoring on some big plays...could be one of those games where turnovers dictate the winner...I'm going be a homer and say BG 35, UND 28.
Anyway, sorry for the long post...looking forward to heading back to BG for this game, and hope to share some beers with UND fans who make the trip.