The REST of the season

[dagies]

Just my guesses, this is a prediction on regular season results for the WCHA

SCSU - 47 points

Denver - 47

MN - 40

CC - 35

ND - 33

WI - 31

MSU - 27

AA - 26

MT - 7

UMD - 7

AA is the one I'm most concerned about undervaluing.

[jk]

For the Sioux, 33 points would be 11-3 the rest of the way, added to the 5-8-1 current record to total 16-11-1.  That would be fabulous, but to reach it would require no more lapses.

Not that any of this would be easy, but I could see:

2-0 against UAA,

2-2 on the four-game trip to CC and Tech,

1-1 against MN,

3-1 against Tech and UMD, and

1-1 against Denver.

That would be 9-5, for a total of 14-13-1.  I still think that could get home ice.  I'll follow with more.

[jk]

Catching CC is possible, but for this discussion I could concede 4th and discuss the race for 5th.  The other contenders are:

WI:  Currently 6-5-1.  Needs to go 8-8 to reach 29 points.  Remaining schedule:  MN, at MSUM, SCSU, AA, at CC, Denver, at MN, UMD.

MSUM:  Currently 5-10-1.  Needs 9-3.  Plays at CC, Wisconsin, Tech, at AA, UMD, at Tech.

AA:  Currently 5-7-2.  Needs 8-5-1.  Plays at UND, MN, at UMD, at WI, MSUM, at SCSU, CC.

Wisconsin's not going .500 with that schedule.  MSUM has a relatively easy road, but 9-3 for a team that is really struggling might be asking too much.  AA also has a pretty difficult schedule, but it's pretty similar to the Sioux's.  

Assuming both UND and AA continue to play well, I think they might have the best shots at the 5-spot.  That makes this series very important.

Even though we've had our troubles in the playoffs with Wisconsin, I wouldn't mind hosting Sconny, getting a little payback for Madison this year, and ending Sauer's career.  Erasing the memory of the Mankato weekend would be nice as well.

[HKNTSMN]

Great Post that pretty much lays it out there for the fans to watch and the players to shoot for.

[dagies]

jk, that makes some sense.  How you lay it out does show MSM to be a potentially bigger factor.

You are right, at only 3 losses for the rest of the season I am putting quite a bit of pressure on the Sioux to come through.  We'll see how it all comes out.  Purely speculation at this point.  Fun to look at, and watch how it turns out.

[sprig]

I think UAA

[The Sicatoka]

In the 1997-1998 schedule, league games went from 32 to 28 per year. How many points has it taken to get home ice since then?

1997-1998: 30

1998-1999: 26

1999-2000: 31

2000-2001: 32

[Kuhninca]

It has been fun to see players like Massen and Canady begin to look confident and productive out there.  I'd have to say we've got all we can handle to finish 5th and get home ice.  If that happens, it will be a victory of sorts for this team.

Siembida seems to be the instant #1 goalie.  With this kid's talent, UND has a very bright future.  

Until UND can show better puck movement, however, they will not get too far.  Getting outshot 2-1 by teams like Minnesota will not do.

Go Sioux.

[Goon]

I think UAA  will be the team the Sioux need to get by for fifth. Sweeping CC again would give us a shot at fourth, but just can't see that happening.  

Sprig, you need to drink a few more beers and then close your eyes and blink, I actually think it can happen. I am not too impressed with what I saw of C.C.

[YaneA]

Boy, if you ain't the lead dog, the scenery never changes.

This is the first time in recent memory when the Sioux are not battling for the league championship.  I still have faith that the

boys have turned the corner and are now turnin' it on.  Can't wait to see Siembida in goal Friday.  The Anchorage series is crucial

but, from here on out, they all are.

We'll see what we see.

[YaneA]

You guys are so much better at this math stuff than I am.  I wouldn't trust my math skills to balance a piggy bank but isn't

it true that the Sioux could win this thing?  I'm asking if it's mathematically possible. The Sioux could win games while all the teams ahead of them are being swept (or splitting or taking only a point from the weekend).  The right combination of points taken by the Sioux vis a vis points lost out on by the teams ahead of us and... the sky is sure a pretty color in my world.  

[dagies]

YaneA, I don't know the numbers.  Suffice it to say I think if the Sioux swept out and the other teams all lost they could win it.  However, some teams have to win, where that breaking point is i don't know.  I doubt there is any real chance beyond mathematical, however.

[YaneA]

Oh, I don't think it's that great a chance either but a girl can dream, can't she?  I'm going to cling to that hope until somebody

tells me--and somebody would have to because I sure as #### couldn't figure it out myself--that the Sioux have been mathematically eliminated from contention for the top spot.  

[dagies]

Ok, this is getting way to complicated.  But if you make all the top 5 teams split against themselves in the final weeks of the season, and get swept by EVERYONE else (we know that can't happen) then you have

SCSU = 33

Denver = 34

MN = 26

CC = 21

WI = 23

UND = 39*

*If the Sioux swept out the remainder of the season

I figure the top teams need to split against each other because that keeps their point distributions as low as possible across their "board".

What can this tell us?

Very little.

[sprig]

Quote: from Goon on 10:56 am on Jan. 10, 2002

[Goon]

Sprig wrote that post at my hotel room the other night from my lap-top, I do see your logic sweep at home split on the road. I think we can sweep C.C. if we play good. I guess Owens is on the hot seat in C.C. already for being an under achieving team.

[Kuhninca]

Get real people!  There are only 7 weeks remaining in the season, and there is no freakin' way that the top 3 teams are going to get swept when playing the bottom teams.  UND ought to focus on home ice for the playoffs.  Winning the WCHA can be a goal next season.

Now, this weekend is VERY important for the Sioux.  They simply must establish some kind of home ice advantage, before the new REA becomes a liability.  This team has done very little to get the fans behind them at home.  It's about time.

Go Sioux.

[YaneA]

I know, I know, I know.  My point is that what the team should SHOOT FOR is something better than what they are likely to hit--, i.e., 5th place and home ice for the playoffs. Even that ranking is moot, however, if the Sioux don't take care of business in their own games.  That's really the only thing over which they have any measure of control.  

P.S.  Slumps happen, even to top 3 teams.

[Kuhninca]

Sorry, YaneA, I didn't mean to attack ya.

I do want to reiterate that UND needs to show that they give a rip about home ice pride, however.  The team has made great advances in the last month.  Now it is time to prove to the home fans that they can and will show up with intensity and focus in front of the 11,000 fans they seem to have taken for granted vs Mankato.  Thinking back on those two games still gets me angry!

Go Sioux.

[YaneA]

That Mankato series was the lowest point for not just the effort of the team but the support of the fans who started booing the Sioux   in the final moments.  Never saw that happen before, hope never to see it again.  I'm with you: home ice advantage should MEAN something.  

[jk]

To update where everyone stands:

(Team, GP, Pts)

3.  MN  14  18

4.  CC  16  17

5.  Wis 14  15

5.  AA   16  15

7.  MSU 18  13

8.  UND 16  12

When you see how close even third place is, those points lost to Wisconsin, Mankato and now UAA are even more painful.  Just splits in those three league series (the last with each of those teams) would have left the Sioux one point out of third.

There's a lot of hockey left to play and really not too many points needed to get in the top five, but the Sioux need to start picking up some points.

CC's schedule:  UND, Denver (hh), Wisconsin, at MN, at AA, Tech.

WI: at MSUM, SCSU, AA, at CC, Denver, at MN, UMD.

AA:  MN, at UMD, at WI, MSUM, at SCSU, CC.

MSUM: Wisconsin, Tech, at AA, UMD, at Tech.

UND:  at CC, at Tech, MN, Tech, at UMD, Denver

Go Sioux.

[Doc Nodak]

Obviously, it's a cliche; but at this stage the Sioux need to take it one game at a time. The focus now should really be on improvement and consistency, not on the standings.

The standings aren't going to change anything exept whether or not the Sioux have a home playoff series. As much as I want to see that, I'm not sure it matters much in the long run. What DOES matter is continued improvement.

[ZapPoke]

AGREE!  The most important game is the NEXT one.

Win Sioux or your fans will turn on you like a pack of wild dogs!

[jk]

Earlier this year, I posted somewhere:  "It's not about winning or losing right now, it's about getting better."

This deep into the season, while improvement is still the main goal, I think it's OK that results begin to become more of a focus.

[dagies]

This weekend pointed out the lunacy and idiocy of my having started this thread.  Look at what happened to St. Cloud, MN and the Sioux.

I should never have thought I could make any relevant predictions at all.

In addition, this Sioux team has not quite improved to the point I had thought, after the MN weekend.  Still has a ways to go.

The exact thought I had before reading this string was "back to game at a time" and let the end of the season work itself out.

I want home ice for the play-offs.  I want to see the Sioux at the FF.  But that will all happen if the team does what it needs to do.

For now, I'll just have to worry about the next game. (subject to change w/o notice )

Someone mentioned that the players read this board.  Ok, if anyone is reading, know this:

We fans are frustrated.  Probably not as much as you.  But we are still optimistic, and hope for good things to happen as the year goes on.  Still bleeding green.  Still believing.

Go kick some ass!