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2020 Dumpster Fire (Enter at your own risk)

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1 minute ago, wxman91 said:

Why am I required to wear clothes in public?

Covering sexual organs in a civilized society seems to be a good thing as to not expose minors to such things.

I can’t speak to the specific history of why modesty is written into our laws.
 

 

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28 minutes ago, CarpeRemote said:

Boy?
More shrill and less credible by the moment 

Why dont you just shut the hell up?  Lol.  

 

Cuz I sez so..  lol

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10 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said:

Again......masks? Where have the been? Simple question. Communicable airborne diseases have been around for how long? 

I wonder how a medical "professional" would get their license stripped for saying such anti mask nonsense? 

You'd think in the least there would be some ramifications?

Hmmmmmm?  

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3 minutes ago, Hayduke1 said:

I wonder how a medical "professional" would get their license stripped for saying such anti mask nonsense? 

You'd think in the least there would be some ramifications?

Hmmmmmm?  

I'm sure the St. Louis Circuit Attorney  would listen to your concerns on this matter.

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15 minutes ago, Bison06 said:

Covering sexual organs in a civilized society seems to be a good thing as to not expose minors to such things.

I can’t speak to the specific history of why modesty is written into our laws.
 

 

So, in other words, we are wearing something to protect others.  Does that align with personal freedom?

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3 minutes ago, wxman91 said:

So, in other words, we are wearing something to protect others.  Does that align with personal freedom?

Fair argument.

Where is the line in your mind then? And who is deciding what measures are taken?

Edit: I think it fair to note that many people fight for their right to dress or not dress the way they feel is appropriate. Minneapolis is currently in a fight with many women who feel they should be able to be topless in public.

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2 minutes ago, wxman91 said:

So, in other words, we are wearing something to protect others.  Does that align with personal freedom?

A child would still see your balls if they were more than six feet away from you.  It’s a terrible comparison

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13 minutes ago, Hayduke1 said:

Why dont you just shut the hell up?  Lol.  

 

Cuz I sez so..  lol

That’s it? 

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13 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said:

I'm sure the St. Louis Circuit Attorney  would listen to your concerns on this matter.

Thanks.  Yeah, I believe a really effing stupid medical professional would advise against wearing masks. 

Such a knuckle dragging moron would definately get in a whole sh#$pile of trouble. 

I doubt that person would have lied about their credentials just to make themselves the big man on a stupid message board though. 

Lololol.

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Here's some basic mathematical analysis, lest anyone wonder why I feel the way I do about masks:

CONSTANTS (per ND Dept of Health)

POSITIVE TESTS = 5126/135978 = 0.0377

ACTIVE INFECTIONS = 907/5126 = .177

MASK UTILIZATION (theoretical)

If XX percent of people wear a mask, your chances of encountering an unmasked individual at random are 100-XX in 100

i.e., 95% = 5 in 100 = 1 in 20 = .05, 85% = 15 in 100 = 1 in 6.67 = .15, and so on.

ASSUMPTIONS

1. Anyone who is "active" is shedding virus (doubtful, but I'll err on the side of extreme caution) = 0.177

2. Contraction subsequent to exposure occurs 1 in 4 times (likely very high, but haven't seen data) = 0.25

3. If you contract the virus, your odds of getting sick are the same as the overall positive rate in ND = 0.0377

2011229494_ScreenShot2020-07-20at5_29_38PM.thumb.png.b299e73197b12b3b0a0d1ee1134c812a.png

(Rate of encounter) X (ND positive rate) X (ND active case, i.e. shedding virus) X (Odds of getting infected) X (ND Positive rate) = your odds of getting sick 

I recently saw someone online say that 50% isn't 100%, but it's better than 0.  I tend to agree.

So, at 65%, which I think is fairly representative (if not conservative) of the number of people who are WILLINGLY (i.e., pre-mandates) wearing a mask in and around GF, your odds of getting sick from a random community encounter are about 1 in 45,000.  Pretty low, right?  And think, NO STRIFE over forcing anyone to do anything.  Free will is a powerful tool.

At 75% adoption, your odds are 1 in 63,000.  Better, but honestly, how much?

At 85%, 1 in 106,000.  Again, better.  But at what cost?  Civil harmony?  People just getting along?

At 95%, which is a pipe dream, you're at 1 in 318,000.  But you've divided friends, family, and neighbors, and burdened the community with enforcement to get to this point.

My thesis is that FIGHTING ABOUT MASKS is doing more societal harm than the virus itself, and that the quantifiable benefit of imposing masks on others does not result in significantly reduced risk to any person.  The variance in mask utilization from 65 to 95% is about the functional equivalent of adding or subtracting a ball (or a specific range of numbers) to the PowerBall drawing.  Yes, it changes the odds mathematically, but it doesn't change the fact that you are still extremely unlikely to win the jackpot.

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so cuomo says the covid got into the nursing homes from visitors most likely...NOT from Covid positive old people that WERE symptomatic that were forced into nursing homes...interesting take mr cuomo

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15 minutes ago, Bison06 said:

Fair argument.

Where is the line in your mind then? And who is deciding what measures are taken?

Edit: I think it fair to note that many people fight for their right to dress or not dress the way they feel is appropriate. Minneapolis is currently in a fight with many women who feel they should be able to be topless in public.

There is no good way to define a “line” as far as individual freedom vs common good.

However, thought exercise.  A year ago someone informs you that there would be a global pandemic and the government has declared that everyone should wear a mask in indoor public locations.  Would that have seemed all that strange?  No, you’d probably be concerned about how bad the pandemic is.

If the same person said that the government would be branding you with a bar code so that they could track immigration, you’d likely freak out.

There are clearly lines that can be crossed in terms of personal freedom.  But masks during a pandemic are so far on the “reasonable” side of the line it boggles my mind that we are even having this conversation.

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3 minutes ago, wxman91 said:

There is no good way to define a “line” as far as individual freedom vs common good.

However, thought exercise.  A year ago someone informs you that there would be a global pandemic and the government has declared that everyone should wear a mask in indoor public locations.  Would that have seemed all that strange?  No, you’d probably be concerned about how bad the pandemic is.

If the same person said that the government would be branding you with a bar code so that they could track immigration, you’d likely freak out.

There are clearly lines that can be crossed in terms of personal freedom.  But masks during a pandemic are so far on the “reasonable” side of the line it boggles my mind that we are even having this conversation.

So when will the mask mandate end?

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3 minutes ago, Bison06 said:

So when will the mask mandate end?

It would be great if we could get to a point where contract tracing was able to nail down most of the cases.  Just the fact that cases were low and steady was clearly not enough for AZ, FL, TX, et al.  I don’t know how far away ND is from that.  Clearly a very low population density has been a great help.

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5 minutes ago, Bison06 said:

So when will the mask mandate end?

Just like the lockdowns, this is the question no one can, or will, answer.

I think it pains most people greatly to admit that the people in charge are literally flying by the seat of their pants.  But they are.  If they weren't, they could point to the exact data point(s) that necessitated the measure, so that once we drop back below, the measure may be lifted.  That's science.  Objective, and pure.

Waiting until so-and-so says so, or decides that it feels right, is most certainly NOT science.

And it begs the next logical question...if masks are so important, why did Wal*Mart wait several days between announcement and implementation?  Why is Target waiting more than 10 days?  Why is Hugo's waiting 9 days?  These questions burn yet no one seems willing to talk about them.

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Just now, wxman91 said:

It would be great if we could get to a point where contract tracing was able to nail down most of the cases.  Just the fact that cases were low and steady was clearly not enough for AZ, FL, TX, et al.  I don’t know how far away ND is from that.  Clearly a very low population density has been a great help.

I think for most people objecting to the mask has nothing to do with the mask. It has to do with opening the door to the next “new normal”. 
We’ve already been lied to so many times during this pandemic that it isn’t hard to understand why there is a lack of trust when a public policy maker says “just trust us, this is only until the numbers come down” sounds eerily similar to “trust us and close your business so we can flatten the curve” which quickly became “trust us just stay closed longer, it’s worth it if it saves one life”. 
If somehow, it’s impossible, citizens could be absolutely guaranteed that the mask mandate doesn’t turn into something even more demanding or infringing, most people would be ok with it. But it’s the fear of what next when you start down this road that has most people drawing this line in the sand early. I for one, completely understand that mentality.

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45 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said:

I'm sure the St. Louis Circuit Attorney  would listen to your concerns on this matter.

A true medical professional knows the value in social distancing and masks.

 

If they do not, they need to choose another line of work. 

I wouldn't go near one that didnt believe in the science.  They are dangerous. 

And real effing stupid.

Lol 

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11 minutes ago, Hayduke1 said:

A true medical professional knows the value in social distancing and masks.

 

If they do not, they need to choose another line of work. 

I wouldn't go near one that didnt believe in the science.  They are dangerous. 

And real effing stupid.

Lol 

Nowhere did I say I'm anti mask. Do I think mask are the cure for coronavirus and cancer like many here.....no. Helpful in this pandemic situation.....yes. Do I shame people for wearing one or not wearing one....no. 

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8 minutes ago, Bison06 said:

I think for most people objecting to the mask has nothing to do with the mask. It has to do with opening the door to the next “new normal”. 
We’ve already been lied to so many times during this pandemic that it isn’t hard to understand why there is a lack of trust when a public policy maker says “just trust us, this is only until the numbers come down” sounds eerily similar to “trust us and close your business so we can flatten the curve” which quickly became “trust us just stay closed longer, it’s worth it if it saves one life”. 
If somehow, it’s impossible, citizens could be absolutely guaranteed that the mask mandate doesn’t turn into something even more demanding or infringing, most people would be ok with it. But it’s the fear of what next when you start down this road that has most people drawing this line in the sand early. I for one, completely understand that mentality.

And I don't understand it, as I stated above, because a mask mandate is a very reasonable response to a pandemic and not an infringement on personal liberty.

You keep talking about businesses being closed.  Can you give further examples?  And how do you separate the impact of the government-mandated closures, which were limited in time and the broader issue of people not wanting to go out and do things?

Here's an interesting example.  Restaurants in the states that opened early.  This isn't government mandates beyond May, this is the public choosing to stay home.

DinersJuly202020.PNG

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1 minute ago, wxman91 said:

And I don't understand it, as I stated above, because a mask mandate is a very reasonable response to a pandemic and not an infringement on personal liberty.

You keep talking about businesses being closed.  Can you give further examples?  And how do you separate the impact of the government-mandated closures, which were limited in time and the broader issue of people not wanting to go out and do things?

Here's an interesting example.  Restaurants in the states that opened early.  This isn't government mandates beyond May, this is the public choosing to stay home.

DinersJuly202020.PNG

I had four friends file bankruptcy in June due to their gyms being forced closed.

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2 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said:

Nowhere did I say I'm anti mask. Do I think is the cure for coronavirus and cancer like many here.....no. Helpful in this pandemic situation.....yes. Do I shame people for wearing one or not wearing one....no. 

Who says it's a cure, it is a way to slow the spread, possibly lower the cases until an actual vaccine or some preventative/ cure is found. 

Real medical professionals know this and advocate it. 

Others...well.. should reconsider their professions is probably the best recommendation for everyone. 

 

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1 minute ago, Bison06 said:

I had four friends file bankruptcy in June due to their gyms being forced closed.

Yup, bad business to be in during COVID.  As I mentioned earlier, I think there is a good case for a targeted rescue (bailout) of particularly hard hit small-business industries (bars, theaters, gyms).  Effectively, pay them to stay closed.

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40 minutes ago, NoiseInsideMyHead said:

Here's some basic mathematical analysis, lest anyone wonder why I feel the way I do about masks:

CONSTANTS (per ND Dept of Health)

POSITIVE TESTS = 5126/135978 = 0.0377

ACTIVE INFECTIONS = 907/5126 = .177

MASK UTILIZATION (theoretical)

If XX percent of people wear a mask, your chances of encountering an unmasked individual at random are 100-XX in 100

i.e., 95% = 5 in 100 = 1 in 20 = .05, 85% = 15 in 100 = 1 in 6.67 = .15, and so on.

ASSUMPTIONS

1. Anyone who is "active" is shedding virus (doubtful, but I'll err on the side of extreme caution) = 0.177

2. Contraction subsequent to exposure occurs 1 in 4 times (likely very high, but haven't seen data) = 0.25

3. If you contract the virus, your odds of getting sick are the same as the overall positive rate in ND = 0.0377

2011229494_ScreenShot2020-07-20at5_29_38PM.thumb.png.b299e73197b12b3b0a0d1ee1134c812a.png

(Rate of encounter) X (ND positive rate) X (ND active case, i.e. shedding virus) X (Odds of getting infected) X (ND Positive rate) = your odds of getting sick 

I recently saw someone online say that 50% isn't 100%, but it's better than 0.  I tend to agree.

So, at 65%, which I think is fairly representative (if not conservative) of the number of people who are WILLINGLY (i.e., pre-mandates) wearing a mask in and around GF, your odds of getting sick from a random community encounter are about 1 in 45,000.  Pretty low, right?  And think, NO STRIFE over forcing anyone to do anything.  Free will is a powerful tool.

At 75% adoption, your odds are 1 in 63,000.  Better, but honestly, how much?

At 85%, 1 in 106,000.  Again, better.  But at what cost?  Civil harmony?  People just getting along?

At 95%, which is a pipe dream, you're at 1 in 318,000.  But you've divided friends, family, and neighbors, and burdened the community with enforcement to get to this point.

My thesis is that FIGHTING ABOUT MASKS is doing more societal harm than the virus itself, and that the quantifiable benefit of imposing masks on others does not result in significantly reduced risk to any person.  The variance in mask utilization from 65 to 95% is about the functional equivalent of adding or subtracting a ball (or a specific range of numbers) to the PowerBall drawing.  Yes, it changes the odds mathematically, but it doesn't change the fact that you are still extremely unlikely to win the jackpot.

I'm trying to wrap my head around the rate of encounter metric.  Would the final definition then be the chance that you'd get COVID per encounter?

You do recognize that mask wearing is much more about transmitting than receiving the virus, right?

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4 minutes ago, Hayduke1 said:

Who says it's a cure, it is a way to slow the spread, possibly lower the cases until an actual vaccine or some preventative/ cure is found. 

Real medical professionals know this and advocate it. 

Others...well.. should reconsider their professions is probably the best recommendation for everyone. 

 

Where have I told people not to wear masks?  I do believe people can chose for themselves to wear a mask if they want to or not. 

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